Where do you rank JJ Hardy among MLB Shortstops?/Hardy named NL Player of the Week (reply #91)

[sbrylski]

Uecker just called him "J.J.H.H."

 

"James Jerry Hot Hardy"

[GB12]

It always surprises me when people say Hardy is a below average fielder because when I watch games he always make the routine plays and makes some really nice plays as well. I know that stats back up that he is average or below but when I watch the game he looks good. It must be hard for me to judge range

He is leading NL shortstops in fielding percentage

[cnycerveceros]

It always surprises me when people say Hardy is a below average fielder because when I watch games he always make the routine plays and makes some really nice plays as well. I know that stats back up that he is average or below but when I watch the game he looks good. It must be hard for me to judge range

He is leading NL shortstops in fielding percentage

I think Hardy gets the short end of the stick too much here primarily because this is a team built on offense. Relative to the other guys I don't think Hardy is ever going to be a juggernaut, but he doesn't have to be if guys like Braun and Fielder do what they are capable of. If he just hits .270 with 15 to 20hrs and he keeps playing above average defense then he's doing exactly what he's supposed to.

 

[igor67]

For what it's worth JJ nad Prince now have identical OPS totals with JJ having the OBP edge.

[brewizard]

He is leading NL shortstops in fielding percentage

 

I think defensive stats are hard to quantify. When I see Hardy, I see a really capable SS. He rarely flubs the plays that a few other players tend to flub. But I'm not quoting stats to prove it. I don't know. I feel comfortable with Hardy at SS.

 

I think the thing with Hardy is that when he's healthy, he's as good as anybody. Is he the single best SS in baseball? Probably not. Hardy started off cold, but then he was coming off a brutal virus-like mystery illness he caught the last week of Spring Training. Then, his shoulder was hurting him for a while, all while batting 7th in front of the pitcher during Ned's lineup tinkering phase. Finally, he's healthy, locked in at the 2-spot where he did so well last year, and look at him go...

 

I think Hardy is a very good player, a team-guy who the Brewers should keep around.

[kramnoj]

It always surprises me when people say Hardy is a below average fielder because when I watch games he always make the routine plays and makes some really nice plays as well. I know that stats back up that he is average or below but when I watch the game he looks good. It must be hard for me to judge range

He is leading NL shortstops in fielding percentage

 

FP isn't really a great defensive stat. It only measures balls you get to. It doesn't measure how many plays you are making compared to other SS.

[GB12]

Yeah, I don't really like fielding % or any defensive stats, but the guy I quoted said the stats show he is below average which is not true.

[endaround]

Hardy is a solid starting short stop. He's having a great two weeks. But just like Jason Kendall had a great 1st two weeks and then hit ike Jason Kendall, Hardy will return agin to hitting like Hardy.

 

And no Hardy will not move off of short stop. And if forced to move you'll hear constant rumours about how terrible an idea it is making Hall's trade request look milquetoast in comparison. He's not going to give up $12 m a year to get $6 m a year to be a below average 3B

[kramnoj]

Yeah, I don't really like fielding % or any defensive stats, but the guy I quoted said the stats show he is below average which is not true.

 

Zone Rating shows that he is below average. I linked a study based on last year in the Stats forum that showed that Hardy was almost 12 runs below average last year.

 

He's not bad enough that it's a worry, but there is enough evidence that I wouldn't be pushing for an extension.

[futurefan]

Escobar is a much better defender

 Escobar, Alcides .281 68 231 38 65 79 8 0 2 24 6 1 4 20 0 44 20 9 6 .342 .348 0 0 0 66 0 0 <span style="color: rgb(204, 0, 51);">22</span> 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't know how anyone can complain about Hardy's defense. The reason his fielding percentage is so high is because he makes every play he should. Sure, he doesn't make all of the spectacular plays, but he's well above average when it comes to defense among MLB Shortstops because of his arm. Remember, he threw a 93 mph fastball in high school. Those of you not happy with Hardy's defense are nit picking.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

The other thing is that Hardy is a player the advanced defensive metrics really struggle with because of the extent of shifting the Brewers employ. We know he doesn't have outstanding range, yet he is lapping the field in OOZ plays over at Hardball Times. Okay, so that's exaggeration, but he is in first place out of all major league shortstops:

link

Given his strengths and weaknesses, he should be a guy with an extremely high RZR (measures balls in his zone), but a subpar number of OOZ plays (measures plays made he wasn't supposed to be able to make). Yet, the reverse is true.

I'm not 100% clear on how UZR, which dislikes Hardy, handles this problem. But I know that there isn't a metric yet that does a good job accounting for shifts.

[kramnoj]

I don't know how anyone can complain about Hardy's defense. The reason his fielding percentage is so high is because he makes every play he should. Sure, he doesn't make all of the spectacular plays, but he's well above average when it comes to defense among MLB Shortstops because of his arm. Remember, he threw a 93 mph fastball in high school. Those of you not happy with Hardy's defense are nit picking.

 

Because play-by-play stats that look at the number of plays that SS makes and the plays that Hardy makes show that Hardy makes fewer plays than average. It's that simple. For those who don't trust available defensive stats can listen to scouts who observe that Hardy has lost a step defensively.

 

It's not nitpicking to say that Hardy's range is below average. The job of a SS is to have a wide range to get to a lot of balls. Hardy's strengths right now are making plays on balls he gets to and a great arm. That's a great description for a 3B. Those strengths won't overcome a player whose range is inferior to others who play his position.

 

A lot of Yankee fans refuse to believe that Jeter is inferior defensively because he makes the plays on balls he gets to, but they can't see that he gets to fewer balls than opponents SS. Hardy's range isn't so bad that it's noticeable in casual observation, but there is enough evidence out there to support that he isn't above average defensively.

[TooLiveBrew]

[Your notion] would have prevented Yount from being in the majors when he was 20 years old.

 

That was a different era. Yount was probably rushed (& likely could have benefitted from some time in the minors), but then again the standards & methods of evaluation were different then. Yount was regarded as an elite prospect (& from day one, no less), Escobar is not. The rules are different for guys like Yount. It's very important for us to keep that in mind when discussing Escobar imo.

 

"In 1974, at the age of 18, he became the Brewers regular shortsop, thus becoming one of the youngest everyday players in history. In 1975 teammate Henry Aaron called him the best prospect in baseball." (link to source)

 

That ('75) was Yount's age 19 season. Yount-Escobar is apples to oranges.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

defensive stats can listen to scouts who observe that Hardy has lost a step defensively.

Lost a step? I didn't realize when you hit age 25 you start to decline.

[endaround]

Its not age, its due to the fact he makes Sheets look like Cal Ripken when it comes to injuries.

[brewizard]

I still think his best season is ahead of him. I think Hardy is settled into the league and comfortable on the team and ready to play. Will he always be this hot? No. Is he a lousy SS? No.

 

He's solid. Above average. The guy can play. Is Escobar really going to be better next year? Cheaper, yes, but better?

[obobo55]

2008 splits (not including 7/4)

 

Question for the board--How much is this just batting 2nd vs hitting 7th (in front of pitcher) and how much is just a hot streak?

 

He now has 105 PAs in the 2-hole with a .991 OPS.

 

I am of the opinion that JJ has played through a number of aches and pains which have limited his effectiveness, but the team had no viable alternatives. I think he could be just scratching the surface of his abilities and would not be against signing him long-term. The question then becomes one like this:

1. What is his worth as a SS?
2. What would he fetch in trade?
3. Could you sign him cheap enough where a move to 2nd/3rd would be worth it as his defensive ability fades?

I do like the thought of turning over SS duties to Alcides in a few years, so paying top dollar for JJ at short doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. But if you could sign him now for a decent deal, bring Escobar up in May/June next year to give JJ a breather at times and slide Hardy to a different position by '10, it could work out real well. At the same time, if teams are willing to deal a lot for JJ's services at SS, that is something you need to consider as well.

[logan82]

obobo55 wrote

Question for the board--How much is this just batting 2nd vs hitting 7th (in front of pitcher) and how much is just a hot streak?

Just a hot streak. Hardy had better stats in the 8 hole last year than he did in the 2 hole. Batting order doesn't matter and protection is a myth.

[kramnoj]

defensive stats can listen to scouts who observe that Hardy has lost a step defensively.

Lost a step? I didn't realize when you hit age 25 you start to decline.

It doesn't matter what most people do at 25. It matters what Hardy is doing. And just to make an athletic comparison, tennis players peak before age 25, because so much relies upon first quick step. It wouldn't be unfathomable to say that Hardy has already lost a step.

Yount was regarded as an elite prospect (& from day one, no less), Escobar is not. The rules are different for guys like Yount. It's very important for us to keep that in mind when discussing Escobar imo.

 

Escobar is certainly regarded as elite prospect when it comes to his defensive capabilities. And that's the point I was making. To say that Escobar is not MLB ready and to totally ignore his defense makes no sense whatsoever.

 

That ('75) was Yount's age 19 season. Yount-Escobar is apples to oranges.

 

You specifically said that a player that is in the bottom third of starters offensively isn't MLB ready. You didn't put any qualifications on there, so age doesn't really matter to your statement.

[jjfanec]

Who are the scouts that say Hardy has lost a step? I believe that they are out there I am just wondering because I just got MLBtv and every opposing team announcer has raved about Hardy's defense. Now, I know announcers are not always the best talent evaluators but they do see a lot of players and they have not been afraid to criticize guys like Weeks, or Prince.

[TooLiveBrew]

You specifically said that a player that is in the bottom third of starters offensively isn't MLB ready. You didn't put any qualifications on there, so age doesn't really matter to your statement.

 

It's not the age, it's the caliber of prospect. I was only illustrating that Yount was regarded as a ridiculously good SS at age 19. That's all. Yount is a different animal. He was kept in the bigs because he could handle it, and at a young age was projected to be very good for a long time. Escobar is a good SS prospect, and I don't dislike that, but as best I'd seen, the jury was still out on Escobar's bat. We know his D is good enough (if not moreso) for the bigs. I just don't think you can compare the two.

 

Mostly this boils down to what we think of as MLB ready. If Escobar can get on base enough, I'd think he's ready. I would just hate to see a year of his service time wasted (I think he will be a good player) so he can hit .280/.325/.365. Maybe I'm being too harsh. I think that with a full (or almost full) season in Nashville, he'd be ready to hit MLB pitching. Weeks & Hardy are still here, so there's no need to rush him -- though I agree that trade scenarios may change that.

[kramnoj]

Who are the scouts that say Hardy has lost a step? I believe that they are out there I am just wondering because I just got MLBtv and every opposing team announcer has raved about Hardy's defense. Now, I know announcers are not always the best talent evaluators but they do see a lot of players and they have not been afraid to criticize guys like Weeks, or Prince.

 

It's not common for the scouts that get quoted to be named, but there was one scout quote in one of the recent articles listed about trade rumors that say that Hardy has lost a step defensively.

[silversurferr]

I cannot expain why he rates with substandard range on the metrics, but I watch nearly every game and do not see much getting by him into the hole or up the middle. I never see a ball hit by him, and then think that a supposed great fielding shortstop like Reyes would have got to it. JJ never fumbles stuff, and I regularly see him turn bad or tricky hops into routine outs. He has marvelous hands and a great arm. I hope they are considering moving him to second; I will gladly take a middle infielder sure hands and average range over flashy range and mediocre consistence. Also, NOTHING IS MORE DEMORALIZING TO A PITCHER AND DEFENSIVE TEAMMATES THAN AN INFIELDER THAT KICKS ROUTINE GROUNDERS!!!!! Which is what I have seen from Reyes and Ramirez. Consistency comes from mental toughness and concentration. JJ brings that every game. Plus he has good power for an infielder. And, apparently, he is a good teammate. Other than his injury probs, and a strange lack of speed, you are NUTS if you do not love this guy.

[endaround]

Doesn't this uber hot streak prove Hardy isn't consistent?