Prince nearing a .900 OPS, is he still having a down year?

[obobo55]

'08--

.287

.375

.520

.895

'07--

.288

.395

.618

1.013

His average is almost identical. Down a bit in OBP and a lot in SLG. So is this a down year or was last year an outlier for his career. Is he a guy you still expect to hit 50+ HRs or is a more reasonable projection have him in the mid-thirties to low forties as time goes on. Both are very valuable, but one puts him into MVP team-carrier category while the other has him as an integral part of a good offense. Just for comparison, here is his stats from '06:

 

'06--

.271

.347

.483

.831

[jazzytrav]

I don't think you can ever expect 50+ homers from a guy. If he hits mid-30s and low-40s in homers while he's here, I'm okay with that. And every once in awhile, he might surprise us and hit 50+. Same with Braun.

[trwi7]

Before last nights game his OPS was over .900. Wait, it's under now? OMG he suckz trade teh bumz!

[And That]

Only nine players in the history of the game have career OPSs of 1.000 or greater (though Manny Ramirez is close to being a tenth), so expecting him to do that very often is setting expectations too high. Is he having a worse year this year? Sure... but I'll take a 900 OPS from any player on the diamond any year.

 

For giggles, Prince's career OPS+ of 132 would be tied for 127th best of all time. He has an OPS+ of 133 this year.

[crewcrazy]

I think it's unfair to expect anyone to hit 50 home runs in a season -- it's definitely possible that last year was the best year that he'll ever have. It's probably more fair to expect him to be in the 30-40 HR area every year, with maybe a few years of 45-50 sprinkled in if everything goes right (like last season)...kind of like a David Ortiz-level of production. If he can get his OBP to last year's level while slugging somewhere between this year's rate to date and last year's, I still think he could be an MVP candidate even if he never touches 50 HR again (since that award seems to rest solely RBI production in the eyes of the sportswriters).

[dadofandrew]

He's hit several fly balls this year to the track...last year, those were HR's. I'd say he might well be a millimeter off on a few balls.

[TooLiveBrew]

If only Prince would eat some meat... maybe he'd start hitting HR again! OMG!

 

 

Sorry, that was not directed at obobo55. It's just relaxing to me to see Prince hitting like all... well, most of us knew he would. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Bucky Rules]

It's amazing what a great week can do for a guys numbers.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's certainly been more than just a hot week. Prince has been knocking the stuffing out of the ball for roughly a month now.

 

.315/.392/.696/1.090 over his last 28 days (thank you, baseball-reference)

[joepepsi]

He's having a better year than Carlos Lee and this is a down year? I'll take it. He's doing everything well, just not hitting the home runs like he did last year....at least he didn't in the Spring. There's signs he back on last year's pace though, as TooLiveBrew points out. As it is, he's having a nearly identical season to Berkman's 2007. If that means next year he'll have a Berkman2008, I'll take it!

 

Bottom line is, he's a patient homer hittin' slugger. This year is well within his range of expectations. Some years things just work out better than others.

[Oldcity]

Yep. I said it in the Braun thread, but I think Prince's numbers are more deserving of an all-star spot than Braun. Prince has really come on lately.

[fondybrewfan]

If he would have added another 5 pound weight to his pregame bench press routine on 6/14 we would be 43-33 right now. I am fine with the way Prince is playing however it does seem like he is swinging at a lot more garbage this year as compared to last. If you can throw him a breaking ball down in the zone he basically has no chance. He seems to swing at it well more than 50% of the time. I am also a little frustrated with his RISP performance. But all things considered he has been playing very well

[trwi7]

Bottom line is, he's a patient homer hittin' slugger. This year is well within his range of expectations. Some years things just work out better than others.

 

I've also heard he has a higher amount of grit than the normal slugger.

[dlk9s]

it does seem like he is swinging at a lot more garbage this year as compared to last. If you can throw him a breaking ball down in the zone he basically has no chance. He seems to swing at it well more than 50% of the time. I am also a little frustrated with his RISP performance. But all things considered he has been playing very well

He is actually swinging at fewer balls outside the strike zone than in any year of his career. According to FanGraphs.com, he has swung at 27.76% of pitches outside the zone (previous seasons were 33.98, 27.99, and 28.08). The MLB average in 2007 (I'm having trouble pulling up the 2008 stats) was 25.0%, so he's a bit higher than average, but not enormously so. Considering he's a guy who is looking to kill the ball and that this year, only 46.16% of pitches thrown to him are in the strike zone (MLB average last year was 50.30%), I can understand him swinging at a few more balls.

 

He misses more outside the zone than the 2007 MLB average (53.04% vs. 60.8%), but he also swings more at strikes than the average (71.56% vs. 66.6%). He makes contact with pitches in the zone about on par with the league average.

 

 

Fielder's numbers are a mixed bag this season with RISP. The NL batting average (using NL rather than MLB because I have those numbers) with RISP is .257. Prince's is .246. But his OBP is much better (.398 vs. .352), as is his SLG (.492 vs. .398). Thus, he destroys the NL average for OPS with RISP (.890 vs. .750).

 

His BABIP with RISP is really low (.220).

 

 

 

 

[Bucky Rules]

It's certainly been more than just a hot week. Prince has been knocking the stuffing out of the ball for roughly a month now.

 

.315/.392/.696/1.090 over his last 28 days (thank you, baseball-reference)

 

I agree he's been warming up for a while now, but this past week is what sent things soaring into the stratosphere. His week of .364/.440/1.091 raised his YTD OPS by 55 points. Not easy to do at the end of June. I guess 5 HRs will do that though.

 

But you're right. Even if you remove the obnoxious numbers he put up in the BAL/TOR series, he has still put up a very good June of .308/.400./.558 --- if my math is right (not including HBPs which I was too lazy to look up).

[TooLiveBrew]

Even if you remove the obnoxious numbers he put up in the BAL/TOR series

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif I like that you call them "obnoxious" -- that's great.

 

I also want to say that when I first read your posting of his line from the last week (.364/.440/1.091), I initially read the "1.091" as his OPS, since I was under the impression that the only baseball player allowed to SLG that much is Branyan.

[Bucky Rules]

when I first read your posting of his line from the last week (.364/.440/1.091), I initially read the "1.091" as his OPS

I had to do a double take on that myself - it's just slugging, though. I'm pretty sure of it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[letsgored]

Yep. I said it in the Braun thread, but I think Prince's numbers are more deserving of an all-star spot than Braun. Prince has really come on lately.

 

Really? I think there is more competition at 1B for all star honors for Prince than there is for Braun in the OF. You could say a lot of guys deserve a spot. Berkman is a lock at 1B. Gonzalez, Lee, Pujols, Fielder are all kind of battling it out for the other spots. Howard has big RBI and HR numbers, but his OPS isn't great. Braun, meanwhile, is first in the NL (among OF's) is total bases, sixth in OPS, and second in RBI. I think Braun is a mortal lock as a reserve if he doesn't get voted in, he's very deserving. I think Prince may be deserving as well, but not moreso than Braun.

[owbc]

I was also looking to argue Prince into the ASG, but I couldn't do it. Prince is 3rd in OPS and 5th in slugging. Looking at stats that regular people use, he's tied for 5th in HR, 8th in batting average, and the real killer--tied for 7th in RBI.

 

Berkman, Pujols, and Gonzalez all deserve it more, especially considering Gonzalez plays at Petco.

 

But to answer the original question, he's having a fine year unless you expect him to make a run at MVP every year--and he still could do that if he gets hot.

[markedman5]

Just out of curosity.....what is the record for most errors by a first baseman in one season?

[crewcrazy]

I was also looking to argue Prince into the ASG, but I couldn't do it. Prince is 3rd in OPS and 5th in slugging. Looking at stats that regular people use, he's tied for 5th in HR, 8th in batting average, and the real killer--tied for 7th in RBI.

 

Berkman, Pujols, and Gonzalez all deserve it more, especially considering Gonzalez plays at Petco.

 

But to answer the original question, he's having a fine year unless you expect him to make a run at MVP every year--and he still could do that if he gets hot.

With the All-Star Game including the DH this year, though, there's a chance that the NL might take 4 first basemen. Maybe Prince could find his way onto the "Last Vote" ballot if he gets left off and he keeps hitting like this, though.

 

[endaround]

The point was that Pujols is unlikely to go due to injury

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd be surprised if Hurdle didn't pick Prince for his bench anyway.

[Big Cat Dad]

At this point in time I don't really LIKE Prince......as a fan. I know he's a very good player, but there's just something about him that I don't like.

 

When he was 18, playing for the Ogden Raptors I was able to get on the field and get visit with him and he signed my Sports Illustrated (the one with him and his dad.

 

He went from one of my favorite to least favorite really quickly....can't explain it. I really hope they trade him and soon. I don't really know what this has to do with the thread....but I'm putting it in here anyway.

[BrewCrewForever]

Talk about a bad 10 game road trip 2-36. (.055 AVG).