Being realistic - A.J. Burnett seems like the right choice

[twobrewers]

I just don't see the Brewers going after C.C. or Bedard. Melvin loves his prospects, and even though a few are blocked - I doubt he is willing to trade Gamel, Jeffress, LaPorta, Escobar, Salome, or even Brantley for a 3 month rental.

 

The problem is C.C. is going to be a Type A free agent, meaning whoever loses him will net two high draft picks. So C.C.'s starting price is at least two top prospects.

 

In my opinion, the player who makes the most sense is A.J. Burnett.

 

- He is planning to opt out of his contract this year. So Toronto is motivated to move him. (He has a player option for $12 in '09 and '10)

- He was only a B Free Agent last year. With a down year again this year, he might not even receive draft picks (Hence, much cheaper)

- He still has 9K/9IP

- Toronto could really use some bats.

 

Gillispie plus a few throw ins, such as Nelson, might be enough. Burnett would be an upgrade to our rotation. (You have to figure going from AL East to NL Central will help) And he adds significant depth in case of injury or Seth McClung returning.

 

The problem - he has a limited no trade clause to 15(!) teams. I would say there is a good chance Milwaukee is on that list. However, as he hopes to opt out - he might be motivated to boost his numbers pitching in the weaker NL Central that facing the AL East for the rest of the season. Players are always willing to negotiate their no trade clauses.

 

I just don't see a huge trade happening at the deadline when we are only in 3rd in our division.

[tony2sweet]

Sign me up for Burnett and while your at it Scott Rollen. I like your prospect package but would also be willing to throw in Bill Hall to get it done.

[dadofandrew]

Burnett is a classic underachiever, but he is solid. I believe his option years become guaranteed if he is dealt. $12M is not out of the ballpark for AJ, but he has not been healthy and dependable either.

[nate82]

Burnett is a classic underachiever, but he is solid. I believe his option years become guaranteed if he is dealt. $12M is not out of the ballpark for AJ, but he has not been healthy and dependable either.

Burnett has a player option for next year. If he sucks he takes his salary if he is awesome he walks and tries out the market.

 

[And That]

From Cot's, I don't see anything about option years:

 

A.J. Burnett rhp

5 years/$55M (2006-10)

• signed as a free agent 12/05
• $6M signing bonus

• 06:$1M, 07:$12M, 08:$12M, 09:$12M, 10:$12M
• Burnett may opt out of the contract after 2008
• limited no-trade clause allowing Burnett to block deals to 15 clubs

• deal includes 8 round-trip limousine trips per season between Toronto & Burnett's Maryland home for his wife

• 1 year/$3.65M (2005), avoided arbitration 1/05
• • [li]
  $0.15M in performance bonuses:
  
• • [li]
  $50,000 each for 190, 200 & 210 IP

[/li]

[/li]

1 year/$2.5M (2004), avoided arbitration 12/03 1 year/$2.5M (2003), lost arbitration 2/03 ($3.075M-$2.5M) 1 year/$0.3675M (2002) agent: Darek Braunecker & Mark Rodgers

ML service: 8.038 He's pitched 200 innings twice in eight full big league seasons... when he's on, he's good, but he's often not on the mound. Paying him $30 million for 2.5 years in which we might get anywhere between 200 and 500 innings from him seems like a bit too much of a risk for me, but it's not my money.

[endaround]

From Cot's, I don't see anything about option years:

 

A.J. Burnett rhp

5 years/$55M (2006-10)

• signed as a free agent 12/05
• $6M signing bonus

• 06:$1M, 07:$12M, 08:$12M, 09:$12M, 10:$12M
• Burnett may opt out of the contract after 2008
• limited no-trade clause allowing Burnett to block deals to 15 clubs

• deal includes 8 round-trip limousine trips per season between Toronto & Burnett's Maryland home for his wife

• 1 year/$3.65M (2005), avoided arbitration 1/05
• • [li]
  $0.15M in performance bonuses:
  
• • [li]
  $50,000 each for 190, 200 & 210 IP

[/li]

[/li]

1 year/$2.5M (2004), avoided arbitration 12/03 1 year/$2.5M (2003), lost arbitration 2/03 ($3.075M-$2.5M) 1 year/$0.3675M (2002) agent: Darek Braunecker & Mark Rodgers

ML service: 8.038 He's pitched 200 innings twice in eight full big league seasons... when he's on, he's good, but he's often not on the mound. Paying him $30 million for 2.5 years in which we might get anywhere between 200 and 500 innings from him seems like a bit too much of a risk for me, but it's not my money.

Burnett may opt out of the contract after 2008

 

Right there

[tigerbrew]

I would pass on A.J. Burnett, he's undependable and not worth the money.

[And That]

Correct, he may opt out of his contract after this year. But there are no option years (unless you consider '09 and '10 a package set), and no option years guaranteed if he is traded.

[dadofandrew]

May opt out rather than $ guaranteed, I guess.

[And That]

Milwaukee also might be on his list of 15, though he seems to want out of Toronto pretty badly.

[tigerbrew]

May opt out rather than $ guaranteed, I guess.

Good luck to Burnett if he opts out of his contract, I seriously doubt he will get $12M for next year given his history. I think teams might not even offer him $10M for next season.

[nate82]

Good luck to Burnett if he opts out of his contract, I seriously doubt he will get $12M for next year given his history. I think teams might not even offer him $10M for next season.

Once Sheets and Sabathia are off the market it comes down to Penny and Burnett on the market as the next best pitchers available. He could get $10M+ in the free agent market next year.

 

[dadofandrew]

If Suppan and Padilla got $10M+, I'd say AJ might get $15M on the FA market. As stated, he'll be just below Sheets.

[SeriesFinale]

I just don't see the Brewers going after C.C. or Bedard. Melvin loves his prospects, and even though a few are blocked - I doubt he is willing to trade Gamel, Jeffress, LaPorta, Escobar, Salome, or even Brantley for a 3 month rental.

He traded two of his best pitching prospects near the deadline last year for a 3 month rental. I don't think he's incapable of dealing a couple more of higher caliber for a higher-caliber rental this year.

[bjkrautk]

Once Sheets and Sabathia are off the market it comes down to Penny and Burnett on the market as the next best pitchers available. He could get $10M+ in the free agent market next year.

 

 

So, which would you rather have?

- 2 yrs, $24 million, or

- 4 yrs, $30+ million

 

...with the poor FA crop on the market, I'd be awfully willing to take my chances. On the other hand, a few bad years with the Blue Jays may make him willing to stick with a team that looks like it's going to be a winner for the next 2 years.

 

Also, it needs be said that there is an injury concern with Burnett, who has missed 10+ starts in each of the previous 2 seasons with injuries to his pitching arm. He's only made 30+ starts once.

 

A.J. would be an even easier player to pick up if Ricciardi were to get fired before the deadline. A new GM - even an interim one - would be more willing to blow things up and move mediocre/bad contracts for prospects.

[endaround]

Good luck to Burnett if he opts out of his contract, I seriously doubt he will get $12M for next year given his history. I think teams might not even offer him $10M for next season.

Once Sheets and Sabathia are off the market it comes down to Penny and Burnett on the market as the next best pitchers available. He could get $10M+ in the free agent market next year.

 

The Dodgers have an option on Penny for $8.75 million with a $2m buyout. Meaning the marginal cost of keeping him is just $6.75m. He's not going to be a free agent unless he gets severely injured.

 

[LouisEly]

I don't like the words "player option". As stated earlier, that means doing well = opting out, doing poorly = stay and take a huge paycheck for lousy performance. Lose/lose there. And if he does opt out, does the team receive any compensation if he leaves?

 

Unless Toronto is willing to pay a significant chunk of his contract if he doesn't opt out, I think I'd rather have the rental and take the picks if the rental leaves.

[Oldcity]

The problem is C.C. is going to be a Type A free agent, meaning whoever loses him will net two high draft picks. So C.C.'s starting price is at least two top prospects.

I disagree with that. Two top prospects are worth a lot more than two high draft picks, because high draft picks aren't a sure thing to become good MLB prospects, much less MLB players. For example, Gamel and Salome are worth a lot more than two comp picks.

As far as Burnett is concerned, I'd be worried that he would not opt out of his deal and the Brewers might be stuck with his contract for next season if he's no good. I don't think he's that good; he walks too many guys.

[endaround]

Again, people ignore the savings Cleveland gets if they trade Sabathia instead of letting him leave. The get like $5m in salary relief plus $1-2m in draft bonues they don't have to pay. $6-7m isn't chump change.

[nate82]

So, which would you rather have?

- 2 yrs, $24 million, or

- 4 yrs, $30+ million

If Burnett pitches good for the rest of the season he is going to opt out and he will get 5 yrs $80 million. If he pitches poorly he is still guaranteed $24 million. Its a win win situation for Burnett and a losing situation for the Brewers. I just don't like Burnett and the way things could possibly go. I would rather take the sure two picks and take Sabathia than take an unsure thing in Burnett which could be a disastorous outcome for the Brewers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I agree with your last post, endaround, high end draft choices aren't too cheap, and if injuries/ineffectiveness causes the picks to be flameouts, they can really hurt teams on a tighter budget.

 

Comp picks are good things to have, but they also aren't nearly as valuable as top tier prospects who have already proven that they are more than capable of being good MLB players when their time arrives. Factor in many scouts' takes that the 09 draft is looking pretty weak overall, and those comp picks are worth even less compared to a stud AA prospect.

[Brian the Automator]

I disagree with that. Two top prospects are worth a lot more than two high draft picks, because high draft picks aren't a sure thing to become good MLB prospects, much less MLB players. For example, Gamel and Salome are worth a lot more than two comp picks.

...and that's not to mention that the signing club already took care of the signing bonus.

 

[mothershipconnection]

The get like $5m in salary relief plus $1-2m in draft bonues they don't have to pay. $6-7m isn't chump change.

 

That's always important and seemingly overlooked. If you get a top prospect who'd cost $3MM as a signing bonus, you didn't just get the player, you also saved that $3MM. That's also a cost a team has to factor in when trading prospects. Not only is this a good young player who will be cheap for his first 6 years, but you also have the cost of a mansion invested in him.

[auscar]

Toronto Sun says Jays are looking for a SS in return for Burnett.

"They're offering Burnett to any team that needs pitching," said an American League general manager. "They've told us they're not happy with either David Eckstein or John McDonald."

Would Bill Hall get it done? Would it be worth breaking up 3B platoon?

[Brian the Automator]

Toronto Sun says Jays are looking for a SS in return for Burnett.

"They're offering Burnett to any team that needs pitching," said an American League general manager. "They've told us they're not happy with either David Eckstein or John McDonald."

Would Bill Hall get it done? Would it be worth breaking up 3B platoon?

I'd be happy with Dillon being Branyan's platoon partner in the short term. Seems like a trade that would work for both teams.

And not happy with Dave Eckstein? Who would have seen that one coming?