Trading with Baltimore

[crossface21]

Just tossing this one out there: Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwynn Jr., Zack Jackson for Brian Roberts and Jeremy Guthrie. Don't know if Baltimore would go for this with Guthrie in there, but feel free to switch Jackson for another pitcher, or even throw in another lower level pitcher to get the deal done. That would give the Crew a viable leadoff hitter that knows how to hit, we don't have a downgrade in fielding, and it gets us that other pitcher we need to get over the hump in the second half. We would also have a fighting chance to resign Guthrie, unlike with Sabathia.

[trwi7]

That's a pretty terrible deal for Baltimore. Roberts for Weeks is in our favor on talent and production, they have no need for Gwynn with Jones there for a long time and there's only one team that is dumb enough to play a slap hitting outfielder in a corner, the Dodgers. Zach Jackson is just terrible.

[dadofandrew]

The O's would save a ton of money, and the Brewers would not improve at all.

 

I'll pass.

[Brian the Automator]

I can't imagine the O's doing this ... ZachJack and Gwynn are throw-ins at this point.

[JoeHova]

Weeks is too much to give up for Roberts, as much as it pains me to say that. Weeks is much better than Roberts was at the same point in their careers, and Roberts is 5 years older and a lot more expensive.

 

The deal might (might) help this year, but it would be regretted in the future.

[dadofandrew]

Gwynn is not a throw in for many teams, but the O's have no use for him, with Adam Jones growing into the CF spot.

[alwz4gbp]

WOW, thats quite a disparity of opinions!!!! I say, if we can get Brian Roberts, get him. He may very well put us over the top!!!!!!!

[Greg Pappas]

Just tossing this one out there: Rickie Weeks, Tony Gwynn Jr., Zack Jackson for Brian Roberts and Jeremy Guthrie. Don't know if Baltimore would go for this with Guthrie in there, but feel free to switch Jackson for another pitcher, or even throw in another lower level pitcher to get the deal done. That would give the Crew a viable leadoff hitter that knows how to hit, we don't have a downgrade in fielding, and it gets us that other pitcher we need to get over the hump in the second half. We would also have a fighting chance to resign Guthrie, unlike with Sabathia.

I wanted to say hello to everyone first and foremost...

 

My name is Greg Pappas, owner/creator of MLB-Draft.com and regular poster at OriolesHangout.com, Baltimore's premiere Orioles fan forum.

 

I have been following the Brewers as well as all teams throughout the league for a couple of years now, going from casual fan to a bit more hardcore.

 

I joined for a number of reasons, but mainly to discuss openly with great Brewer fans the potential of making deals between the two clubs, how much you value your talent and conversely... ours.

 

As far as crossface21's post/trade idea... I can assure you that the Orioles value both BRob and Guthrie a great deal, fairly so, and while we would like to have a guy like Weeks on the team, the Orioles wouldn't make that trade for either Guthrie OR Roberts alone, much less both.

 

Among the trade discussions at the OriolesHangout (OH), many focus on the potential availability of Alcides Escobar, and also how we might match up in an attempt to acquire one of Gamel or LaPorta. We value these players pretty highly, fairly so, and would like to see something work out between us.

 

Your thoughts?

[KCBrewerfan34]

Welcome aboard Pappas. Doesn't McPhail overvalue all of his players?

[Greg Pappas]

Welcome aboard Pappas. Doesn't McPhail overvalue all of his players?

He's made three deals and got good value for all three... so while he has the reputation as being a deliberate negotiator--I cannot say whether or not he over-values his guys.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I think McPhail is a terrific GM, with that being said there is zero and I mean zero chance we trade any of "super 5" prospects for Brian Roberts and whatever other trinkets AM would want to throw in. If 1 of those guys goes it will be for Sabathia.

[danzig6767]

The O's would save a ton of money, and the Brewers would not improve at all.

 

I'll pass.

I don't buy at all that we don't get better for this season

Roberts is a better player than Weeks right now and Guthrie is better than Dave Bush, pretty hard to see how anyone could say otherwise.

Guthrie has a 3.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in the AL, plus he put up very similar numbers last year while Bush has back to back 5+ ERA numbers while not having to face a DH in the NL. Roberts has a .859 OPS and a .372 OBP, very similar to his .377 OBP last year. Weeks on the other hand is sporting a .689 OPS with terrible .325 OBP for a leadoff hitter and Roberts is a better defender on top of being a better hitter.

Hell, Guthrie has a better ERA/WHIP/BAA than Sabathia this year. I'm not saying he's better than Sabathia, but i doubt you'd find a GM in the game who wouldn't find Guthrie and upgrade to Dave Bush and wouldn't prefer Roberts to Weeks in the short term if winning this year was the main priority.

 

[crossface21]

I just tossed this trade out there was because I thought it was a way to upgrade the Brewers at 2B and a give us another starter that would easily strengthen the Brewers rotation, without giving up too much from our farm system. I think there are plenty of ways the Brewers can upgrade the pitching staff without having to go after a guy like Sabathia and giving up too much of the future in the process.

[Brian the Automator]

I guess I have a hard time believing McPhail wouldn't do a Weeks for Roberts trade straight-up, given Roberts's contract situation (FA after next year).

 

BTW, OriolesHangout is a terrific site.

[Greg Pappas]

I guess I have a hard time believing McPhail wouldn't do a Weeks for Roberts trade straight-up, given Roberts's contract situation (FA after next year).

 

BTW, OriolesHangout is a terrific site.

Thanks for the kind words.

 

Were Weeks a player that were looking as if he'd be a good ML player, I'd tend to agree with your thought... but then again, you wouldn't likely be looking for an upgrade if he were playing well. =P

 

Escobar is who we desperately need, or Hardy... if we get either we would be very happy.

 

Sherrill, Bradford, Huff & Roberts are the four players most often discussed... perhaps a deal can be made between us. Your thoughts?

[crossface21]

Hardy's name seems to be the one that is starting to get tossed around. I think there's a better chance of getting him, than Escobar. Escobar's glove is apparently better than JJ's and he'll be a lot cheaper once Hardy hits arbitration.

 

Early in Hardy's career when he barely hit, I always supported Hardy and compared him to Yount and how he started his career. Since that time I backed off of that thinking and I thought Hardy would be gone by next season because he couldn't seem to turn the corner, save a hot streak now and then. But with the way he's been playing since he sat out a few games, I've gotten more optimistic about his future and that in the next couple of years, he just might be able to make the adjustments to become a .280 or .290 hitter.

[Greg Pappas]

Hardy's name seems to be the one that is starting to get tossed around. I think there's a better chance of getting him, than Escobar. Escobar's glove is apparently better than JJ's and he'll be a lot cheaper once Hardy hits arbitration.

 

Early in Hardy's career when he barely hit, I always supported Hardy and compared him to Yount and how he started his career. Since that time I backed off of that thinking and I thought Hardy would be gone by next season because he couldn't seem to turn the corner, save a hot streak now and then. But with the way he's been playing since he sat out a few games, I've gotten more optimistic about his future and that in the next couple of years, he just might be able to make the adjustments to become a .280 or .290 hitter.

Good post. I'm curious... among Brewer fans what would the general consensus be as regards Hardy's ability to stay at SS and what his #'s might look like over the next five years?

 

.275 BA/.340 OBP/.440 SLG/.780 OPS with 18 HR's, solid run production and solid defense at SS? That about right to most here?

[splitterpfj]

Yes, I think that's about right for JJ, those offensive numbers seem like realistic projections.

 

Defensively, he'll stay at short for a while, his range is a bit limited, but he's got a feel for the position, and more than enough arm.

[crossface21]

As we discuss this, JJ is just tearing up Brandon Webb. As for switching positions, I don't think he'll be the one that gets moved. I'm not saying this is going to happen, but of the two scenarios, I think it's easier to see the Brewers getting rid of Weeks and bringing Escobar up to play 2B, rather than move JJ.

[JumpinMacFlash]

Crossface, your last post pretty much sums up how I feel. I realize that Weeks has an incredible amount of potential, and much more potential than J.J. does, but at the same time, he hasn't truly realized that potential save the last part of last season, and would probably have more value in a trade than Hardy would because of that potential. I would really hate to see either one of them go, but I tend to agree that seeing Weeks go would be more likely to happen, especially with the attempt to shore up the team defensively. I think the inclusion of Weeks would also improve the odds of not having to give up Gamel or LaPorta.

[kmcasper23]

I thought Rosenthal reported a few weeks ago that the Orioles offered Weeks for Roberts straight up and Melvin turned it down. At least that is what Ken Rosenthal reported. I wouldn't do it just for the fact that I bet the Indians would love to have Brandon Phillips back and that is what Weeks will be in 2 years.

[Greg Pappas]

I thought Rosenthal reported a few weeks ago that the Orioles offered Weeks for Roberts straight up and Melvin turned it down. At least that is what Ken Rosenthal reported. I wouldn't do it just for the fact that I bet the Indians would love to have Brandon Phillips back and that is what Weeks will be in 2 years.

Not that I recall... I believe Rosenthal was just saying he thought it could work.

[Weirdos19]

I'm not sure about Brandon Phillips. He's better than Hall, but they remind me so much of each other it's scary.

 

A healthy JJ is an All Star. You can tell his swing is much more aggressive now that he is healthy. They say it's been hurting all season and it's finally feeling better.

 

I move Weeks long before I move JJ. Weeks has the potential, but JJ realized his last year in the first half. We know what JJ can do.

[kmcasper23]

I don't know if I believe Rosenthal anyway now. He is reporting that the Brewers have offered LaPorta and Escobar for CC. There is no way they offer both those players for a rental.

[Trowekamp]

I think that Roberts for Weeks straight up makes sense for both teams.. from Milwaukee's side they get:

- Upgrade defensively
- A true lead-off hitter
- Clutch player
- 2 draft picks when Roberts signs with the Cubs in the off-season
- Open spot for Escobar in 2009
- Extra money to attempt to sign Sheets, Hart, Sabathia, etc..

For Baltimore the get:

- 3 years of arbitration
- a superb athlete. I keep thinking Weeks could follow a Sheffield career path.
- a possible middle of the order hitter at 2b.


I think it is more risky from a Baltimore perspective which is why it won't happen but they need to take some chances to compete in that division.