What could next year's starting rotation look like?

[badgerpat]

With the real possibility of Sheets leaving as a free agent in the off season what will the starting rotation look like in 2009.

Gallardo - Young and coming off minor injury
Parra - Young, developing but still could be inconsistent
Bush - Inconsistent, would be great if he keeps pitching like his last two outings
McClung - Unproven, would be great if he keeps pitching the way he has, but history does not back that up.
5th spot is open.
Suppan - Can not take another year. Thought Brewers over paid and gave him too many years when they signed him.

Would have been nice to have Inman and Garrison around to compete for the 5th spot. What a great trade that was last year for Linebrink. Maybe Melvin could find a way to trade Gamel, LaPorta, and Escobar for a temporary pitcher. At least the Brewers would get picks that we could wait 4 to 5 years to develop.

Yes I am still bitter!!

[And That]

Right now with no major injuries, Gallardo, Parra and Suppan are guaranteed spots. We're not trading Suppan, mainly because he's going to be making $27 mil between '09 and '10. I have a feeling one other spot is going to go to a decent pitcher... whether Sheets signs an extension, or its someone we trade for, be it by July 31 this season or sometime in the offseason, or a free agent in the offseason (which does not exclude Ben Sheets either). That leaves one more spot open for McClung, Bush, Villanueva, DiFelice, Steve Hammond, Richie Gardner, or whomever.

 

But a lot can and will change between now and spring next year, so any guess is a completely wild guess.

[jjfanec]

With the real possibility of Sheets leaving as a free agent in the off season what will the starting rotation look like in 2009.

 

Gallardo - Young and coming off minor injury

Parra - Young, developing but still could be inconsistent

Bush - Inconsistent, would be great if he keeps pitching like his last two outings

McClung - Unproven, would be great if he keeps pitching the way he has, but history does not back that up.

5th spot is open.

Suppan - Can not take another year. Thought Brewers over paid and gave him too many years when they signed him.

 

Would have been nice to have Inman and Garrison around to compete for the 5th spot. What a great trade that was last year for Linebrink. Maybe Melvin could find a way to trade Gamel, LaPorta, and Escobar for a temporary pitcher. At least the Brewers would get picks that we could wait 4 to 5 years to develop.

Yes I am still bitter!!

What is wrong with Suppan? He actually is having a nice year. His ERA is still under 4 even with a couple terrible starts. He eats up innings and gives the team a chance to win almost every time he is on the mound. 2 more years and the price he is at is pricey but not that bad in my mind.

 

[PlayerHader]

I hope Soup continues to pitch as he has just so the Crew might be able to trade him at some point this offseason. That'd help resign Sheets, too.

[endaround]

Soup's ERA is really misleading. He's given up a buttload of unearned runs. His ERA is 3.92 while his RA/9 is 5.05.

[lcbj68c]

I like having Suppan in the community and in the clubhouse. I think he'll help this team in the post-season, shoud they get there. Veteran presence, etc. Big picture, I dont have a problem with Suppan. The money he is making is peanuts for #2 starters these days. He is only a #3 because Gallardo blossomed so quickly.

[endaround]

Too bad he's a 4 then

[bklynbrewcrew]

Suppan is a number 4 or 5 starter not a 2 or 3. Sheets is the only ace with Gallardo also having the ability to be a future ace. Parra seems too inconsistent to be considered anything more than a 3 which is solid and Bush and McClung are 5s recent success notwithstanding. Sheets is the most important player on this team and losing him would be a major blow to our chances of future success.

[RightFieldCoder]

But a lot can and will change between now and spring next year, so any guess is a completely wild guess.

Who would have guessed in June of 07 that our starting 5 will be what they are now.

[zzzmanwitz]

In June 07, I believe I had

 

Sheets

Suppan

Yovanni

Villy

Capuano

 

See... I was close http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[JohnBriggs12]

A torn ACL is not a minor injury. Granted it's not his arm, but Gallardo will have gone nearly a year without pitching and it's a tall order for him to come back and intitially be as sharp as he's been.

 

I don't know how you can eliminate Villanueva as a candidate based on 4-5 bad starts when he came into the season with a 3.01 ERA in 12 starts. He certainly deserves another look.

 

Without Sheets, they have money to spend for another pitcher either via trade or free agency. Look for them to make a FA run at somebody a rung or two below Sheets, like a Derek Lowe and they might be willing to take a salary dump via trade.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Derek Lowe is not a good enough replacement for Sheets especially when you factor in that he will likely cost more than Suppan. Paying for mediocrity like Suppan, Gagne and potentially Lowe will get you nowhere. Paying the money for Sheets and not mediocre replacements is clearly the way to go.

[Team Canada]

Would have been nice to have Inman and Garrison around to compete for the 5th spot. What a great trade that was last year for Linebrink. Maybe Melvin could find a way to trade Gamel, LaPorta, and Escobar for a temporary pitcher. At least the Brewers would get picks that we could wait 4 to 5 years to develop.

Yes I am still bitter!!

I highly doubt either Inman or Garrison would be competing for a starting position next year, unless they move up to AAA later this year and dominate.

[davego]

True, but only if Ben will take our money. If Boston or NYY really want him, it would be shortsighted to out bid them no matter the price. We all can agree that we would rather have Sheets then Lowe. However, IF Ben leaves it is viable to consider who would take his spot in the rotation an at what price. Lowe is a bit more then mediocre.

[TauPentaRei]

Maybe Melvin could find a way to trade Gamel, LaPorta, and Escobar for a temporary pitcher.

ummmm, am i missing something? i don't salivate over these guys nearly as much as some in this community, but uh, that would be some temporary pitcher.

 

If that's Shapiro's opening negotiation volley, I think I am at the wrong car lot.

 

Gallardo - Suppan - Parra - McClung / Villenueva / Bush... should be a fine base.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

Unfortunately, I don't think sheets will be back. He'll get Zambrano money at least and we won't pay it. However, if there is any chance we can get Cain from the Giants he could be a solid two. All his numbers are in line except for W's. Maybe a Hardy, Salome + a mid level would be enough. Trade fielder/jeffreis to NY for Chamberlain. They're probably going to sign sheets anyway. Trade soup to free up some money to sign a better pitcher. (i.e. sabathia).

In short, here is my far fetched rotation; Sabathia, Chamberlain, Gallardo, Cain, and Parra

[eanelson4]

Soup's ERA is really misleading. He's given up a buttload of unearned runs. His ERA is 3.92 while his RA/9 is 5.05.

 

I would love to hear your reasoning behind why this matters at all. Earned runs a pitcher can control, unearned runs (an error had a play in them) he cannot. How would that be a good judge of a pitcher's ability?

 

And donmoney - I don't agree with trading Salome. If he continues to develop and hit like he has been at the major league level, he could be a huge asset. This team will have some serious bats at almost every position, except for catcher. There are no clear solutions there, and I would like to have a catcher who can swing the stick for once.

[Tbadder]

Put in Gallardo take out Sheets--that's next year's rotation if McClung works out. If not put in Villy for another try. The Brewers might sign another Suppan type pitcher, but really the Brewers hands are tied.

 

The idea that Inman or Garrison would be ready and adequate, I'm very doubtful. Sure Garrison looks like the real deal 2 years down the line, but Inman...geez...a shorter Bush I suppose.

 

The fact is the Crew can't do better than Sheets, and since that's not an option I'd look for some regression next year (5 to 10 games under .500 I'm guessing). Man, that's a lot of bitter too soon speculation.

[endaround]

Soup's ERA is really misleading. He's given up a buttload of unearned runs. His ERA is 3.92 while his RA/9 is 5.05.

 

I would love to hear your reasoning behind why this matters at all. Earned runs a pitcher can control, unearned runs (an error had a play in them) he cannot. How would that be a good judge of a pitcher's ability?

Because the difference between an error and an infield/bloop single is nil. When Hardy misplayed a ball in Washington he wasn't the one who then started hanging his pitches for the Nats to hit ringing doubles until they scored 5 runs. Add into the fact that errors are entirely subjective and there you go.

 

[zzzmanwitz]

Capuano should be back next year, not sure how effective he will be, but there is another option.

[endaround]

Capuano may have thrown his last pitch ever last season.

[jwill535]

Capuano should be back next year, not sure how effective he will be, but there is another option.

I wouldn't expect Cappy back till mid year at best. Even with that said it takes about a year after returning to baseball to return to form after TJ surgery. How long it takes after a second one is even harder to predict.

 

[eanelson4]

Because the difference between an error and an infield/bloop single is nil. When Hardy misplayed a ball in Washington he wasn't the one who then started hanging his pitches for the Nats to hit ringing doubles until they scored 5 runs. Add into the fact that errors are entirely subjective and there you go.

 

Yes, but errors also prevent an inning from ending when it really should have. Therefore, there is a possibility that those guys never would have gotten up in that inning, making it possible that they never would have scored. I agree that errors are subjective. My argument was more to the point that I don't think RA/9 is as good of a metric for judging the ability of a pitcher as is ERA (especially a guy who pitches to contact and relies on the defense like Suppan).

 

 

BTW, how do you get quotes in that nice little box? Every other forum I have chatted on, I just need to hit reply to a post, but it doesn't work that way here. What is the secret?

[zzzmanwitz]

Free Agent Starting pitchers
Jeremy Affeldt (30)
Tony Armas Jr. (31)
Kris Benson (33)
A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season
Paul Byrd (38)
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Ryan Dempster (32)
Chad Durbin (31)
Josh Fogg (32)
Jon Garland (29)
Tom Glavine (43)
Mike Hampton (36)
Mark Hendrickson (35)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Jason Jennings (30)
Randy Johnson (45)
John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Jon Lieber (39)
Esteban Loaiza (37) - $7.5MM club option for '09 with a $0.375MM buyout
Braden Looper (34)
Derek Lowe (36)
Greg Maddux (43)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Jamie Moyer (46)
Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $1.5MM buyout
Mike Mussina (40)
Carl Pavano (33) - $13MM club option for '09 with a $1.95MM buyout
Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout
Odalis Perez (32)
Oliver Perez (27)
Andy Pettitte (37)
Mark Prior (27)
Kenny Rogers (44)
C.C. Sabathia (28)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30)
John Smoltz (42) - $12MM club option for '09
Brett Tomko (36)
Josh Towers (32)
Steve Trachsel (38)
Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option
Kip Wells (32)
Woody Williams (42)
Randy Wolf (32)

I've Bolded the only pitchers on that list that I would be willing to consider. That is a pretty poor FA class for SP. Looks like a trade would be a much better option.

[crossface21]

I don't think $$$ will be much of an issue with resigning Sheets. I think that Attanasio has proven that he's willing to spend money. But to sign Sheets, it'll have to be for 5 years and probably around $90-95 million. I think it comes down to whether Attanasio and Melvin think Sheets is worth the risk.