DiFelice Sent Down to AAA, Gagné Up

[TooLiveBrew]

I disagree -- He has been bad all year, from game 1, or as you point out 40% of the time

 

FtJ, I'm referring to it bridging back to his time in Boston. I don't know if it did, but that's what I've wondered, and that's specifically what I was talking about there.

 

 

If he has been hurt all year, Melvin is an idiot for signing him, and continuing to play him.

 

Unless of course Gagne didn't know he was hurt or was hiding the injury... where have we seen that before... Cappy.

 

 

DeFelice is pitching well, bumping him to roll the dice on Gagne makes no sense -- other than DM saving face.

 

Agreed here. I would've preferred to see DiFelice stay with the big club for those rehab appearances Gagne should be making in Nashville.

 

 

Has he been that way since he gave up roids?

 

Who's to say that any of these ballplayers have stopped taking PEDs? MLB still can't test reliably for much more than anabolic steroids (iirc), so why would anyone stop? There's more than HGH & anabolics out there.

[pete]

I hope Gagne is effective and valuable, but i'd put the chances that he performs at Cy Young quality at awfully small.

[markedman5]

You can't honestly think you are ever going to see "Cy Young caliber" from Gagne again.

 

All you have to do is watch him pitch to see he doesn't have dominating stuff anymore.

[And That]

The best you are going to get with DeFelice is average.

I wonder why DiFelice's last name always gets the Branyon treatment? Anyway...

The NL average ERA is 4.23, so if you want to get technical about it, DiFelice's 3.95 ERA was above average in that department. He also struck out 16 guys and walked 0 guys in 13.2 IP. That is an above average K:BB ratio, I'd have to imagine.

I don't claim that DiFelice is anything special (especially against lefties) and maybe Gagne deserves another chance, but I think it's crappy that a guy who has worked so hard to get to the bigs, gets there, has success, and then gets dumped back to AAA because some ex-roid guy is making $10 mil and the team feels a need to legitimize that expenditure and maybe get some sort of production out of him.

 

[zzzmanwitz]

it won't justify the contract

 

Is there really anything that will justify his contract at this point. I say no, but I still think he can be valuable.

 

I hope Gagne is effective and valuable, but i'd put the chances that he performs at Cy Young quality at awfully small.

 

I never said I thought that Gagne would be Cy Young caliber again this year. I also never said I thought that DeFelice would stay average this year. That is just the best case scenarios for both players. It doesn't take much to be an average bullpen pitcher, and frankly, I'd be amazed if Gagne wasn't at least average.

[Diskono]

To be fair, Gagne also has shown extreme effectiveness in the recent past, something worth taking a chance on

 

When? --

 

In his 20 games with the Brewers, in only 4 did he retire all the batters he faced.

 

With Boston, in his 20 appearances, he retired the side in order 5 times.

 

With Texas he retired the side in order 11 times out of 34.

 

I'd say its been awhile (since Texas) since Gagne has demonstrated "extreme effectiveness".

 

 

To be fair, you have to consider that a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00 (which I would consider to be very good) still allows one hitter to reach per inning.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

Sign me up for average

 

Me too. But if we can get average for $10 million why pay $10,300,000? If Gagne is as good as DeFelice and we already have to pay Gagne it makes very little sense to pay them both. Not to mention if Gagne is as good then we can keep both of them. Then there is the ever present need other teams have for average relievers. I'd certainly hate to get rid of Gagne only to have the Cubs or Cards pick him up and have him shore up the middle relief situation for them.

 

and then gets dumped back to AAA because some ex-roid guy is making $10 mil and the team feels a need to legitimize that expenditure and maybe get some sort of production out of him.

 

If the only reason was to justify the money spent then I'd agree. As far as i can see there are three legitimate reasons to demote DeFelice to give Gagne every chance to succeed. I guess I'm willing to believe Melvin isn't just keeping him because of the money spent. But I'm usually the type of guy who is willing to give the benefit of a doubt.

[Fatter than Joey]

To be fair, you have to consider that a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00

 

Sure -- but we were talking "recent extreme effectiveness". -- Wherever you set the bar -- It's probably going to be 2x as bad in Boston/Milw than it was in Texas.

 

I can't find a significant block in the last year or so for Gagne where he has been consistently good.

[zzzmanwitz]

There are a few stats that stand out to me about Gagne.

 

His BABIPA is at .330 when his career is .290.

 

His GB% is right on line with his career, but his LD% is a little inflated and FB% is a little deflated.

 

His one obvious flaw this year is the HR. He has a 26.3% HR/RB ratio. His career is 8.3%. This seems like a number that is statistically unsustainable. I can't imagine him giving up HRs at the rate he did the first part of this season.

 

All in all, I think he will be an average pitcher. But there is a chance he could be good or ever very good. I just don't see that chance with DeFelice. And as Backupcatchers said, why not have them both available? it sure seems like the Cubs have a knack for picking up scrap (Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds) and turning them into something productive. I'm sure we'd love to see that happen to Gagne.

[Fatter than Joey]

His one obvious flaw this year is the HR.

 

Yep. You failed to mention his Turnbowian 16 BBs/19 IP. -- That explains his jump in BABip as well.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Past experience suggests that there is likely nothing I can do to stop the runaway freight train that is the "DiFelice can't get out lefties" meme, but for what it's worth, here (again) are his splits from Nashville this season:

 

vs. LH: 170 / 188 / 404, k/9 = 12.08

vs. RH: 308 / 300 / 436, k/9 = 9.90

 

That sample is only a little bit larger than the major league sample, but it certainly seems to suggest that DiFelice's lack of success against lefties in the majors so far is probably a fluke. I don't know of anywhere you can get splits from previous seasons of minor league data, so I think the best we can do is look at the drastic difference between his major league splits and minor league splits and assume that he probably has a normal platoon differential, like just about every RHP does.

 

The only consistent thing between the major and minor league split data is that he has only given up homers against lefties this season, so it might be fair to assume that he's more homer-prone against lefties than righties.

 

But lefties aren't hitting .429 and OPSing 1.474 off of DiFelice in the majors because "he can't get lefties out." He couldn't have been so effective as a starting pitcher in AAA the last year plus with such a glaring weakness. Nor is he as invincible against righties as his major league splits suggest. It's just dumb luck.

[endaround]

DiFeliece's BABIP against LHers in AAA was .185. That would be where the fluke seems to be.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

DiFeliece's BABIP against LHers in AAA was .185. That would be where the fluke seems to be.

 

No doubt, that is flukish. So is the .429 BABIP against RH hitters in AAA. As extreme a reverse platoon differential as he was sporting in Nashville, it shouldn't be surprising to find that weird BABIP luck is a major factor.

 

But I wasn't trying to argue that DiFelice is actually better against lefties, only that there's no reason to think that his even more extreme major league platoon splits (in an even smaller too-small sample) are indicative of anything.

 

So let's apply the same analysis there -- A .208 BABIP against RH hitters in MLB is flukish. A .364 BABIP against LH hitters is flukish too. Giving up 4 homers on something like a dozen fly balls hit by lefties (guessing here, it's not more than 19, which is how many ABs lefties have had against him) might be the most flukish thing of all.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Sorry to make consecutive posts, but I just noticed this comment from Yost on DiFelice in the mlb.com article on Gagne's activation:

 

"He needs to continue to work on his ability to get left-handers out," Yost said.

 

This means one of two things:

 

1) The Brewers have access to more information than we do on the net, including minor league split info from previous seasons, and this data reveals that a too-high platoon differential really is a problem for DiFelice. Ned Yost has looked at this data, or has consulted with someone statistically savvy that has in his stead.

 

- OR -

 

2) Like every other time Yost has quoted statistics on anything in his entire career, he's just looking at this year's MLB stats for his splits, and making the exact same mistake everybody in this thread made when they assumed that weirdly bad results in 19 PA tell you anything about anything. There is probably someone in the organization that knows better, but that person either lacks the influence or access to dissuade Yost from drawing foolish conclusions like this one, and making on-field decisions on the basis of such thinking.

 

Gee, I wonder which it is?

[dadofandrew]

His stuff would dictate he would struggle versus LH hitters, and he did.

 

AAA LH bats are obviously, not nearly as talented, and even those than can hit lack power. He can get away with it in N-ville, but not against Dave Ortiz.

[Bucky Rules]

Sorry to make consecutive posts, but I just noticed this comment from Yost on DiFelice in the mlb.com article on Gagne's activation:

 

"He needs to continue to work on his ability to get left-handers out," Yost said.

 

This means one of two things:

 

1) The Brewers have access to more information than we do on the net, including minor league split info from previous seasons, and this data reveals that a too-high platoon differential really is a problem for DiFelice. Ned Yost has looked at this data, or has consulted with someone statistically savvy that has in his stead.

 

- OR -

 

2) Like every other time Yost has quoted statistics on anything in his entire career, he's just looking at this year's MLB stats for his splits, and making the exact same mistake everybody in this thread made when they assumed that weirdly bad results in 19 PA tell you anything about anything. There is probably someone in the organization that knows better, but that person either lacks the influence or access to dissuade Yost from drawing foolish conclusions like this one, and making on-field decisions on the basis of such thinking.

 

Gee, I wonder which it is?

 

Hey FTJ -- can I get an acknowledgment of "straw-man" arguments and absolutism with this one? How 'bout at least some recognition of a flat out bias against Yost?

 

It's amazing how a thread to discuss the swap out of Gagne for DiFelice turns into another opportunity to take a shot at Ned when he has arguably little - certainly not the final say - in roster decisions. What Ned has to say on the subject is immaterial. If you want to look for relevant quotes, find out what Doug said.

[TooLiveBrew]

AAA LH bats are obviously, not nearly as talented, and even those than can hit lack power.

That's overstatement. I think the Triple-A pitchers that faced Branyan (& many other guys like him -- meaning, guys teams kept in Triple-A planning to call up... Trot Nixon pops into mind immediately) would tell you that LH batters in Triple-A most certainly can & do hit for power. Heck, the young guys too... Chase Headley (switch-hitter), etc. (I could find more, but don't have time to dig)

 

To say that "LH batters that can actually hit in AAA don't have any power"... well, it's inaccurate. Unless of course this is the made-up land of Triple-A, where Joe Dillon supposedly hit well. Then anything goes!

[Fatter than Joey]

Hey FTJ -- can I get an acknowledgment of "straw-man" arguments and absolutism with this one? How 'bout at least some recognition of a flat out bias against Yost?

 

He's fine. He is basically saying Yost is making the move because he either has access to information that we don't have, or he is basing it off of 19 PAs -- It's not a strawman agrument.

 

What Ned has to say on the subject is immaterial.

 

That is your opinion. Yost made a comment, if you want to dismiss it, go ahead, others should be able to discuss Yost's comments on the transaction.

 

I am sure Ned had input in the move.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Hey FTJ -- can I get an acknowledgment of "straw-man" arguments and absolutism with this one? How 'bout at least some recognition of a flat out bias against Yost?

As many times as FTJ has provided a link to a definition, it is quite evident you still do not have any idea what a straw-man argument is. I am not exaggerating anybody's position here. Several posters opined that DiFelice is terrible against lefties in this thread. I took issue with that position in an earlier post.

Here, Yost specifically says that DiFelice "needs to work on" his ability to get lefties out. Again, that's the position I'm taking issue with. Now, I go beyond the specific statement to guess at the method of performance analysis being used to arrive at that conclusion. Again, not a straw-man argument, because I am not changing anyone's position in order to disagree with the dumber position I made up. The guessing I'm doing here about what Yost is thinking, about why he would say that, isn't a straw-man either, because it is overt. I didn't say "Yost says that 19 crappy PA against righties is enough to assume DiFelice can't get them out." I showed what Yost said directly, and made some educated guesses about why he would say that based on the kinds of statistical evidence I've seen him use in the past. Again, all of this was overt in my post, so there is no straw-man to be found here.

As far as absolutism, I'm not sure what you mean. If insisting on understanding when statistics are meaningful and when they aren't is absolutism, then guilty as charged, I guess.

Anti-Yost bias? Maybe it's true that I have one, but that doesn't necessarily undermine the logical validity or accuracy of my argument. In fact, by charging me with "bias", you are committing another fallacy, an ad hominim attack on me as a poster rather than against the substance of my post.



What Ned has to say on the subject is immaterial. If you want to look for relevant quotes, find out what Doug said.

I never said that Yost made the decision to demote DiFelice, nor do I believe that he did. Yet here, you argue against that claim as though I had made it. What is called again when someone does that, sir?

I'll grant you this, and only this: maybe this thread wasn't the most appropriate place to get in a jab at Yost. But that line of discussion arose because, as I said earlier, the ubiquitous "DiFelice can't get lefties out" meme reared it's ugly head, and my desire to refute that position is totally appropriate in this thread. It so happened that Yost took that exact position, so I didn't feel like it was that much of a stretch to comment on Yost's thinking, given that issue was already being discussed here. I'm not going to start a "DiFelice probably doesn't actually suck against lefties, and Ned Yost is a dipwad for thinking he does" thread.

The post that you took issue with was my way of saying "See everybody, Yost made the same mistake many here did as a consequence of a poor understanding of the vagaries of statistical variance, and he's in charge of stuff like deciding when to pinch hit for a batter, or pull a pitcher because of a platoon advantage for a major league team!!!"

[endaround]

When I pointed out that Yost said Shouse is no longer a situational lefty and that's a crazy thing to say Yost defenders have now informed me that I'm not take anything Yost says as important.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Yost defenders have now informed me that I'm not take anything Yost says as important

Yes. This is true. Yost has been known to say one thing to the media and do another so I would take anything he says at full price.

[lukevan]

I wouldn't worry about this much. We'll need another reliever soon anyway, whether due to injury or Gagne's lack of effectiveness, so DiFelice should be back soon. I like (M)ike but his demotion won't hurt the Brewers unless Yost goes with Gagne in tight games and he blows up.

 

FTJ -- I guess "recent" would be in the eye of the beholder, but I was referring to his elite Dodger days and his "pretty good" Texas stint. While it may seem like a long time ago, I'm willing to at least take a shot with Gagne for a couple of weeks to attempt to deepen the bullpen. I'm not saying that Gagne will work out but it's worth a shot. Like I said, he can be waived and DeFelice would be back with really no harm done, again in the hopes that Gagne isn't thrown into the fire (close games) immediately.

[Thurston Fluff]

When I pointed out that Yost said Shouse is no longer a situational lefty and that's a crazy thing to say Yost defenders have now informed me that I'm not take anything Yost says as important.

 

actually you provided the quote then posted some stats that proved he was right to an extent and somehow tried to make it look as though he was an idiot for saying it. He has shown he can get through an inning facing a couple RH without getting scored upon. That, by definition, is more than a loogy. Even if he does struggle against RH he is more effective than DiFelice was who obviously is not a loogy. But, yes, taking what Ned says about a player on his team seriously is not going to tell us anything about what he really thinks of the player. I do think in some instances like this one there is more truth to his words than the usual player pimping he does. In this instance he is talking about what a player needs to do to improve. I think that type of comment is fundamentally different than the usual Ned quotes.

 

Brawndo I can think of at least one more possibility. He could have seen what kind of pitches are effective for him and realized that is not going to cut it against LH. Sometimes visual evidence of a player can tell a trained eye more than a small number of stats can. Especially when those decisions have to be made with very little time for evaluation.

[Fatter than Joey]

FTJ -- I guess "recent" would be in the eye of the beholder, but I was referring to his elite Dodger days and his "pretty good" Texas stint.

 

Fair enough. I think the Dodger Gagne is long gone, and I think the Texas Gagne was more of the fluke.

 

Like I said, he can be waived and DeFelice would be back with really no harm done, again in the hopes that Gagne isn't thrown into the fire (close games) immediately.

 

Yeah, I am hoping they can put him in some 10-0 type of games. I would have preferred to see him get more IP in Nashville, but I suppose they were afraid he would continue to get lit up.

[MickeyDavis]

It will be interesting to see who is the long reliever tonight if Soup gets shelled. It will probably have to be Mota for a couple and Riske for a couple. With CV going yesterday we basically have no other long relievers now.