Power 50 Discussion -- The July 1st Edition

[pogokat]

of course, seeing him play can have an affect on things...

[colbyjack]

Colby, look back at the archived P50's, and you'll see nicer things said about Krynzel than Brantley...he's simply oodles better, but I guess he's overlooked because he's not a #1 pick.

 

First of all, I'll repeat that I'm a big fan of Brantley. I'm not sure why you bring up the fact that he wasn't a #1 pick, as it's not like he's being overlooked.

 

Secondly, who are you going to move Brantley above? Odorizzi as the new guy is really the only guy I could understand a legit case being made against, but after that you have sluggers LaPorta and Gamel (no way), a four-tool SS in Escobar (again, no way), two catchers (premium position, obviously, with Lucroy flashing a hot bat and decent if not good D', and Salome posting big numbers at the plate throughout his pro career), Jeffress (big-time arm, big-time strikeout numbers and an impressive GO:FO ratio), Braddock (big lefty with good stuff and pitchability) and Green (big numbers throughout his pro career, having a big year and relatively unnoticed year in the FSL and a ton more power than Brantley).

 

And this isn't an argument about Brantley vs. Krynzel, this is an argument about where Brantley fits in the Brewers long-term projections vs. the other players currently in the system. Apples and oranges. Old, faded oranges.

 

Again, I hate to make it sound as though I'm arguing against Brantley, because I'm not. I'm just pointing out how strong the Brewers system really is, and in all fairness to everyone else in the system, if Brantley truly was the team's top 3-5 prospect, the system probably wouldn't be in that good of shape overall.

[dadofandrew]

I'd have him above of all except Gamel, Laporta, Escobar, and maybe Salome. Jeffress has a very high ceiling, but is a young P, a high flame out risk even without his "issues". LuCroy is solid, but still projects as a backup or just another C.

 

Brantley is younger than Green, has nearly the same OPS, a better OXS, and plays a tougher position on the spectrum...at a higher level.

[And That]

Brantley... plays a tougher position on the spectrum

It's a gigantic assumption to make that Brantley will be able to play CF adequately at the major league level. He has a weak arm and doesn't get great jumps. A lot of people will tell you that he profiles as a LF/1B, and that's where his game might fall apart if he's not able to hit for enough power. Most teams need different production than Brantley can give them at LF/1B

 

Meanwhile, Taylor Green already hits for enough power, draws walks and can play 3B adequately and 2B well... which are both tougher positions on the spectrum.

 

I like Brantley a lot, but it'll take a few things to break right in order for him to become a big league regular.

 

Edit: Now that I look at it, Green's natural position of 2B is to the left of CF on the spectrum anyway, even if you think Brantley will be able to stick there. And 3B is directly to the right of CF, so there's not a big difference.

 

They are very similar players. Green just plays defense better (especially at second base) and has power.

[gregmag]

I come down with Al on Brantley vs. Green at this moment . . . to reach a clear preference for Green, you have to (a) assume that Green can stick at 2b, (b) assume that Brantley can't stick in CF, © ignore Brantley's clear superiority at getting on base, the single most important skill for an everyday player, and (d) ignore Brantley's age-for-level advantage. I agree with Toby that they're comparable prospects, but I have to give Brantley the edge.

 

Beyond that, it's a game of apples and oranges. I think Patrick's last post makes some of the comparisons sound a little too slam-dunk. Al has a leg to stand on in putting a polished everyday player ahead of a young pitcher, even one as promising as Jeffress, and I have to say that Escobar's lack of plate discipline continues to worry me a lot. I don't think you can rate Brantley ahead of Gamel or LaPorta, but his youth makes that less crazy than Patrick implies . . . I can easily imagine a world in which Brantley turns into Tony Gwynn (the real one) and LaPorta turns into Pete Incaviglia. I agree that the catchers rate ahead of Brantley, and I think Al's dismissal of Lucroy misses the mark. There's no way I'd rate Odorizzi ahead of Brantley yet, and I don't think Braddock's overall combo of health, track record, and proximity to the bigs warrants putting him there either. So, chalking my Jeffress and Escobar concerns up to overreaction, I get a top ten of:

 

Gamel

LaPorta

Salome

Jeffress

Escobar

Lucroy

Brantley

Green

Braddock

Odorizzi.

 

Of course, I'm the guy who had Brent Brewer third over the winter, so what do I know? Anyway, that's a heck of a top ten.

 

Greg.

[And That]

you have to (a) assume that Green can stick at 2b

Green was drafted as a 2B, and he's good at the position.

Edit: I should also add that most of the difference in their career OBPs (Green .379, Brantley .401) is due to batting average (Green .293, Brantley .311). Green gets on base in ways other than hits virtually as well as Brantley, and it's hard to argue with a .293 career average, especially after his first year when he was hurt.

And I'd put the odds of Green sticking at 3B as greater than the odds of Brantley sticking in CF, FWIW.

 

[gregmag]

That's fair enough, and I have no basis for doubting it; I also know that he's playing 3b out of organizational need. But it's still an assumption one has to make, because he isn't playing there; guys lose a step sometimes, or lose their knack for a tougher position. My point is that, while I agree that Al presumed too much in asserting that Brantley has clearly superior defensive value, he's also not obviously wrong, and I thought your last post erred too much in the opposite direction.

 

Edit: I don't believe anyone is "argu[ing] with a .293 career average," in the sense of denigrating Green. If I've said anything that makes it sound like I don't like Green as a prospect . . . well, I can't find it, but I withdraw it if it's there. What I would argue is that a .311 career average is meaningfully better than a .293 average, enough to make a difference in a comparison this close. I agree with every positive thing you're saying about Green; I just look at the two players' performances and like Brantley a bit better.

 

Greg.

[EbbaStClaire]

One fact that seems to be overlooked is that Green has no protection behind him in the Manatee line-up and he is still putting up very nice numbers.

[pogokat]

To me, Green has the clear advantage:

 

His .822 OPS in the FSL with 9 homers and 39 walks versus 39 k's is incredibly good. When you look at his season versus Mat Gamel's last year, it gives you afair idea why i think so. Now I don't think Taylor's going to hit .380 next year at Huntsville, but i think his .327 average last year in WV was a true representation of his hitting ability. He, unlike all the other guys who played well in WV over the last two years, is playing very well in BC---another indication that his stats in WV were indicative of talent overall, versus talent against the competition...Taylor still profiles as a guy who could hit .320 with 25 homers in the majors with a .400 OBP.

 

 

Brantley, who is about a year younger than Green is having a great year in in Huntsville, but he still isn't showing above average power...his ISoP is .88...very low for an everyday player, and while he has the tools to play CF the Brewers have willingly started players over him there a large number of times. I think this comes off like i'm calling Brantley a lesser prospect...I'm not. Personally, I like him a lot. I just think this entire argument is based on the idea that Brantley has a skill (OBP) that Green doesn't have (actually, green's walk rate is slightly better than Brantley's) and that Brantley's age makes and level of play maks up for the fact the green is a more accomplished fielder and has twice the power..

 

two final comments....Green's career average is only at .293 because he was injured during his rookie ball campaign in 2006...and i think people are giving Huntsville more stock over BC than they should be here...I can't think of a single prospect who hit better in BC than they have in Huntsville...I always viewed the fact that the Brewers skipped Brantley over BC as recognition that he could handle the higher pitching, but also that they were conceding that he would struggle in BC

[NastyTwig]

Just a guess, but I think Green and Cain are going to put up some big time numbers at Huntsville next year. Lorenzo is my pick to blow up like Gamel did this year. Heck, with Lucroy joining them, Huntsville is going to be stacked again next year.

[tbbrewers]

One thing that goes in Brantley's favor is that he is a true lead off hitter. We may need a true lead off hitter in the very near future. .

[pogokat]

what qualities does Brantley have that make him a better leadoff option than Green?...they have basically identical walk rates and high average..

 

brantley has more speed...but he's not going to be a base stealer in the majors...maybe 15 steals a year..

 

i like both guys, but when OBP is basically identical, take the guy with the higher slugging...

 

green could replace rickie weeks in the lineup at 2b in 2010...on the field and at the plate..

[tbbrewers]

I do not have a problem with Green at 2B in 2010 and leading off.

 

I was basing my assessment on the fact that Brantley has been in the lead off position at Huntsville this season and Green has hit third for BC. If the Brewers consider Green a lead off hitter at what point do they put him in that position so he can start learning it?

[Katuluu]

He already knows how to take pitches. I'm not sure what else you think he needs to learn.

[biedergb]

Now with LaPorta gone, and either Green or Brantley to be traded, it will be interesting to see who fills the vacated top 10 spots.

 

Also, who had Escobar as the #2 prospect by mid-July?

[jjfanec]

Now with LaPorta gone, and either Green or Brantley to be traded, it will be interesting to see who fills the vacated top 10 spots.

Lawrie will be up there whenever he signs. I would also think Cain will jump up the lists a little. Lucroy should jump even more in the rankings, I find it hard to put him behind Braddock.

 

[battlekow]

Lucroy is ahead of Salome at this point in my mind. I have him #4 overall, behind only Gamel, Escobar, and Jeffress.

[1e Corbeau]

I haven't put enough thought into where I'd slot the guys after Gamel and Escobar (Jeffress, Salome, Lucroy, Brantley, Green), but I would have to agree that Lucroy has slipped ahead of Salome for me, too.

I think I trust Salome's bat more, as what he's doing at AA in Huntsville peaks louder than what Lucroy has done to date by a good enough amount. And, while I believe that Salome believes he can be a good defensive catcher and that he's got the work ethic to give it a real chance of happening, Lucroy already catches well and likely has a far more refined approach to calling a game.

I've enjoyed supporting and cheering for Salome since Helena; but, I think I'd seriously consider finding a team that believes he can stick behind the dish and would consider him as a centerpiece for a young ML pitcher or a AA pitching prospect with an uber-high ceiling. Obviously, it would take more than Salome alone, but, if you think he's a catcher, he's got serious value.

[sbrylski]

Post trade, including Lawrie:

 

1. Gamel

2. Escobar

3. Jeffress

 

Not a lot of debate there.

 

4. Lucroy

5. Green

6. Salome

7. Brantley

8. Braddock

9. Lawrie

10. Odorizzi

 

I think those are easy the top 10, with kind of a natural cutoff there. Cain, Errecart, Frederickson, Gindl, ect. start the next group.

 

I think defensive concerns are getting a little louder on Salome, so I'd bump Lucroy and maybe Green over him. I'm nervous about Brantley's defense as well.