Nelson or Errecart

[Hate those Rodents]

Which prospect is more likely to be an everyday, productive MLB first baseman? Which would have greater trade value?

[battlekow]

Nelson has much better plate discpline and is left-handed, so I'll take him. Neither has a great chance, though. As for trade value, it depends on the team, I suppose. Some might be wary of Nelson's past stagnation and prefer the newer face riding on the coattails of Huntsville's fame, while others might prefer Nelson because, as I said, he's simply the better player.

[pogokat]

they'll both have big league careers...

 

i'd take nelson as well, just because he seems to have become a better hitter through his struggles...Errecart would be big news or some teams though

[dadofandrew]

Neither is the correct answer.

 

Nelson might have a Mark Sweeney like utility career, however.

[And That]

Which prospect is more likely to be an everyday, productive MLB first baseman? Which would have greater trade value?

Neither is the correct answer.

"Neither" is in fact not the correct answer to an odds scenario involving two options.

 

I like Nelson better because he's shown the ability to hit for average, power and draw walks at points in his career, though they haven't always been the same point. He's also left-handed and has success and in AAA, unlike Errecart on both accounts. So I'd place a bet on Nelson.

[joshua502000]

Word around Algona is that this is the first year since Nelson broke his hamate that he has not felt any weakness in his grip. Also this is the first year that the hitting coach is not trying to "fix" his swing allowing him to be more comfortable at the plate. I know that living in his home town makes me biased but I still vote for Brad on this one.

[DHonks]

As of now I'd expect Nelson to make the brewers in '09 as a 1b/OF/ph with pop.

[ILuvDaBush]

1B/OF/PH with pop from the left side? Gross begat Branyan who begat...

[Brian the Automator]

Word around Algona is that this is the first year since Nelson broke his hamate that he has not felt any weakness in his grip. Also this is the first year that the hitting coach is not trying to "fix" his swing allowing him to be more comfortable at the plate. I know that living in his home town makes me biased but I still vote for Brad on this one.

If that's really the case (regarding the hamate), that's pretty huge news. Brad was really on his way before the hamate injury. I hope the Brewers can deal him to a team that can use him, as it's time for him to get his shot. Great kid as well.

 

[DHonks]

I also was perusing Nelson's stats and see he has more walks than K's. Always a rare, yet nice sign and potential indicator for success. And I see he's still 25. If he'd gone to college and gotten drafted then, being in AAA at this age would be normal.

[igor67]

Given the historical performance and the fact that one can legitimately point to injury as a past cause I like Brad better as well. Errecart is younger, but would have to go a ways on improving his contact rate to be a true force in the big leagues. I could see Nelson having a Matt Stairs like career very easily where he has a couple of big years seemingly out of now where because he finally gets his shot right in his prime years, and then can still hang around as an effective hitter.

[Crewin06]

Has the prospects the Brewers have been turning out blinded us to the true potential of some of our minor leaguers??

 

Take away the rest of the Huntsville talent and Errecart has the 3rd best OPS in the Southern League and the youngest out of the top 5 players in OPS. Maybe he is a product of the lineup, but still the guy is putting up huge numbers.

 

As for Brad Nelson. A .300 BA and .900 OPS combined with less K's than Walks is pretty impressive at AAA. He needs to get a shot somewhere.

 

I think both will be starting Major Leauguers somewhere.

 

If I had to choose one now though I would have to go with Nelson. The Left handed bat along with the plate discipline put him over the top. Does anyone know how either are rated defensively?

[battlekow]

Nelson gets picked for the Freely Available Talent All-Stars team getting put together by Marc Hulet at Baseball Analysts:

Still only 25, it seems like Brad Nelson has been around forever, and he was even considered to be among Milwaukee's top prospects at one point. After struggling the past few years, Nelson is back on track this year and provides power and a solid approach at the plate that has allowed him to rack up more walks than strikeouts. He is currently hitting .326/.436/.540.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I can't wait for Nelson's big league debut in September.

[splitterpfj]

I had a scout tell me yesterday that after watching Huntsville recently, he'd recommend Errecart to be included in any deal. Until he said that, I hadn't paid any attention to Errecart this season, he does indeed look like a solid prospect.

[dadofandrew]

Errecart K's once every 4 AB's versus guys who rarely throw a breaking ball for a strike. If he does make it, his rise will be slow.

[endaround]

Nelson right now is a better option than basically anybody the Mariners are running out in LF, 1B or DH. And until Ichiro was moved back, it was RF too.

[JoeHova]

No, I don't agree with that. Ibanez is clearly a better hitter than Nelson is at this point. A .921 OPS in AAA MLE's to a .750 or so ML OPS in a neutral park. Ibanez is putting up a neutralized .790.

 

Nelson may have a future, but it's hard to totally ignore 5 years of terrible hitting (for a 1st baseman, if he was a shortstop it would be a different story) even if he does have an injury excuse. I don't think he's much of an asset at this point, so I'd rather have Errecart. I don't think either one will amount to all that much, but Errecart is 2 years younger so I'll take him.

 

and it's funny to bring up Errecart's K problems in defense of Nelson, who has also routinely struck out 1 time every 4 AB's in his career.

[JoeHova]

Nelson has much better plate discpline

 

 

much better? Their career Iso's are .079 vs. .077. Sure, Nelson's is better than that this year, but it was much worse last year, so I don't know that you can point to a definite improvement moreso than just random variation.

[endaround]

Except they are running Ibanez out in the field and he can't play the field at all anymore. Now if they had Ibanez at DH that would be one thing. But Nelson really should be moved to the Mariners or Nationals or Royals and just give him a chance since he couldn't even DH ahead of Gwynn in Milwaukee.