Who will win the AL Central?

[Glennron]

The White Sox are in first with by far the best run differential of +71. They're 6th in runs and 3rd in HR, while 2nd in the ML in ERA. They're also top 10 in K's, BB's allowed and BAA. They'd seem like the "favorite" from here on out because of how well they've performed on both sides, yet Baseball Prospectus had them at 78 wins so they're likely over-performing.

 

The Twins are only 1/2 game back after an 8 game winning streak. However, 5 have been against possibly the two worst teams in the NL in the Padres and Nationals. The other 3 were against the D'Backs at home, and they've been pretty bad for the past 2 months. They're somehow 8th in runs in the bigs, yet nowhere near the top in HR, OBP, or SLG. Is small ball working for them? Obviously Mauer and Morneau are quite good, but other than that their offense just seems so bland. Gomez can bunt and steal all he wants, but a .298 OBP is awful for a leadoff guy, or anyone for that matter. I know he's only 22 and will improve but I don't see how he's benefiting the team batting #1 right now. Their pitching has been pretty below average so far, but they do lead the majors in fewest walks allowed.

 

Detroit got off to a horrendous start, but have won 13 of 17, including a sweep of the Chi Sox. They'd seem like the favorite to take over Chicago if anyone does but their pitching is still suspect. However Verlander has been much better since his bad April.

 

Cleveland is apparently the second unluckiest team in all of baseball behind Atlanta. They have a positive run differential but are 8 games under .500 and in last place. Their pitching has been average, but their offense isn't near what many thought it would be. Hafner was awful before he got injured, and Victor Martinez doesn't have a HR after hitting 25 last year. They're still "only" 8 games out and I'd have to imagine they'll stay within a handful of games for a while. If they continue to struggle it'll be interesting to see what happens to C.C.

 

Kansas City's really the only team you can count out, although they have won 9 of 10 games. Their offense is just way too bad to have a shot.

 

I'm kind of surprised the White Sox still have a 71% chance at the division according to PECOTA. They've easily been the best team but I wouldn't be too surprised at all of the Tigers give them a serious run. I refuse to believe the Twins are good. What do they have, two hitters who are above league average? I'd think Cleveland has just as good a chance at this point as Minnesota.

[owbc]

I still haven't backed down from my orginial prediction that Detroit will win it. Despite their powerful lineup, they are 5th in OPS and 5th in runs in the AL. I can only see that getting better from here. As for their pitching, they are 12th in runs allowed, and I also don't see that getting any worse especially now that Verlander is waking up--not to mention Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson. Also, they just got Sheffield back and Granderson/Pudge have been hitting better of late. You have to think Miguel Cabrera will wake up eventually.

On the negative side, Detroit has a really bad defense--and although it has improved, it will likely be a liability down the stretch. Also, you could argue that the other pitching-heavy teams in the division have an advantage if they can shut down the Tigers' offense, but it seems to me that pitching wins in the playoffs, but a big offense can get you there.

What it comes down to is that the Tigers are only 5 back and the slap-hitting Twins and the over-performing White Sox. The Twins were playing awful just a few weeks ago and are likely just hot right now. The White Sox remind me of last year's Brewers--everything is clicking right now and things can really only go wrong from here. Thus, I see Detroit being the lucky team that gets to lose 3/4 to the Red Sox in October.

[JohnBriggs12]

Detroit by 6 games. I thought when Bonderman went down they were in real trouble, but this Galarraga has saved their season and I expect them to go out and get another pitcher. Their lineup is still awesome and during the hot weather months they will pound people.

[bigredrobbo]

I know this isn't a popular opinion, but with that rotation KC is not that far from contending. One decent bopper trade for some of the farm system and I could see them doing a Rockies.

[joepepsi]

I think Detroit will win it. They are 20-12 since May 20th (by my count). Verlander is pitching well, Rodney is back to help in the pen, (though he hasn't been sharp yet), and that offense is just outstanding. I think they'll be in first place by the first week of August. The Twins are having a nice season.

[berniebrewer4life]

If Detroit can keep up the pace, i'll go with them. However i have liked what the Sox have done so far this season.

[zzzmanwitz]

I'm kind of cheering for the Twins. I like they way they run their club and it would be awesome to see them do it without Johan or Liriano.