Something to watch: Phenomenal record in 1 run games

[Legacy25GT]

I think it boils down to a couple things:

1. Pitchers duels.... the brewers have more times than not come out in front for pitcher's duels which are often 1-0, 2-1, or 3-2.

2. They had a lot of extra-inning games early on which they won most of partly due to having a deep bench and partly due to having a solid bullpen.

3. The bullpen has come through, expecially since Torres has taken over as closer. He's been able to hold a 1-run lead over and over again.

4. The bullpen has blown large leads like the last two gems pitched by Bush. The bullpen became soft until the opponent got within a run, and then started to take the game seriously. Sort of have a Jekyl and Hide thing going on with the pen.

5. And Yost has managed games well when it gets close. I have to admit that TWR actually brought up some valueable points that Yost has made some smart moves at the end of some games. Also its worth noting that if Yost mismanages a game, it will usually be a loss by several runs... lets say it didn't work out to use the IBB on tuesday, and Corky Miller hits a home run... its now a 2-run game for the Braves and doesn't count as part of the 1-run game record (remember the minnesota game that went to 12 innings).

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So, back to brewers19's original point, if the only credit Yost can be given for the team's record in 1-run games is some sort of nebulous/indirect/quasi-credit based solely on your opinion of Yost, why bring it up in the first place?

Why bring it up? Because it is a valid point. If we had a bad record in those games, most people would be pointing to Yost as the reason. So since we have a good record, I am giving some credit to Yost. As much as you think I'm trying to cause trouble, I'm really not. I'm just trying to make a valid point which was seconded by the previous post.

[steve267268]

You guys always talk about a "regression towards the averages" but in a single season ANYTHING can happen.. and it usually does. Who says we can't put up a great record in one run games the entire year? And don't get me started on the "expected win/loss" stat. Arizona had a horrible expected win/loss last season with a good ACTUAL record prior to making their big run. The rockies won 20 out of 21 at one point, maybe even better than that i don't remember. But i bet the stats didn't predict that.

 

If everything could be accurately predicted by the numbers we would just have the gm's build their teams and then take all of the players stats and throw them into a computer and see who has the best chance to win and then give them a trophy. But we do play the games and so odd things happen... all the time. I predict that what will happen, will happen. Play the games, worry about stats after the season is over.

[crewcrazy]

While it's true that anything can happen, I wouldn't count on the Brewers duplicating what Arizona or Colorado did last year. There are things that stats can't predict, and times that predictions are inaccurate, but that doesn't automatically discredit the stats. If the stats weren't right most of the time, people wouldn't be paying attention to them to begin with.

 

I do agree, though, that the best thing to do is just keep playing the games without much concern about what's going on around the league.

[Time for a Miller]

If you can not bring yourself to give credit to Yost for the 1-run wins, then please refrain from giving him "direct" credit for the losses.

[brewers19]

If you can not bring yourself to give credit to Yost for the 1-run wins, then please refrain from giving him "direct" credit for the losses.

I agree. My overarching point is just that people can often be too willing to dole out credit based on their subjective observations and analyses. The possible explanations for the record in one-run games are limitless; e.g., luck, a team of battlers, buckling down when the game is on the line, etc. To latch onto any one of them over the others with no significant evidence of causal relation is the product of faulty logic.

[RightFieldCoder]

MLB.com Sortable Team Stats: Defensive Stats: Sorted by DP

The Brewers are 9th in the majors and 3rd in the NL in turning the DP. But the Pirates are 4/1, so I don't know if turning DPs are a good stat for doing well. A good team wouldn't let the runners on in the first place.

[TooLiveBrew]

I've always felt like you want to be somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of DPs. Your last sentence sums it up for me. I'd prefer teams be evaluated on % of DPs completed... not sure if that's tracked or not.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

My overarching point is just that people can often be too willing to dole out credit based on their subjective observations and analyses.

That's true, but that's what makes sports so fun to me. I like to be able to give credit based on observations and not have to prove them. As a computer programmer, I have to prove stuff all the time when diagnosing support items, and sports/baseball is a nice break from that.

 

I do concede that I have no proof, though, that this is Yost's doing in 1 run games. If I had to point to the biggest reason for winning these 1 run games, I'd say Solomon Torres. It's nice to have a closer that can slam the door.

[logan82]

I didn't think Bob Melvin was a genius for the D-Backs outperforming their pythagorean record last year, so I wouldn't give Yost credit for the Brewers doing the same this year.

[razzzorsharp]

All this proves is that the Brewers are the cause of my high blood pressure and it's not the unhuman amount of bacon comsuption that I partake in.

[Invader3K]

I didn't think Bob Melvin was a genius for the D-Backs outperforming their pythagorean record last year, so I wouldn't give Yost credit for the Brewers doing the same this year.

Genius? No, I don't think you can call any manager a "genius" these days. He was regarded as doing a great job, and known for his excellent bullpen handling though.

I don't see why some fans have to be so incredibly and stubbornly reluctant to give any sort of real credit to the manager when his team is winning. In some people's minds, it seems that the skipper's sole reason for existence is to be raked over the coals when the team loses, fill out lineup cards, and that's basically it.

 

[brewers19]

That's true, but that's what makes sports so fun to me. I like to be able to give credit based on observations and not have to prove them. I do concede that I have no proof, though, that this is Yost's doing in 1 run games.

That's perfectly fine. Just for the sake of clarity in the future, try to avoid claiming said opinions as fact.

[TooLiveBrew]

He was regarded as doing a great job, and known for his excellent bullpen handling though.

 

With the bullpen he had for 2007, any manager would have received praise for 'bullpen handling'. I've watched a good amount of DBacks games, and Melvin is just like the bulk of other MLB skippers. He's really no more or less gifted at handling the bullpen than Ned.

[1992casey]

Tuesdays, proof is often hard to come by, but evidence isn't necessarily hard to find. Keep in mind that as long as the strength of the argument is proportional to the strength of the evidence, you're generally going to be on pretty solid ground.