Sheets testing the market

[homer]

I haven't read the entire thread so this may have been predicted already but here's how I see things shaking out:

 

The Brewers offer Ben a deal that looks good but is really below his market value - i dunno, say 4 years $50 million.

Ben signs with Texas for 4 years $65 million

Melvin says "We made him what we thought was a fair offer. He chose to go elsewhere."

Ben is booed if he ever pitches at Miller Park again.

[hauser42]

SteveO. Missing good portions of games in sequence of seasons will get you a tag of being injured. Think Harden from the A's. Bottom line he has missed games each year, only good thing it was not a arm injury.

 

Bucky, you are right I was maybe of the Cappy is the Ace ship. I truly thought he had what it took to lead this team. He quickly has disapperared. Suppan needed to be signed or this team would have been counting a bunch of young un proven arms that have still shown they are not ready to eat up a lot of innings. Combine that with Sheets not making it through several seasons you needed the innings eater even at his cost. Suppan's contract should not effect Sheets signing, and if the Brewers wanted they could wait on locking up the young hitters till Suppan's deal runs out.

[Bucky Rules]

It's simple really. You try and get the best 5 pitchers you can and every year Sheets is #1 and we wait for him to get hurt. Without Sheets the Brewers will most likely pursue another pitcher. Will it be of Sheets' caliber? Probably not, but if they get a guy a few notches below Sheets that stays healthy for the year that in a way makes up for the big drop off going from Sheets to some of the guys we've had to use in the past.

On the free agent market that costs Jeff Suppan money. This is why I believe spending almost 2x Jeff Suppan money is worth it to keep Sheets. One Ben Sheets is better than 2 Jeff Suppan's. If Sheets goes down for 1/3 of the season or even 1/2 a season, we're most likely not any worse off combining that with our #6 for the remainder of the season than with a Suppan-like guy for a full season (quite possibly still better off). If Sheets stays healthy we're miles ahead, and a legitimate contender. The costs involved in your plan is that you have no better than a mediocre pitching staff unless you get lucky with some young guys that explode on the scene. You're giving up almost any chance for excellence.

 

The Brewers are full of talent and part of this "plan" could be packaging some of these guys for a pretty darn good pitcher. The Brewers have several options and to me it just doesn't make sense to give Sheets the kind of money being talked about around here. The Brewers are a small market team.

Depending on who you're talking about giving up, the cost here is your future. I'd rather trim $10MM (if necessary) somewhere else off the roster than give up a LaPorta or Gamel or other top prospects when we already have an ace in our hand without giving them up. Especially since I'm of the opinion that Prince will be walking in three years (if he isn't traded sooner than that). If you want someone that I'd be calling a (your phrase) "pretty darn good pitcher," you're talking about multiple prospects of that caliber. Is that worth $10MM/year. Those kinds of guys will be making the league minimum for a big chunk of Ben's contract. I'm not sure you even save any money in that scenario -- depending how much service time this "pretty darn good pitcher" has already clocked.

[sbrylski]

Just a surface look, but here's some food for thought:

 

WPA, 2008

.5 = 1 win

Sheets, 15 starts: 2.37

Gallardo, 3 starts: .65

McClung, 6 starts: .39

Suppan, 16 starts: .25

Parra, 15 starts: -.07

Villanueva, 9 starts: -1.04

Bush, 14 starts: -1.29

 

Sheets is the only pitcher who has been winning us games. Other than that, the best we have is a guy or two who can keep us in games, and Gallardo coming back from a knee. This isn't exactly a surprise, but it's interesting to see the differences numerically. So if you're questioning Sheets' value to the team, think again, he is hugely valuable.

[Bucky Rules]

I haven't read the entire thread so this may have been predicted already but here's how I see things shaking out:

 

The Brewers offer Ben a deal that looks good but is really below his market value - i dunno, say 4 years $50 million.

Ben signs with Texas for 4 years $65 million

Melvin says "We made him what we thought was a fair offer. He chose to go elsewhere."

Ben is booed if he ever pitches at Miller Park again.

 

If the Brewers only offer him 4 years / $50MM (assuming he completes a healthy season) there won't be many that believe that offer looks good. He's getting a lot more than that. I would think he's getting a lot more than your proposed Texas offer.

 

I'm not sure if this was intended to re-create the Carlos Lee situation or the Francisco Cordero situation. Either way, I don't think it works. The difference between Melvin's offer and the one Cordero accepted was 1MM/yr, not 3.75MM. The Cordero offer was a fair offer that would've made him the highest paid closer at the time. If you're referring to Carlos Lee -- that makes a little more sense because we only pretended to be close to signing him. But, let's be honest... if Houston could get out of that deal today, I bet they would. Personally, I'm thankful that Lee didn't accept the Brewers offer and that they didn't get involved after he turned them down.

 

But, hey... I could end up being completely wrong on this one. Sheets could turn out to be the next Ted Higuera (post big contract). And his signing could end up keeping us from signing other guys down the road. I just think the guy is a stud. And I think having studs in your rotation is a big part of winning in MLB.

[TooLiveBrew]

How is "dude" so clutch?

 

My point is that trying to call someone "clutch" or not is probably a waste of time. Sheets is an elite talent, and he's been "clutch" all season long.

 

 

And again the stretch run isn't in June as we learned last year.

 

So what do we do with the 'non-clutch' time of the season? Does he get credit for being stellar in nearly every single start he's made so far? I don't see any reason to expect that Benny won't continue to be this good (aka "clutch" to some) as long as he's out there. I guess what I'm saying is that I could care less when during the season Sheets got randomly hit by an injury (2007). He has no control over that.

 

 

If Gallardo continues to go down with injuries, we can put him in the same category as Sheets. I don't think Sheets continuous injuries compare to general injuries to pitchers. It's beyond frustrating.

 

So... Gallardo would go in the same category as other SP, right? Because the only place you'll find a special category for Sheets all by himself in terms of injuries is Milwaukee imo. The only way that Sheets's injuries 'don't compare' is that they haven't been damaging to his shoulder or elbow, like most SP injuries. I think clearly if you have to choose btw. those kinds of injuries & the fluky stuff Ben's had, you go with his injury history. My point there is: You're a GM. Pick between Chris Carpenter & Ben Sheets. Not very hard, is it?

 

The part you mention about "frustrating" is what I meant with the reference to fans complaining that, 'the Brewers must make the most outs on the basepaths!' Yes, Sheets's injuries have been frustrating, and on a rationalizing level, for some fans it would've been more acceptable for him to have shredded his shoulder or tendons, because then those fans can 'understand' the injury. Inner Ear Infection! Wussy! Blisters! OMGz he's the only pitcher to ever get sidelined by those! (not aimed directly at you, JJ07, just like your comment about the Cy Young wasn't at me) http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Pitchers miss time. That's the way it is. But if we're talking long-term contract extensions or considerations, I'll take a guy with Sheets's injury history over someone like Carpenter's every single time.

[JJHardy7]

On the free agent market that costs Jeff Suppan money. This is why I believe spending almost 2x Jeff Suppan money is worth it to keep Sheets. One Ben Sheets is better than 2 Jeff Suppan's. If Sheets goes down for 1/3 of the season or even 1/2 a season, we're most likely not any worse off combining that with our #6 for the remainder of the season than with a Suppan-like guy for a full season (quite possibly still better off). If Sheets stays healthy we're miles ahead, and a legitimate contender. The costs involved in your plan is that you have no better than a mediocre pitching staff unless you get lucky with some young guys that explode on the scene. You're giving up almost any chance for excellence.

 

The Brewers are a small market team. They cannot afford to pay a player that gets hurt like Sheets. I'd rather use the money on the young guys and hope a guy in the minors pans out if anything else. Sheets isn't a spring chicken anymore and is most likely in his prime right now so depending on the years he's an extreme risk -- small market teams shouldn't do that IMO.

 

Depending on who you're talking about giving up, the cost here is your future. I'd rather trim $10MM (if necessary) somewhere else off the roster than give up a LaPorta or Gamel or other top prospects when we already have an ace in our hand without giving them up. Especially since I'm of the opinion that Prince will be walking in three years (if he isn't traded sooner than that). If you want someone that I'd be calling a (your phrase) "pretty darn good pitcher," you're talking about multiple prospects of that caliber. Is that worth $10MM/year. Those kinds of guys will be making the league minimum for a big chunk of Ben's contract. I'm not sure you even save any money in that scenario -- depending how much service time this "pretty darn good pitcher" has already clocked.

 

Well you kind of make my point -- I'm all for Prince traded and he should bring in a pretty darn good pitcher hopefully. Depending on what happens in the minors and with the current group the Brewers may be too stacked at a few positions -- again depending on how things progress. Signing Sheets now is a risk unless he's willing to do a 3 year deal or take less money and I don't blame him for not doing that if that's what happens.

 

My point is that trying to call someone "clutch" or not is probably a waste of time. Sheets is an elite talent, and he's been "clutch" all season long.

 

Well maybe clutch isn't the right word. How about being there when your team needs you the most? Will Sheets be there? We don't know yet, but I do hope he is.

 

So what do we do with the 'non-clutch' time of the season? Does he get credit for being stellar in nearly every single start he's made so far? I don't see any reason to expect that Benny won't continue to be this good (aka "clutch" to some) as long as he's out there. I guess what I'm saying is that I could care less when during the season Sheets got randomly hit by an injury (2007). He has no control over that.

 

You can keep use your "clutch" word all you want, but my point is it's been a half season. I've never doubted Sheets as a good pitcher and I'm not going to. Sheets has an injury history and there's no denying that. A decision has to be made -- keep the young guys or sign Sheets. I know we can say well all this money is coming off the books, but those players need to be replaced and we need to extend guys. Why put a ton of money on a guy that in the past few years for whatever reason has proven he can't stay healthy?

 

So... Gallardo would go in the same category as other SP, right? Because the only place you'll find a special category for Sheets all by himself in terms of injuries is Milwaukee imo. The only way that Sheets's injuries 'don't compare' is that they haven't been damaging to his shoulder or elbow, like most SP injuries. I think clearly if you have to choose btw. those kinds of injuries & the fluky stuff Ben's had, you go with his injury history. My point there is: You're a GM. Pick between Chris Carpenter & Ben Sheets. Not very hard, is it?

 

The part you mention about "frustrating" is what I meant with the reference to fans complaining that, 'the Brewers must make the most outs on the basepaths!' Yes, Sheets's injuries have been frustrating, and on a rationalizing level, for some fans it would've been more acceptable for him to have shredded his shoulder or tendons, because then those fans can 'understand' the injury. Inner Ear Infection! Wussy! Blisters! OMGz he's the only pitcher to ever get sidelined by those! (not aimed directly at you, JJ07, just like your comment about the Cy Young wasn't at me)

 

Pitchers miss time. That's the way it is. But if we're talking long-term contract extensions or considerations, I'll take a guy with Sheets's injury history over someone like Carpenter's every single time.

 

I don't think you're seeing my point and using some of your comparisons make zero sense. Nobody here is calling him a wussy or any of that. Again, for whatever reason he's missed time. It hasn't been an arm injury, but to me that's a half glass full opinion. Missing time is missing time and I think it isn't shocking that in his free agent year Sheets appears IMO to have shown up in much better shape. If you're not in shape, you most likely will have injuries that someone in shape doesn't have. I don't care if Sheets goes on the DL for 4 weeks because of a stomach virus. He's still missing time and to me you simply cannot be a small market team paying a guy in his 30s that kind of money. Signing him will cost the Brewers some young players and again the Brewers have probably reached close to their "cap" internally in order to meet their bottom line. The Brewers don't have revenue that other big market teams have. I am not knocking Sheets I'm just pointing out my concerns on paying him money that the Red Sox would offer. I can just see this board next year after his huge deal with the Red Sox and Sheets goes on the DL -- thank goodness we didn't sign him! It's only June and if Sheets puts together a great year for an entire year and gets a huge deal that's good for him and I don't blame him for leaving for big money. I know he's the golden boy around here sometimes, but this is a business and it's very, very risky situation for the Brewers.

[TooLiveBrew]

You can keep use your "clutch" word all you want

 

You introduced this word. I think it's a 'fluff' term/concept.

 

 

Well maybe clutch isn't the right word. How about being there when your team needs you the most? Will Sheets be there? We don't know yet, but I do hope he is.

 

I hope so too. However, it's pretty darn clear that the Brewers have needed Benny very badly so far this season -- and he's been there. So my point is... when does Ben get credit for this?

 

 

I don't think you're seeing my point and using some of your comparisons make zero sense. Nobody here is calling him a wussy or any of that.

 

Well, you sure aren't calling him that, but many have. I don't see how my comparisons make "zero sense."

 

 

Again, for whatever reason he's missed time. It hasn't been an arm injury, but to me that's a half glass full opinion. Missing time is missing time

 

It's not glass half full, it's reality. Missing time is 'missing time', until it comes time to evaluate whether or not to sign a guy to a long-term deal... hence my comparison with Carpenter (who most here praised StL for locking up long-term when they did).

 

 

I think it isn't shocking that in his free agent year Sheets appears IMO to have shown up in much better shape. If you're not in shape, you most likely will have injuries that someone in shape doesn't have.

 

I can't say I find it shocking either. However, none of Sheet's injuries have appeared to have been due to being out of shape except one -- the pulled hamstring from last season. Literally every other injury he's had (to the best of my layman's knowledge) has had nothing to do with conditioning.

 

 

I don't care if Sheets goes on the DL for 4 weeks because of a stomach virus. He's still missing time and to me you simply cannot be a small market team paying a guy in his 30s that kind of money.

 

Now here's the portion of tonight's segment where we start agreeing. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif This is the part about mitgating risk. I don't know that the Brewers should make that big an investment in any FA player. Not paying El Caballo what he got was very wise. Not paying Sheets might be equally wise.

 

 

I am not knocking Sheets I'm just pointing out my concerns

 

This has been very clear, at least to me. I'm not trying to agitate you, we've just had a lot to talk about. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

It's only June and if Sheets puts together a great year for an entire year and gets a huge deal that's good for him and I don't blame him for leaving for big money. I know he's the golden boy around here sometimes, but this is a business and it's very, very risky situation for the Brewers.

 

We agree fully here.

[logan82]

Did Sheets show up in better shape this year or is that something being thrown out because he hasn't been injured?

[Invader3K]

Did Sheets show up in better shape this year or is that something being thrown out because he hasn't been injured?

He looks like he's in better shape to me, but that is just my opinion.

 

[JJHardy7]

You introduced this word. I think it's a 'fluff' term/concept.

 

I think you're taking it in a different direction that I was looking at. I'm looking at August and September when a team is in the race that they have they're #1 guy there. Sheets has been good on a team that's never gone anywhere. I think he'll be good in August and September the only question is he has to be healthy to get there and that is more or less my entire point.

 

I hope so too. However, it's pretty darn clear that the Brewers have needed Benny very badly so far this season -- and he's been there. So my point is... when does Ben get credit for this?

 

I've already posted he's a Cy Young guy (in the mix) for the first-half. Does he deserve more than that? I'm honestly not trying to slight the guy by any means.

 

It's not glass half full, it's reality. Missing time is 'missing time', until it comes time to evaluate whether or not to sign a guy to a long-term deal... hence my comparison with Carpenter (who most here praised StL for locking up long-term when they did).

 

I disagree. How can you not take into account Sheets DL time with the Brewers? If you don't, that's fine we just flat out agree to disagree. This is Milwaukee and a small market club.

 

I can't say I find it shocking either. However, none of Sheet's injuries have appeared to have been due to being out of shape except one -- the pulled hamstring from last season. Literally every other injury he's had (to the best of my layman's knowledge) has had nothing to do with conditioning.

 

There honestly is no way to know this answer. It's just my opinion.

 

Now here's the portion of tonight's segment where we start agreeing. This is the part about mitgating risk. I don't know that the Brewers should make that big an investment in any FA player. Not paying El Caballo what he got was very wise. Not paying Sheets might be equally wise.

 

I think this has more or less been my point. I'm not bashing Sheets on his performance by any means. He's a very, very good pitcher. I just am honestly wondering why all the SIGN SHEETS is coming out now. If he struggles for a few starts or gets hurt the exact opposite will happen -- not that I want that.

 

I get what you're saying TwoLiveBrew, but I just honestly think it's silly that it's so pro sign Sheets right now. There's a very, very big risk (depending on the contract) in bringing him back before the year and now. I guess my best hope is that Sheets flat out pitches nasty the rest of the year and we go far. We'll most likely lose him, but for all we know we never had a chance.

 

Did Sheets show up in better shape this year or is that something being thrown out because he hasn't been injured?

 

I have mentioned this a few times based on things I've heard from the Brewers in the past and I don't want to ruin this thread so I won't get into details. I'll just say he looks in better shape this year by looking at him and I think Sheets is/was very well aware this is his "money" year. This happens in a lot of sports and it's not a knock on Ben. It just brings up the question IF (and I'm saying IF) Sheets year is based on being in shape, will he stay in shape? I'm just throwing it out there.

[logan82]

Other players saying that Sheets wasn't in shape in the past doesn't mean he came into camp in shape this year. Speculation on what kind of shape he is in this year based on the fact it is his walk year really isn't going to convince me. As baggy as Sheets uniforn is I don't think we can tell what kind of shape he is in.

[Invader3K]

He looks a bit more muscular to me this year...I could be totally wrong, though.

 

It's safe to say, the guy isn't dumb...I'm sure he probably hit the gym pretty hard this past off-season.

[JJHardy7]

Other players saying that Sheets wasn't in shape in the past doesn't mean he came into camp in shape this year. Speculation on what kind of shape he is in this year based on the fact it is his walk year really isn't going to convince me. As baggy as Sheets uniforn is I don't think we can tell what kind of shape he is in.

 

Regardless of that just IMO he looks in better shape. It is difficult to tell, but to me his uniform looks a little less baggy. It's just my opinion.

[Oldcity]

It's fine that I've been labeled a "pro-Sheets guy," but I do like to think I'm still being objective about it. I'm not saying a long-term deal for him isn't a risk, but it is really the only chance the Brewers have of acquiring a pitcher of his caliber. Even if they trade Prince Fielder, they're very unlikely to get back a pitcher with Sheets' talent. He's a top 10-15 starter in MLB; those guys aren't going to get traded for anyone.

 

I'm pretty sure that's what people are trying to say when they call him irreplaceable.

[lukevan]

Many of us wanted Sheets re-signed in the offseason (we should bring that thread back up), I think I suggested something like 4 years at $15 mil per. That certainly would've been a risk but the reward could've been great. I don't blame management for not pursuing this route.

 

Many have argued that Sheets' injuries were not related to each other and not serious (people have been having this debate since 2005) and that we didn't need to worry about losing Sheets to a serious injury (ie season long injury). Even in his worst injury year he still gave us at least 50% of the IP we hoped for. Better than 0% like the Cards are getting for Carp or the Mets are getting from Pedro.

 

I agree with TLB, I'd much rather have Sheets injury history than Carpenter or Pedro Martinez etc. Almost all pitchers will get injured multiple times in their careers, Sheets is no different. You kind of have to expect your pitchers to have injuries at some point during whatever contract they sign.

[JJHardy7]

It's fine that I've been labeled a "pro-Sheets guy," but I do like to think I'm still being objective about it. I'm not saying a long-term deal for him isn't a risk, but it is really the only chance the Brewers have of acquiring a pitcher of his caliber. Even if they trade Prince Fielder, they're very unlikely to get back a pitcher with Sheets' talent. He's a top 10-15 starter in MLB; those guys aren't going to get traded for anyone.

 

I'm pretty sure that's what people are trying to say when they call him irreplaceable.

 

I respect your opinion and those that share it. I just think he is somewhat replaceable because of his injury history. Maybe Sheets never goes on the DL for a significant amount of time and when his career is over his injuries in Milwaukee were unlike most of his career. There is just too much we don't know about Sheets. I would hope the Brewers' brass has a good understanding of Sheets and if in fact he is in much better shape this year, etc.

 

The best chance for any team to acquire a player of Sheets' level is through the draft. I do agree it will be hard to find a player as good as Sheets when healthy, but many teams in baseball have this problem. I do think Sheets potential replacement is already in the Brewers organization, but it will be a few years until Jeremy Jeffress is in Milwaukee.

 

I do not think trading Sheets is the best option and I hope that doesn't happen (unless we get a crazy deal). It would be nice to see Sheets last game as a Brewer in the playoffs.

[Bucky Rules]

The Brewers are a small market team. They cannot afford to pay a player that gets hurt like Sheets. I'd rather use the money on the young guys and hope a guy in the minors pans out if anything else. Sheets isn't a spring chicken anymore and is most likely in his prime right now so depending on the years he's an extreme risk -- small market teams shouldn't do that IMO.

I believe our payroll is at $84MM (correct me if I'm wrong). Mark A has gone on record that there is room to grow if the situation arises. Our attendance will be around or over 3MM this season. We need to lose the small market mentality. This market may be small in terms of television ratings, but we support our baseball team. And Mark A has not had a small market mentality. He's treated it like medium market. I don't think we should sell ourselves short in that regard. No... we're not the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs. But it wouldn't shock me to see our payroll hit $100MM in the next couple of years.

 

Well you kind of make my point -- I'm all for Prince traded and he should bring in a pretty darn good pitcher hopefully. Depending on what happens in the minors and with the current group the Brewers may be too stacked at a few positions -- again depending on how things progress. Signing Sheets now is a risk unless he's willing to do a 3 year deal or take less money and I don't blame him for not doing that if that's what happens.

Then the cost of replacing Sheets is Prince Fielder. But, beyond that... if Prince fetches us a "pretty darn good pitcher," there would still be room for that guy in a rotation with Sheets. I see no problem with that. SP is one of the few positions that we don't have a logjam of depth waiting to take over. There's always room for one more. I mean, wouldn't it be awful to have a rotation starting with Sheets, Lincecum/Verlander/(or someone of that ilk), and Yo as your top three guys? Wouldn't that be a lot like Webb/Haren/RJ -- maybe better? How many chances do you think the Brewers would legitimately have at a rotation like that?

 

But you're right about signing Sheets being a risk. So is signing any pitcher (or player for that matter) to a lot of money for a number of years. I think letting a guy as good as Sheets get away is an even bigger risk. You don't get many chances to get FAs like him to come to Milwaukee very often. Acquiring guys like him in trades are generally more expensive than just cash. And you have to get dumb lucky to develop a guy like him in your system. He's just not that common a guy to just take for granted and dismiss.

[Bucky Rules]

It would be nice to see Sheets last game as a Brewer in the playoffs.

I agree. And let's hope its in the 2015 World Series.

[JJHardy7]

I believe our payroll is at $84MM (correct me if I'm wrong). Mark A has gone on record that there is room to grow if the situation arises. Our attendance will be around or over 3MM this season. We need to lose the small market mentality. This market may be small in terms of television ratings, but we support our baseball team. And Mark A has not had a small market mentality. He's treated it like medium market. I don't think we should sell ourselves short in that regard. No... we're not the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers/Cubs. But it wouldn't shock me to see our payroll hit $100MM in the next couple of years.

 

They are a small market team. The only way it's going to change is if millions of people move to Milwaukee, big tv contract, or raising ticket prices. There's nothing wrong with having a small market mentality. I personally think it's the best way to go for the long-term health of the franchise. This doesn't mean trading all good young players, but it does mean avoiding risk and I think based on the years and numbers thrown around here Sheets is a risk. Maybe we re-sign him for big money and he never gets hurt and is great...or we eat that money and are stuck with a guy at the end of the deal that will be 35 - 37 and injured. Will Sheets age well? That has to be taken into consideration.

 

But you're right about signing Sheets being a risk. So is signing any pitcher (or player for that matter) to a lot of money for a number of years. I think letting a guy as good as Sheets get away is an even bigger risk. You don't get many chances to get FAs like him to come to Milwaukee very often. Acquiring guys like him in trades are generally more expensive than just cash. And you have to get dumb lucky to develop a guy like him in your system. He's just not that common a guy to just take for granted and dismiss.

 

If Suppan had a injury history of Sheets, is there any way the Brewers sign him? My guess is not. I really don't think letting Sheets get away is a bigger risk than signing him. Again this all is speculation based on what we think and the market. If he'll take a 3-year deal, I would probably be alright with that. In reality though do you think a $75 - $100 million deal is less risky than letting him walk?

 

I don't take Sheets for granted or dismiss him, but I will again say if you find a #2 starter that stays healthy for a year the damage compared to Sheets the past few years possibly won't be as bad because we're not stuck with a #6 pitcher for 1/2 - 1/4 of the season.

[jeffy]

I'm looking at August and September when a team is in the race that they have they're #1 guy there.

 

Does it not matter that they are maybe not even in the race in August and September, if their #1 guy was not there in April, May, June, July? A regular season win is not worth any more on Sept. 15 than it is on April 15.

[JJHardy7]

Does it not matter that they are maybe not even in the race in August and September, if their #1 guy was not there in April, May, June, July? A regular season win is not worth any more on Sept. 15 than it is on April 15.

 

Well if they're not in the race I still want to see Sheets in August and September. Something he hasn't done for awhile. Wins are worth the same throughout the year obviously, but we saw what happened last year when Sheets went down. Wins don't mean anything in June and July if you collapse in August or September.

[TooLiveBrew]

I disagree. How can you not take into account Sheets DL time with the Brewers? If you don't, that's fine we just flat out agree to disagree.

What I'm doing is trying to take what kinds of injuries he's had into account (something I think should be done for any FA, esp. SP). It appears what you're focusing on is just that he's been injured. The reason I am thinking my way is that one could point to Carpenter & Sheets as having similar injury histories based on time missed (I know, Carpenter's a bit of an extreme example... just used bc he's a 'familiar face'), but in fact their injury histories are very different, and Sheets is a much less risky FA candidate (just imo).

There's a very, very big risk (depending on the contract) in bringing him back before the year and now. I guess my best hope is that Sheets flat out pitches nasty the rest of the year and we go far. We'll most likely lose him, but for all we know we never had a chance.

Absolutely -- you just outlined the way I hope this plays out. Of course, I suppose my dream scenario would be to see Sheets sign a 3 yr. $50M contract, but that ain't happenin'!

I just am honestly wondering why all the SIGN SHEETS is coming out now. If he struggles for a few starts or gets hurt the exact opposite will happen

Exactly -- just the typical 'what have you done for me in the last 15 min.?' mentality. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Did Sheets show up in better shape this year or is that something being thrown out because he hasn't been injured?

I agree that he looks 'fitter' this season than last, but I can also admit that it might just 'seem' that way to me.

Does it not matter that they are maybe not even in the race in August and September, if their #1 guy was not there in April, May, June, July? A regular season win is not worth any more on Sept. 15 than it is on April 15.

This was my point in questioning how you're defining 'clutch', JJ7. Imo fans tend to place more importance on games 'down the stretch' and ABs 'late in the game/in crunch time', but I think that's really just an invention of the human psyche for the most part. I think Benny has been as "clutch" as ever this season.

Wins are worth the same throughout the year obviously, but we saw what happened last year when Sheets went down.

Yes, but the same thing would have happened if he were hurt in April & came back to pitch in Aug./Sept. Same effect, different timeframe. Would he be any more or less clutch if it'd happened in that order? I think that limiting 'clutch' to late season or late innings really undervalues the other 2/3 of the time.

Wins don't mean anything in June and July if you collapse in August or September.

The exact same can be said for the reverse -- if you're crap early, the games late might not 'mean much' -- I guess the discussion of "clutch" in general seems like a circular argument to me.

[endaround]

The problem with getting this #2 who will never get injured is that he doesn't exist. Who are you going to get? Trade for Greinke who has never pitched more than 183 innings due to injury and other issues? And save maybe $8 million a year with him over Sheets but have to give up two major prospects to get? Trade for Bedard and have him be the "man"? He misses huge chunks of time and will likely cost $12 million next year. Sign Randy Wolf who basically didn't pitch much at all between 2004 and 2007? Sign a 41 year old Maddux and pray he doesn't collapse? Sign Derek Lowe at for his age 36-38 seasons even though his ERA is a full run higher away from run surpressing Dodger Stadium?

[Bucky Rules]

They are a small market team. The only way it's going to change is if millions of people move to Milwaukee, big tv contract, or raising ticket prices. There's nothing wrong with having a small market mentality. I personally think it's the best way to go for the long-term health of the franchise.

The Brewers organization appears to be attempting to rid themselves of that label. Their payroll is no longer one of a small market mentality. If memory serves, they're about in the middle of the pack. The best thing for the long-term health of the franchise is to win. I think it's very reasonable to win with a middle of the pack payroll.

 

Maybe we re-sign him for big money and he never gets hurt and is great...or we eat that money and are stuck with a guy at the end of the deal that will be 35 - 37 and injured. Will Sheets age well? That has to be taken into consideration.

I've said 5 years and $100MM is do-able. If it's 7 years and $140MM, I could probably be swayed to your side of the argument. The contract that I've been talking about would end when he's 34. I think we're pretty safe with his skills being in tact there - barring serious injury. I agree there is a point where I would say we just have to let him go. I guess I haven't completely settled in on where that point is. I think I'm good with 5/100MM, though.

 

I just am honestly wondering why all the SIGN SHEETS is coming out now.

I just follow the discussion boards. We've talked about this several times in the past. I've been on board with re-signing him every step of the way.

 

If Suppan had a injury history of Sheets, is there any way the Brewers sign him?

No, probably not. But, it's apples and oranges. Guys with Suppan's talent level are easier to come by, and it doesn't require dumb luck to develop a guy like that. If has a checkered health history, you just check him off the list and move to the next innings eater kind of guy. I'm not trying to belittle what he does, because there is value to it. It's just not anywhere near the kind of value of a Sheets.

 

In reality though do you think a $75 - $100 million deal is less risky than letting him walk?

It depends. Is your goal to win 85-90 games year in and year out and make the playoffs occasionally? Or is your goal to put together a team that can legitimately win the World Series? Without at least one Sheets-like stud, IMO it is much tougher to win a WS -- although on occasion teams have done it. Lightning did strike for the White Sox and Angels when their entire pitching staffs put up extremely nice seasons and Buehrle and Washburn put up near CY type seasons. I just think Sheets gives you a guy that is capable of putting up those seasons regularly, if healthy. Guys with that capability are rare. I think we can all agree his best is considerably better than Buehrle or Washburn's best. Right?

You're probably going to pounce all over that "if healthy" caveat. But, my stance on his health issues has been stated a hundred times on this thread and others. I think its over-blown. He's missed the equivalent of 1 season out of 7 seasons in the big-leagues. And the types of injuries that he has had does not indicate to me that he's any more at risk than 90% of the other pitchers in MLB to have serious problems down the road. Of course, I'm not a doctor and I don't play one on TV.

 

 

but I will again say if you find a #2 starter that stays healthy for a year the damage compared to Sheets the past few years possibly won't be as bad because we're not stuck with a #6 pitcher for 1/2 - 1/4 of the season.

That guy on the FA market will cost you near-Sheets-type money. That guy in a trade will cost you Prince Fielder -- or multiple prospects that give you a chance to keep your future payrolls reasonable and still compete at the highest levels. Not to mention, we shouldn't be looking to keep the status quo in starting pitchers. We should be looking to upgrade. If you start by letting your legit Ace walk, it's long way to upgrading. Essentially you're gambling on Yo and Parra to become ace-like and healthy. And then we fill in with another $10MM innings eater like Suppan -- or maybe trade for one that costs less. It's possible -- I'll grant you that. It's just much likelier with Sheets than without.

 

If you're OK with the status quo for a staff (which I'm not), then of course you let him walk. Because Yo just might be close enough to Ben's equal to say we'll be OK. Personally, I want them both. And I think we can make it work.