Sheets testing the market

[Bucky Rules]

Brittle Ben has been an ace at times and at others a guy just biting his nails and robbing the Brewer front office of money.

Check me if I'm wrong hauser, but I seem to recall you making the case that Chris Capuano was actually the staff ace once upon a time when those discussions were en vogue. Capuano is not (and never was) anywhere near the pitcher Ben Sheets is. On top of that he's now had two Tommy John surgeries - which IMO makes him much more of an injury risk than Ben. My point is that perspective on a pitcher's ability to take the mound every turn changes in a hurry. A guy you were calling durable and effective one year is now the guy that I would be calling "brittle" -- and never called anywhere near an ace.

 

When healthy, Ben has never been anything less than the best pitcher on this team for the last five years, and at his best he's been one of the elite pitchers in all of MLB. And for the duration of his entire career, he has missed the equivalent of one full season. Not nearly the amount of time that some make it out to be.

 

This point of Suppan's contract hurting the signing of Sheets is blown way out of water. This team had a chance to contend with Suppan in the rotation and Sheets. It has been stated before Suppan's was what the market was. Think were this team would have been without Suppan the last couple of years. Lot of the young guys would have been throwing in the majors and team would be in worse shape, as the young guys could have lost confidence or worse hurt for the time in the majors.

Suppan has helped the team. No doubt. But, my feeling from the point we signed Suppan (and I stated it on several occasions) was that I was fine with the signing as long as it doesn't keep us from re-signing Sheets in two years (which is now). IMO we are much better off with Sheets, Yo, Parra, CV/Bush/McClung, than with Suppan, Suppan equivalent, Yo, Parra, CV/Bush/McClung. Not to mention I think Sheets will come a little cheaper on an annual basis than Suppan + Suppan equivalent. If you follow what I'm trying to say here.

 

Now... if the argument against paying Sheets is that ALL pitchers are one pitch away from season/career ending injuries, and therefore none of them are worth paying $100MM, then I don't have much to combat that point. But, if anyone is worth it, I'd roll the dice with Benny.

[ozzybourne]

Keep Ben for the rest of this year. I thought about a "hometown" discount, but Ben is a pro and close to Suppan--he knows players move around and make new friends on different teams--he will not give the crew a discount.

 

With his history, I would not sign him if I'm DM.

 

But here is the bottom line for Sheets--how badly does he want to taste the World Series? I believe he will go to the team that can do this for him, and the money will follow. Big Ben likes the spotlight (Olympic gold) and has been out of it for a long time. Maybe he is being nice to the Brewers in saying 'he will test the market', instead of saying 'I'll have a better chance of making the playoffs with a different team'.

[logan82]

Invader3K wrote:

As an aside, does anyone have any idea what kind of money a team typically rakes in by making the playoffs? I keep hearing that it's a pretty big boon, but haven't heard any solid figures. I suppose it depends on how far the team advances, of course.

I am not sure of an exact number, but one postseason is supposed to have a big impact on revenue for 10 years. A postseason leads to better broadcasting contracts and an increase in attendance plus whatever income is received from the gates for extra games at increased prices for the postseason games.

[Invader3K]

I am not sure of an exact number, but one postseason is supposed to have a big impact on revenue for 10 years. A postseason leads to better broadcasting contracts and an increase in attendance plus whatever income is received from the gates for extra games at increased prices for the postseason games.

That's kind of what I figured. I have no doubt that the Brewers making the playoffs for the first time in 26 years would amount to a huge boost in revenue for the team, for the short and near future.

 

I was 2 years old in 1982. I want to be able to experience the kind of Brewers Fever that was sweeping Wisconsin that year.

[MickeyDavis]

This area went absolutely nuts in 1982. And that was with just a 5 game series against the Angels and then the World Series. Now there is an extra round of playoffs.

 

Too bad the effect only lasted one year. 1983 was a then record attendance year but by 1984 we were in last place.

[brewjihad]

Maybe he is being nice to the Brewers in saying 'he will test the market', instead of saying 'I'll have a better chance of making the playoffs with a different team'.

 

Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds as of right now, including the Brewers and other teams that Sheets has been rumored to go to after the season:

 

Brewers 42.76930

 

Yankees 13.14997

 

Mets 18.31048

 

Braves 24.21300

 

Red Sox 86.83084

 

Astros 1.62817

 

The Brewers are second on that list, behind the Red Sox. With Yovani Gallardo back next year and every position player but Cameron under contract, I think Ben would realize that the Brewers are a very good team to try to go to the playoffs with.

[Oldcity]

Big Ben likes the spotlight (Olympic gold) and has been out of it for a long time.

Pitching on the Olymic team proves he loves the spotlight? Then why would he have re-signed with the Brewers once already if Milwaukee wasn't a big enough spotlight for him?

 

[Invader3K]

I wouldn't really call Olympic baseball "the spotlight." There's a reason they have a World Baseball Classic now, and will not have baseball as an Olympic sport after this year.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I think Ben likes it in Milwaukee and really gels with the team. My guess is it is with some sadness that he goes out and shops himself. He's not like Cordero...if it was just a 2-4 million difference, Ben would probably stay. The gap is likely to be much larger, it's just the reality of the situation.

 

Ben is going nowhere this season barring an epic collapse in the next 3-4 weeks. If he stays healthy, he'll command big bucks and a 5-6 year deal in the off-season. The Brewers are in the situation they could afford him...but he would take up 20% of the payroll. That's a big, big bet and one they are unlikely to make. The window to re-sign him was last off-season, they passed, fully knowing if he pitched like this he'd price himself out of Milwaukee.

[Invader3K]

One other point (which I think was touched on earlier) is that I doubt Sheets is eager to go to a big media market like New York or LA. If he does go elsewhere, it will probably be somewhere close to home (Texas, or Houston), or a "good baseball town" that can add on payroll, like a St. Louis. Can you imagine what he'd have had to endure the last few years if he had been pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox, for example? Comments like "Brittle Ben" would have been the least of it.

[TheCrew07]

I hope he doesn't end up in the NL Central... I was assuming an AL team would pick him up... but I just got a sick feeling thinking about Sheets in a Cubs uniform... they have so many big contracts already I'm not sure they could pull it off, but the other teams in the central definately could.

[fondybrewfan]

Has Doug gone on record as saying once Ben reaches FA that he will even bid to get his services?

[Invader3K]

I doubt he's gone on record about that. It seems hard to rule out at this point, though.

[ozzybourne]

Big Ben likes the spotlight (Olympic gold) and has been out of it for a long time.

Pitching on the Olymic team proves he loves the spotlight? Then why would he have re-signed with the Brewers once already if Milwaukee wasn't a big enough spotlight for him?

 

----------

I was referring to the spotlight of the big games--like the World Series--not the spotlight of a big market. As for his initial resigning, well i dont know--but it certainly does not mean he'll resign again.

 

 

[logan82]

I think if he isn't with the Brewers Sheets goes to the Astros. They have shown they will throw around lots of money. That and they don't play in Colorado much. I think he absolutely avoids Colorado.

[JJHardy7]

I will repeat what I said earlier; Sheets is irreplaceable. They will never be able to get a guy that is as good as him for next season. Ben is one of the top five starters in baseball and that is nothing to take lightly.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing how good he is. How good is he when he's on the DL?

 

The way people talk you'd think he's missed multiple seasons with crushing arm and shoulder injuries. He's never had a shoulder or elbow issue, and he's never thrown less than 106 innings in a season.

 

Steveo it looks like you're very pro-Ben and that's fine, but I'm trying to be a little more objective. The Brewers haven't been able to count on Sheets and not having Sheets forces them to protect themselves from the injuries. 106 innings would be a lot more valuable down the stretch in a playoff run and that's simply something Sheets hasn't provided.

[TooLiveBrew]

106 innings would be a lot more valuable down the stretch in a playoff run and that's simply something Sheets hasn't provided.

 

Why, because in the first season in his career that the Brewers were close to the playoffs he happened to get hurt? That's strange to use as some form of measuring stick on him. If only he would have gotten hurt earlier in the season!

 

You may or may not notice that we're in the thick of a playoff race right now, and Ben is a (if not the) main reason for that. Let's keep the 'he's not clutch!' stuff out of this, because it's just not accurate or fair to Ben.

 

 

 

"I didn't pitch a lot of innings, but it ain't like I pitched five." -- Ben Sheets

[brewmann04]

I have to believe that the brewers will offer him an solid offer and if he wants to stay he take it.

Ben does owe the club a little with all his past Injuries.

[Bucky Rules]

I read somewhere else -- and now I can't find it to properly credit the source -- something that nails my feelings on the subject better than my words to this point. "You're either going for it, or your not."

 

Ben Sheets is definitely a "going for it" kind of move. Without him (or another pitcher of his caliber -- like a Rich Harden/Roy Oswalt/CC Sabathia kind of guy) you'll end up replacing his spot in the rotation with either a young guy feeling his way for next to no money, or a free agent veteran possibly as good as Suppan (and saving no money by having two Suppans for one Ben). If your goal is to make the playoffs and try to win a world series, I think you're much better off with Sheets, and trying to save some money elsewhere. Starting pitching is just too important.

[JJHardy7]

Why, because in the first season in his career that the Brewers were close to the playoffs he happened to get hurt? That's strange to use as some form of measuring stick on him. If only he would have gotten hurt earlier in the season!

 

You may or may not notice that we're in the thick of a playoff race right now, and Ben is a (if not the) main reason for that. Let's keep the 'he's not clutch!' stuff out of this, because it's just not accurate or fair to Ben.

 

Why? Last year's hot start and being in first place around this time didn't do the Brewers any good. I'm not saying he should've gotten hurt early, but I am saying every time he goes to the DL then essentially your #6 starter is in the rotation. If Sheets isn't on the Brewers, they could plan appropriately and not suffer the big blow of Sheets getting hurt. Sheets can't prove he's clutch unless he stays healthy. It's only June and some are acting like Sheets has already nailed the Cy Young award.

 

I'm really not totally for trading him before the deadline, but if we do that we may get more value than 2 picks (depending on what is offered), but Sheets would have to stay healthy until that point. I think it's interesting how a few months can really get everybody fired up one way or the other. Sheets is way to big of a risk for a small market team to invest in.

[TooLiveBrew]

I am saying every time he goes to the DL then essentially your #6 starter is in the rotation.

 

Right, but this happens to every team. No pitcher is immune from injuries. This is similar to the way people complain that the Brewers MUST make the most outs on the bases of any team in MLB. Pitchers get hurt. It's reality. Ben is really no more or less injury-prone than any hurler... which is why I agree with your sentiment that signing any SP to a pricey, long-term deal is a risk a smaller market like Milwaukee should be wary of. It's not that "Sheets (specifically) is way too big a risk" -- it's that that kind of contract, esp. for a SP, is a huge risk for us. This idea that Sheets is so much more injury-prone than any other pitcher is really odd to me.

 

Before people leap out with the "But look at these IP totals!", take a look around the league at other top SP. For every Oswalt, there's at least a few Carpenters/Burnetts/Martinezes. P get hurt. Ben is not any different, except that to this point his shoulder & elbow have stayed injury-free.

 

 

Sheets can't prove he's clutch unless he stays healthy.

 

Oh man. The dude is as 'clutch' as a P can be. Will it only be until he pitches game 7 of a playoff series & does well that it'll be 'ok' to recognize that?

 

 

It's only June and some are acting like Sheets has already nailed the Cy Young award.

 

Nowhere have I said this. He's a top-tier SP, healthy, and pitching to his talents. He most certainly is a serious contender for the 2008 Cy Young award.

 

 

If Sheets isn't on the Brewers, they could plan appropriately and not suffer the big blow of Sheets getting hurt.

 

What about Gallardo? Any time you lose a valuable player (P or not), the dropoff is frustrating. But that's the way it works. Any player can get hurt, and SP especially tend to get hurt more frequently. Nothing anyone can do about that.

[Bucky Rules]

If Sheets isn't on the Brewers, they could plan appropriately and not suffer the big blow of Sheets getting hurt.

If Sheets isn't on the team, what do you mean by plan appropriately? Who will they be pitching in his spot? If it's someone already in the organization, then that "plan" is in place even with Sheets. Or will it be a FA signing? If so, how much did we spend for the next mediocre guy? Or a trade? If so, what did we give up and for who?

I'm interested in hearing more about this plan. There are costs to every possible outcome.

[davego]

Sheets and his agent will do what they will; but I struggle with the concept that he 'owes' the Brewers a less-then market contract. He may choose to do sign for less, but it certainly isn't an obligation. Unless is agent is Master-P (who must have been in on the Braun negotiations)...I'd suspect Ben will go for the brass ring.

[logan82]

JJHardy7 wrote:

Steveo it looks like you're very pro-Ben and that's fine, but I'm trying to be a little more objective. The Brewers haven't been able to count on Sheets and not having Sheets forces them to protect themselves from the injuries. 106 innings would be a lot more valuable down the stretch in a playoff run and that's simply something Sheets hasn't provided.

What makes you think Stevo isn't being objective? Two people can be objective and come up with 2 totaly different opinions. Like has been mentioned by others, Sheets hasn't had any "pitching" type injuries that would point to future injuries.

[JJHardy7]

Right, but this happens to every team. No pitcher is immune from injuries.

 

I'm not going to disagree one bit with this. Small market teams just can't afford to pay a guy like Sheets given his history.

 

Oh man. The dude is as 'clutch' as a P can be. Will it only be until he pitches game 7 of a playoff series & does well that it'll be 'ok' to recognize that?

 

How is "dude" so clutch? I want to see a healthy Sheets in August and September while the Brewers are in the race. I'm not saying he won't pitch well, but I am saying will he be there in the stretch run? And again the stretch run isn't in June as we learned last year.

 

Nowhere have I said this. He's a top-tier SP, healthy, and pitching to his talents. He most certainly is a serious contender for the 2008 Cy Young award.

 

I didn't specifically say you and I apologize if I came across that way. Sheets should be in the 1st half of the season Cy Young talk, but we'll see where he's at come September.

 

What about Gallardo? Any time you lose a valuable player (P or not), the dropoff is frustrating. But that's the way it works. Any player can get hurt, and SP especially tend to get hurt more frequently. Nothing anyone can do about that.

 

Agreed. If Gallardo continues to go down with injuries, we can put him in the same category as Sheets. I don't think Sheets continuous injuries compare to general injuries to pitchers. It's beyond frustrating.

 

If Sheets isn't on the team, what do you mean by plan appropriately? Who will they be pitching in his spot? If it's someone already in the organization, then that "plan" is in place even with Sheets. Or will it be a FA signing? If so, how much did we spend for the next mediocre guy? Or a trade? If so, what did we give up and for who?

 

I'm interested in hearing more about this plan.

 

It's simple really. You try and get the best 5 pitchers you can and every year Sheets is #1 and we wait for him to get hurt. Without Sheets the Brewers will most likely pursue another pitcher. Will it be of Sheets' caliber? Probably not, but if they get a guy a few notches below Sheets that stays healthy for the year that in a way makes up for the big drop off going from Sheets to some of the guys we've had to use in the past.

 

Like TheCrew07 mentioned if you haven't checked it out take a look at the minor league forum. The Brewers are full of talent and part of this "plan" could be packaging some of these guys for a pretty darn good pitcher. The Brewers have several options and to me it just doesn't make sense to give Sheets the kind of money being talked about around here. The Brewers are a small market team.