CC Sabathia to the Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson, and Michael Brantley

[KCBrewerfan34]

Rillo what kind of thinking is that? Nothing is a guarantee, we all should be doing backflips that this mangement team has put this team in position to make the playoffs because of this deal, that would be a first since what 82? I have no idea how this trade can't be embraced or have we been losers for so long we don't know how to act like winners?

[Rob]

Rosenthal has ineresting things to say.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8319678/Savvy-Brewers-turn-prospects-into-ace-Sabathia

[Brewer Fever]

oh man, according to MLB.com, the Indians will likely call up newly signed Jeff Weaver to replace CC in the rotation.

 

It would be the irony of all ironies if somehow Weaver outpitched Sabathia the rest of the way after the Brewers cut him loose and then he replaces our big acquisition in the Cleveland rotation. Seriously, I can see it winding up in Wikipedia next to the word "irony" if that were to transpire.

 

:shudder:

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The line of thinking is that if you are going to give up 6 years of Matt LaPorta, you better get something damn good in return and if they don't make the playoffs the deal was a complete waste besides 2 draft picks that won't see the Bigs for at least 3 more years.

[phxMILWfan]

Incase anyone still thought the Brewers may resign Sabathia... From TH's article on jsonline.com

 

 

Reason to act quickly

The non-waiver trade deadline is not until July 31, but the Brewers figured the sooner they got Sabathia, the more starts they could get from him. They have no illusions of preventing him from leaving as a free agent after the season, another reason they didn't want to part with an additional high-level prospect.

 

There is also a financial component to adding Sabathia to the roster. The Brewers will have to pay nearly half of his $11 million salary, boosting their payroll near the $90 million level.

 

 

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=769685

[TooLiveBrew]

The line of thinking is that if you are going to give up 6 years of Matt LaPorta, you better get something damn good in return and if they don't make the playoffs the deal was a complete waste besides 2 draft picks that won't see the Bigs for at least 3 more years.

 

It's revisionist's history. I have no problem with your argument as long as you can admit that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

We got something dang good in return, and have a very real shot to win the WS.

[obobo55]

Here's the rough numbers I used. A team with an average offense and average bullpen goes from winning around 50% of their games with Bush starting (assuming 6 IP and a 4.75 RA) to about 60% with Sabathia (6-1/3, 3.5 RA). That 10% is an absolutely huge difference in baseball. A team who can win at a 60% rate for a season wins 97 games, after all. 10% x 15 starts = 1.5 wins.

I would guess that is where the difference of opinion comes in Russ. Many here are penciling in CC as an 7-8 inning guy at 2.15 ERA they have seen the last two months. While I agree with you that he is more likely to stat out at your rates, it is possible that he posts those other numbers too (he is in a contract drive after all). What would your numbers say if he puts up a 3 ERA over 7 in comparison to Bush?

 

[Ennder]

In case anyone still thought the Brewers may resign Sabathia... From TH's article on jsonline.com...

 

The non-waiver trade deadline is not until July 31, but the Brewers figured the sooner they got Sabathia, the more starts they could get from him. They have no illusions of preventing him from leaving as a free agent after the season, another reason they didn't want to part with an additional high-level prospect.http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=769685

None of that means we can't re-sign him though. I'm sure they expect to lose him but I'm sure they will make an offer to keep him too.

[bullox]

The line of thinking is that if you are going to give up 6 years of Matt LaPorta, you better get something damn good in return and if they don't make the playoffs the deal was a complete waste besides 2 draft picks that won't see the Bigs for at least 3 more years.

I was pretty much on board with what you are talking about until I thought more about it and my opinion changed - those picks could turn out to be someone comparable to LaPorta, who could then also be a trading chip for another piece to the puzzle as early as next year. Keep the cycle going, and get a solid addition to your ML roster for now. It's a solid move, and the cupboard is still far from bare.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It's revisionist's history. I have no problem with your argument as long as you can admit that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

We got something dang good in return, and have a very real shot to win the WS.

I'm not sure what revisionist's history is but I'll admit to it because that's where I'm coming from. If this deal does put us over the top it was the right move. Do I think it was the right move? No. But I'm not the GM and Doug Melvin knows baseball a lot better than I do.

[Never Outhustled]

Trading LaPorta was going to happen sooner or later, as he is a Boras client.

I'm really hoping Taylor Green is not on the PTBNL list the Brewers have to submit to the commisioners office. Green is our 3B of the future. If the Brewers think Gamel can be a worthwhile 3B, they need to review there consistent falures in developing defense.

Sebathia is outstanding and motivated, which makes him a great addition. The Brewers shouldn't need to make another deal, as the bullpen will be fine as soon as Brewer brass looks at the back of Mota's baseball card and realize he been bad for years, and Weeks will likely get hot, as its rediculous to think he washed up at 25.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just mean that you can't say, 'The deal only works if we make the playoffs'. We could have made them without CC, and we could miss them with him. The deal imo has to be analyzed in terms of how much it improves the big-league club's chances of playing into October, since that's why it was made.

 

Imho the given is that LaPorta is going to be good. But so is Sabathia, and we get two more picks to help replenish the system. With Sheets likely gone after 2008, the time is most certainly now. To be honest, the player we might wish we'd traded 4 or 5 years from now could be Braun, as silly as that sounds today. Of course his contract extension changes that analysis a bit.

 

 

Do I think it was the right move? No. But I'm not the GM...

 

Well you're a more honest fan than most, that's for sure. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I certainly don't register as a blip on the radar screen when compared to Melvin's knowledge either.

[Team Canada]

Well, it sounds like the PTBNL might have been used just to expidite the CC to Milwaukee part of the trade. The Brewers obviously wanted CC for 2 start's before the All Star gam, and Shapiro obviously wanted to do his due diligence and get the best possible players. So just my opinion but the odds are the the Indians have a short list of players to choose from, probably including Green, LuCroy, Gillespie, or someone else in that realm of prospect 5-15 in the Brewers organization.

I think you're exactly right, Nader. If it's not Green, it'll be someone else of that echelon, and I assume Doug has already said "We're fine with whichever guy you pick but we need CC here by Tues." So I don't love the trade as much as I did when we thought Green wasn't going, but at the same time, if we make the playoffs I sure love our chances.

[iluvlamp]

I like the fact that the Brewers just traded for C.C. Sabathia. It makes me happy. Could it backfire? Sure. But why question and nitpick everything surrounding it? This is the first big move they have made since 82 and some are worried about prospects. Prospects? Get on board. They are FINALLY GOING FOR IT!

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well you're a more honest fan than most, that's for sure. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I certainly don't register as a blip on the radar screen when compared to Melvin's knowledge either.

Thanks for the compliment. Now let's get on to bigger and better things. What is the scouting report on Sabathia? I heard he throws 94 mph. What is his best secondary pitch? I'm going to do some scouting on Tuesday. I just bought tickets.

 

Oh and has anyone read North Side Baseball to hear the crying?

[rluzinski]

Many here are penciling in CC as an 7-8 inning guy at 2.15 ERA they have seen the last two months. While I agree with you that he is more likely to stat out at your rates, it is possible that he posts those other numbers too (he is in a contract drive after all). What would your numbers say if he puts up a 3 ERA over 7 in comparison to Bush?

 

About 65% chance of winning each start with a 3.0 RA (runs/9). .15% x 15 starts = 2.25 wins. Seriously though, there is no reason to believe that Sabathia is a true 3.0 ERA starter pitcher. I was being generous by calling him a 3.5 RA pitcher. That's not to say Sabathia couldn't put up a 2.5 ERA for half a season though. He could also put up a 4.0+ ERA and actually hurt the team. I'm just giving the average, expected production (at least my best guess).

 

Also, for reference, he's averaged a little over 6-1/3 IP per start over his career, although he's pushed that close to 7 IP/start over the the last 2+ years.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Seriously though, there is no reason to believe that Sabathia is a true 3.0 ERA starter pitcher.

Who is though in today's game?

[kiwi brewer]

Oh and has anyone read North Side Baseball to hear the crying?

what's that link again?

 

[TooLiveBrew]

what's that link again?

I think it's on page 2 or so in here.

[gregmag]

I love this deal, and I'm somebody who utterly hated the Linebrink deal (and still do). If you're going to make a deadline move, you get the best player available -- the Brewers did that. You deal from strength -- the Brewers did that.

 

Bryson is a solid prospect, but the pitching depth in the low minors makes him just another crapshoot guy. LaPorta . . . he's hit a ton, he sounds like a great guy, and I don't mean to disparage him. But he's a straight-up power hitter with little defensive value, and the Brewers are stacked with good hitters who can only play LF/1B. Plus he's not real young for his level, and players like him (lots of power, pedestrian BA, no speed, not much defense) don't tend to age well. I always had in the back of my mind that he might be worth more as a chip than as a piece of the Brewers' future. Even if he turns out to be better than anybody the Brewers run out at LF/1B over the next decade, I doubt losing him hurts the team a lot, and I can't imagine he could ever have lynchpinned a higher-leverage trade than this one.

 

The PTBNL thing is driving me nuts. Green would be a huge loss. We don't really have any 2b prospects, unless you count Hardy/Escobar, which by one measure makes him more valuable than LaPorta to the Brewers. Maybe it's just that I've gotten well slapped around in Green vs. Brantley debates this week, but I'm a believer. I guess we'll see.

 

Greg.

[ELCABALLO45]

People also have to remember that Sabathia is also going from the AL to the NL.

[bullox]

What is the scouting report on Sabathia? I heard he throws 94 mph. What is his best secondary pitch?

The heat is 92-95, and his curve is an out pitch that breaks sharply on two planes. The changeup is solid but not spectacular. Remember, this guy currently leads the majors in Ks, so he has some pretty good stuff.

 

Edit: This scouting report is almost verbatim from an Insider article.

[trwi7]

I heard he throws 94 mph. What is his best secondary pitch?

He throws 93.6 on average this year. His best secondary pitch is a knockout curveball.

[rluzinski]

Who is though in today's game?

 

No one. Before the season started, Peavy had the best projection at 3.23 ERA, even with the aid of an extreme pitcher's park. That's not to say that a starting pitcher can't ever put up an ERA under 3 for a season (Cliff lee has a good shot at it). It would just be likely that he had to have been a little lucky to go along with being really good.

People also have to remember that Sabathia is also going from the AL to the NL.

 

I was calling him a 3.50 RA pitcher, which is about a 3.25 ERA. I think that would be a pretty reasonable expectation for him in the NL.

[ELCABALLO45]

Haha! Check out Sabathia's offical site.

 

http://ccsabathia52.com/

 

http://ccsabathia52.com/images/hdr_secondary.jpg