July 31 Deadline Thread

[battlekow]

Well, Austin Jackson spun his wheels in the Sally League for a year and a half and then took off immediately in the FSL; also, that's obviously the exception as most prospects, let alone ones who struggle in A ball for over a year, don't pan out. Brewer is a better prospect than probably anyone else with similar numbers by virtue of his athleticism, but that doesn't mean he's a good prospect overall.

 

If he had only just been holding his own, there would be a lot of reason for optimism. If he was an elite defender, there would be a lot of reason for optimism. But the fact that a .700 OPS in a month is pointed to as a sign of significant progression speaks to how poorly he's played.

[mothershipconnection]

So does that mean Gamel and Escobar have no value, because they haven't been traded yet?

 

You'd have to concede there that Gwynn will be 26 in a few months and is putting up a sub-.700 OPS in the minors. There's a difference between guys you know a team wants to hold onto for the future and a guy that makes you wonder who the heck would give up anything worthwhile for him. Melvin and co can't honestly be looking at his performance and thinking this is a guy with more than an outside shot of contributing in the bigs. But yes, the Brewers seem to greatly overvalue Gwynn.

[TheCrew07]

There were rumors Cain was available this offseason... While he's not someone I'm specifically interested in it's all about finding teams that match up well. Again I point to a team like TB, who has pitching to spare, or like Toronto. If Shields is truly equal in value to Fielder, I think it's entirely possible to pick up young pitching talent. If not then we're screwed and we won't do better than Suppan's in free agency till some of these young pitchers pan out. That may be the reality, I don't think it is, and I'll continue to hope that it's reasonable to flip bats for pitching until proven otherwise. I'm getting tired of posting the same ideas over and over but I have several very long posts about rotation solutions that aren't rentals in the trade forum.

 

Just this last off season the Rangers acquired outfielder Josh Hamilton from the Reds for RHP Edinson Volquez and LHP Daniel Herrera. That's a pretty fantastic deal for both sides, it's possible the Brewers could flip Fielder or Hart in the same matter. The simple truth as I see it is that fans want name recognition... Sabathia, Halladay, etc... I'd much rather get Lincecum's or Volquez's when they are cheap and on the verge of breaking out.

[Postseason2006]

I just don't get this mentality. I know these guys have advanced to a level where they have proven themselves to some extent, but we will be receiving two HIGH draft picks when CC leaves in FA next year. Those picks are both going to be higher than where the prospects we are talking about were drafted. Brantley was a 7th rounder, Cain 17th, Green 25th, Lucroy 3rd. I like each of these guys and I don't want to part with any of them either, but the picks we get for CC's departure will likely be of higher talent level. They still need to move up the ladder but I would expect at least one of the two to match whichever player Cleveland picks

Who cares where guys were drafted? Ever heard of Chad Green, David Krynzel, Nick Neugenbauer, JM Gold, Mike Jones, Antoine Williamson, Kenny Felder, Kenny Henderson, Tyrone Hill, Kyle Peterson along with countless second and third rounders that did nothing in baseball?

 

Who cares where a guy is drafted. Your argument falls week because some of those players were drafted as HS kids. Did you know the Brewers drafted Nomar out of HS for example late? Manny Parra I believe was a 29th round pick. Does that mean that nearly 600 kids that are drafted before him should be better right now?

 

Again, this is not football where there is clear talent. The competition and number of kids are far different in these two sports.

 

Rant over....

[obobo55]

I just don't get this mentality. I know these guys have advanced to a level where they have proven themselves to some extent, but we will be receiving two HIGH draft picks when CC leaves in FA next year. Those picks are both going to be higher than where the prospects we are talking about were drafted. Brantley was a 7th rounder, Cain 17th, Green 25th, Lucroy 3rd. I like each of these guys and I don't want to part with any of them either, but the picks we get for CC's departure will likely be of higher talent level. They still need to move up the ladder but I would expect at least one of the two to match whichever player Cleveland picks

Who cares where guys were drafted? Ever heard of Chad Green, David Krynzel, Nick Neugenbauer, JM Gold, Mike Jones, Antoine Williamson, Kenny Felder, Kenny Henderson, Tyrone Hill, Kyle Peterson along with countless second and third rounders that did nothing in baseball?

 

Who cares where a guy is drafted. Your argument falls week because some of those players were drafted as HS kids. Did you know the Brewers drafted Nomar out of HS for example late? Manny Parra I believe was a 29th round pick. Does that mean that nearly 600 kids that are drafted before him should be better right now?

 

Again, this is not football where there is clear talent. The competition and number of kids are far different in these two sports.

 

Rant over....

Again, I understand what you are saying. Brantley, Cain, Green, Lucroy, and Gillespie are somewhat proven commodities while a draft pick could end up as a total flop. That is true whether the pick comes in the 1st round or supplemental. At the same time though, none of these guys is such a sure thing that it makes giving them up a completely idiotic move. LaPorta, Gamel, Escobar, are on that level and if the Brewers had given up two of those I would have been more upset. There are questions about each of the guys we are speculating about. Given 2 high round picks, it is my opinion that JZ will find one that ends up being as good or better than the guy Cleveland takes.

I am guessing, but I think it will end up being Green. He may turn out to be a great 2B or 3B with lefty power. I would greatly miss that type of guy. It is also possible that he ends up playing the OF. Then I am not so concerned. What if we find another Yo with one of the picks? Would you still be upset if we traded a good/great OF for a dominant SP?

 

I think too many people are looking at the greatest upside for the guy we lose as the PTBNL, while writing off any possibility of the pick doing anything.

[TheCrew07]

I think you're misinterpeting what people are saying.

Green is 1-2 years away from being MLB ready today if he continues to hit, any draft pick next June is likely 4 years from the bigs making them 5 years away today. Our best case scenario is a player who only spends 2 to 3 years in the minors which still puts them 3 to 4 years away as of right now... regardless of thier talent level. Players that fly through the minors in less than 3 years pretty rare, and pretty special, I'm not going to base my opinions on the best or worst case scenario, I'm going to base my opinions on the average prospect who becomes an MLB player.

When you push your talent farther back from Milwaukee, you shorten the current window. That's fine for many people who post here, they don't care about 2009 or 2010 they want to win today and go to the playoffs this year because it's been 26 years. I'm the opposite, it's been 26 years so what's another year? I want the correct player for the correct price, I'm willing to accept that the organization didn't develope enough pitching to go with the current crop of hitters and I'm opposed to dumping talent for short term solutions. Even if Jeffress and Braddock explode next year and put up Yo type numbers, we still won't see either in Milwaukee until 2010 at the earliest.

[Tbadder]

(making the sign of the cross) Bless you my son.

[Minigoon]

When you push your talent farther back from Milwaukee, you shorten the current window. That's fine for many people who post here, they don't care about 2009 or 2010 they want to win today and go to the playoffs this year because it's been 26 years. I'm the opposite, it's been 26 years so what's another year?

I couldn't agree with you more Crew07. I want what Atlanta had through the 90's.

[Never Outhustled]

When you push your talent farther back from Milwaukee, you shorten the current window. That's fine for many people who post here, they don't care about 2009 or 2010 they want to win today and go to the playoffs this year because it's been 26 years. I'm the opposite, it's been 26 years so what's another year?

Actually, I think you may be looking at it shortsighted. You talk about trading for rentals pushing prospects back years, suggesting that the traded prospects have to be replaced by the compensatory picks. How did we replace the prospects that disappeared from the system when Fielder, Hardy , Weeks, Braun, Gollardo, and Parra graduated from the system the last 3 years? We already had more prospects drafted. We have guys already in our system to replace the traded prospects. Jack Z isn't going to just go crosseyed and forget how to get the next Green, Cain, or Bryson. We have top guys like Gamel, Jeffress, Lucroy, Green, Brantley, Etc., and we got them without the benefit of compensatory picks.

 

Now here's the reason I think your being shortsighted. The Brewers have found a system to exploit there greatest organizational asset, Jack Z, and you haven't waited to see the results. The Brewers have been drafting several players a year that become prospects, and now will be supplamenting that with compensatory picks, which will add even more prospects coming down the pipe than we've seen so far.

 

If your willing to wait for domminance, wait until the draft classes of 2008 and 2009 have a year to develop. The Brewers will have more prospects for the big league club, and more prospects to trade for rentals, which will give us more comp picks.

[uwisfan]

Yeah, I'm in it for the long haul..would prefer seeing us stockpile talent.

[TheCrew07]

X... I thought we agreed to disagree about this already... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I understand what you're saying, it's just not that simple, the Brewers are always taking on salary and pushing the maximum limits of the payroll with what you propose. It's far better for the Brewers to be sellers, I look at what Oakland has typically done... they ride out a guy and then flip him for more quality. I don't see how any team can be stock piling young talent when they are constantly trading away the players at the upper echelons of the minor... who fills the holes created by injuries or free agency? More rentals?

 

My point about a guy like Green which you may have missed, it's that there is no ready replacement for his value at this time, he can fill either 3B or 2B and is a left handed Cirillo. I've been on record for years as not being a big fan of Hall's, and Weeks is starting to wear me down as well. There is nobody between those guys besides Gamel (who may or may not stick at 3B) and Green, and there's nobody between Green and maybe Lawrie if he doesn't play C. No offense to Wilson and Farris, but they simply don't excite me much. I was intrigued by Trejo but he got hurt, and Marseco has been playing well but most college players do well in Helena. Where would the options be to replace those MLB guys? I'm sorry but Durham isn't not my idea of a capable replacement, but that's what we're looking at when the upper levels of the system are thin on talent.

 

edit. Totally forgot to weigh in on Jack Z...

 

I couldn't agree more, Z is a stud, one of the best at what he does... but what happens when he's no longer there to replace the talent? That's my biggest fear... I have faith in Z, but I"ll be nervous the first draft after he's gone, I hope it's never, but he's too good at what he does to be a scouting director forever.

[Never Outhustled]

I understand what you're saying, it's just not that simple, the Brewers are always taking on salary and pushing the maximum limits of the payroll with what you propose. It's far better for the Brewers to be sellers, I look at what Oakland has typically done... they ride out a guy and then flip him for more quality. I don't see how any team can be stock piling young talent when they are constantly trading away the players at the upper echelons of the minor... who fills the holes created by injuries or free agency? More rentals?

The Brewers will be adding Escobar and Gamel to the big league lineup within the next year. How many rookies can we really tolerate at once and still be contenders? Trading off every established player and replacing him with a rookie is a good way to rebuild, but we didn't even contend yet. When Escobar gets plugged in at SS, either Hardy moves to 2B, or gets traded to fill other holes. I don't know where Gamel will play, but when he ready he gives us the lefthanded bat we need, and will be an asset at some position. The team is not trading away all the prospects, they kept an appropriate amount.

 

Also, your not acknowledging the fact that they've found a way to add more prospects to the system, and that system also adds dominate players to the big league roster(Sebathia).

[TheCrew07]

I had hoped I had made it clear that I wasn't trying to diminish Sabathia's value in my first post I probably missed the mark there, or any rental player's immediate impact or role on the team. I'm speaking specifically to the idea that 2 draft picks replaces the lost talent, which I don't think is that cut and dried.

 

I understand what you're saying my friend, but they aren't adding more prospects in my opinion, we're hoping they are at least breaking even... Take the Sabathia trade... Jackson is what he is... LaPorta has the chance to be something special, I was really into Bryson (though shoulder injuries scare me), and the PTBNL is going to be someone who's a very good prospect. So essentially you have to replace LaPorta and PTNBL with similar quality prospects. I just don't think it's as easy as you make it sound..

 

If you want to revisit the Linebrink trade, will Frederickson ever have the success that Inman and Garrison are now? I know he's infinately more projectable and a LHP, but I don't think he's certain to ever pitch a MLB inning, while I'm confident that barring injury Inman will at least get a shot.

 

Again my concern is plugging holes on the MLB roster. In my opinion the position players most upgradable in no particular order are 2B, 3B, CF, and C... I know the rotation is upgradable as is the bullpen, but there aren't really any projectable top of the roatoin inhouse options ready at this point, and Pena hasn't pushed for a MLB roster spot at all. I have no doubt Gamel will fit somewhere, I would like JJ to move over to 2b but with LaPorta gone maybe they'll try to lock up Prince and trade JJ instead for pitching. Value wise it makes more sense to me to trade Fielder for Shields, than Escobar, Lucroy, Jeffress, and Brantley for Shields. Again I understand what the team was doing going after Sabathia, but I would have much rather aquired a young top of the rotation pitcher for that same prospect package, which is just as possible given the proper circumstances. Again I know that deal isn't going to be avialable every year, but as I've speculated the Rays are shopping Niemann who's probably a solid #3, rumors persisted about Cain's availability all off season last year as well, so it's entirely possible to aquire young pitching giving the proper circumstances.

 

I don't know how to say it any more plainly, but trading for rentals is not getting the maximum possible value out of your prospects. It doesn't matter what the other players do, in my opinion rentals are a low value move.

 

I guess I ask myself this question, was the trade worth it? I try to remove emotion from the equation and look at it as objectively as possible... was giving up LaPorta and 1 of (Green, Lucroy, Brantley, etc), and a healthy Bryson for a rental player better than aquiring someone that would help the rotation for years to come? On paper, being as objective as possible, I have a hard time coming to any logical conclusion where a rental player is in the best long term interests of the club. If Toronto had made me the same move would I think they got the best value or would I think Cleveland got the better end of the deal because I have no emotional attachment to either team? I love CC, I've been trading for him in video games forever, I've wanted him on the Brewers for years... but value wise I cannot sell the trade to myself as the best possible value. I want to believe it was because I'm so biased towards him, but in my heart I believe it's not good value, and I'm not going to try to convince others that was the best deal for the Brewers. If the Brewers make the playoffs many fans won't care, in fact it's probably fair to say that regardless many people won't care, the Brewer's made a move and "went for it", and that's all many fans are interested in. The only circumstance I would get behind a rental is when I think the window is closing on a team, and I really didn't feel the window was closing on the Brewers. Losing Sheets didn't have to mean a step backwards given the proper moves elsewhere, and I still firmly believe that 2010 would have fielded and still may field a better Brewer team than this year's team.

 

X, I respect your opinions a great deal. You come off very honest, geniune, and you always offer well thought opinions on whatever subject you care to comment on. I dont' see where we're ever going to agree on this subject and I hope I'm not rubbing you the wrong by refusing to accept your point of view. I understand the perspective you're approaching the issue from, I simply dont' agree, nor do I expect you to adopt my perspective, we're two different personalities... At the very least it's always an interesting debate.