Cubs acquire Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Gallagher, Patterson, Murton and Donaldson

[homer]

Oh......you can't just "Take away" starts from pitchers stats....doesn't quite work that way.

Agreed. But isn't that close to saying "He's better when he's healthy"?

[Fear The Chorizo]

You also can't "Add on" starts to pitchers stats when they can't stay healthy enough to pitch more than 10 starts in a row before heading to the DL.

[Schlitz001]

You could put together a valid argument that Harden is a better picther than Sabathia when healthy, but you can't do much to help you or your team if you're not healthy. You can't predict when/if a pitcher will get injured, but here is the average IP of Harden/Sheets/Sabathia since Harden put in his first "whole" season in 2004.

Harden 97 IP
Sheets 160 IP
Sabathia 207 IP

[Chio151]

Dang, dang. But really, we are shooting for the wild card and a NLCS against the Scrubs.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Don't expect an A's firesale, either. Beane made this kind of trade precisely because the A's are on the margins of legitimate contention this year. He could have waited and watched another Harden injury torpedo another A's season, or he could do what he did and thank his lucky stars that Harden has been healthy and effective long enough to draw interest and trade him now. Having decided to opt for the latter, he could have asked for low level prospects that wouldn't help for years, or fringe major leaguers still in their pre-arb years that would contribute to the 2008 A's chances of sneaking into the playoffs.

 

From Beane's perspective, I'm sure the A's playoff chances aren't substantially worse today than they were yesterday. And he's right about that -- BP had them at 42% coming in to today, and there's no way that any intelligent prognosticator would knock off more than 7% with Harden and Gaudin gone and Gallagher, Murton, and Patterson in.

[danzig6767]

The nice thing for the Cubs is that Harden isn't just a rental. Obviously Harden could get hurt at any point and next year, but with some luck, the Cubs get Harden for the playoff run this year and however many starts next year.

[Robideaux]

The reason this trade is so much better than the CC trade was that there really is little risk from the Cubs perspective. If Harden gets hurt, does it really torpedo their chances this year? No, none of the guys they gave up were starters for them right now. If he stays healthy, they just made themselves appreciatively better. The player with the biggest upside they gave up is Gallagher, and I doubt he ever is much better than a decent #3/4, if he ever gets that good.

[Chio151]

The reason this trade is so much better than the CC trade was that there really is little risk from the Cubs perspective. If Harden gets hurt, does it really torpedo their chances this year? No, none of the guys they gave up were starters for them right now. If he stays healthy, they just made themselves appreciatively better. The player with the biggest upside they gave up is Gallagher, and I doubt he ever is much better than a decent #3/4, if he ever gets that good.

 

Well sure, but if CC gets hurt it doesn't torpedo our chances either. We gave up no bigs.

[Robideaux]

Well sure, but if CC gets hurt it doesn't torpedo our chances either. We gave up no bigs.

Yes, but the Brewers gave up MUCH more in terms of talent for roughly equivalent pitchers, plus Harden is under contract for next year as well. The only reason the Brewers had to give up so much more is because Harden has the injury history/issues. The Cubs, I think, are pretty confident that they would make the playoffs even if Harden were to get hurt. I'm guessing that Melvin didn't feel the same, otherwise we way over payed.

 

[Tbadder]

This is the first I heard of the trade (just got home from work) and my impression is that this a good move for the Cubbies because the risk factor is so low. They had the division more or less won already even with the CC trade. But they'd be stupid to actually pitch Harden in July and August. They're only going to burn out his shoulder, and if they don't have Harden for the post-season, they will not break their curse.

 

The Crew on the other hand did over pay, but they overpaid for a workhorse. CC is gonna take the ball every time and he's gonna burn lots of innings. In the post-season the Brewers will be appreciably better than the Cubs.

[Postseason2006]

but the Brewers gave up MUCH more in terms of talent for roughly equivalent pitchers,

What is the "roughly equivalent" figured into? The fact he only goes 5 IP per game or he has pitched a max of 178 IP in one season, or the fact now he has to hit and may also get hurt that way?

[Hart Of Milwaukee]

Why do the Cubs always get ridiculously good deals. Gallagher is a good prospect, but in another organization there is no way he is that hyped up. Patterson and Murton will be lucky to mediocore mlbers at best and Donaldson is a pathetic 2nd round college catcher who is hitting .214 in low A ball.

[SeriesFinale]

Rotoworld doesn't seem as blown away

 

Cubs acquired RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin from the Oakland Athletics for RHP Sean Gallagher, OF Matt Murton, INF Eric Patterson and C Josh Donaldson.

 

The Cubs are looking to end a 100-year drought by acquiring a pitcher who can't stay healthy for more than 100 innings a year. Harden is 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts this season, and has 92 strikeouts in 77 innings, but he's going from one of the better pitcher's parks to one of the worst. He also hasn't pitched more than 50 innings in the last two seasons, so the Cubs will risk making Harden even more injury-prone (is that possible) if they expect him to pitch regularly over the rest of the season. It's not a huge haul for Oakland, but these injury concerns likely drove the price down.

His home-away splits do bear the Coliseum thing out somewhat. Harden's also been garbage in the post-season (C.C. hasn't been the greatest of shakes but he's been better than Harden)

 

Obviously if he Harden can do something he's never done before--stay this dominant and stay healthy for the year--it's a great deal for the Cubs. That strikes me as a big If, and if it happens, then the stars really have aligned for Chicago.

[Robideaux]

but the Brewers gave up MUCH more in terms of talent for roughly equivalent pitchers,

What is the "roughly equivalent" figured into?

Pitcher #1: 3.42 ERA 1.24 WHIP 8.69 K/9

Pitcher #2: 3.83 ERA 1.26 WHIP 7.45 K/9

 

Sure, one is more durable than the other and that is not minimal, but if you look at what they do when they actually pitch, they are "roughly equivalent" in terms of ability.

[Ennder]

nice trade for the Cubs if Harden can stay healthy until the playoffs. I don't think they were trading to make the playoffs, just to win in the playoffs.

[ELCABALLO45]

This is a steal for the Cubs, but if Harden does not stay healthy(He gets hurt more then Sheets) it wont be.

 

Sabathia is the better pitcher even when healthy, Harden pitched in the AL West which is very weak but he still is a great pitcher.

 

Game on

[rotoherb]

1) the Brewers didn't give up a lot more than the Cubs did. Gallagher is getting wayyyyy shortchanged by most people in this thread. I can only imagine how hyped up he would be around here if he put up those minor league in the Brewers system.

 

2) Harden has a $7 million club option for next season. Considering his injury risk, it's doubtful that the A's really wanted to pick that up. If the Cubs don't pick that up then they wouldn't get any compensation for him in the draft. As it is, he's not likely a class A free agent unless he can pitch a full season next year without getting hurt. Even then it would probably be close. It's no guarantee that the Cubs will pick up his option for next year, but considering that they have plenty of cash, they probably will do it.

 

If the A's were looking for a major league ready pitcher in return for Harden then the Brewers had no chance to get him anyway.

[Brew Man Dan]

I don't know if this was mention before, but I'm wondering what the brewers would have had to give up to equal what the Cubs gave up for Harden and would it have been worth it for the brewers. I'm thinking Villy + Gamel/Escobar would have been enough and I might have done it to.

[endaround]

Yep, people are ignoring the fact that if Beane wanted major league ready pitching with upside the Brewers just have none.

 

And the difference in innings is not small. Sabathia will pitch more innings before the All Star break than Harden has pitched since 2004 in a single season.

[istanbultaye]

Finding out that he has an option next year for only 9 mil makes me tilt this deal more in favor of the Cubs than I had before. I still don't think Melvin got fleeced in the Sabathia deal, but I think Beane should've worked the market for a couple days and seen if another team would offer more than what the Cubs did.

[SeriesFinale]

Dayn Perry's take. For what it's worth.

 

He thinks the Crew solidified their position to take the WC and the Cubs are in the driver's seat for the Division. He does think the Cubs are taking a risk relying on Harden's health and more Marquis starts, however.

 

That said, with Cedeno, Pie and Vitters still out there (I don't know who in this thread said the Cubs gave away all their top prospects...not the case), I wouldn't be shocked to see them take a stab at Maddux, Wolf or Burnett.

[jjfanec]

That said, with Cedeno, Pie and Vitters still out there (I don't know who in this thread said the Cubs gave away all their top prospects...not the case), I wouldn't be shocked to see them take a stab at Maddux, Wolf or Burnett.

I don't think the Cubs gave away all their prospects, but some of their top guys really are not performing all that well. Pie has struggled a lot in his call-ups. Veal has put up decent numbers but his secondary numbers aren't that great. Jeff Samardzija' numbers are not that great. Colvin has really struggled as well. Vitter's is young and has not really produced much. I don't really know much about how good Cedeno is, but that just does not seem like a ton to work with and that was their top 6 prospects. I think it could be enough to get the guys you said but boy would their system be depleted.

[BadgerFan]

What's the deal with Oakland? They're 4 games out of the wild card and they're already giving up?

 

Ugh, I hate the Cubs more than words can describe. Sadly, I doubt Hendry is done making moves.

 

Can we go after Brian Roberts and Brian Fuentes now???

[owbc]

I still considered the Cubs the favorite before this deal, but they are definitely the favorite to win the division now and possibly the World Series.

 

The Brewers/Cubs NLCS match up continues to loom. If that occurs, it is guaranteed to be either the best or worst week of my life, and nothing in between.

[twobrewers]

Well, we just have to trade for Jesus now....

 

Oakland must be really worried about Harden's health. But more importantly, so must every other GM. I am sure Beane didn't take the first offer the Cubs threw at him. The Brewers would have had a chance to beat that offer and apparently passed.