To skip or not to skip

[logan82]

Manager Ned Yost has managed his starting rotation differently this season, electing to stick with the order rather than using certain pitchers every fifth day, no matter if it means skipping someone's turn.

Personally I would prefer to just pitch our best 3 guys whenever their 5 days is up and skip the bottom 2 guys whenever they come up.(although beyond Sheets and Suppan I don't know where the rest really fit in) I can see some benefit to being able to extend a starter now and then whenever you know they have an extra day rest. If you can get a couple outs here and there from your starters those are outs you are not relying on getting from your worst relievers. Also, hopefully, allowing your best relievers more rest.

 

The biggest question is how does a Sheets start compare to a McClung start? Does being able to extend Sheets now and then really add more than just starting him over McClung? If all our starters were equal or close to equal, I think more rest is a good idea. However, I don't think this is the case when comparing Sheets to McClung. I think it is safe to believe that Sheets will generally go deeper than McClung with a good chance of a complete game. I also think that there is a really good chance that there is between 2-3 runs difference in expected ERA.

I would guess it mostly boils down to whether you think Sheets is in danger of wearing down and getting injured. I believe that we have 3 guys in our rotation who can go 200+ innings every year(Sheets, Suppan, Bush) without a big drop in performance.

Edit: Prettified. Added link. Sorry Brian, I still read fox sports.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'd rather just stick with the order. I like the idea that when we get to September everyone should be relatively fresh compared to the rest of the league.

[utdfan]

In my opinion, if it comes down to extending Sheets an extra 10 pitches vs. giving him an extra start, I would definitely want the extra start. The chances of Villanueva or Shouse performing better over those 10 pitches is much greater than Dave Bush pitching well over 6+ innings. And for anyone who has ever pitched, how much of a difference does that extra day of rest make?

[davego]

Guess I see this a bit different then Utdfan. I'd rather get 10-20 more pitches out of the starters and limit the guys out of the pen as much as possible. From the years we have watched Ned, we know the pen tends to get overworked. If this limits the pitches in the pen; seems like a good thing.

 

 

Additionally, when I first heard this, I thought that Ned was being dumb if it meant that we got less starts out of Sheets and Soup...now after pondering this; maybe the bit of extra rest has help them thus far, while the regular work on the back end has assisted Seth too? Not sure how to measure that.

[obobo55]

I guess the issue for me would be whether we are getting those extra 10 pitches you are talking about as pitches 100-110 or 110-120 (or more). I believe that is where real injury danger lies for starters. If we are just pushing the starter to go into the 7th or 8th under 100 it is fine, but how often does the pitcher get pulled for a hitter anyways at that point regardless of pitch count? The other thing is how effective is McClung or Bush going to be going through the order the third time with that high pitch count? Would we be better off with a fresh reliever?

 

I tend to believe you go with your horses. Get as many starts out of them as you can because you never know when they may go down with an injury. Look at Yo, he went down on an injury that had nothing to do with throwing too many pitches...

[And That]

Another issue to consider for skipping starts in Manny Parra's inning cap this year. He's already about halfway to what I would guess his inning limit would be (around 160 IP) and we're not yet halfway through the year, not to even speak of the playoffs. If he keeps pitching well, he'll have to be pulled from the rotation at some point if they don't start skipping him because he'll run out of innings. I don't want to see any more than about 12 regular season starts from him the rest of the way unless we fall way out of playoff contention.

 

As for the other pitchers, I tend to think it is tied to the bullpen. Do we have a good enough bullpen to hold onto a lead given a little extra workload every night on average? I'd like to think so but our pen hasn't yet performed to expectations. Maybe if they fully regroup once Gagne gets back and Riske gets untracked, Ned will be more inclined to not skip starts.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I wonder about skipping Parra on his next start. If Sheets goes every fifth start, he will be the first one up after the all-star game. If we skip a start by Parra (I chose him since they may want to limit his innings), we could get one extra start out of Benny before the break. Give him an extra day or two after the break (depending on what he does in the all-star game).

 

They've done a much better job of managing the starters and pen this year. I don't feel like anyone is getting gassed at this point. Adding guys like Riske & Torres who have historical rubber arms really helped. Torres is the only guy I'm worried about at this point.

[davego]

Ned does tend to ride his closer.

 

Skipping Manny 2 or 3 times does make some sense. True that Yo going down had nothing to do with throwing, but that happens in sports. When I first saw this story I thought Ned, et al were dumb to not throw Benny as much as possilbe, but after pondering it, I have come around to what they are doing here. I suppose this will be a decision we review based upon the outcome.

[jeffy]

I would prefer to just pitch our best 3 guys whenever their 5 days is up and skip the bottom 2 guys whenever they come up.

 

The biggest question is how does a Sheets start compare to a McClung start?

 

I believe that we have 3 guys in our rotation who can go 200+ innings every year(Sheets, Suppan, Bush) without a big drop in performance.

I think Sheets is in a class by himself, I really don't see that much difference with any of the other four. Any skipping should have maximizing Sheets' starts as the goal. McClung seems to have become a reliable starter. I am guessing that Yost set up the order so that Sheets and McClung break up the guys who do not throw as hard, so he will likely want to maintain that.

 

If Parra needs to have his innings limited that may be a reason to skip him a few times. Skipping someone on Thurs will could give Sheets a start right before the all-star game, where he will likely appear, then he could go again on July 18...assuming pitching, maybe an inning, at the all-star game would not create a problem.