Chances of trading Jeff Suppan this offseason?

[kramnoj]

I don't know who becomes a free agent next year, but at 12.5 million for a guy like Soup I'd rather take some chances on conversions etc.

 

Here are the potential list of 2009 FA SP per Cot's.

 

Kris Bensen BAL

A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out)

Paul Byrd CLE

Ryan Dempster CHC

Jon Garland LAA

Tom Glavine ATL

Mike Hampton * ATL

Rich Harden * CHC

Orlando Hernandez NYM

Jason Jennings TEX

Randy Johnson ARZ

John Lackey * LAA

Esteban Loaiza CHW

Braden Looper STL

Derek Lowe LAD

Pedro Martinez NYM

Mike Mussina NYY

Jamie Moyer PHI

Mark Mulder * STL

Carl Pavano NYY

Brad Penny * LAD

Odalis Perez WAS

Oliver Perez NYM

Andy Pettitte NYY

Mark Prior SD

Horatio Ramirez KC

C.C. Sabathia MIL

Ben Sheets MIL

John Smoltz * ATL

Julian Tavarez ATL

Steve Trachsel BAL

Brett Tomko SD

Claudio Vargas MIL

Randy Wolf HOU

[hauser42]

Kram that list is horrible. Team is either going to have pay more than 12.5 mil for a guy or take a hell of lot less talented guy for about 5 -7 mil and get worse results.

[endaround]

Or use an in house option and get better results

[igor67]

Seriously I think you have to try and ride the euphoria of the year and resign both Ben and CC to Santana like contracts and then see where you can cut back at some other places. Premium starting pitching and young hitting talent is the mix for a lot of success.

[kramnoj]

Or use an in house option and get better results

Assuming the two aces leave for more money, do you feel comfortable with a rotation of Yo, Parra, Suppan, Bush, McClung and whatever is on our system? We don't know when Cap will be back or at what strength, I don't think Jeffress will be ready, maybe at midseason if he really progresses.

 

I think they offer $10-$12 million to a guy like Penny or Lowe and see if they can get them. I think they might actually get more money than that even, but if they do, it will probably be for another team. When you look at all the possible options, I think the Brewers best deal is to offer CC 5 years $100 million, put one or two option years at the end of $25 or $30 million based on IP. I would much rather pay him that money even if it means we lose Cameron and stick with Gwynn for a year than pay half that money to a low 2/3 pitcher.

 

Edit: I realized that I forgot to include Villenueva as an option for the rotation. He would presumably get a shot at the rotation again in ST, or at the least be available as an emergency starter. Still, a team likes to have 7 or so viable options at SP, and that gives you 6.

[Tbadder]

I just don't think the Crew can be competitive next year. That's okay. It's cyclical. We're one of the two best teams in the National now, and there's no way to keep that going. On the list I like Dempster best. He's got plenty of miles left on his arm, the league has a .325 SLG percent against him. If I could get him for 12.5 million I'd go. But there's now way that cuts it. He'll probably get 15 to 18 mil. I like some of the old dudes if they take 2 year contracts, giving us sometimes to find a new number 1/2. It really is a rock and a hard place they're gonna be between.

[endaround]

Penny is not leaving LA as a free agent-his option is only like $8m with a $2m buyout, there is no way LA doesn't pick it up. Lowe is old. Suppan and his VORP of 2.7 is right in line with predictions. He's just above replacement level right now and is predicted to get worse. If you can, you trade him and worry about finding a #5/6 starter somewhere else.

[interestobserver]

Suppan was never that good to begin with. He had a great playoff run in 06, but other than that was never anything special. No one wants to take on that contract, so the Brewers are probably stuck with him. At least he's not Zito.

[FVBrewerFan]

I just don't think the Crew can be competitive next year. That's okay. It's cyclical. We're one of the two best teams in the National now, and there's no way to keep that going.

On paper that appears to be true, but I'm not giving up that easily. Mark A. has clearly proven he will spend money if it makes sense. I fully expect him to go strong after Sabathia or Sheets. Then add Gallardo and Parra at the front of the rotation. That's not all that different from what we have now. Even if we lose both, I'm not ready to concede next season. Nobody expects the Cardinals, Twins, and Rays to compete for a playoff spot this year.

[logan82]

I never liked this signing and still don't. I always said we wouldn't want to trade him if he was doing well and wouldn't be able to trade him if he wasn't doing well. I know we paid market value, but we are not a team that should be doing much in the free agent market because "market value" doesn't get you good talent for your money. I say keep him for the duration of his contract unless we have somebody who absolutely should be starting. He fills out the rotation untill we can get somebody better.

[MNBrew]

I liked the Suppan signing originally but it sure looks like he can't sustain much success without the help of Dave Duncan. Given the dearth of crappy pitching the Cardinals had this off-season, I sure would think they'd be among the teams interested in Suppan next off-season even in spite of his salary. He's paid like a #2 starter and pitches like a #5 most of the time. Goodness knows the Brewers can get just as good a results if not better for a whole lot less money between Bush & McClung.

[igor67]

Here's an interesting target the Reds and Bronson Arroyo. The are getting freaked out by his ERA, but his K rate and K/BB are actually better this year than the three years previously! Predictably his batting average allowed has risen which is almost definitely random fluctuation. His HR rate has increased somewhat, but if you take him out of that park I bet that turns around real fast and you have a 200 inning pitcher with an ERA in the low to mid 4's. Ask for say Mike Lincoln and Arroyo for Suppan and see what happens.

[BrewCrewRising]

Here's an interesting target the Reds and Bronson Arroyo. The are getting freaked out by his ERA, but his K rate and K/BB are actually better this year than the three years previously! Predictably his batting average allowed has risen which is almost definitely random fluctuation. His HR rate has increased somewhat, but if you take him out of that park I bet that turns around real fast and you have a 200 inning pitcher with an ERA in the low to mid 4's. Ask for say Mike Lincoln and Arroyo for Suppan and see what happens.

If Walt Jockety couldn't find room in the St. Louis payroll to pay Suppan 11M a year, he won't find it in the Reds payroll either.

 

[igor67]

I do believe however that the Reds are already complaining about Arroyo salary and it's due to go up as well. So I think there's reason to believe that they'd love to rid themselves of perceived dead weight and get some kind of value. Who else are they going to be paying next year with Griffey and Dunn gone?

[Invader3K]

Is Arroyo any kind of upgrade over Suppan though?

[endaround]

Arroyo has been better than Suppan this year, ERA not withstanding (4.41 vs 4.93 FIP). He's also two years younger which makes his probability of a totally collapse over the next two years lower. That said he costs less over the next two season as compared to Suppan meaning the Reds would be expecting some compensation.. Arroyo's owed $22.5m while Suppan's owed $27m.

[Roderick]

Yep he can block 8 teams

So what has been the norm for players that have a limited no-trade clause? Do they block small market teams or the large market teams? Seems to me, players might block the large market teams because they will have leverage to negotiate a longer/larger contract to go there and there is a limited chance of actually being traded to a Kansas City. Or do they play it straight and block the teams/cities they really don't want to play for?

 

I'm all for trading Suppan away for nothing (kick in fringe minor leaguers if you have to) if it means we can spend that money to retain CC or Sheets. A rotation of Sheets, Yo, Parra, Bush, McClung with Villy in reserve works for me. If two of that group get hurt or are terrible, you should always be able to find a Zach Jackson emergency type of player to pitch that won't give up too much more than Suppan would have given up anyways.

[JohnBriggs12]

I still say Juan Pierre playing everyday in CF hurts you less than sending Suppan out there every 5 days. Pierre can still run, is a great bunter, and doesn't strike out and plays a position that the Brewers don't yet have a commitment for beyond this year. Pierre has negatives too obviously: no power, seldom walks, terrible arm, but if he gets back to hitting close to .300, he'll at least get on at a .330-.340 clip and create some havoc on the bases. I also like my chances of getting a runner in from 3rd with less than 2 outs a lot better with Pierre than with a K artist like Cameron.

 

Why pay Cameron $10 million and Suppan $12.5 million in 2009, when if you dealt Suppan for Pierre, you'd be paying just $10 million for Pierre? Granted you'd still owe Pierre another $18.5 over next 2 seasons, but if he has a comeback year, he might be tradeable down the road.

 

The Suppan signing was a mistake, especially the way they structured it. They are really in a bind with that contract. No solution is very good.

[kramnoj]

also like my chances of getting a runner in from 3rd with less than 2 outs a lot better with Pierre than with a K artist like Cameron.

 

For his career, Cameron with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out (in 417 PA): .314/.376/.528 (.904 OPS).

For his career, Pierre with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out (in 198 PA): .374/.430/.452 (882 OPS).

 

So Pierre has done well in those situations, but still Cameron has performed well in those situations as well. Would you really rather have an inferior player for a full season just because he has peformed slightly better in a situation that comes up a couple dozen times a season?

 

The Suppan signing was a mistake, especially the way they structured it.

 

In what way? They gave most of Suppan his money in the two years after Sheets departure, and in years they hoped they would have a pitching rotation with pre-arb or arby pitchers like Gallardo, Parra, Bush, Capuano, Villenueva and maybe Jeffress in 2010. Player salaries have gone up about 10% per year recently, so Suppan's contract over the next two years is what league average pitchers will probably get.

 

Suppan could be a #5 pitcher next year. A grossly overpaid one, but providing about the same value that other teams #5 pitchers get. In 2010, if the Brewers have 5 better SP than Suppan, they can make him a grossly overpaid long relief. Most big FA deals are one year too long, because if your team doesn't offer it, another team will.

[twobrewers]

I still say Juan Pierre playing everyday in CF hurts you less than sending Suppan out there every 5 days.

I am disgusted by the fact that Juan Pierre on the Brewers actually makes some sense.

 

You forgot to mention he would be an additional LH batter.

 

However, I would rather have 2 years of overpaying for Suppan than 3 years of overpaying for Pierre. (Plus, in a year Brantley would be better than Pierre already and play the same position.)

[nate82]

I would rather sign Corey Patterson to a deal than trade Suppan for Pierre.

 

Speaking of Patterson. Did anyone notice that Patterson had 2 good years when he wasn't with Dusty Baker. Notice these are not great years but it was two decent years with the Orioles not great but not bad either. His OBP needs to be higher but I do love those steal numbers. Those are not great either but they are decent. If Patterson could walk a lot more he would be a better player.

 

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2006	Bal	135	463	75	128	19	5	16	53	21	94	45	9	.276	.314	.443	.757
2007	Bal	132	461	65	124	26	2	8	45	21	65	37	9	.269	.304	.386	.690

His OBP sucks but he should never really be a lead off hitter anyways. He is a #7 or #8 hitter. 2007 was Patterson's best year. Maybe Patterson should rethink about where he wants to play. If I was him I would play anywhere but where Dusty is coaching. Mike Cameron has a higher OBP though. Cameron is about the same OBP wise as Pierre is career wise. Pierre has a career .346 OBP and Cameron has a career .340 OBP.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd do the Pierre trade in a heartbeat. I know how much he is hated on this board, but he is a better lead off hitter than anyone the Brewers have at this point. Most here downgrade him because he doesn't walk, but he also rarely strikes out. He can also execute a sacrifice bunt (something that's a rarity on this team). Getting Pierre would allow the Brewers to let Cameron walk and free up some cash to sign a decent SP. Wish the Dodgers would do this, but there is no way they will. We are stuck with Suppan unless someone else has a crappy pitcher making 8 figures on their roster. That didn't work out too well last time (Eldred for Navarro).

[clancyphile]

I would rather sign Corey Patterson to a deal than trade Suppan for Pierre.

 

Speaking of Patterson. Did anyone notice that Patterson had 2 good years when he wasn't with Dusty Baker. Notice these are not great years but it was two decent years with the Orioles not great but not bad either. His OBP needs to be higher but I do love those steal numbers. Those are not great either but they are decent. If Patterson could walk a lot more he would be a better player.

 

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2006	Bal	135	463	75	128	19	5	16	53	21	94	45	9	.276	.314	.443	.757
2007	Bal	132	461	65	124	26	2	8	45	21	65	37	9	.269	.304	.386	.690

His OBP sucks but he should never really be a lead off hitter anyways. He is a #7 or #8 hitter. 2007 was Patterson's best year. Maybe Patterson should rethink about where he wants to play. If I was him I would play anywhere but where Dusty is coaching. Mike Cameron has a higher OBP though. Cameron is about the same OBP wise as Pierre is career wise. Pierre has a career .346 OBP and Cameron has a career .340 OBP.

Patterson in the 7 hole, playing LF, moving Braun to third... I like that thought. It means keeping Cameron in center, but Cameron is worht having for his defense and .800+ OPS.

[trwi7]

Patterson in the 7 hole, playing LF, moving Braun to third... I like that thought. It means keeping Cameron in center, but Cameron is worht having for his defense and .800+ OPS.

So we downgrade the offense and the defense? That's not easy to do in one move, this would do it however.

[endaround]

Pierre's OBP the last 4 years: .326, .330, .331, .318. He doesn't hit for power and he can't get on base. He is also bad defensively with a terrible arm. If we trqade Suppan, who someone might axtually think could pitch, why taken on a huge anchor?