I'm now convinced that the Brewers should trade for Sabathia

[soundsradio]

Look at the Brewers rotation and how it would project in 2009. It is very very unlikely that Sheets will re-sign. If he doesn't stay healthy the Brewers won't want to sign him long term and if he does stay healthy he will be pricing himse;f out of the Milwaukee market. Michael Hunt is right, the Brewers really can't go more than 4 years 60 mil (Maybe 4 years 68 mil is my opinion, especially when you consider the 9 you are already paying him and the 10 mil that comes off the books for Gagne next year and the 3.2 that comes off the year after that for Turnbow. That cover 15 mil per year for the first two years and an extra 2 mil a year the first two years out of pocket is not unreasonable. The problem is that Sheets will probably want 17 mil minimum and my guess would be 5 years and MIL cannot afford 5 years. Name the last 5-6 year FA contract in BASEBALL, not just MIL, that didn't result in the team having to pay a largely inferior pitcher millions the last 2-3 years. he might be great years 1-3, but years 4 and 5 will almost certainly be a lot of money for little performance. I don't say that because I think that Ben Sheets will wind up that way, I say that because, historically, almost EVERY pitcher winds up that way. The only exception I can think of is Greg Maddux, who signed a 5 year 57.5 million dollar deal with the Braves in 1997.

 

The window of opportunity may be closing for Milwaukee due to the picthing. if they trade for Sabathia this might give them their best shot for a couple of years. It will take a lot, but I firmly believe you will only have to trade ONE of the top studs and add in other lesser prospects to get Sabathia. The Indians know that any team that hs the prospects to deal for Sabathia, doesn't have the resources to SIGN Sabathia. If the Brewers trade Mat Gamel (my choice, I know he's a stud, but where do you play him?) and a few B list prospects they would have Sabathia and Sheets and an improving Parra as their 1-3 starters. The upside to this would be that the Brewers system would be absolutely STACKED after the 2009 season. You would still have LaPorta and Jefferess, you will have had 6 of the top 60 picks from the 2008 drfat AND you will have 5 picks in the 1st round and 1st round supplemental. That's thirteen studs around the age of 20. they could conceivably have a better crop of prospects coming up than they did with Weeks, Fielder, Hart, Hardy and Braun. If you can do that without losing more than one of the A List prospects, I say go ahead and do it.

 

Trading for Sabathia requires two things. The motivation and the prospects. Buster Olney wrote that the teams with the best prospects would be

 

Rays

 

Brewers

 

Red Sox

 

The teams with the motivation would be

 

Brewers

 

Cubs

 

Dodgers

 

Red Sox don't have the motivation, they like their rotation, same as the Rays. Cubs don't have the prospects and Dodgers barely do.

 

I say go get Sabathia and take your shot. If you don't resign him, you won't be losing as much as you think.

[piccione88]

This is not the Brewers only shot at the playoffs, if we however trade for Sabathia it would greatly reduce our chance at a playoff birth for the next 3-4 years. In order to get Sabathia, for two months, we would have to give up one of Gamel or Laporta, and a couple of other nice prospects(i.e. Gillespie, Braddock, Pena, Salome, Lucroy, etc). I am not a fan of giving up top tier prospects for 2 months of any player no matter how good he is. Sabathia does not ensure a playoff birth, and giving up prospects of that caliber just is not worth it in my opinion.

I would be a much bigger fan of going after a guy like Harden, if the price is right. Harden has a ton of injury problems, but if we could give up a lower level gem, such as Jeffress, in replace of Gamel, or Laporta, I would rather see that. Harden would be around next year, if we so choose, for 7 million. If that is not possible than just pick up one of the second level rentals, such as Maddux, or Wolf. Guys like tha t would only require the Gwynn's of the world, so we are not mortgaging our future.

[JohnBriggs12]

piccione88,

 

It's been 26 years and you're worried about 3-4 years down the road? It's virtually impossible to project better than 50% of the Brewer roster in 2012. Even if we could, we have no idea of how they would stack up against the rosters of the other teams in the NL Central, much less the entire NL. The Cubs aren't going to stop being aggressive adding players because the Brewers have good young players. Right now we've had half a season to see how this current team stacks up and anyone who's ever followed baseball knows that replacing a Bush or a McClung with a Sabathia, makes this team much more formidable. Granted that doesn't assure anything, but it makes the odds a lot better and if they do get to the playoffs, having a 1-2 of Sheets and Sabathia increases the chances of winning in the postseason.

 

"Prospects of that caliber"?? Prospects of what caliber? Until they are not prospects anymore, we don't really know what caliber they are. Even if they all turn out to be fine players, there's not going to be room for all of them. And in another 3-4 years, there will be a dozen or so other draft choices in rounds 1-3.

[brewmann04]

I would like to see the crew look into adding a Hitter.

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm still of the feeling that trading away Gamel or LaPorta is not worth a rental of Sabathia. But that is just me.

[kramnoj]

I would like to see the crew look into adding a Hitter.

 

At which position, and who do you think would be available? I don't even know if the Brian Roberts thing is still available, as the Os currently have a winning record. Someone in the transactions forum mentioned Grudz from the Royals. He probably would be the best available upgrade.

[soundsradio]

Do you really think that the Brewers will have a playoff staff next year without Sheets? Harden is going to cost as much as Sabathia, for precisely the reasons you listed for obtaining him. His salary is only 7 mil and he is signed through next year. The staff will be good and I think Gallardo could be a very good #2 and Parra a very good pitcher as well, but does anyone on the staff or on the horizon equal a Ben Sheets? The Brewers need pitching to win and they will have to give up a prospect to get it. If you give up lower prospects to get the Randy Wolf's of the world you get exactly that, the Randy Wolf's of the world. How many titles do you really hope for with Wolf as your savior?

[logan82]

If we are expected to win around 84-86 games 2 more wins would drastically increase our chances of making the playoffs. I am not sure CC would add 2 wins over half a season, but I would like to find out.

[piccione88]

Johnbriggs, I think you have to look ahead at all times to run a successful major league franchise, esspecially when you are a mid-market team like the Brewers. I would not say that LaPorta, and Gamel are untouchable, but only if we were getting someone that could help us for the next couple of years, like Zach Greinke, who is not getting traded this year.

You also said that you dont know how good a player is until he reaches the majors. Well that is somewhat true, it is a safe bet that these two will be at the very least above average hitters. AA pitching is not that far away from major league hitting. If these guys were still in A ball, I would be much less reluctant to trade them. You have the potential to have two very special hitters under your control for far less than market value for 6 years. In my mind that is not worth 2 months of Sabathia.

[piccione88]

Do you really think that the Brewers will have a playoff staff next year without Sheets? Harden is going to cost as much as Sabathia, for precisely the reasons you listed for obtaining him.

 

 

First of all, Harden has a 7 million dollar option next year, so that is set in stone if were to aquire him. I would not give up Gamel or Laporta in a deal for Harden either because of his Injury problems, which are far worse than Sheets.

 

As for our staff, obviously with the loss of Sheets next year, we will be weaker in the starting pitching department. With gamel and Laporta coming up, that improves us. We also have more money to spend during the off-season, with Gagne, Sheets, Cameron, and others coming off the books. That money can go towards other players. Fielder will probably be traded after next season, or the 2010 season, which will give us pitchers back.

 

I would love to see us get some quality players at the trade deadline. You cannot just give up great oung players for short term fixes. We have a core group of young players, that will be here for a while, we will have more chances at the post-season, even if we dont make it this year.

[soundsradio]

Johnbriggs, I think you have to look ahead at all times to run a successful major league franchise, esspecially when you are a mid-market team like the Brewers. I would not say that LaPorta, and Gamel are untouchable, but only if we were getting someone that could help us for the next couple of years, like Zach Greinke, who is not getting traded this year.

 

You also said that you dont know how good a player is until he reaches the majors. Well that is somewhat true, it is a safe bet that these two will be at the very least above average hitters. AA pitching is not that far away from major league hitting. If these guys were still in A ball, I would be much less reluctant to trade them. You have the potential to have two very special hitters under your control for far less than market value for 6 years. In my mind that is not worth 2 months of Sabathia.

Piccione88 I am in very of building from within as you are, but at some point you have to pull the trigger. Part of the reason you accumulate as many prospects as you can is so that you can trade them as needed. The Brewers have plenty of young hitters and Gamel and LaPorta are truly top prospects, but the Brewers have very few pitching prospects close to the bigs. If you only develop hitters you wind up as the Texas Rangers. You have to have pitching to win and unless they go get somebody that can make a difference, and Wolf is not that guy, they won't get there. And don't forget, when Sabathia leaves they get a first rounder and a supplemental pick or two supplemental picks at the minimum to help rebuild.

 

[soundsradio]

Do you really think that the Brewers will have a playoff staff next year without Sheets? Harden is going to cost as much as Sabathia, for precisely the reasons you listed for obtaining him.

 

 

First of all, Harden has a 7 million dollar option next year, so that is set in stone if were to aquire him. I would not give up Gamel or Laporta in a deal for Harden either because of his Injury problems, which are far worse than Sheets.

As for our staff, obviously with the loss of Sheets next year, we will be weaker in the starting pitching department. With gamel and Laporta coming up, that improves us. We also have more money to spend during the off-season, with Gagne, Sheets, Cameron, and others coming off the books. That money can go towards other players. Fielder will probably be traded after next season, or the 2010 season, which will give us pitchers back.

I would love to see us get some quality players at the trade deadline. You cannot just give up great oung players for short term fixes. We have a core group of young players, that will be here for a while, we will have more chances at the post-season, even if we dont make it this year.

 

First, you are not going to get a top pitching prospect for Fielder, even if you were to deal him now. First baseman have a lower value because you can convert many positions to 1B so the pool of available 1B is vastly larger while true pitching prospects are rare. To say that "We'll just trade a power hitting first baseman who is about to become a free agent for a top pitching prospect is not very realistic.

 

You also seem to think that the addition of LaPorta and Gamel will equal the loss of Sheets. Not likely. Pitching wins championships and that is the weakest area. The Brewers drafted heavy on pitching this year but those guys are at least 3-4 years away. If the Brewers want to make the playoffs they will have to sacrifice a prospect and I would rather give up a guy who may or may not be able to field his position (Gamel). If they don't trade for a #1 guy, where do you propose they get the pitching to win? You mention Harden, but he will cost more than Sabathia BECAUSE he is locked up for next season while Sabathia is not.

 

The Brewers need pitching and they have the chips to go get it.

 

[piccione88]

I guarentee that you would get a top pitching prospect for Fielder. Fielder is a guy that can potentially give a team an OPS of over 1.000. Look at the return that Teixera got, Neftali Feliz, who has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in recent memory, Jarrod Saltalamachia probably the best catching prospect at the time, Shortstop Elvis Andrus, who compares well to Alcides Escobar, he is a great defensive player, who does not hit a ton. Along with one of the best pitching prospects in the game, an MLB ready Catching prospect, who could be special, and a pretty good shortstop prospect, the Rangers also got the braves top left handed pitcher in Harrison, and a raw lefty named Beau Jones, who has a ton of potential.

 

Fielder would get a top pitching prospect, and then some. I am not sure if Fielder would get quite as much as Teixera did, considering Teixera is a very great first baseman. Fielder however would for sure get a top tier pitching prospect, and a couple other nice players, that is certain.

[dvoiss]

I am all for getting CC but not at the price of Gamel or LaPorta. I might be willing to deal one of them if CC would sign long term before the trade goes down but thst is highly unlikely. You just don't trade prospects of that caliber for a 2 month rental. Yeah you would get draft picks in return but their futures would be more risky than Gamel are LaPorta's futures are.

[soundsradio]

The Braves have a tendency to pump their prospects more than anybody and then deal them away when they don't pan out. Granted, Salty is a good prospect and I think will be a good catcher, but he couldn't beat out Gerald Laird for starting job. harrison had a shoulder strain last year and his velocity is down to the mid-upper 80's. Andrus may be okay and Perez projects as a reliever, not a starter. Don't forget the Rangers also had to package a good lefty reliever in Mahay as well. Kind of sounds like the Capellan deal doesn't it? They pumped up Capellan as the next great thing and look what we got!

 

Not only that, but the Braves did what I am advocating the Brewers do. They had a surplus of pitching prospects and they dealt the extra for what they needed. What other teams have pitching prospects to deal? Are they so bereft of 1B options taht they would deal the most valuable chips they have, pitching, for Fielder?

[soundsradio]

I am all for getting CC but not at the price of Gamel or LaPorta. I might be willing to deal one of them if CC would sign long term before the trade goes down but thst is highly unlikely. You just don't trade prospects of that caliber for a 2 month rental. Yeah you would get draft picks in return but their futures would be more risky than Gamel are LaPorta's futures are.

Gamel and LaPorta could turn out to both be ALL-STARS from the get-go, but no matter how good they are, if you don't have pitching, you will not win. Period.

 

[twobrewers]

The Brewers rotation does not look too pretty for 2009. However, Parra looks to have legitimate #2 potential.

 

In 2010 and 2011 though, we are looking at Gallardo, Parra and Jeffress. Along with the second wave of prospects in Escobar, Gamel, LaPorta and Salome.

 

I am willing to take our chances this year to protect the rest of our future. I just don't know that C.C. and his potential 2 game increase is worth the price. (I don't want to just barely make the playoffs - I want to win the playoffs)

[Josh23fan]

Last year, the Brewers finished two games behind the Cubs/ a playoff spot. Two games can make a difference.

[twobrewers]

Two games can make a difference.

Absolutely.

 

I just think Gamel/LaPorta/Jeffress or whoever else would need to be traded is worth more than two games that only might matter.

[mpepy05]

Last year, the Brewers finished two games behind the Cubs/ a playoff spot. Two games can make a difference.

 

____________

 

You got it right. And with a front end of sheets and sabathia, with this offense. Once they get to the playoffs, all bets are off. There are no guarantees with gamel and laporta. You see guys light up minor league pitching and get to the majors and flop all the time.

 

You do it. The sooner the better. Gamel or laporta and something else. Get him now. Raise the bar for this pathetic organization. Worry about the future later. The cubs and cards are ripe for the picking.

[mpepy05]

I just think Gamel/LaPorta/Jeffress or whoever else would need to be traded is worth more than two games that only might matter

_________

 

Yeah, and they might all get hurt and not ever reach the majors, as long as we're dealing with "mights." There might be better hitters that haven't reached their potential yet as well.

[soundsradio]

I ilke Parra and Gallardo too, but Gallardo will be coming off a year long injury and Parra still has trouble with command. I still think Parra is a #3, but that is quibbling. You are talking about a very young, inexperienced rotation to try and win the division with. EVen the young Tigers had Kenny RogerI like our core players too, but I think you have to take your chances now and deal the guy who may not have position (Gamel). I would keep LaPorta and Jeffress and deal Gamel. For those of you who have disagreed with me on this subjecdt I doubt I can change your minds so we'll have to agree to disagree....even if I am right http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[twobrewers]

Sabathia would certainly signal the the Brewers are serious.

 

However, we still have other flaws offensively. We strike out a ton. We don't have any high OBP players to bat #1 or #2. Our team defense is very suspect. I just see many flaws that appear to be fatal.

 

The idea of losing Gamel - and still missing the playoffs - keeps me up at night.

[Invader3K]

Trading for Sabathia doesn't guarantee trading LaPorta and/or Gamel.

[Darnell Junior]

I'm not sure it'd take Gamel OR LaPorta to get Carsten Charles for two months. Everyone know's he's leaving after the season's over, and I don't think anyone else will offer TOO much for him. Look what Carlos Lee got when everyone knew he was walking after the season. I'm pretty hesitant to deal one of those two guys, but for a hefty group of Lucroy's, Grindl's and Salome's I'd be more than willing.