Chances of trading Jeff Suppan this offseason?

[Crewin06]

Also, what happens if Sheets and Sabathia both walk in free agency? Do you still want to trade Suppan then? Say the Brewers can't land any ace level pitchers in free agency...your rotation is then Gallardo/Parra/McClung/Bush/Villanueva, I guess. Doesn't really inspire too much confidence, personally.

 

That is a $5 million rotation. If we can't re-sign Sheets or Sabathia when the rest of the rotation is making under $5 million for the next couple of years there is something wrong. However I agree with your premise. Without Sheets or Sabathia Suppan becomes vital to the staff.

[kramnoj]

I have always felt that Suppan's deal was over-priced to some degree because of his success in the post-season with the Cardinals.

 

Overpriced to some degree isn't awful. Just about any FA that's in demand will be overpriced to some degree. Awful is just not an accurate description of Suppan's contract.

[Tbadder]

I just can't believe Suppan has much value at all. That contract is just awful. Maybe we can exchange a bad one year contract for some hopeless player for two years of a bad contract with a good guy that just doesn't have the best ability but will spin a few gems. A kind of NBA type trade.

For those of you bashing this contract please why is so bad. In the free agency year he was signed it was the same of the pitchers with his talent. Now two years later the price of those type of pitchers has gone up. IMO people rip on this contract because he is being paid more than Sheets. Yes Sheets has more talent but he took the home town discount his first time around for free agency. Sheets will get his chance this year to make the big money.

 

Because the market is wrong. Market prices don't have to be accurate, they're flawed and very human. The marketplace for #3/4 pitchers is way overvalued. It is what it is, but that doesn't mean I'm stupid enough to buy into it if I was a GM.

[Tbadder]

Also, what happens if Sheets and Sabathia both walk in free agency? Do you still want to trade Suppan then? Say the Brewers can't land any ace level pitchers in free agency...your rotation is then Gallardo/Parra/McClung/Bush/Villanueva, I guess. Doesn't really inspire too much confidence, personally.

 

I can totally see this as our rotation next year. It's gonna be a down year based on the Sheets/CC departures anyways. Maybe the following year through some trade and some minor leaguers we start to piece together another run. Besides, if the Cubs are smart they'll sign either Sheets or CC and it won't matter what we do.

[kramnoj]

Because the market is wrong. Market prices don't have to be accurate, they're flawed and very human. The marketplace for #3/4 pitchers is way overvalued. It is what it is, but that doesn't mean I'm stupid enough to buy into it if I was a GM.

 

You can choose to not participate in the market, but then you won't be signing FA that are in demand. Suppan has improved the team while he has been with the Brewers. The relative certainty of Suppan's averageish inning eating is valued and thus costly. Melvin may have been able to try to pick up starters off the scrap heap, but he chose to imprve the team with a market deal and has received market value.

[BrewerBrent]

I can totally see this as our rotation next year. It's gonna be a down year based on the Sheets/CC departures anyways. Maybe the following year through some trade and some minor leaguers we start to piece together another run. Besides, if the Cubs are smart they'll sign either Sheets or CC and it won't matter what we do.

I think we have to remember this is going to be a huge offseason. We have oodles of 1-year/expiring contracts. Off the top of my head, we're (potentially) losing:

Sheets, Sabathia, Gagne, Cameron (option), Kendall (option, which is almost certainly picked up), Torres (option?), Mota, Branyan, Kapler

I probably missed a few, but the point remains. There will be a lot of movement this offseason, and I can see a lot of signings / trades / promotions

 

[hauser42]

TBad

The whole baseball market is screwed up because there is no cap and the big market teams can sign just about any one they want. Maybe the Brewers should just forget about trying to field a winning team since it will cost too much. Can you imagine that coming out of Mark A's mouth and the reaction of the fan base?

Brewers hepled the team with in the structure of baseball and it is financial setting. The other path they could have taken was to rush some younger pitchers up before they were ready or sign some really bad pitchers at really low contracts. No matter what they most likley would not have been in the spot they were last year or this year.

This off season will do something to get some top of the rotation help to the team in a form of trade or free agent. He has done this each year to make this team competitive.

My money is on CC going to the Dodgers this off season. For some reason I see the Bosox being the home for Sheets. I have no inside info just my gut feeling on both.

[FVBrewerFan]

You would have to packgae him with a player that does have value- like Weeks.

[RobertR]

At this point, I might prefer Suppan to Weeks. Weeks has a higher upside, but he really hasn't been anything over average over an extended period.

 

FWIW, I don't believe that Suppan is overpriced much. Because I think everyone underestimates how much value there is in 200+ IP out of a starting pitcher. The extra 50 or so IP from Suppan over the average pitcher are innings that don't have to be pitched by someone called up from AAA or a journeyman middle reliever. Considering MLB is attracting record revenues, he's no real drag on the team since he is valuable.

 

Robert

[MoneyballMan]

Also, what happens if Sheets and Sabathia both walk in free agency? Do you still want to trade Suppan then? Say the Brewers can't land any ace level pitchers in free agency...your rotation is then Gallardo/Parra/McClung/Bush/Villanueva, I guess. Doesn't really inspire too much confidence, personally.

Well, even by putting Suppan in there instead of McClung, Bush or Villy, it still doesn't inspire much confidence!! I think we're looking at a big letdown next year, so we better win it all in 2008!

[hauser42]

Also, what happens if Sheets and Sabathia both walk in free agency? Do you still want to trade Suppan then? Say the Brewers can't land any ace level pitchers in free agency...your rotation is then Gallardo/Parra/McClung/Bush/Villanueva, I guess. Doesn't really inspire too much confidence, personally.

Well, even by putting Suppan in there instead of McClung, Bush or Villy, it still doesn't inspire much confidence!! I think we're looking at a big letdown next year, so we better win it all in 2008!

There might be a little let down, but Melvin will have all off season to get a SPs figured out. Right now the top end of the rotation is awesom with CC, Sheets and Parra. Next year you have Yo, Parra, and maybe a #1 guy I have no issue with that. 4-5 spot can be filled out with the guys we have left over. Suppan looks great deeper in the rotation as he eats up the innnigs not like a lot of 4-5 guys that are lucky to get to the six.

[DHonks]

I won't look at individual salaries for Suppan. I'll look at his entire contract, and his average salary is the key. Sure in two years his contract might be inflated, but for two years we paid him far below his market price.

[endaround]

Well sure, but his marginal cost is what it is. And its $12.5 million next year. His likely replacement is McClung who is likely only 1-2 wins worse than Suppan at the most. That $6 million a marginal win. Not a very good way to spend money. If Suppan is traded his deal was a decent one, if not it isn't.

[Badger inohiovalley]

The only reason you trade Soup is if you are sure you can sign Sabathia or Sheets. Otherwise, Suppan becomes the veteran arm around developing guys Gallardo and Parra (perhaps Villy), and the stop gap guys like McClung, Bush and Capuano (if we ever hear from him again).

[endaround]

Love how the better pitcher Bush is a stopgap while Suppan is a veteran presence

[kramnoj]

That $6 million a marginal win. Not a very good way to spend money. If Suppan is traded his deal was a decent one, if not it isn't.

 

It's too early to say this. You don't know what a marginal win will cost in 2009 and 2010.

 

And if the Brewers make the playoffs this year. that alone might make the deal worth it to the team (not in a financial sense, but in a marketing sense).

[Tbadder]

What kind of everyday player can I get for 12.5 million? How many young kids can I get for 12.5 million to work 200 innings in a AAA shuttle? I know 200 innings is valuable; I really don't disagree, but I'd spend my money elsewhere. At 12.5 for Suppan, I'd rather up the stakes and pay Sheets 18 million or CC 22 million. Or find two McClungs and pay them 4 to 6 million. The market is outta whack. And in this case the market is wrong. There are better bargains out there to be had. So while I respect what you guys are saying I'll stick to my guns on this one.

[hauser42]

Bush and McClung are the favorite flavor right now, but there past shows that they can not be counted on yet to throw 200 innings for a season yet. Both have had up and downs could easily and put the team back further if you decide that they are better than Suppan.

 

Tbad I would like to know what better bargains you think will be out there? From what I have seen the last couple years there are maybe one bargain when it comes to pitching unless you get lucky and a guy of the scrap heap hits it big or your own guy busts out. Market is what it is just like the gas prices, they are facts of life and you have to pay.

[trwi7]

Bush and McClung are the favorite flavor right now, but there past shows that they can not be counted on yet to throw 200 innings for a season yet. Both have had up and downs could easily and put the team back further if you decide that they are better than Suppan.

McClung I'll give you for not counting on throwing 200 innings but Bush pitched 210 innings in 2006 and 186.1 innings last year in 31 starts.

Bush has averaged 6.14 innings per start in his career with a 4.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Suppan has averaged 6.15 innings per start in his career with a 4.61 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. When you add that Bush will likely make $6-8 million less than Suppan next year Bush is by far the better value.

[kramnoj]

When you add that Bush will likely make $6-8 million less than Suppan next year Bush is by far the better value.

 

Just about any regular player that is pre-FA is going to be more valuable than a sought after FA.

 

As far as counting on Bush to throw 200 IP, that he has done so once doesn't mean we can count on him to do so in the future. Since Suppan has become a full time starter in 1999, he has thrown 200 IP 6 times.

[endaround]

Of course the last time before last season was 2003 so I'm not sure why he's a 200 inning guy. And he's unlikely to get to 200 innings this year.

[Oldcity]

He's averaged 204 innings per 162 game average as a big leaguer. He came close to 200 in 04, 05, 06.

[Tbadder]

Bush and McClung are the favorite flavor right now, but there past shows that they can not be counted on yet to throw 200 innings for a season yet. Both have had up and downs could easily and put the team back further if you decide that they are better than Suppan.

 

Tbad I would like to know what better bargains you think will be out there? From what I have seen the last couple years there are maybe one bargain when it comes to pitching unless you get lucky and a guy of the scrap heap hits it big or your own guy busts out. Market is what it is just like the gas prices, they are facts of life and you have to pay.

 

How about the the entire current St. Louis starting staff? Who decided to make Looper and Wellmeyer starters? I don't know who becomes a free agent next year, but at 12.5 million for a guy like Soup I'd rather take some chances on conversions etc. The price for Soup is just too much and the money would be better spent elsewhere when the marketplace acts dopey. It looks like McClung's conversion will be complete by next year. I'd rather have 125 to 175 innings of him and drop a big contract on Hart or Fielder, than pay Soup his 12.5 mill. And gas prices? Don't even go there. I have a 50mpg hybrid after owning an 18mpg Oldsmobile. I'm still paying less in gas that when it was 2 dollars a gallon. There's always ways to get around a marketplace that overinflated. Peace Dan

[hauser42]

Glad you have done your duty on the gas price TBad.

You really want to put your hands of the pitching staffs with a bunch of ??s as starters. Cards have been lucky the 1st half that Loshe, Looper and the rest of the guys pitched so well. There have been many guys that have had one great half only to fall flat on their faces the second half. IMO the Cards will fall apart with the starters they have, they are not ones with very good track records.

Next year to could be Parra and Yo as the top 2 guys then what are you going to have??

Bush that right now is on a hot streak and maybe has turned the corner. I dont see him being a 200 inning guy for the team and all his up and down ways.

McClung is in the same boat as Bush just that he has been around and through more teams.

C-Vill to me is going to be a bullpen guy and hopefully as a setup man for this team next year.

Minors are not offering a lot of help for next year. The Inman fans will think he would have helped but he is not getting past the 5inning in AA so not sure he would have offered much.

Suppan gets moved this team will pay more money for the same kind of start and once again the bullpen will be taxed as it will be out there day after day for 4 or more innings.

[TheCrew07]

Suppan isn't overpaid in terms of MLB wide pitcher contracts, the Brewers got market value, the only thing I thought was excessive was the no trade.

 

When I say he's overpaid, I mean the Brewers are spending more on his production than he's worth to the team. Is his production worth 1/9 of the total payroll the Brewers can afford? I would argue it isn't, and this is precisely why I don't like the Free Agent Pitching market at all for the Brewers. I don't see why they have to sign a free agent to address the rotation in the off season when they still have valuable bats they can move. This precisely the reason I'm not interested in signing Sheets or Sabathia, is their relative value to the team going to be worth 1/5 to 1/4 of the payroll when they are 34 years old? When you factor in the average injury factor for MLB pitchers and consider the possibility of having 1/5 to 1/4 of the payroll on the DL... that really seals the deal for me. Paying the kind of money Sheets and Sabathia deserve on the open market is simply a risk I wouldn't be willing to take. Again it's not about next year, or 2010, it's about 2013... I've always been more of a relative value guy, trying to work within confines of the max payroll.

 

Suppan's role will depend largely on what happens with the crop of pitchers at A and A+, and if Melvin aquires a young stud over the winter. I have no doubt he'll be in the rotation in 2009, but it wouldn't surprise me if he were gone by 2010.