Sheets testing the market

[kramnoj]

Yes, lets never try to compete for the playoffs, lets just keep developing prospects forever. It's so much fun to lose every year as long as I can read here about how the major league team would be improved if they just brought up _______ from AAA or AA.

 

As good as the Brewers have been for the last month, they aren't currently in the playoff picture. Which would you rather have: 3 months of rolling the dice and hoping this team makes it, or 6 future years of near major league ready prospects?

 

I would personally like the team to keep Sheets and aggressively try to keep him in the offseason, but if the Brewers have aleady determined that they have no chance of retaining Ben, I would love for them to put him on the market and see what we can get.

[PeaveyFury]

As good as the Brewers have been for the last month, they aren't currently in the playoff picture.

 

How do you define 'in the playoff picture'? At the end of the day today, it's possible for them to be 0.5 games out of the Wildcard and 4 games out in the division. As of now, they're very much in the race.

 

But a lot can change in the next month.

[kramnoj]

As good as the Brewers have been for the last month, they aren't currently in the playoff picture.

 

How do you define 'in the playoff picture'? At the end of the day today, it's possible for them to be 0.5 games out of the Wildcard and 4 games out in the division. As of now, they're very much in the race.

 

But a lot can change in the next month.

 

They aren't in the playoffs if the season ended right now, and I don't think that the recent performances of Bush and McClung are sustainable and chances are high that Torres is eventually going to blow a couple of games. I don't really think that the Cards can hold this up either, but I never thought they would last as long as they have.

 

There is talk over at BBTF that the Brewers might trade for Sabbathia for the stretch and go for the playoffs Marlins style, letting both Sheets and Sabbathia leave for the draft picks. There is a certain appeal to that approach, which entirely depends on how much Sabbathia will cost.

[Tbadder]

And if we don't make the playoffs? I don't know the exact chances, but my bet is that they don't make it even with Sheets. So by all means lets throw him away for a couple of picks.

[jeffy]

As good as the Brewers have been for the last month, they aren't currently in the playoff picture. Which would you rather have: 3 months of rolling the dice and hoping this team makes it, or 6 future years of near major league ready prospects?

 

As of right now, I'd rather they take their chances on making it this season. I'm not quite sure what "6 future years of near major league ready prospects" means, but I certainly do not agree with the idea that we must trade every decent player for prospects and bring up the "stars" from AA and AAA. If they do decide to trade Sheets, it would probably make it a certainty that he would just go to the highest bidder. If they treat him right, there is a chance that Milwaukee could get a bit of a discount.

 

Are some really ready to give up when we are 1.5 games behind the wild card leader and have the third best record in the NL???

[Oldcity]

PECOTA has the Brewers at a 52% chance at the playoffs entering today. You have to keep Sheets and just hope you can re-sign him.

[kramnoj]

I'm not quite sure what "6 future years of near major league ready prospects" means,

 

It means having 6 controlled years of the best prospects of another team that should be able to be plugged into the Brewers roster tomorrow or at the latest next year.

 

Are some really ready to give up when we are 1.5 games behind the wild card leader and have the third best record in the NL???

 

I don't know if some are or not. That's not my personal preference. But if the team has absolutely no interest in retaining Sheets, I would prefer him to be dealt for star prospects than let him walk for picks. But it doesn't really matter what my preference is. It sounds like the Brewers aren't going to trade Sheets and it sounds like they've come to the conclusion that some other team is going to offer more than they are in FA. Based on the Doug Melvin conversation talked about it in another thread, it actually sounds like Melvin is going to make a trade for another pitcher and really go all in this year. Should be an interesting summer.

[Tbadder]

I for one am ready to give up on the year. Fielder doesn't want to be here. Sheets doesn't want to be here. Hart won't sign a contract--forget about him. Gallardo is done for the year. Hardy's not what we thought he might be. Gagne flamed out. Weeks hasn't had his breakout. Braun's great but he can't do it alone. Guys like Kapler and Branyan aren't gonna keep pace; Hall isn't gonna suddenly turn it around. The pitching cupboard is bare in the minors. I just don't think I can believe in this team, if we can even call it a team.

[logan82]

kramnoj wrote:

if the team has absolutely no interest in retaining Sheets, I would prefer him to be dealt for star prospects than let him walk for picks.

That would be a good thought if we had no chance of making the playoffs, but since we do and will need every win to make it, keeping Sheets makes sense. The playoffs are a crapshoot for everybody after you make it and the best chance to win a World Series is making the playoffs as often as possible. If there is a chance to makes the playoffs you go for it. Things could change drastically next year. The rest of the NL is having a down year right now and we should make the most of this opportunity. Trading Sheets, in my opinion, is giving up on the season.

[Bring Back the Stein]

I for one am ready to give up on the year. Fielder doesn't want to be here. Sheets doesn't want to be here. Hart won't sign a contract--forget about him. Gallardo is done for the year. Hardy's not what we thought he might be. Gagne flamed out. Weeks hasn't had his breakout. Braun's great but he can't do it alone. Guys like Kapler and Branyan aren't gonna keep pace; Hall isn't gonna suddenly turn it around. The pitching cupboard is bare in the minors. I just don't think I can believe in this team, if we can even call it a team.

I know you're kidding, but this litany does still cause a cold sweat. And, at least I HOPE you're kidding, otherwise I'm going to open the veins after I'm done eating these tamales.

[Oldcity]

Was he kidding? I wasn't so sure...

[SeriesFinale]

Remember, friends: it's "down the road", not "across the street"

 

I always thought of myself as a cynic and a bit of a pessimist until I came to brewerfan.net

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I do think we should have signed Sheets over the off-season, but it was a tough decision for DM & Mark A given Sheets injury history. I always felt none of the injuries were arm/structural in nature so it was probably worth a shot, but I'm not privy to his medical records so who knows.

 

For the Brewers to keep this run going, they need productive below-market players like our youngsters and can take selective shots around it. They also need to sign value and Ben was a value before the season. Their choice on Ben not to sign last offseason basically sealed his fate - he pitches well, he's unaffordable or he pitches poorly/gets hurt. Either way he was gone.

 

The 20/20 hindsight does us no good. If we signed him and he got hurt, this thread would be calling for DM's head. At this point we have to ask, do we really want 20% of the next 5 years payroll tied up with Ben? The hope of a hometown discount is pretty slim and it's a big risk.

 

Yo could possibly fill Sheets' spot and be a number one. The rest of our staff is doing well now, but is still a big question mark heading into 2009. With a shortage of arms at AA/AAA, we'll likely have to trade some lineup or prospect depth for a starter. I just hope Ben can give us some nice memories down the stretch and get us to that elusive playoff berth!!!

[TooLiveBrew]

So we pack MP with close to 3 million people spending money every game, and yet we still can't keep our own guys?

 

The decision isn't can/can't. It's should/shouldn't.

 

 

Which would you rather have: 3 months of rolling the dice and hoping this team makes it, or 6 future years of near major league ready prospects?

 

Wait... which one is sooner? MUST HAPPEN NOW!

 

This is the kind of thing that I think is best approached with 'wait & see'. I agree with Stevo -- just ride him out & gun for the playoffs. If he leaves, he leaves. There's not much the Brewers can do now aside from wait. The chance that a team will try to trade for Sheets & hope that he re-signs before testing FA is probably very, very slim.

[bcf5575]

the interview sounded to me like sheets WANTS to be here and that he is somewhat hurt by the fact that the Brewers wont even talk to him about a contract. what else is he supposed to say? the brewers havent offered anything to him yet - he HAS TO test the market!!

[TheCrew07]

I agree that Sheets is gone; that's why we have to trade him for prospects. I realize how unpopular that's going to be.

What GM in their right mind is going to give up premium prospects for a rental? I don't get all these proposed trades that include top prospects for rental players, that just doesn't happen. I really like Inman and that he was a top prospect, the organization obviously felt otherwise. Even if someone offered prospects for Sheets, he's not going anywhere, we'll get draft picks for compensation.

 

I wish people would get past the "small market" thing. The Brewers are 15th in MLB in payroll. They aren't a small market payroll team anymore. While Sheets will demand a significant amount of money, he will only cost money--not players as well.

The Brewers most certainly have the smallest market in MLB, that point has been hammered into the ground, it effects everything including their TV contract. Having a middle of the pack payroll simply means that they don't have much more to spend on players. If the Brewers break the top 10 in payroll, I'm going to seriously question the profitability of the franchise. If you think that overspending for free agent pitching only affects one player, I think you're very mistaken, there is a domino effect that you're refusing to consider. Suppan is around for 2 more years and will not be coming off the books, he has a no trade and then a limited no trade. In the short term can the Brewers afford Sheets? Absolutely, but long term his contract will have negative consequences. The young core of hitters is reaching arby, and they'll want to resign 2 or 3 of those guys long term, I much more concerned with the long term health of the franchise than I am a playoff appearance this year. I honestly feel the best years with this current team are about 2 years away, there's plenty of talented help coming, and I see no reason to panic. The Brewers could very well could make the playoffs with the Wildcard this year without having to make a single move.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

the interview sounded to me like sheets WANTS to be here and that he is somewhat hurt by the fact that the Brewers wont even talk to him about a contract.

I had a somewhat similar feel, but I think its more related to him not getting an offer during the off-season when he would have been receptive to it. At this point he probably gets that his value is beyond the Brewers reach.

[bigredrobbo]

Thanks to management not being proactive with Sheets we will probably lose him. I guess Melvin thinks he can compete with the likes of Bush, Suppan, and McClung. Good luck with that thinking. This is why I have little faith that Melvin is capable of putting together a championship level pitching staff. Offering a closer like Cordero 42 mil for 4 yrs and paying Suppan 10 mil per year as well as giving big money to a stiff like Gagne while ignoring your staffs ace is assinine and a big reason why Jack Z should replace Melvin. I can just see Derek Lowe being handed a 3 yr 40 million contract while Sheets takes his Cy Young abilities elsewhere. Ben Sheets is irreplaceable.

 

Purleeeease. Nobody is irreplaceable. I'm not saying they come around like buses every 5 minutes, but, c'mon, enough with the "sky is falling" hyperbole.

 

And this is at least the 2nd post that "Derek Lowe's fantasy Brewers contract that doesn't actually exist yet" has been brought up.

Calling Gagne a stiff because his $10m contract hasn't exactly panned out reminds me of a number of posts round about the first time Sheets went on the DL after signing his last big payday. The fact that he's (knock on wood) stayed healthy at the end of his contract is unfortunate, but that's baseball.

 

I believe, that the only offer that would have made Benny NOT want to test the open market would have been one that would have been lambasted for being too much for a guy that's shown to be, shall we say, fragile at best.

 

I love him to bits, and want more than anything for him to stay but can anyone honestly say they didn't see this coming? In ST we knew that a poor or injury-ridden season would have the Crew not offer a contract, while a great season would price us out of re-signing him. I don't see what's changed.

 

All I know is that I'll be cheering as loudly as anyone the first time we play against him next year when they present his World Series ring at Miller Park! And, no, I'm not drunk!

[Bucky Rules]

As Stevo spelled out, signing Sheets to a 5 yr/$100M is do-able, and I think I'd do it. If it took trading Suppan to one of his non-exempt teams, I'd do whatever is reasonable to get that done, too. I sincerely hope that the Suppan deal does not end up being a big contributing factor to not re-signing Sheets. I'd clearly rather have a $20M Sheets over a $10-12M Suppan. No question in my mind - and there never was. If Sheets comes a little cheaper than that -- Great!

[cwolf2012]

Would you all seriously pay an injury-prone pitcher over $500,000 a start (and that's if he starts every game he's supposed to)?

[Bucky Rules]

Would you all seriously pay an injury-prone pitcher over $500,000 a start (and that's if he starts every game he's supposed to)?

No, but I would be willing to pay Ben Sheets up to $20M/yr for 5 years. Guys as good as him don't come along very often. And I consider him more unlucky than injury prone. He's had no arm/elbow surgeries. He did have back surgery, but I don't believe he missed any time for that. That's my rationale and I'm sticking to it. Even in the three years that everybody points to as evidence of his being injury prone, he still made about 63 (?) starts to the tune of about 400 IP.

[Oldcity]

Would you all seriously pay an injury-prone pitcher over $500,000 a start (and that's if he starts every game he's supposed to)?

Well if you know he'll start every game he's supposed to, I probably would. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I know Sheets has been injured, but he's never come close to missing a full season, and he's been good/great whenever he's healthy enough to pitch. I don't really think 5 years/100 mil is a good idea, but I'm not convinced the Brewers will need to go that high.

There are ways to make the payroll work. If you need to shed salary, don't do it with your elite players--do it with you role players. Deal Suppan, don't pay 3 mil for Craig Counsells and Guillermo Motas, etc.

 

[kramnoj]

Trading Sheets, in my opinion, is giving up on the season.

 

I agree with you. My point was that I would rather decrease the odds of winning this season and increase the odds of winning in future seasons, if it meant that I could get prospects that would be better than 2 draft picks. But that doesn't matter, as it seems clear that the Brewers won't trade Sheets.

[T B0NE 10]

I feel that if Sheets tests the market, we are screwed. We cannot compete with the Yankees. The Yankees will put out ANY number to get a pitcher of his quality.

[Bucky Rules]

I feel that if Sheets tests the market, we are screwed. We cannot compete with the Yankees. The Yankees will put out ANY number to get a pitcher of his quality.

That may be true, but it's possible that it could get to a point where he'd rather stay where he's comfortable than go to New York. We'd have to put up a big number, though, I would guess -- and then MAYBE we get a discount.

 

If the Braves or Houston or someone closer to his home puts up a big number, we may not get any discount.