Compare Gwynn and Brantley

[badgerpat]

I am interested to here how people that have seen Gwynn Jr and Brantley play compare the two. Which one would you be more likely to trade or would you trade both?

[dadofandrew]

To mention them in the same sentence is ridiculous. Gwynn might well be a starting CF, or more likely a platoon guy or reserve. Brantley is doing very well at a level Gwynn struggled at when he was older...he's very young for his level and performing excellent.

 

Tony's D is better, but Brantley is levels above as a prospect.

[TheCrew07]

Gwynn is the better defender, and to quote another poster "Brantley is everything we hoped Gwynn would be offensively".

 

Gwynn has no starter value for the Brewers, because he doesn't hit for enough power, and doesn't carry a high enough OBP. He'll always be a backup in Milwaukee and thus his greatest value is as a trade asset. I really like Brantley as a future lead off hitter and CF and hope he sticks around, but if he ends up getting traded that would be fine as his value to the big club is replaceable, Hart can play CF short term, and 1 of Cain, Ford, Haydel, Dykstra will likely turn into a MLB player.

[sbrylski]

Brantley>>>Gwynn

 

Minor League Totals

Gwynn - .274 / .352 / .344 / .696

Brantley - .314 / .403 / .374 / .777

 

And Brantley has been a year younger at each level. Comparatively, Brantley's easily better in most aspects at the plate.

 

The concern with both has been their lack of power. Players without power see their OBP fall as the advance to higher levels. Gwynn's statistics definitely suggest he will never be a good offensive player in the bigs because, despite the stereotype, he doesn't make enough contact. When more advanced pitchers start to attack the zone to take advantage of his lack of power, the hitter has to spin that around and start slapping or lining them all over the park. Gwynn doesn't really have that ability; he has struck out ~14% of the time in the minors.

 

Brantley, on the other hand, is both still young enough to grow into an acceptable level of power (he has shown a little improvement so far this year), and seems to have to ability to take advantage of aggressive pitchers: he holds a much higher batting average and is very difficult to strike out. He's a very fundamental and "professional" hitter with an "advanced understanding" of the strike zone. His strikeout rate (~9%) and walk rate (~13%) are both better than Gwynn's and very solid compared to just about any minor league hitter.

 

I think Brantley still has to keep progressing and take at least another step forward before he can be projected as a great OBPing leadoff batter, but his potential is just that, while Gwynn's has always generally been 4th outfielder.

[adambr2]

Brantley with Gwynn's defense would probably be our leadoff man and CF for the next 10 years.

[gregmag]

Man -- I saw this thread title and said to myself, "duck," but those are some great observations, from several different angles. I would just add that I really don't feel like I have a good basis for assessing Brantley's D in CF. Toby has mentioned, I think on several occasions, that Brantley has a weak arm, but I've also heard people say that dumb organizational decisions, and not Brantley's limitations, are what kept him out of CF this year. Defense is notoriously hard to measure, but I would love to hear some concrete (qualitative or quantitative) observations about either player's D.

 

Greg.

[And That]

Brantley certainly should have gotten more playing time in the outfield the past few season because he's not really the instinctive outfielder that Gwynn is. Brantley's arm is what it is, which limits him to CF or LF and his range makes him more of a LF, IMO. And even if Brantley can wind up playing a passable CF, I'm tired of our major league defense being just passable. I'd rather have a good defender in CF long term and I think there are much better options in the organization for that task than Brantley.

[gregmag]

Toby, with all due respect -- and I know you know a lot more about this stuff than I do -- that sounds a bit conclusory, like you're more interested in slamming the door on people who think you're underrating Brantley than in squarely assessing his pros and cons. Maybe I'm just missing something that's as clear as you make it out to be, but I don't see any actual information in your post that warrants your summary dismissal of Brantley as "a good defender" in CF who is some distance from being even "passable." Again, your depth of knowledge and proven track record of good judgment makes me believe you're more likely right than wrong about this, but I would love more to go on if you or anyone else have it.

 

Here are some things I, as someone who doesn't get to watch Brantley play and hasn't seen any detailed defensive stats on him, would like to know more about. Is his arm weak, inaccurate, or both? Exceptionally weak, or just close to average; exceptionally inaccurate, or just close to average? How are we measuring range, and what are the deficiencies in his range -- lateral, getting back on balls, what? Has he improved generally, or specifically in CF this year, has he regressed, or do we have good reasons to think WYSIWYG? Does he display indifference to defense, or is he a guy who might compensate with hustle for a deficit of physical ability? He steals bases, which suggests he's fast . . . but maybe he's just a smart baserunner. Does he have the kind of speed that helps guys play CF, and if so, has he shown any ability or inclination to harness it there? Have guys in the organization, opposing managers, or anyone else said anything emphatic about the state of his defense?

 

I'm a longtime Brantley supporter, but I think everybody is now; the question is how much to like him. I've tried to frame these questions as objectively as I can, starting from the assumption that Toby's negative assessment of Brantley's defense is most likely valid. In other words, I don't mean to stack the deck here, and if anybody thinks that my questions don't allow for recognizing Brantley's deficiencies, I hope to be corrected. Also, I apologize if my questions seem like challenges, as if I'm suggesting someone else has to prove something to me. I don't mean it that way at all; I'm starting from a position of substantial ignorance and would genuinely appreciate further guidance.

 

Greg.

[Postseason2006]

He's a Juan Pierre heavy.

[pogokat]

Brantley's arm is weaker than all the players that surround him...lorenzo cain, stephen chapman, cole gillespie, darren ford, and matt laporta all have better throwing arms than brantley...which is not to say his is bad, i'd just say he's right around average...i personally thought michael was slow when i saw him in WV in 2006...but that prognosis seems to have changed...i can't imagine he's got much more than slightly above average speed..

 

perhaps the hardest part in gauging his defense is that it's almost impossible to catch him actually playing in CF...in the 5-7 times i saw him play the field in WV, he never played CF...when I saw him in AA he was the DH...i think the fact that he hasn't played there much causes all of this conjecture...

 

it's a whole lot easier to priase or flame Gamel and Escobar's defense because they actually play the positions in question...Brantley just hasn't played that much CF...which is part of why this argument continues...

 

the only person who has ever really praised Brantley's defense is his agent...

 

it would be awesome if we culd get a full scouting report from Sickels...i suggest you email him..for everyone's sake..

[battlekow]

Brantley's arm is weaker than Gillespie's, but still around average? That means that Gillespie's arm is average or above, which I find hard to believe given his surgery and the fact that he's essentially limited to LF because of it.

[pogokat]

im no scout...and i could easily be off on both gillespie and brantley...but my observations match up with baseball america's...they said Brantley "often gets bad breaks on balls and has a below average arm"...in this yearrs handbook..

 

so i was maybe generous with him..

[battlekow]

I'm not surprised that Brantley has a below-average arm, but I'm surprised that it would be noticeably worse than Gillespie's. I just thought that Gillespie had a really weak arm from what I'd read.

[agent39]

Brantley does not have a below average arm. Take that for what it's worth coming from me :P