Sheets testing the market

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't see how any reasonable person can blame the Brewers for not trying to re-sign Sheets before this season.

 

When BF.net had this discussion in the past -- I recall most of the posters here were against signing Sheets to an extension -- so I agree with the above sentiment in a general sort of way -- there were definitely people though that wanted DM to lock up Sheets with an extension, so I could certainly understand why those dudes would be a bit rankled right about now.

 

In the comments someone speculated that he might prefer a 3 year contract so he can once again be a free agent at 33 as opposed to 35 (if he signed a 5 year deal). Sign me up for $47/3 for sure.

 

I'd be surprised if Ben opted for the short deal. I think he will get both the years and $$$ he wants.

[fondybrewfan]

I am pretty sure that I will cry if Ben Sheets is pitching for another team. I just hope for my sake he ends up with an AL team. If he would accept 4 or 5 years at $18 million I would do it, if it goes higher than that move on.

[bklynbrewcrew]

FTJ, I was one of those people begging the team to extend Sheets last offseason when we had the chance to do it for far less money than it will cost now. Sometimes you have to take a chance and the chance is worth taking on a pitcher that is the caliber of Ben Sheets. Any contract that a pitcher receives is risky but you cant build your staff around a bunch of Suppans and hope to outslug teams every night. Melvin seems more interested in beer league baseball than having a top flight stud leading his staff. Ben Sheets is irreplaceable and it is sad that Melvin and Attanassio are clueless to this fact.

[cwolf2012]

If only we had hindsight at the beginning of the season. I can't believe how upset you guys are about him not being resigned. I didn't think we had a chance of bringing him back after this season regardless of how he pitched. He's obviously an amazing pitcher when he plays, so if he started 30 games, he would be too good for us to afford him. If he had gotten injured again, it would have been dumb to resign a guy who hadn't pitched a full season since 2004.

 

Stop trying to use hindsight unless you were a proponent of extending him before this season (which I disagree with anyway).

[obobo55]

There is very little reason for Ben to negotiate now. Those of you hoping they can cut a deal with him this year still are really living in la-la-land. In the offseason, he can have 8-12 teams bidding for his services (NYM, NYY, LAA, LAD, HOU, BOS, TEX, BAL, CHC, CHW, STL, MIL). Half of those teams could decide to add an extra year not even expecting to have him pitch and not flinch (look at Pedro's contract). So if you are Sheets, regardless of the injury risk, you wait it out.

 

The real question is--How much does it take to get it done? The second question is--Can the Brewer's afford to tie up that much payroll for an ace? My best guess is 5/100. I think some of those teams may be willing to go 6 or 7 years though. I don't think the Brewer's can afford to go that far. Does Sheets take the biggest offer or does he want to stay in Milwaukee and retire a legend? I can't say I would would blame him no matter which option he chose.

 

bklyn, I think you are off base in your criticism. I don't think Ben would have taken less than a 5-year extension as this is his only real shot at the big deal. He will be 30 as he negotiates this deal, there is no way he extends for 3 years and tries to be a FA again at 33. I don't think the Crew mismanaged Ben on the contract front. With his injuries, you simply could not risk a 5-6 year extension last offseason.

 

Can you win w/o an ace? Yes. It just becomes more difficult. Perhaps the Brewer's could just push the envelope on the lineup and field a team that slugs its way to a championship. $20 million is a lot of cash. You could get a very good bullpen for that amount. A team that averages 6 runs a game and has a stellar BP can win a lot with just decent SP's.

[Thurston Fluff]

Thanks to management not being proactive with Sheets we will probably lose him. I guess Melvin thinks he can compete with the likes of Bush, Suppan, and McClung.

 

The last time the team was proactive with Sheets he didn't exactly make them look like geniuses. One good year in his contract year isn't really what we paid him all that money for. As far as Melvin thinking he can compete with the likes of Bush, Suppon and McClung goes he is competing with the likes of Bush, Suppon and McClung isn't he? They still have YoGa and Parra. So far YoGa is unproven but I haven't seen any reason why he couldn't be an ace down the road. Parra is still young but after a full year under his belt he should be that much better. Parra really does have the stuff to be at least a 2. YoGa has the ability to be a 1. I'd be all for keeping Sheets. If we lose him I'm not going to just resign myself to another 15 years of futility. I think we have enough talent in the rotation and a little depth with Villy to keep the team going forward until some of the younger pitchers start to filter in.

[JohnBriggs12]

In a perfect world, a guy like Sheets, who if he stays healthy the rest of this year has missed about 25% of his possible starts (or 1 full year) over the life of his last contract,

including last September in crunch time, would feel some sense of loyalty to the franchise that drafted, developed and paid him handsomely, and suffered through a variety of injuries, and at least say something like "I hope something can be worked out".

 

No, it's the world of major league baseball, where money talks, and players lose all sense of anything beyond the bottom line. When a guy's going well, like Sheets is now, all they get told by people within their circle is how that is going to pay off. But as Bill Hall has learned, if you struggle after signing a deal, you're better off just keeping your mouth shut.

 

I hope Sheets goes out in a blaze of glory as a Brewer. Maybe that will erase my lasting image of him calling out trainers last September while warming up before an inning.

[JJHardy7]

I just don't see how the Brewers could've offered him a deal before the season. Unless you wanted it then it's a moot point now.

 

I also think it's way too early in the season to get worked up about Sheets. Has he pitched very well? Yes, I'm not going to disagree one bit with that. It is only June and until we're in September and Sheets hasn't taken a trip to the DL I'm not counting on him 100%. Wasn't he still healthy around this time last year? We may end up losing Sheets to free agency, but in my mind he's still nowhere near the risk for this organization. I know a lof of fans want a lot of the young guys re-signed and Sheets. Where is all this money going to come from? The Brewers are currently profitable and unless they sell out every game and increase ticket prices they can't continue to add costs. I know the Brewers have money now, but that doesn't mean they have an unlimited amount of money -- especially in regards to a player that has a history of not being able to stay healthy.

[pitchleague]

Ben Sheets is irreplaceable and it is sad that Melvin and Attanassio are clueless to this fact.

I highly doubt this statement is anywhere close to the truth. They're just going with what they stated earlier in not negotiating during the season. Nothing wrong with that. Are they kicking themselves about it? Probably, but they're sticking to their guns and, hopefully, will go hard at it in November.

 

[davego]

I'm with JohnBriggs on this one. Hope that Ben gets to pitch in the NLCS this year and then feathers his nest. Really, this is his one real big shot @ the FA market. Can't hold that against him. Really, nothing different then what Prince will want to do. If Ben was a part of the A's and we were watching this from afar; it would be pretty clear the Beane would be letting Ben leave too...just trying to decide if he rides him out and gets the picks, or flips him if Oakland would fall out of the race.

[Fear The Chorizo]

A small market team cannot pay a quality starting pitcher 18+ million dollars a year for multiple years. Starting pitching is vital to winning, but teams with modest payrolls have to be able to develop their own pitching instead of having to overpay for it. The Twins understood this, which is why Santana is now a Met - a Met with a 150 million dollar contract who's 7-6 and already has some scouts saying that his stuff's nowhere close to as good as it was a few seasons ago...remember all the booyah network's baseball "experts" who said that winning 30 games was a possibility for Santana in the NL?

 

The initial contract extension Sheets signed four years ago bought Milwaukee 4 more seasons of a pitcher that they normally wouldn't have been able to hold onto. It's unfortunate that he had so many injuries that limited his production during a majority of this contract, but to throw a new contract at him that dwarfs his old one is a move that cripples organizations. I think the only way Milwaukee can justify giving him a bigtime contract is if they fully intend to trade him well before it expires if their team needs rebuilding a few seasons from now.

 

I have no problem with Sheets wanting to cash in after this season - anyone in his situation would want to do the exact same thing. If he ends up with another team, I'll wish him well and be thankful for the fact that I as a Brewer fan watched him pitch on the Brewers for 8 seasons. Don't get me wrong though, in a perfect world I'd want the Brewers to find a way to get Sheets resigned for a few more seasons, if he'd be willing to take fewer years at more $$ per season. That would give him the opportunity to sign another big free agent deal if he stays healthy.

[Tbadder]

I agree that Sheets is gone; that's why we have to trade him for prospects. I realize how unpopular that's going to be. I realize that it's gonna tank the season and the playoffs, but keeping him and hoping to make the playoffs is a risk as well. Letting Coco and Linebrink go for picks is one thing, but letting a bonafide ace go for just two picks is beyond stupid. See what Boston and New Yorks will offer. Maybe it's nothing, but maybe one of them smells a World Series and can nail it down with Sheets. I would even take non-pitching if the prospects were true studs, and then flip Fielder plus for good pitching. But letting him walk for picks is gonna put this franchise three or four years behind in the hunt for a consistent playoff team--hell, it might derail the whole long-term Brewer plan. The Dodgers are loaded with young talent, and they're going to lose a lot of pitching over the off-season--maybe they'll throw 120 million at Benny. I don't know what to do, but just sitting back is going to be a worse case scenario unless Sheets hurts himself again, which is basically what I'm left hoping for--and that's beyond sad. This whole thing really gives me that pukey feeling in throat.

[Oldcity]

I don't see why the club needsto spend money on an "ace". I'd rather go get a pair of "#2-esque" pitchers, and mitigate the risk.

So where will they get these pitchers? Sign two in free agency and spend more than Sheets would cost alone? Trade for them and give up good prospects/players? I don't see how that will be a better alternative to making a big push for Sheets, even on the open market.

I wish people would get past the "small market" thing. The Brewers are 15th in MLB in payroll. They aren't a small market payroll team anymore. While Sheets will demand a significant amount of money, he will only cost money--not players as well.

 

The top option needs to be re-signing him, otherwise they won't be able to replace his production without spending even more or giving up a lot of trade chips. I'd still try to approach him before free agency, if nothing else, just to show you'll be a player for him.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers could afford to resign Sheets if they didn't have to pay so much to redo their bullpen every season and fill it with veteran free agents. If their farm system could start developing relievers that can contribute at a fraction of the cost, then the extra money can be pooled to sign quality starting pitching or keep their arbitration eligible players happy.

 

Yes, they're 15th in payroll right now, but they're nowhere near capable of spending with the 5-6 big boys in MLB (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers). The Brewers don't have bottemless pockets like those teams. Revenue sharing has leveled the playing field a bit, but not to the point where mid-market teams can forget about the price tags on the best free agents in the game.

 

The bad way to look at Milwaukee's payroll is that while they're 15th, their current roster has alot of players about to make significantly more through arbitration (Fielder, Hart, Weeks, among others), while a big portion of their payroll is tied to players who haven't been key contributors this season, to say the least (Gagne, Turnbow, Capuano, Hall, among others.) There are currently very few spots on this roster that carry alot of cost certainty for next season.

 

Alot is made of all the one year contracts expiring that would free up money to resign Sheets and give other players extensions - is there really enough depth in the Brewers' minor leagues to call up 5-6 players/pitchers to replace all of the one year deals at a minimum cost, and still expect to win consistently?

[olsonnet]

So we pack MP with close to 3 million people spending money every game, and yet we still can't keep our own guys? Spend the money, keep the fans coming (and happy). Or watch the team go back to 90 loss seasons drawing under 2 million.

[davego]

...But if Sheets is going to test FA; he is going to test FA be it in Milwaukee or in Boston. The 'Sox or Yankees or anyone is not going to give away the farm for a rental. Granted the 'Crew could strike a good deal, but the Twins got 'less' in the Santana deal then they thought too. Maybe another way to look at this is if the 'large market' teams know Ben is going to be a FA...all they have to do is start the bidding in November, rather then give up a prospect or two...then have to bid on Ben anyway.

[Tbadder]

I think you're exactly right Chorizo. This money that the Brewers have really doesn't exist, and they're 15th rating merely temporary. I'm guessing they're close to be maxxed out and there's a lot of young studs that want their golden hay. We will lose the majority of our good players to free agency and that will be the number one reason the Brewers have money to spend.

[endaround]

The Brewers could afford to resign Sheets if they didn't have to pay so much to redo their bullpen every season and fill it with veteran free agents. If their farm system could start developing relievers that can contribute at a fraction of the cost, then the extra money can be pooled to sign quality starting pitching or keep their arbitration eligible players happy.

This is the first year the Brewers have spent loads of money on the bullpen. Dillard, Stetter, and Pena likely easily could give you what the brewers got from Gagne, Mota, and Turnbow. That's $17 million.

[Oldcity]

They're at 84 mil this year, and Attanasio said he'd expand that to add an impact player this season. Gagne (10), Mota (3.2), Counsell (2.8), Sheets (12.1) and possibly Cameron (5) and Capuano (3.75) come off the books--up to $37 million total. Add on record attendance and the payroll should only go up. Arbitration won't take up nearly all that excess cash.

 

They can afford Sheets. The issue is whether they should.

 

Edit: Forgot about Turnbow. That's another $3.2 mil, which means up to 40 mil to work with without factoring arby raises and a payroll increase.

[naivin]

If he makes it through this year, Sheets will be in the 5 year/$100 million range (Even if he doesn't make it through the year, he may end up in that range.) Given his injury history, there is no way the Brewers are going to play in that sand box. Nor should they. Therefore, I hope he has a monster season and is the prize of teh FA market, because either way, there is little or no chance he will be back in Milwaukee.

[JoeHova]

Sheets is testing the market rather than taking the first offer from the Brewers? I guess he hates us all, just like Prince does.

[JJHardy7]

I wish people would get past the "small market" thing. The Brewers are 15th in MLB in payroll. They aren't a small market payroll team anymore. While Sheets will demand a significant amount of money, he will only cost money--not players as well.

 

There's only so much payroll can go up though. I'd imagine they're maxed out or close to maxed out unless some other crazy revenue comes floating in. Milwaukee will probably always be a small market team. It has nothing to do with the payroll. It has everything to do with the revenue generated. They don't have and probably will never have big marketing or television contracts. Yes money is coming off the books this year, but what about locking up the young guys? If we're going to pay Sheets $20 million a year we're going to lose some of the young guys.

 

I think one problem is the small market fan mentality. We can afford to keep some of our young guys, but not a guy on the level that Sheets is at with his injury history. Every move that happens this way doesn't mean the Brewers screwed up. Who knows what Sheets wanted the beginning of the year? It could've been way over the top already. I'll put a lot more weight into this if Sheets stays healthy or relatively healthy this year and the rest of the career. It's only June and I'm not sold that Big Ben doesn't make at least one trip to the DL. Why pay $20 million a year for that?

[Fear The Chorizo]

let's factor in key arby raises.

 

Fielder, from around 600k to 7-10 million, most likely

Hart, from around 500k to 5-8 million, most likely

Weeks, from 1.2-1.3 million to 3ish million, most likely

Hardy, probably increase by a million simply because he'd be another year closer to free agency.

 

that's anywhere from 16-25 million more to pay for players already under Brewer control.

 

Assume that everyone with a one-year deal gets dumped, and the Brewers have all that other cash to work with - I would think getting Torres to come back would cost them, especially if he continues to be an effective closer - subtract at least 5 million for him. Assuming the Brewers actually resign Sheets, that would still leave a bunch of roster spots/decisions to fill with inexperienced prospects or players on the cheap.

 

Suppan gets a significant pay increase next season, so do Hall and Braun. Financially, the Brewers could afford to resign Sheets if they trust some of their pitching prospects to be major league relievers next season, but only to a certain point. With how the Yankees' young pitchers have largely struggled this season, if they target Sheets there's no telling how high they'd go to get a deal done if Sheets continues to have a great season, especially with Giambi's and Pavano's contracts coming off the books, too. The Brewers may be able to match other teams on a dollars/year basis, but I think it'd be foolish for them to start offering 5+ year deals to Sheets, which is what the true large market teams are able to do with pitchers if they get into a bidding war, because they can more easily afford the injury/cost risk.

 

I think the only way the Brewers can afford to resign Sheets and justify the expense is if they trade for Sabathia, let him walk and recoup the draft picks to help with rebuilding the farm system, and reap the financial reward of reaching the postseason with a 1-2 of Sheets and C.C.

 

There is definitely plenty of time for things to shake out before Melvin and Co. have to make a decision.

[Oldcity]

Torres has an option for next year.

 

Sheets has never suffered a serious long-term injury and has never missed close to a full season.

[jeffy]

I agree that Sheets is gone; that's why we have to trade him for prospects. I realize how unpopular that's going to be. I realize that it's gonna tank the season and the playoffs, but keeping him and hoping to make the playoffs is a risk as well.

 

Yes, lets never try to compete for the playoffs, lets just keep developing prospects forever. It's so much fun to lose every year as long as I can read here about how the major league team would be improved if they just brought up _______ from AAA or AA.

It's up to Mark A to decide what he wants to do, clearly if Cordero was supposedly worth $10 per year for 60ish innings per season, Sheets is worth at least double that, if he stays healthy.