CC Sabathia to the Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and Michael Brantley

[Thurston Fluff]

If it isn't crack it's some other highly toxic chemical. Maybe watching the Cubs or something equally unhealthy. Hardy would have been enough on his own to get 3 months of CC.

 

I see this deal as one that helps now without harming our future that much at all. LaPorta is a guy that we could most afford to lose. The positions he covers are covered for a few more years. There are other players like Gamel who fit the Brewers better going forward anyway. If there was one thing this team could afford to lose is a RH power hitting OF/!st baseman. Gamel hits LH and may be able to play one more position than LaPorta. Zach Jackson looked to be another one of those JDLR type of lefties with great stuff who someday will figure it out but really frustrate five or six teams before he does.

 

As far as CC only being worth 2 wins. I don't know how anyone can believe there is a valid way to quantify something like that. There is just too much variance in both the ripple effect and the very unique circumstances each player goes to that make each case different. I just don't think quantifying type of analysis is useful when the circumstances change every time a measurement is taken.

[JJHardy7]

Does anyone else think trading LaPorta possibly indicates the Brewers believe they can re-sign Prince? I know Gamel could just as well be moved to 1B, but I just thought I'd throw it out there.

[splitterpfj]

Does anyone else think trading LaPorta possibly indicates the Brewers believe they can re-sign Prince?

 

I don't know if I'd say that, but I do think they'll keep Prince here for at least 2009. They can afford to go the arby route with him, if he insists on playing hardball, and they've got plenty of time on their side at this point.

[JohnBriggs12]

Rotoworld quotes the Cleveland Plain Dealer as saying the PTBNL is either Brantley or Green.

[jwill535]

Rotoworld quotes the Cleveland Plain Dealer as saying the PTBNL is either Brantley or Green.

I will tend to believe the agent of said players vs. a paper.

 

[jwill535]

As for replacing LaPorta, you do that with Lawrie. As for Green I would expect the Brewers to take the best college 3B in next years draft, along with 4 HS pitcherhttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[RU Rah Rah]

Another thing to keep in mind is that it's not like the Brewers were trending toward the middle of the pack in the NL. Even without CC, the team has caught up with Cards and knocked a huge chunk off the Cubs' lead in the Division. Of course, there was no guarantee that things would continue in that direction, but there was a decent chance that the team could have made the WC without him (especially given the second-half schedule).

 

So, while I don't think CC will dramatically improve the team this season, at the very least he's going to help continue the upward trend that the team already has begun.

 

(Sorry about the verb tenses in there, btw.)

[Brian the Automator]

Some guy at northside baseball posted that Steve Stone just said on the radio that JJ Hardy is the PTBNL? Is he on crack, could it be remotely true, or does Steve Stone have no professionalism whatsoever and is just making crap up at this point?

JJ Hardy the PTBNL? No way it's true. I doubt Stone even said that ... My guess is whomever posted it either misunderstood a comment about Hardy or is making it up.

 

[Brian the Automator]

Does anyone else think trading LaPorta possibly indicates the Brewers believe they can re-sign Prince? I know Gamel could just as well be moved to 1B, but I just thought I'd throw it out there.

I think that's reading into it a bit too much. Time is on the Brewers side if and when they find an alternative at first-base. There are plenty of internal options as well as options via trade to backfill for Prince (if he doesn't sign). 1B is the easiest position on the diamond to fill, so that's the last thing I'm worried about at this point, I guess.

[yount19.u]

I like this trade a lot for the following reasons:

 

1. Whatever C.C. brings to this team in the regular season is great, but it's what he will bring in the post season that will make the trade worthwhile. He can go out there every 3-4 starts in October and allow the Crew to use players like Bush, Parra and maybe even Yo out of the pen. Obviously the Brewers have to get to the playoffs for this to be reality, but man it's looking good right now.

2. C.C. is a proven commodity, while prospects like LaPorta are not. Even though LaPorta's chances of becoming a star are good, they are not guaranteed, and that is why they call them prospects. The Brewer's have a very deep farm system, so their future is still bright even with this trade.

3. Two 1st round draft picks, or a 1st and a second round pick will be a nice tonic after C.C. walks. Given the team's recent success in the draft, there is a good chance another LaPorta will be coming along soon.

4. I think we should be able to nickname C.C. The Big Sexy as soon as he puts on a Brewer uniform. Ever since Sexson left there has been a void.

[jjfanec]

So as it stands if current knowledge is correct we will lose either Green, Cain, or Brantley (although agent denied that). I would much rather see Cain go then Green because of our OF depth. We have Braun and Hart there for a long time (assuming Hart is locked up which I think he will be), then we have Brantley, and Gillespie, so our depth is not astounding but it is good especially if Gamel ends up in the OF. As for Green we dont have much in terms of 2B prospects at all and Gamel is there at 3B but obviously he needs defensive work. I like Cain as a player but I would rather keep Green also liking his lefty bat. I would be pumped with a LaPorta, Cain, Bryson, Jackson trade. I would feel like Cleveland got the better end of a LaPorta, Green, Bryson, Jackson trade, but not by much and I still think we did what we needed to do.

Also with CC pitching Tuesday and Parra and Sheets being pushed back we could cut out a Parra start before the break to keep his innings down even a little bit more.

[Bucky Rules]

Am I off my rocker, or was somebody somewhere reporting that we would be getting two low-level prospects along with CC in this deal for the above mentioned four guys? I swear I saw that somewhere. Sorry if that's already been addressed on this thread -- I went back a couple of pages and didn't see it.

[Trowekamp]

The bright side about not being able to re-sign Sheets and/or Sabathia is if we make the playoffs we can pitch them every 3 days and let their team next year deal with the fall-out.

[uwisfan]

I think it could very well be Cain vs Green vs Brantley. Brantley's lack of power makes him somewhat expendable for a AA hitter, but he is still intriguing & young. Green holds the most value to the Brewers, but the Indians want to see him at 2B. Cain just got called up, so maybe they want to see him against tougher pitching..

[bretsky07]

Not to speak for agent39, but I think his denials of Brantley or Cain being in the deal came before he realized a higher-tier prospect would likely be named as the PTBNL. He still may have some knowledge he hasn't or can't share about who the PTBNL is, but in one of his earlier comments he thought it was a foregone conclusion that the 4th player would be a lesser prospect, likely from the 2007 draft, and he has since backed off on that stance.

[Brian the Automator]

Am I off my rocker, or was somebody somewhere reporting that we would be getting two low-level prospects along with CC in this deal for the above mentioned four guys? I swear I saw that somewhere. Sorry if that's already been addressed on this thread -- I went back a couple of pages and didn't see it.

I saw it reported somewhere as true ... of course, we've seen all kinds of stuff reported. I think it's save to say that it's:

Sabathia for Laporta, Jackson, Bryson and a PTBNL

 

[agent39]

I think it could very well be Cain vs Green vs Brantley. Brantley's lack of power makes him somewhat expendable for a AA hitter, but he is still intriguing & young. Green holds the most value to the Brewers, but the Indians want to see him at 2B. Cain just got called up, so maybe they want to see him against tougher pitching..

 

For the 18,000th time its not cain and its not brantley. As per noted in my blog. I hate the media.

[Fatter than Joey]

As far as CC only being worth 2 wins. I don't know how anyone can believe there is a valid way to quantify something like that. There is just too much variance in both the ripple effect and the very unique circumstances each player goes to that make each case different.

 

There most certainly are valid ways to estimate a players impact. Although, I don't think Russ is selling his results as anything more than an approximation.

 

Generally speaking -- if you replace a league average player (Jorgenson Marlins), with a MVP caliber player (Ryan Howard MVP season) you net about 5 wins. CC is a MVP caliber player, McClung is a league average player, so for half of a season, it is certainly historically reasonable to conclude that CC will give us 2-3 additional wins.

 

McClung has started 8 games for the Brewers, we are 6-2 in his starts, one of the losses, the Brewers only scored 1 run. CC would probably have lost that game as well. The other loss (6-7), McClung gave up 5ER and CC would have probably faired better. So in 8 starts, the Brewers would have picked up 1 win or so, again Russ's estimate seems reasonable.

 

In Bush's last 8 starts the Brewers are 5-3 (The 3 losses, 6-3, 10-2, 7-2. Bush gave up 4, 3, 5 ERs) -- as we can see -- the Brewers offense didn't help much in these games, in one game the BP gave up 7 ER -- both factors that are out of the SP's control. Could CC done better than Bush? most probably yes, would he have won all three games? -- probably not -- I think CC may have won 1.5 of them that Bush didn't -- again Russ's estimate seems fair.

 

We had this same discussion when Yo got hurt. The loss of Yo sucked, but Russ told us, it would be a 3-4 game differential over the course of the year -- and for the most part, I think if you look at what the Brewers have done since Yo's injury, we have probably at most lost 1-2 games so far with the Brewers losing Yo. Losing Yo is probably going to have about the same net effect as adding CC.

 

Additionally I think people are horribly undervaluing 2 wins for a team in the 85-95 win threshold. Most of your playoff teams are going to fall in that 85-95 win range, being able to slide up 2 wins when your playoff team pool is jammed in a 10 win range is really huge. This is a lot like saying you give a horse a 2 length advantage in a competitive race.

[JohnBriggs12]

Stone did throw Hardy's name out there as possibly the PTBNL but he has no inside info at all. He was going on the fact that the Brewers refused to include Escobar in the deal and his thought was well that means they are going to insert Escobar at SS in 2009.

 

While Escobar at SS in 2009 (at least at some point) is certainly possible, as Haudricourt said this morning that doesn't mean Hardy's going anywhere as he might well move to 3B or even 2B.

 

Expect to hear all kind of nonsense out of Chicago. They are having a real hard time coming to grips that the Brewers pulled this off and want desperately for them to have grossly overpaid and/or the Cubs to pull off some similar deal in response. Look for the Chicago media types to harp on Brewers' defense and bullpen as the difference. Never mind that the Cubs and Brewers have the exact same fielding percentage (.983) and total errors (56).

[brewerjamie15]

I've glanced over this thread again and have not seen it mentioned so I'm asking:

 

Anyone know the general consensus from Cards/Cubs fans about this trade? They should be afraid. Very afraid. The Brewers are not done yet either. I am confident there is more to come.

[Brian the Automator]

Stone did throw Hardy's name out there as possibly the PTBNL but he has no inside info at all. He was going on the fact that the Brewers refused to include Escobar in the deal and his thought was well that means they are going to insert Escobar at SS in 2009.

 

While Escobar at SS in 2009 (at least at some point) is certainly possible, as Haudricourt said this morning that doesn't mean Hardy's going anywhere as he might well move to 3B or even 2B.

I'm not sure why people think it's either Escobar or Hardy either. Maybe it is, but there's no reason that they couldn't use Escobar as a reserve. He'd be a terrific defensive replacement, and decent middle infield insurance.

[Fatter than Joey]

Anyone know the general consensus from Cards/Cubs fans about this trade? They should be afraid. Very afraid.

 

Cubs -- They have a .600 winning pct, fueled by a +102 scoring differential (the next largest in the NL is +78). The Cubs have already addressed some of their weaknesses already (CF -- Edmonds, Johnson), and the average Cub fan knows that their team will be active in pursuing what their team needs. Furthermore, I don't think the Cubs care who wins the WC, which some team has to win, and is the Brewers more likely slot. I don't think the Cubs fan gets very concerned about this.

 

Cards -- I suspect this deal is more concerning to the Cardinal fans, as their playoff slot (WC) is threatened.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm not sure why people think it's either Escobar or Hardy either.

 

Me either. The Indians have Peralta, who is very similar to Hardy, and Asdrubal Cabrera in AAA.

 

They may want to upgrade Peralta, but I think any move bringing a player like Hardy to the Indians would include Peralta getting shipped out.

[Thurston Fluff]

There most certainly are valid ways to estimate a players impact.

 

This is where we disagree. There are ways to give a general indication of what a move of this sort would do. there is not a way to quatify a specific move to a specific team. The Sabathia trade could mean more wins to one team vs another simply because the makeup of one team is so different than the other.

 

Maybe it is, but there's no reason that they couldn't use Escobar as a reserve. He'd be a terrific defensive replacement, and decent middle infield insurance.

 

Maybe but I think they want him to get regular work in so he develops his hitting more and be a gold glove caliber player who can also hit at a major league level. I think they most certainly view him as the starting shortstop of the future so I don't think they want to inhibit his development in any way.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Most of the Cubs fans aren't that concerned with the trade and they may be right. If the Cubs keep taking care of their own business, they will likely make the playoffs. If the Brewers have improved enough to take the division, it's hard for me to believe the Cubs would fall far enough to be out of the Wild Card. The added home games at the beginning of the season may have skewed their record a little above average, but they are certainly tracking for a 90+ win season...that will get them to October.

 

For the Wild Card contenders...this trade makes a bigger difference. The Cards have been amazingly resilient, the Marlins are young and talented and I still think we hear from the Mets/Phillies before this is over. A couple extra wins for the Crew here makes a big difference.

 

If we are fortunate to get that far...CC/Sheets/Parra makes an awfully compelling rotation in the postseason. I'm pumped. It's a big price, but at some point going for it makes sense.