Minnesota Twins: Luckiest team in baseball.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

After seeing the Twins for 6 games and looking at the stats, I have come to conclude that just about everything is going their way right now. They have mediocre pitching (18th in the Majors in ERA). They have little power (3rd last in home runs in baseball) while 7th overall in runs scored in MLB. And most of their runs come with 2 out RISP base hits. If I had to guess, the Twins will fall into a hitting slump and end up at about 3rd place in the AL Central behind by a large margin. Why did all of this luck have to be in June against the Milwaukee Brewers!!!

[yfinn6]

So the 2 out RISP hits are luck, and not just good execution? Sorry, but I'm not about to conclude anything about the Twins. They're hot, they're winning a bunch of games. They'll cool off eventually, teams almost always do.

[endaround]

They are incredibly lucky. They are 8 games better than their adjusted standings

[sgtcluels]

And we are 4 games better.

 

Slowly dominates us, the rest of the time we were n it and just beat ourselves. We should have taken 2 out of 3 this series.

[RU Rah Rah]

Why did all of this luck have to be in June against the Milwaukee Brewers!!!

That's probably not fair to Slowey. He pitched his rear end off today.

 

[brewmann04]

Twins wanted the game more Today and their Pitcher was lights out today

[homer]

Yeah, their BA with RISP is ridiculous. If I had to bet, I'd say that comes down a bit as the season goes on.

[AdvantageSchneider]

They have a good bullpen don't they? As much as I like the adjusted standing stuff, it doesn't seem to take into account bullpens very well into the formula.

[And That]

Unless the Twins keep overperforming or a few guys break out, they'll be lucky to win 80 games. This team always drives me nuts because they have a crappy offense that manages to score just enough runs to win most of the time.

[dvoiss]

This team always drives me nuts because they have a crappy offense that manages to score just enough runs to win most of the time.

And they have had 6 winning seasons in 7 years. And in 2007 (their only losing season) they won 79 games. I'm not sure you can call that luck.

[twobrewers]

This team always drives me nuts because they have a crappy offense that manages to score just enough runs to win most of the time.

Having a quality closer really helps.

 

Of course, they are always just good enough to put together winning seasons - but never good enough to really compete for the World Series.

[Glennron]

Twins wanted the game more Today

What does that even mean?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Unless the Twins keep overperforming or a few guys break out, they'll be lucky to win 80 games. This team always drives me nuts because they have a crappy offense that manages to score just enough runs to win most of the time.

Yeah and the frustrating part of that is they usually play their best baseball against us no matter what.

They are incredibly lucky. They are 8 games better than their adjusted standings

Do you know the Brewers adjusted record?

And they have had 6 winning seasons in 7 years. And in 2007 (their only losing season) they won 79 games. I'm not sure you can call that luck

As a matter of fact I do. The AL Central was a weak division when they were winning it, and that is pretty much proven by them losing in the first round of the playoffs every year to better competition. That said, the AL Central is very good this year and was last year, and the Twins won't and haven't been in the playoffs either year. See a pattern?

The Twins have done a nice job building a team and have some good players, but they've gotten a lot of breaks in the process.

[danzig6767]

And they have had 6 winning seasons in 7 years. And in 2007 (their only losing season) they won 79 games. I'm not sure you can call that luck

As a matter of fact I do. The AL Central was a weak division when they were winning it, and that is pretty much proven by them losing in the first round of the playoffs every year to better competition. That said, the AL Central is very good this year and was last year, and the Twins won't and haven't been in the playoffs either year. See a pattern?

 

The Twins have done a nice job building a team and have some good players, but they've gotten a lot of breaks in the process.

Come on. The Twins have managed to put together very competitive teams the last 7-8 years along with some playoff berths and they did so with a lower tier payroll, outperforming quite a few teams with larger and in some cases, much larger payrolls. Some may not like the style of ball they've played generally over those years, but considering the payroll limitations, the results have been impressive on a win per dollar spent ratio. It sure would have been nice to see the Brewers win near as many games as the Twins have over those years.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It sure would have been nice to see the Brewers win near as many games as the Twins have over those years.

It would have been nice for the Brewers to be in the horrible AL Central division of those years.

[logan82]

danzig6767 wrote:

The Twins have managed to put together very competitive teams the last 7-8 years along with some playoff berths and they did so with a lower tier payroll, outperforming quite a few teams with larger and in some cases, much larger payrolls. Some may not like the style of ball they've played generally over those years, but considering the payroll limitations, the results have been impressive on a win per dollar spent ratio. It sure would have been nice to see the Brewers win near as many games as the Twins have over those years.

I agree, but I think that the Twins fans would trade a couple of those winning years for a shot at a World Series instead of early exits in the playoffs. That is the point we are at right now, hopefully. Do we trade prospects and winning seasons in the future for a shot at the title now? I say yes.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Do we trade prospects and winning seasons in the future for a shot at the title now? I say yes.

The Twins have said "No" to that question in the last 10 years and have been set on their ways of spending the least amount of money as possible. All you have to do is look at their DH's in those years. They refuse to pay the DH a big time salary. It is their model though, and it sure has gotten them to the playoffs. All I'm saying is they've had a lot of luck on their side throughout the years, and they got plenty of that going for them again in 2008.

 

Does anyone think that the Twins won't have as high of a batting average in their new stadium because they won't get so many "dome" hits where the ball takes high bounces and comes at a faster speed to the infielders? I sure do.

[Fatter than Joey]

The AL Central was a weak division when they were winning it, and that is pretty much proven by them losing in the first round of the playoffs every year to better competition.

 

I don't see where the AL Central is weak. The Twins have been putting up 90+ win seasons for most of the 2000's. Losing in the first round proves nothing about the AL Central.

[Tbadder]

I admire the Twins organization and count it as one clearly superior to the Brewers. That is frustrating, but true. They do more with less on a consistent basis because they stick to their plan and never overreact. They hire excellent coaching and instructors. I just had a friend of mine who is familiar with the Twins minor league teams that told me "every team, no matter the level, play the same way, smart, tough, with an emphasis on execution." I'd much rather be the Twins always hovering around the playoffs year in and year out in the hopes of catching a hot streak at the right time, than the Marlins, who tank entire seasons in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. I don't think the Twins have the "go for it" syndrome because it's unsound. So what if they haven't had the best luck in the playoffs. That's only 4 to 7 games. I'd rather have 162 games of competitive ball. The Brewers must continue to develop and trust in their minor league system while making the occasional trade and once in a blue moon tactical free agent signing or the pain will never stop around here. Trading away prospects now is exactly the wrong idea. Our second wave of minor leaguers is almost ready to hit the shore, and this years draft maybe the signaling of a much better approach by the team--select a big bat first, and then load up on pitching. If we stick to a sound plan we'll reap the rewards.

 

And what is the statistical basis for luck? How is it defined? Does it exist or is it a psychological phenomenon?

[RU Rah Rah]

And what is the statistical basis for luck? How is it defined? Does it exist or is it a psychological phenomenon?

Right on. It's almost like we're talking about consistent, long-term luck here -- which seems oxymoronic.

 

[RoseBowlMtg]

123 then 123 then 123 that was the Twins first three innings vs Sheets. Then Sheets struck out the first two in the 4th and pitched a lot of pitches to Mauer, Morneau and Kubel giving up the first run. The Twins stopped swinging at Sheets breaker in the dirt and got 8 of their 9 hits off of his off-speed pitches. We pop up off-speed pitches while the Twins go the other way. As long as the Brewers are going to be going for HR's all the time the Twins will be the "luckier" team. I choose to applaud their in game adjustment.

[crewcrazy]

I don't see where the AL Central is weak. The Twins have been putting up 90+ win seasons for most of the 2000's. Losing in the first round proves nothing about the AL Central.

I agree with this -- it's hard to fault the Twins (or the A's for that matter) with always losing early in the playoffs when they're sure to draw the Red Sox or Yankees whenever they make the playoffs. It's not like the Twins haven't won any playoff series since they won the World Series in the early 90's, either -- they were in the ALCS in 2002, and the only time they were swept in those division series was two years ago against Oakland (and 2 of those 3 losses could've gone either way).

 

[dadofandrew]

The Twins and Crew are both 3-4 games over where they "should be", so much of the whining in this thread seems like sour grapes. Considering the Crew's outstanding one run game record and the fact Joe Mauer hit a 95 mph fastball at eye level out of the park to win the only contested game, I'd say you tip your cap to them.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'd say you tip your cap to them.

 

Agreed 100% -- The luck thing holds less water the longer the timespan.

[logan82]

If I had to guess the Twins have a slightly different drafting strategy than the Brewers. Jack Z. has stated their draft strategy is to draft power and speed. Power hitters, power pitchers. Those are things you can't teach, or that's what Jack Z says. I would think that those types of players often rely on their natural gifts to beat up lesser talent on lower levels and wouldn't lend itself to learning good fundamentals. Obviously that isn't true for every player, but as of right now it seems that it has led to a bad defensive team in the majors, though they have slightly improved this year. I am hoping that we now have a good base to start from with our major league club where we no longer have to bring up guys to the MLB club before they are completely ready. I understand how we would want to bring up guys a little early in the past where they still had warts as our MLB team was weak.