Something to watch: Phenomenal record in 1 run games

[gumby]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but Milwaukee has a tremendous record of 17-6 in 1 run games. This is easily the best 1 run game record in the league, and it is tied for the most 1 run wins in the league.

 

It would seem that we have been a little lucky in having such a strong record in 1 run games and we should expect to regress closer to .500 in these close games.

[GB12]

Well how many of them were like tonight's where it never should have been a one run game in the first place. It'd be hard to find that out but I'd imagine a good number of them were. There are two of them just in the past two Bush starts.

[ryne100]

I'll take this over most 3 run leads blown or whatever we had last year

[heresrobin]

Unfortunately, I agree that they've been relatively lucky.

 

Quick question that might have a little bit to do with their luck in 1 run games: Where do the Brewers rank in turning double plays this year? I'm not sure where to find that. They sure seem to have had some good timing with turning their double plays.

[kramnoj]

Taking a quick look at ESPN player stats, it looks like Fielder is in a 4-way tie for 8th with 61 DPs. There are obviously DPs that don't involve Fielder, but it was the quickest way that I knew to look into it.

 

Edit: Just realized that I was looking at 1B only. Disregard.

[lcbj68c]

Here's something interesting I've found that I assume is related to winning 1 run games, given the formula that is listed in small print at the very bottom of the screen.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

 

It's the column titled X W-L, or expected win loss record based upon runs for and runs against.

 

What is astounding is the Braves Expected Record. Wow.

[pitchleague]

I said this back in April when we started off with a bunch of one-run wins that hopefully it can help us out in the playoff race and/or playoffs themselves, having experience and success in close games. Yes, a lot of luck is involved in one-run games but the psychology of knowing that you have won them all many times all year will help you out a bit. Maybe not much, but a bit.

[TooLiveBrew]

It would seem that we have been a little lucky in having such a strong record in 1 run games and we should expect to regress closer to .500 in these close games.

 

Helps explain our actual record v. our pythag. I'll take it. Hopefully we can pile up some wins before the team tires out as could happen during the upcoming stretch of consecutive games.

[dadofandrew]

Mostly luck, with some good bullpen work thrown in for good measure. Two line drive DP's at Prince tonight is just good fortune.

[mls4]

Unfortunately, I agree that they've been relatively lucky.

 

Quick question that might have a little bit to do with their luck in 1 run games: Where do the Brewers rank in turning double plays this year? I'm not sure where to find that. They sure seem to have had some good timing with turning their double plays.

Right now, the Brewers are tied for 8th in all MLB with turning 78 double plays, an average of exactly one per game. The Rangers are 1st with 96 and the D-backs are last with 54. Check out the team fielding stat page at mlb.com.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Do I dare that saying part of the reason we have a good record in 1 run games is having a good manager?

[Invader3K]

Do I dare that saying part of the reason we have a good record in 1 run games is having a good manager?

No, it's all just dumb luck.

 

[nate82]

Quick question that might have a little bit to do with their luck in 1 run games: Where do the Brewers rank in turning double plays this year? I'm not sure where to find that. They sure seem to have had some good timing with turning their double plays.

I don't know about double plays but the Brewers are ranked 9th in Defense efficiency if that has anything to do with that though I'm not sure but it is an interesting statistic.

 

From baseball prospectus

 

Data Updated Through June 24 2008

#	YEAR	TEAM	LG	PA	AB	H	BB	SO	HBP	HR	ROE	DEF_EFFhttp://www.baseballprospectus.com/images/down.gif
1.	2008	BAL	AL	2,936	2,557	656	301	421	34	88	29	0.723
2.	2008	OAK	AL	2,848	2,541	606	248	533	27	54	19	0.718
3.	2008	TBA	AL	2,860	2,562	625	250	526	16	65	21	0.716
4.	2008	ATL	NL	2,980	2,613	644	280	527	24	67	35	0.714
5.	2008	CHA	AL	2,852	2,577	633	212	531	25	64	30	0.713
6.	2008	CHN	NL	2,986	2,643	650	265	570	33	75	32	0.712
7.	2008	PHI	NL	2,965	2,655	681	251	500	23	84	29	0.712
8.	2008	TOR	AL	2,952	2,650	647	233	570	30	66	23	0.712
9.	2008	MIL	NL	2,977	2,638	680	281	508	16	91	34	0.711
10.	2008	BOS	AL	3,058	2,703	662	292	592	25	72	33	0.711
11.	2008	ANA	AL	2,920	2,640	679	226	475	17	73	20	0.710
12.	2008	SLN	NL	3,003	2,697	704	240	444	24	71	20	0.710
13.	2008	DET	AL	2,942	2,568	675	303	409	34	66	26	0.709
14.	2008	HOU	NL	2,946	2,637	714	250	483	22	110	27	0.705
15.	2008	ARI	NL	2,955	2,624	650	227	585	42	66	35	0.704
16.	2008	NYN	NL	2,997	2,616	671	280	535	42	78	36	0.704
17.	2008	SDN	NL	3,048	2,727	701	252	543	14	72	19	0.702
18.	2008	FLO	NL	2,986	2,603	680	303	496	25	73	40	0.702
19.	2008	COL	NL	3,066	2,696	722	287	470	28	76	28	0.700
20.	2008	KCA	AL	2,968	2,667	705	247	510	13	78	27	0.698
21.	2008	NYA	AL	2,913	2,619	691	233	515	23	70	26	0.695
22.	2008	CLE	AL	2,914	2,640	718	218	477	21	82	23	0.694
23.	2008	SFN	NL	3,023	2,621	679	316	583	23	72	26	0.691
24.	2008	WAS	NL	3,115	2,742	750	289	518	21	87	28	0.690
25.	2008	LAN	NL	2,898	2,573	667	252	559	24	61	31	0.690
26.	2008	TEX	AL	3,156	2,759	775	322	439	30	75	39	0.688
27.	2008	CIN	NL	3,060	2,702	731	265	606	24	101	31	0.684
28.	2008	MIN	AL	2,970	2,730	784	188	435	19	86	27	0.684
29.	2008	PIT	NL	3,145	2,746	786	316	442	26	81	36	0.683
30.	2008	SEA	AL	2,996	2,630	719	288	517	28	67	27	0.68

[logan82]

A good bulpen is more important in winning one run games than anything a manager can do. I didn't blame Yost for the 16 loses with 3 run leads and I am not going to give him credit for winning a bunch of 1 run games.

[brewers19]

Do I dare that saying part of the reason we have a good record in 1 run games is having a good manager?

 

Preferably not, as there's no factual basis for that and it would only serve to instigate trouble.

[Janelle Larson]

Here's something interesting I've found that I assume is related to winning 1 run games, given the formula that is listed in small print at the very bottom of the screen.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

 

It's the column titled X W-L, or expected win loss record based upon runs for and runs against.

 

What is astounding is the Braves Expected Record. Wow.

If you want astounding look at Arizona last year. 90-72 record; 79-83 pythag record. That's a lot of close wins and blowout losses.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Preferably not, as there's no factual basis for that and it would only serve to instigate trouble.

I could provide factual basis, like going to Solomon Torres as closer, using the "No Doubles" defense after the 7th inning, Walking batters to face guys that are a better matchup such as last night when Gotay was walked to face the backup catcher. If you want facts, I'll give you them.

[brewers19]

That's anecdotal, rather than factual, evidence.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

That's anecdotal, rather than factual, evidence.

So should the manager get no credit at all then? I gave you things that Yost did that seemed to lead to these victories. I guess it was just blind luck then.

[And That]

I gave you things that Yost did that seemed to lead to these victories.

You just made the opposite point you were trying to make... there is indeed no direct correlation between Yost's strategy and the team's record in 1-run victories.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'm not saying there was a direct correlation. I'm just saying there is some credit that should be given to Yost even though that is the unpopular thing to say. I don't really need to prove it either. I just want my team to win.

[brewers19]

'Seemed' is the key word. There's nothing that definitively says that Ned's decisions are solely responsible for winning those one-run games. I could say that Branyan's presence on the team is the difference maker, and it would no less plausible than pointing to random moves by Yost.

[And That]

I'm not saying there was a direct correlation.

Then you can't really give Yost any direct credit.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Then you can't really give Yost any direct credit.

I never said that I was giving him direct credit. I just give him some credit. That's just my opinion though.

[And That]

So, back to brewers19's original point, if the only credit Yost can be given for the team's record in 1-run games is some sort of nebulous/indirect/quasi-credit based solely on your opinion of Yost, why bring it up in the first place? I'm pretty sure that that by this point 99% of the board knows what your opinions on Yost are. So there is no need to keep dovetailing them into discussions.