Aligning the rotation after the AS break/if there's a trade

[LUKE232323]

Given we are given a clean slate to set up the rotation, I was looking at the schedule, and here is how I would do it after the break.

 

Sheets

Suppan

Parra

Bush

McClung

 

What this does is it allows us to go McClung, Sheets, Suppan, Parra against the Cubs. I'd rather have McClung against the Cubs than Bush, they really haven't seen much of him and just from memory it seems that Bush has struggled historically against the Cubs as well. This would give us Bush, McClung, Sheets in the series against the Cardinals the week prior.

[zzzmanwitz]

I think they want to separate Sheets and Suppan since they are the most likely to give you long outings. Other than that, I agree.

[1992casey]

The team might have to make an adjustment should Sheets pitch in the All Star game. Also, it might pay to set things up so Parra and McClung have as much time off as possible.

[MickeyDavis]

Sheets will be fully rested for the AS game, he will have last pitched 5 days before. If he goes a couple of innings he should be fine to start 3 days later in San Francisco.

[brewmann04]

I would drop Bush to the 5th spot

[LUKE232323]

If you throw McClung at #5 out of the AS break, it would give him ten days off, which might be good for his "dead arm". If Sheets pitches in the AS game, and you want to give him a break, give him the normal five days and throw him in game three of the SF series. That would keep him in line to pitch the final game of the Cubs series and still keep Bush out of the Cubs series as well, with it going McClung, Suppan, Parra, Sheets for the Cubs.

[LUKE232323]

I would drop Bush to the 5th spot

So you'd rather have Bush going against the Cubs than McClung? If they don't skip starters, whoever gets thrown at #5 out of the break will pitch against Chicago.

[JohnBriggs12]

Where does Sabathia go?

 

Seriously, they should go with:

 

Parra, Sheets, Suppan, Bush and McClung. That ensures Parra and Sheets both pitch against St. Louis and Chicago. It also allows Parra to pitch on normal rest after the break, Sheets an extra day after he appears in the ASG and extra time to get Sabathia in here. Then they could replace McClung with Sabathia on 7/22 vs. the Cards, start McClung on 7/27, then start Sabathia vs. Cubs in opener on 7/28 and give Yost the option of either Bush or Suppan for the 2nd game vs. the Cubs.

[LUKE232323]

Where does Sabathia go?

 

Seriously, they should go with:

 

Parra, Sheets, Suppan, Bush and McClung. That ensures Parra and Sheets both pitch against St. Louis and Chicago. It also allows Parra to pitch on normal rest after the break, Sheets an extra day after he appears in the ASG and extra time to get Sabathia in here. Then they could replace McClung with Sabathia on 7/22 vs. the Cards, start McClung on 7/27, then start Sabathia vs. Cubs in opener on 7/28 and give Yost the option of either Bush or Suppan for the 2nd game vs. the Cubs.

Actually, I wouldn't mind that either, and good idea getting Parra/Sheets against both division teams.

 

I don't think we are getting CC Needsabathia though. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[And That]

I would place Parra after Sheets so that if and when Sabathia/Bedard/etc is acquired, that pitcher can replace Parra in the rotation to keep his innings down. Then, when Parra comes back into the rotation in 3 or 4 weeks, he can replace Bush or McClung.

[naivin]

Where does Sabathia go?

This is actually a good point. Whether it is Sabathia or not, I am quite confident there will be a new member of the rotation soon after the break.

[fondybrewfan]

We should drop Bush to the 18th spot. Just stretch DeFelice out and stick him in the 5th spot until we make a trade for someone. Bush could be our backup bullpen catcher, after all he was a catcher in college.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would place Parra after Sheets so that if and when Sabathia/Bedard/etc is acquired, that pitcher can replace Parra in the rotation to keep his innings down. Then, when Parra comes back into the rotation in 3 or 4 weeks, he can replace Bush or McClung.

 

You're kidding right?

 

You are not actually going to sit a pitcher who's 7-0 with a 3.04 ERA in his last 8 starts to "keep his innings down".

 

Parra's 25 years old (will be 26 right around the time he throws WS clincher), not 21. Besides that he's only on pace for around 175 innings now.

[LUKE232323]

Yeah, there is really no chance Parra gets replaced in the rotation, regardless of whether or not we acquire another starter. They aren't going to say, "well, we're in contention for the playoffs, but we're going to sit you down Manny because we don't want you to go over a certain inning criteria". Parra, barring acquiring another very good pitcher, is our 2nd best arm in the starting rotation.

[And That]

You're kidding right?

Absolutely not. Parra has never pitched more than 139 innings in a year, with 132 last year. That means his innings cap should be around 165 this year, and he's already over pace for that. And I'd like him around for the playoffs, too. And maybe... the future? Dude has a special arm, and a long history of arm problems. We need to do everything possible to have him around for at least the next 4 years, not just the rest of this season.

 

His age has nothing to do with it, his arm history does.

[LUKE232323]

He's on pace for 173 right now. He's pitched 16 starts and is on pace for 16 more. They are not going to pull him for an inning limit, especially with Gallardo out for the year and the team in contention for the playoffs. If his inning cap is 165 like you say, he's not going to be much over that anyway.

[And That]

They are not going to pull him for an inning limit

How do you know this? They pulled Gallardo out of the rotation last year. Like I said, they need Parra for 4-5 years after this one, not just the rest of this year. And we also want him to be available for the playoffs, so 175 regular season innings could lead to even more innings in the postseason.

 

[LUKE232323]

They are not going to pull him for an inning limit

How do you know this? They pulled Gallardo out of the rotation last year. Like I said, they need Parra for 4-5 years after this one, not just the rest of this year. And we also want him to be available for the playoffs, so 175 regular season innings could lead to even more innings in the postseason.

 

 

I don't "know", just making an educated prediction. I don't know why people are banking on us acquiring a top of the rotation starter, for one. Secondly, it's unlikely we run away with either the division or wild card, so Parra's services will be needed until the very end of the season. I mean, what do you think they will do, take out Parra and put Villanueva in the rotation with a wild card spot on the line, just so he won't go over a very debatable inning limit criteria? I just really highly doubt that is going to happen.

 

And age does matter in this equation. An athlete is more developed physically at 25/26 than they are at 21/22, which was the case with Gallardo.

[And That]

It should also be noted that the difference between Parra and Bush or McClung over a 3-4 start swing is negligible statistically.

 

An athlete is more developed physicall at 25/26 than they are at 21/22, which was the case with Gallardo.

 

Parra missed a lot of 2004, 2005 and 2006... he pitched under 100 innings in each of those seasons and had major shoulder surgery in 2005. I would really rather they not press the health issue with him for the long term health of his arm. A few starts here for risking many starts later = no thank you. Sure he's more physically developed, but his shoulder has a history of being in much worse shape.

[owbc]

They should set it up so Bush only pitches at Miller Park and Sheets only pitches on the road.

[jjfanec]

I don't know if this has been talked about but who is the first guy who gets pushed out of the rotation? McClung has been better overall and has done nothing to lose his spot. Bush has had some great games and some bad ones. Suppan is hitting a real rough patch as well. I think Suppan is safe for sure. That leaves McClung and Bush. I would have to say Bush is the first to go just because McClung with the exception of one start has done everything asked of him. Now he has been playing with fire, giving up too many walks and hits, but he is getting the job done. What are other people's thoughts?

[owbc]

I agree, I think Bush is the odd man out. However, he is worthwhile and would probably take some of Villanueva's role in the bullpen. I don't think it can be decided for sure--if Bush pitches poorly tonight, the decision is made, but if he goes 8 innings again, you have to think twice since McClung hasn't been going that deep into games.

 

I assume Stetter would be the one to go in the bullpen. You could make a case for Mota as well.

[LUKE232323]

Assuming Suppan is off the DL 07/22 and is in the rotation, here's how I would roll out the rotation if I'm Yost after the AS break through the Cubs series:

 

SF: Sabathia

SF: Sheets

SF: Parra

Off day: Skip McClung/Bush's start

STL: Suppan (this is the first day he is eligible to come off the DL)

STL: Sabathia

STL: Sheets

HOU: Parra

HOU: Suppan

HOU: McClung/Bush

CHC: Sabathia

CHC: Sheets

CHC: Parra

CHC: Suppan

 

Gets you Sabathia/Sheets/Parra in five of our first six games out of the break, and gets us Sabathia/Sheets both against the Cubs and Cardinals. I was trying to align it so you could throw all three against both the Cards and Cubs, but wasn't having much success (I believe you'd have to skip a Parra start to have him throw against both the Cards/Cubs, but could be wrong). It should also be noted that assuming no one is skipped and there are no injuries, the Cubs will go 1-2-3-4 in their rotation against us.

[alwz4gbp]

Very well thought out Luke. This rotation for the rest of the year should scare the crap out of whoever we play!!! However, as was mentioned elsewhere in this forum, maybe even this thread, we need to start looking at possibly limiting Parras innings. I'm all for using him against St. Louis, Cubs, etc but I'd be tempted to skip him against some of the lesser teams like San Fran. Agree?

 

 

Edit: Eliminated unnecessary long nested quote. - Toby

[LUKE232323]

If you skip him against San Fran and throw him in game 1 of the Cards series, then you have to skip another start of his to get him to pitch in the Cubs series, because there would be five games after his start vs. the Cards until the Cubs series.