CC Sabathia to the Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and Michael Brantley

[jwill535]

But it was Gasol who easily had the biggest impact on his team.

And at the same time the least impact of the team(see the finals).

 

[ewizabeff]

no press conference link, really? I can't find one, but I gotta believe it's out there somewhere (I'm referring to the 6PM press conference)

 

To answer my own question, in case others are looking, here's a link to the 6PM press conference from yesterday.

[RU Rah Rah]

For people asking how I came up with my 2 win estimate:

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2008/07/how-much-will-sabathia-be-worth-in-wins.html

 

I'm willing to extend that up to a possible two point FIVE wins. That does not take into account the loss today, however, which was obviously a result of the psychological impact of this trade. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

That's cool. I was working out some crude math in my head, but you broke it down far better.

[Mass Haas]

Because it involves the minor league PTBNL aspect of this deal, please visit and reply in this thread in the minor league forum.

 

Post # 42 has the update, the Indians have one of four players to choose from, not two. No new names confirmed, but some additional news...

[Postseason2006]

I just hope that Brewer fans realize that this acquisition should be expected to translate into around 2 more wins over the rest of the season. If those two games are the difference between missing and making the playoffs, obviously it was worth it.

I am still curious as to where the information of this was found. So far the Brewers are 9 - 1 in games started by CC. If Weeks holds on to the ball and or makes a good throw it could be 10 - 0. Cy Young? Maybe...MVP...so far deservedly so.

[1992casey]

First, it would have been irresponsible to predict that CC would be this good or that the Brewers would have won practically every game he started. Second, CC has to be compared to what he would have been replacing. The team would have probably been at or a little below .500 in games started by another pitcher. Those two things would narrow the gap considerably.

[silversurferr]

I don't think anyone predicted that he would be this good (we couldn't have even hoped). People were saying that he would be an improvement which would have a trickle down effect on the rest of the staff.

[Postseason2006]

I understand that but the point is why make a comment about improves us by two wins? Sure, there is a generalized theory but I liked the fact CC was switching leagues for one and he is a clear cut ACE.

[JoeHova]

I just hope that Brewer fans realize that this acquisition should be expected to translate into around 2 more wins over the rest of the season. If those two games are the difference between missing and making the playoffs, obviously it was worth it.

I am still curious as to where the information of this was found. So far the Brewers are 9 - 1 in games started by CC. If Weeks holds on to the ball and or makes a good throw it could be 10 - 0. Cy Young? Maybe...MVP...so far deservedly so.

This really shows how ridiculous the MVP is. How can a guy who has played 11 games be the MVP? 11 Games! 11! I don't care if he cured cancer and invented a perpetual motion machine that solves the world's energy needs during those 11 games, there is no way somebody can be more valuable in 11 games than other guys have been during the whole year.

[Postseason2006]

The fact of the matter is the guy is leading the league in COMPLETE GAMES! The Brewers bullpen is atrocious so can you imagine a McClung pitching 5 - 7 innings a start in his place. I guess that is the other main point.

[lcbj68c]

Sure looks like more than 2 wins to me.

[rluzinski]

I understand that but the point is why make a comment about improves us by two wins?

 

Because Melvin had to estimate how many wins CC was worth over what the Brewers had when he traded for him? If a fan wants to argue about the value of a trade, he has to do something similar. Had you simply let me know he was going to have a 1.43 ERA with the Brewers, I would have adjusted my estimates accordingly. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The rest of us had only his previous performance to go on. I projected his ERA to be around 3.25 in the NL:

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot...hia-be-worth-in-wins.html

 

Maybe I should have used 3.0 but this 'changing leagues" bump is pretty much a myth, from what I can tell.

 

Of course, I also assumed 4.6 runs/9 of run support (what the Brewer offense was averaging per game at the time). The offense has actually averaged 5.73 runs/9 in his starts, which certainly hasn't hurt.

 

That's why they call it an estimate.

[Ennder]

Sure looks like more than 2 wins to me.

 

I sure hope this wasn't serious... Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan have pitched like complete aces the last month too obviously they are both worth 10 games over replacement.

[mkm13]

The problem with the estimates to begin with were people trying to be to exact. It is impossible to predict a players worth over 1/2 a season to a game or 2. The probability of his worth would have been better represented by something like this (I am making up the percentages, and am not going to get in an argument over how accurate the percentages are, but the probabilities were MUCH more spread out than the people saying "he is worth 1 to 2 wins").

 

-1 game - 3%

0 games - 5%

1 game -10%

2 games - 20%

3 games - 20%

4 games - 17%

5 games - 13%

6 games - 5%

>7 games - 5%

[Ennder]

-1 game - 3%

0 games - 5%

1 game -10%

2 games - 20%

3 games - 20%

4 games - 17%

5 games - 13%

6 games - 5%

>7 games - 5%

There is no way to know those percentages ahead of time though. We have won 9 of 9 starts by Sabathia so far. We most likely would have won 4-9 of those starts wtihout him, given the high R/G my guess is we win 6 of 9 even if we never trade for Sabathia. He has been worth roughly 1-3 games so far with a large random factor based on how much better than expectations he has pitched and what McClung would have done. Nobody was saying they could predict the end numbers perfectly, they were trying to predict how the trade was without knowing the future.

 

 

(pared back quote --1992)

[rluzinski]

but the probabilities were MUCH more spread out than the people saying "he is worth 1 to 2 wins").

 

Every estimate has an expected spread. If you want to estimate the win total for a team over 162 games, 1 standard deviation is around 6 wins. But if you are going to argue about the merits of a trade, you are going to use the average expected value, as you see it. You aren't going to say, "Yeh, but he might pitch much better than his expected performance for 100 innings and get crazy run support to boot".

[TooLiveBrew]

You stat guys just hate puppies.

 

I'd genuinely like to know why some people think statistical projections are 'people trying to be exact', or posters just being pessimistic to rain on others' parades. The talk just after Sabathia was acquired was nothing short of overjoyed on all accounts from what I can recall.

[Schlitz001]

I think most people see the logic behind statistical projection, but sometimes it's not want they want to hear.

 

If I'm going to the beach tomorrow and the weatherman tells me there is an 80% chance of rain, I like to laugh in his face a little bit while I'm bronzing under the cloudless sky the next day. He doesn't control the weather, he's just making sure I don't get rained on.

[PeaveyFury]

Worth. Everything. We. Gave.

 

Period.

[DHonks]

Peavey, I agree. Simply said, this feeling was worth it

[brewmann04]

it worth everything we gave up again Kudos for Mark A pulling off this deal.

[naivin]

Undoubtedly an all-time trade.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

CY YOUNG!!!!

[trwi7]

Best. Trade. Ever.

[RU Rah Rah]

CY YOUNG!!!!

I didn't believe this until today, but I really think that, logically, he should be the MVP. No one player in the NL was more solely responsible for his team making it into the post-season.

 

(And, for the record, I am not a total homer about this kind of thing.)