Sheets testing the market

[logan82]

kramnoj wrote:

My point was that I would rather decrease the odds of winning this season and increase the odds of winning in future seasons, if it meant that I could get prospects that would be better than 2 draft picks. But that doesn't matter, as it seems clear that the Brewers won't trade Sheets.

I wouldn't want to decrease the odds of winning this season to increase the odds next season. There are so many things that can go wrong within a season that if you have a chance to make the post season you shouldn't pass it up. My understanding is that one post season will create a large increase in income for a team over the next 10 years.

 

I would agree that there is a good chance that we could get prospects better than what we can draft with compensation picks.

[kramnoj]

wouldn't want to decrease the odds of winning this season to increase the odds next season. There are so many things that can go wrong within a season that if you have a chance to make the post season you shouldn't pass it up.

 

Neither would I. But I would trade one season for 6 future seasons. And the other benefit of prospects as opposed to draft picks is that they would be closer to the major leagues, and could contrubute as soon as next year. The picks from Sheets leaving probably won't impact the Brewers for at least 2 years, and often 3-5 years down the road.

[TheCrew07]

If Milwaukee traded Sheets they would not get any premium prospects back... Melvin said it himself, he'll trade quanity, but not quality.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I will repeat what I said earlier; Sheets is irreplaceable. They will never be able to get a guy that is as good as him for next season. Ben is one of the top five starters in baseball and that is nothing to take lightly. So Melvin can spend over 20 million combined on the likes of Gagne, Suppan, Mota, Counsell, Turnbow, but we cant take the chance of giving a 5 yr contract to our ace who is a proven star pitcher? The hardest thing to develop is pitching and aces dont exactly grow on trees. Suppan who is a very average pitcher got 42 mil for 4 yrs. Ben is the only starter we have this season who I feel confident about when he pitches. To go into the future counting on the likes of Bush and McClung is not the way to go. We have 3 million people paying to see this team play this season. Who better to spend the money on than Ben Sheets who clearly enjoys playing for the Brewers. If we lose him this will be the biggest mistake Melvin and Mark A have ever made and it will cripple our playoff hopes for years to come. That is just completely unacceptable.

[BrewCrewForever]

All I can say is if Sheets goes, I hope its to an AL team. And I will watch any game he pitches that is on TV that I can see because even in another uniform I will support him because he is a pure joy to watch pitch.

 

Doug, please give Ben what he wants. He is worth it. Where would we be this season without him? Just ask that question.

[davego]

some people here act like if we flip Sheets now we are going to get 3 Hall-of-Famers...if we get the 2 picks; for crying out loud they have value and Jack sort of drafts well...

 

Again, if I'm the team trading for Ben, why am I going to unload 2 or 3 really top-shelf guys that I control for 6 years for a 3-month rental?

[logan82]

kramnoj wrote:

But I would trade one season for 6 future seasons. And the other benefit of prospects as opposed to draft picks is that they would be closer to the major leagues, and could contrubute as soon as next year. The picks from Sheets leaving probably won't impact the Brewers for at least 2 years, and often 3-5 years down the road.

I wouldn't give up on this season for the next 6 seasons even. We are in a really good position to make the playoffs right now. In past years we were just trying to make .500 so it made sense to trade the current season for better future seasons. To me it makes abbsolutley no sense to trade a possible playoff berth for a chance at better future seasons.

[owbc]

I don't understand how Sheets went from an injury prone, underachieving question mark to a proven star ace in 2 1/2 months.

 

Secondly, we may have more money to spend, but we are still a below-average team in terms of payroll. The reality is, only the top 5-7 teams in baseball can afford Sheets without serious implications down the road.

[BrewCrewForever]

If Sheets does walk after the season the picks will be fine with me, it would be crazy to trade Ben now considering how hot the team is and that we are not to far behind the Cubs anymore and only a handful of games behind the Cards for the wild card. That makes no sense to me.

[TheCrew07]

I will repeat what I said earlier; Sheets is irreplaceable. They will never be able to get a guy that is as good as him for next season. Ben is one of the top five starters in baseball and that is nothing to take lightly. So Melvin can spend over 20 million combined on the likes of Gagne, Suppan, Mota, Counsell, Turnbow, but we cant take the chance of giving a 5 yr contract to our ace who is a proven star pitcher? The hardest thing to develop is pitching and aces dont exactly grow on trees. Suppan who is a very average pitcher got 42 mil for 4 yrs. Ben is the only starter we have this season who I feel confident about when he pitches. To go into the future counting on the likes of Bush and McClung is not the way to go. We have 3 million people paying to see this team play this season. Who better to spend the money on than Ben Sheets who clearly enjoys playing for the Brewers. If we lose him this will be the biggest mistake Melvin and Mark A have ever made and it will cripple our playoff hopes for years to come. That is just completely unacceptable.

You're making the counter point against your arguement for us.... you can pay 5 other players what you would have to Ben. He's going to be 31 next season, he's going to start declining. Who knows what Ben Sheets you'll have at 35? Free agent pitching is not a good market for the Brewers, and if you won't at least concede the point that an $18 million contract would hand cuff the Brewers financially, then you simply aren't being objective. The issue isn't if they can afford Sheets, the issue is if signing him to a 4 or 5 year deal is in the best long term interests of the franchise? He isn't in the top 5 pitchers in baseball, he might be in the top 10 today, but again, where will he be in 5 years? For me, and I think for the Brewers, the issue isn't where Ben will be next season, but how productive he'll be in 4 seasons, because the Brewers cannot afford to pay any player $18 mil to be on the DL or ineffective.

 

Also, in my opinion losing Sheets will not cut the playoff legs for years to come, there is literally a ton of talent that will available to help in the next 2-3 years in house. There's a wealth of information on the minor league forum if you're willing to get aquainted with the pitching and positional prospects that could have a measurable impact on the big club in the near future. I'm very intrigued by Braddock, Jeffress, Anundsen, Rivas, and Periard as SP but unfortunately they are all in A+ or A right now. The next teir down would be Hammond, Welch, Hand, and Miller all of whom are in AAA or AA right now. The top reliefs prospects are Pena, Aguilar, and Ryan... 2 closers and a setup guy all in AA or AAA... Positional players you have Gamel, LaPorta, Salome, Escobar, Brantley, Lucroy, Green and possibly Cain in the top tier, guys that have the potential to be everyday players... The next tier down is absolutely loaded Rottino, Nelson, Gillespie, Katin, Iribarren, TGJ, Errecart, Bell, and more..... and those I listed are just they guys that could contribute in AAA or AA right now. There isn't going to be room for all of these bats, so some are going to be moved to fill holes elsewhere.

 

If Ben Sheets leaves in Free Agency the sky will not fall, I promise. The system is plenty deep to help fill voids created by trades, or in trades to aquire pieces to fill the voids. The Brewers are well positioned for the near future, Melvin just has to play a good game of chess.

 

edit. Fixed gramar and completed a thought.

[kramnoj]

some people here act like if we flip Sheets now we are going to get 3 Hall-of-Famers...if we get the 2 picks; for crying out loud they have value and Jack sort of drafts well...

 

Again, if I'm the team trading for Ben, why am I going to unload 2 or 3 really top-shelf guys that I control for 6 years for a 3-month rental?

 

Is there someone here who has said that we should expect 3 HoFers? 10 years ago Houston wanted to make a splash for the stretch run and traded the futures of Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama for Randy Johnson. It all depends on how desperate another team is. I wouldn't trade Sheets just to trade him, but if some team became so desperate that they were willing to give up major league ready pitching that would make the Brewers better for the next 6 years I would do it.

 

Jack does draft well, no question. But major league ready prospects are closer to contributing, will have a better chance of success and you also get the benefit of not having to pay their signing bonus.

[danzig6767]

Trading Sheets, in my opinion, is giving up on the season.

 

I agree with you. My point was that I would rather decrease the odds of winning this season and increase the odds of winning in future seasons, if it meant that I could get prospects that would be better than 2 draft picks. But that doesn't matter, as it seems clear that the Brewers won't trade Sheets.

 

Wow, utterly amazing to me that any Brewers fan would be willing to punt away this year even though we are a measly 2 games back from leading the race for a playoff berth. This franchise hasn't made the playoffs since 1982 and fans are filling the stadium in droves, yet you'd be willing to kick all those fans in the teeth and piss off all the players who are busting their ass to get in the playoffs, all just to acquire a few more prospects that may not even pan out vs just keeping Sheets and taking the draft picks after the season. Just look at Cleveland this year, many thought they'd be back in the playoffs, but they are yet another example of how being in a solid position for a playoff berth from year to year is far from a given and it's important to make it while you have the chance.

Plus, we have young players that the team wants to lock up. Nice message that you'd be sending them or other players around the league who finally are warming up to playing/staying in Milwaukee. Only 2 games back and owners of the third best record in the NL, yet your idea would be to trade arguably the most important player on the team and kill the hopes of all the players in that dugout. Yea, that i'm sure would go over really well in the clubhouse and in this city among the fans filling Miller Park.

[kramnoj]

Wow, utterly amazing to me that any Brewers fan would be willing to punt away this year even though we are a measly 2 games back from leading the race for a playoff berth.

 

That's because you are thinking as a fan for this year. I'm thinking as a fan of the team going forward. If you can't accept that, that's fine, but sarcasm doesn't belong in a rational discussion.

[danzig6767]

I wasn't being sarcastic at all though, i was 100% serious with everything i said and didn't find anything about it being irrational.

[kramnoj]

I wasn't being sarcastic at all though, i was 100% serious with everything i said and didn't find anything about it being irrational.

 

Really? So the text in blue wasn't sarcastic? Why make it in blue then?

 

I love a good discussion. Feel free to actually engage my points. The picks that the Brewers will get when Sheets leaves might not turn into major leaguers by the time that Fielder, Weeks and Hardy are on the team. I would love to watch this group compete for a championship. I strongly believe that getting major league prospects by trading away Sheets to a desperate team at the deadline is the best way to make that happen.

 

I don't want Sheets to go at all. I want the Brewers to aggressively sign Sheets. But that isn't happening, and it doesn't sound like it's going to happen. It doesn't sound like the Brewers are interesting in trading Ben either, so this is all hypothetical.

[trwi7]

Yeah danzig's post is spot on. Trading Sheets in the position we're in now is not only a kick in the teeth to the fans who have supported this team and have been waiting 26 years (and in many cases their whole lives) for a playoff berth but also to the players who are on the field everyday and as of now have put the team in a position to possibly make a run at the playoffs.

 

Trading by far the best pitcher on the team when you're only two games out of a playoff spot is just ridiculous. So you might lose him, you still get the draft picks. Well those draft picks might be busts! So what? The prospects you get for Sheets might be as well.

[kramnoj]

Trading by far the best pitcher on the team when you're only two games out of a playoff spot is just ridiculous.

 

I agree, it is. But I also find it ridiculous that the team hasn't made an offer to Sheets to keep him. Sheets will be gone. Once we accept that, then the Brewers should do what they can to get the best return out of him leaving. If no team is desperate and won't give up 2-3 major league ready or close pitchers, than keep Sheets and go for the playoff run. But if the Brewers can increase their odds of winning in the near future and for multiple years, I definitely make that deal.

[cwolf2012]

I'm a huge proponent of not marginalizing the future for today's success, but I don't see any good reason to trade Sheets right now. You could make an argument for trading Fielder or Hardy for sure (and Hall, but no one wants him), but unless we really fall apart in the playoff race, there's no big gain to be made for Sheets. As it stands, I'm perfectly content to ride out the rest of the season with our current staff. I expect moves to be made next year, but not now.

 

I think the best argument to trading Sheets and giving up on the season is that without a playoff berth this year, Yost should get fired.

[danzig6767]

I wasn't being sarcastic at all though, i was 100% serious with everything i said and didn't find anything about it being irrational.

I love a good discussion. Feel free to actually engage my points.

 

 

I very clearly did so

I think it would be an absolutely terrible move to badly alienate the city of Milwaukee and all the fans filling Miller Park, along with sticking a dagger in the hearts of the other 24 guys on the roster who have clawed back to the third best record in the NL and who are a tiny two games behind the Cardinals, all just to get a couple of prospects for Sheets instead playing out the season and taking the draft picks.

 

The backlash from the fans and players would be enormous and justified. At some point a franchise needs to stop always just thinking about tomorrow, especially a team that's only two games back, that's playing well, has a pretty stocked farm system, and besides the Cubs, the NL not looking like another other team is good enough to run away with the Wild Card from the Brewers. Thankfully though, i don't think Melvin or Attanasio would at all share your line of thinking on this, so long as the team is close or leading the Wild Card come late July. They know the ugly ramifications that could follow by selling out the season on the fans and players, along with not wanting to damage the positive reputation the Brewers franchise has finally started to build up among many players around the league that not long ago looked at Milwaukee as a place you only wanted to play for as a last resort.

I'm a huge proponent of not marginalizing the future for today's success, but I don't see any good reason to trade Sheets right now.

This i agree with. While i do think it would be insanity to consider trading Sheets for prospects at any point this year if the team stays in close contention for a playoff berth, i wouldn't sell out much of the future to only get 10-12 starts from a guy like Sabathia if Cleveland asked for a package including say Laporta and two other pretty good prospects. That's the great thing about right now. The franchise has quite a few high quality young players on the big league roster that has the third best record in the NL, plus the farm system has multiple other high level prospects that either are ready now or close to being ready for the bigs. Keeping Sheets and seeing if he can help finally getting this team to the playoffs after decades of missing them, it wouldn't be crippling if he left after this year and we only got picks back because Zduriencik has done such a fabulous job restocking the farm system.

[ILuvDaBush]

I know that many times Melvin has said one thing, and then done the complete opposite, but I truly believe him when he says that unless the Brewers fall COMPLETELY out of contention, Sheets will be pitching for Milwaukee come September. Considering the Rockies surge last year, and given the fact that while we're a small-market, we don't have small market attendance, it would be foolish to trade one of our most marketable icons. Would I do Masterson or Buccholz, Billingsley or Kershaw, Price or Shields, Scherzer or Liriano for Sheets? Almost undoubtedly. But I find it impossible to believe talents like those are available for two months of our ace.

[kramnoj]

I very clearly did so

 

You really haven't. You have addressed the general idea that trading Sheets away is a bad idea, but you haven't specifically addressed what I've been talking about. I'm wondering if you have actually read everything I've said. I've very clearly said that Melvin has said that he won't trade Sheets and that this is hypothetical but you still feel the need to point out that Melvin won't trade Sheets.

 

I've specifically said that I wouldn't trade Sheets for just prospects, but that's what you are talking about. I would only trade Sheets away for a deal like what Houston gave away for the Big Unit. A pitcher like Freddy Garcia who is able to start the next season and be a 1/2 type pitcher and throw 200 innings in 5 of the next 6 seasons. That would make the next team immediately better and would set them up for the next 6 years. The chance of that happening with a draft pick is lower. If we agree that we have different opinions about that, that's fine, but don't pretend that I'm not a fan of the Brewers because I want them to be better next year.

[Invader3K]

I'm with the general concesnsus that seems to be here, that Sheets should only be traded if the team tanks badly before the All-Star break, or before the July trading deadline (more realistically). Otherwise, having Sheets is probably going to give us the best chance to make the playoffs this year, something that would give such a HUGE boost to this team.

 

As an aside, does anyone have any idea what kind of money a team typically rakes in by making the playoffs? I keep hearing that it's a pretty big boon, but haven't heard any solid figures. I suppose it depends on how far the team advances, of course.

[Oldcity]

I don't understand how Sheets went from an injury prone, underachieving question mark to a proven star ace in 2 1/2 months.

He was always a proven ace.

 

[hauser42]

Brittle Ben has been an ace at times and at others a guy just biting his nails and robbing the Brewer front office of money.

 

Sheets needs to be kept this year as the team does have a great chance to make the playoffs. Right now he is a top 5 pitcher in the game but at any point Brittle Ben could turn up and this team could fall from grace. My view on signing him for another contract has changed a little in that it might be a good thing, but the length would worry me.

 

This point of Suppan's contract hurting the signing of Sheets is blown way out of water. This team had a chance to contend with Suppan in the rotation and Sheets. It has been stated before Suppan's was what the market was. Think were this team would have been without Suppan the last couple of years. Lot of the young guys would have been throwing in the majors and team would be in worse shape, as the young guys could have lost confidence or worse hurt for the time in the majors.

[Oldcity]

The way people talk you'd think he's missed multiple seasons with crushing arm and shoulder injuries. He's never had a shoulder or elbow issue, and he's never thrown less than 106 innings in a season.