Buster Olney's Team to watch for the 2nd half: Your Milwaukee Brewers

[Brewer Fever]

I hate when we get noticed by ESPN. Without fail it's always followed by a prolonged stretch of losing. I now know that 40-34 and being the current favorites to trade for Sabathia will be our highwater point of the season. Thanks ESPN.

 

Let it not be said that we weren't warned.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

Isn't Craig Counsell gone after this year? Isn't he making near $3 million?

Brewers have a $3.4 mil team option on Craig for next season if they wish to keep him.

 

[GB12]

Seriously though I really can't think of another team that has drafted as poorly as the Cubs have.

And yet if you ask a Cubs fan they'd say they have a top notch farm system.

No we don't. Stop with this nonsense, right now. Most legit Cubs fans that follow the farm system, are VERY critical of the system, and quite frankly, we think it's an average system of prospects at best. So, IDK where you get this idea, but it's not the truth.

I get this idea straight from Cubs fans themselves. Both ones I know in person and posters from other message boards. In fact the reason I said that is because it came up in a conversation on Thursday, here are some direct quotes

 

"and if the Cubs don't have the pieces to get A.J. Burnett, then no team in the majors has pieces to get A.J. Burnett"

 

" the Cubs are believed to have a top 5ish farm system, with many good young players"

 

" yes, but the fact remains that Pie is still a top 10-15 prospect"

[silversurferr]

Sabathia would be the perfect rental because he probably is the best starter who will be available, and his value will be slightly diminished by his free agent value and lack of signability. Question is, who would we give up. I doubt we would trade Gamel or Laporta. That leaves Escobar, Jeffress, Suppan and Hall. I do not want to give up on Jeffress, and I do not think the remaining three are enough for the Indians. Some team will (foolishly) offer more.

[splitterpfj]

That leaves Escobar, Jeffress, Suppan and Hall.

 

It also leaves Salome, Brantley, Gillespie, Villanueva, Nelson, and every pitcher currently in A-ball.

 

I don't think Suppan will be discussed in possible trades right now, and I would have to think Hall's value is about as low as its ever been - not to say teams wouldn't want him - but he's certainly not going to be a centerpiece right now. If I'm Cleveland, I'm on LaPorta or Gamel, and then go from there.

 

I don't think the Brewers would give them either guy, because of Sabathia's contract status.

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm content with what we have. If we can get a second tier starter without giving up Gamel or LaPorta that is fine. But I think our starting pitching will be okay including Bush.

[ELCABALLO45]

I would LOVE to get Sabathia. Cy Young winner from last year, he would go from the AL to the NL which should help, and he is a lefty.

[Sheets4theHOF]

The fact that this team hasn't met fan expectations in the past 20+ years better not have any effect on current management. The only thing they can change is the present and beyond. The past is gone. Turn the page. {/Bob Segar}

 

Would you rather have one flame-out run at the playoffs than a constant year-in-year-out run for the World Series? Let's look at the big picture here.

 

Big picture i see a team that's 75-85 wins every year. I don't know the minor league system as well as a lot of posters on this board, but as far as i can tell there aren't a lot of really good pitching prospects poised to make the leap. With a good chance of Sheets pitching somewhere else next year, this maybe the last good shot the brewers have at a championship.

 

Sheets, CC, Suppan, Parra is a rotation that can beat any team in a 7 game series. If Yo makes its it back for the playoffs, then the out look is even better.

 

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

It the Brewers were to make a deal for Sabathia, it seems it would just be a rental. They would sign Sheets before they would do Sabathia.

 

If they did make the deal, LaPorta would be untouchable...I see no way they move him. It would probably look like the Linebrink deal, with a top notch guy like Gamel in place of Inman. We would get some comp picks back. It wouldn't just get us a better chance of making the playoffs, it would give us a better chance of making a run. Sheets & Sabathia could be a heckuva 1-2 punch in a 7 game series. It's not an easy decision, but chances like this don't come around every year.

[dadofandrew]

I find it ironic that Olney picks the team with the best record in the past month as his "surprise team".

 

Weak. Where was he a month ago? He's just picking who has done the best that few have noticed.

[ILuvDaBush]

With Yo/Braun/Fielder/Hart/Weeks/Hardy/LaPorta/Gamel under control for, at minimum, a couple of years, chances should be prevalent in the near future. A top-of-the-line pitcher intermingled with sluggling studs. That's a playoff team.

[lukevan]

So Richard Justice says this team is going nowhere and a week or two later Buster Olney says to watch for this team to make a run in the second half. I guess clubhouse chemistry has gotten better in the last two weeks.

[UndraftedFA]

yeah, I don't understand how this team could be considered a surprise. Maybe a surprise to get past the Cubs after their outstanding start, but not a surprise to be doing well. Even the few days we spent in last place, the team was never in bad shape. The NL central is pretty good this year. We are 3rd place in the central, but we also have the 3rd best winning percentage in the NL. Not bad for a team for a team where so many of its fans think the manager should be fired.

[crewcrazy]

Sabathia's definitely an interesting idea, but even with big contracts coming off the books next year, I don't think the Brewers will have enough to sign him. You have to remember that guys like Prince are going to get huge raises in arbitration (Prince could be making anywhere between $7 and $10 million next year, pending the arby case/deal to avoid arby), so that perceived $30 million or so coming off the books could dry up quickly.

 

The Sabathia idea might be a thing to reconsider after the All-Star break...if the Brewers get within a few games of the Cubs for the division lead or jump into the wildcard lead with a week or two to go before the deadline, maybe I'd feel better about it. Right now, it's far from a guarantee that the Brewers will even catch the Cards, let alone the Cubs.

[TheCrew07]

If they did make the deal, LaPorta would be untouchable...I see no way they move him. It would probably look like the Linebrink deal, with a top notch guy like Gamel in place of Inman. We would get some comp picks back. It wouldn't just get us a better chance of making the playoffs, it would give us a better chance of making a run. Sheets & Sabathia could be a heckuva 1-2 punch in a 7 game series. It's not an easy decision, but chances like this don't come around every year.

I'm curious why is LaPorta untouchable, a RH power hitter, but Gamel, a LH power hitter is tradable? Long term roster management this would make no sense, Gamel is the only LH power in the entire system... Unless you're pulling some major package to get both Sabathia and Sizemore, the Brewers need more LH bats... I'm not picking on SoCal, this notion of trading Gamel is repeatedly dropped into threads, but I don't see how the Crew can deal the only LH power bat in the system, and I don't even want to think what it would take for both Sizemore and Sabathia. I like Sizemore quite a bit, but to me he's a LH Corey Hart, and while both will hit 20-30 HR per year, I wouldn't qualify either as a power hitter, more a power threat. I'd definately take both if I could have them in a vaccuum, in fact on OOTP 8 I've traded Sheets/Hall for Sabathia/Sizemore every time I've started a new game, but that's a video game...

 

I've pointed this out before, but I'll post it again, what makes people so sure that Sheets will be healthy? Any pitcher we pickup essentially replaces Yo for this year, if Sheets goes down later this season, we're essentially exactly where we are now, only now we're down prospects for nothing tangible in the W/L column. Yes you can trade for a rental and get draft picks but all that scenario does is continually push your best prospects farther away from MLB, assuming of course that you can hit on the prospect again, which is far from a "given". I'm not sold on the notion that 1 player puts this team over the top, so I'm more inclined to ride out this season and see what could be done in the off season. A Fielder trade, while it would hurt, still makes more sense to me value wise, and could go a long ways towards plugging the few holes that are left. In my opinion Prince isn't someone the Brewers can build around, he's too risky long term... Boras, weight, defensive issues... There's no doubt he's a premium offensive player, but that doesn't mean the Brewers should try to build the franchise around him, I'd rather they build around Braun and Hart, but I'll guess we'll just have to see how this all plays out.

[logan82]

TheCrew07 wrote:

I've pointed this out before, but I'll post it again, what makes people so sure that Sheets will be healthy? Any pitcher we pickup essentially replaces Yo for this year, if Sheets goes down later this season, we're essentially exactly where we are now, only now we're down prospects for nothing tangible in the W/L column. Yes you can trade for a rental and get draft picks but all that scenario does is continually push your best prospects farther away from MLB, assuming of course that you can hit on the prospect again, which is far from a "given". I'm not sold on the notion that 1 player puts this team over the top, so I'm more inclined to ride out this season and see what could be done in the off season. A Fielder trade, while it would hurt, still makes more sense to me value wise, and could go a long ways towards plugging the few holes that are left. In my opinion Prince isn't someone the Brewers can build around, he's too risky long term... Boras, weight, defensive issues... There's no doubt he's a premium offensive player, but that doesn't mean the Brewers should try to build the franchise around him, I'd rather they build around Braun and Hart, but I'll guess we'll just have to see how this all plays out.

So we shouldn't do a trade because we are afraid that Sheets might get injured?

 

I do think that one more quality starting pitcher may get us 2-3 more wins and that would definitely improve our chances of making the playoffs. I think we can still make the playoffs with our roster as it is right now.

 

I do agree that we should trade LaPorta before Gamel. Gamel can play all of the positions that LaPorta can plus 3B, which in my opinion makes him much more valuable.

[JoeHova]

I think some people are viewing LaPorta as more valuable than Gamel because Gamel is doing what he's doing thanks in large part to a (probably) unsustainably high batting average, while LaPorta is doing it with a BA in the normal range, possibly suggesting he can translate it to the majors with more certainty.

 

However, Gamel is younger, has more defensive value (again, probably), and is left-handed (not that that should be a huge concern depending how much better you think LaPorta may be. I mean, if they are equal hitters, we would prefer the lefty, but if LaPorta is a guy whose OPS will be .50-.100 points higher, I prefer LaPorta, despite him being another righty).

 

I prefer LaPorta (slightly), but I wouldn't trade either one unless the team got someone they could control for a few years, but we'll see what Doug does, I guess.

 

OTOH, I wouldn't trade any of the top 6-7 prospects unless the team got back guys who would be around for a few years. I know extra draft picks are nice, but the draft is such a crap shoot that a bird in the hand is definitely worth two in the bush, imo. Even Jack Zduriencik has blown numerous 1st round picks and only 3 of his 2nd or 3rd round picks have even played in the majors and one of those is Gwynn Jr.

[PeaveyFury]

Even Jack Zduriencik has blown numerous 1st round picks and only 3 of his 2nd or 3rd round picks have even played in the majors and one of those is Gwynn Jr.

 

Actually, in every one of his drafts since his first, either his 1st or 2nd round pick has come up as a decent big leaguer, and in 2003 he had both of them make the majors. I'd think that getting two more 1st/2nd rounders strongly suggests that one of the two picks will result in another big leaguer out of Jack.

[JJHardy7]

With Yo/Braun/Fielder/Hart/Weeks/Hardy/LaPorta/Gamel under control for, at minimum, a couple of years, chances should be prevalent in the near future. A top-of-the-line pitcher intermingled with sluggling studs. That's a playoff team.

 

Agree, but all these guys under control in the next few years are going to be awfully expensive come arby time. I know the owner has said we're not a small market team, but there comes a point and time where a decision will need to be made regarding paying Fielder $8 - $12 million in arby vs. having Gamel or LaPorta at the minimum or close to it. Just because we have the money to spend doesn't mean that it has to be spent in terms of cost vs. benefit.

[nikegolf6]

Just look what happened this year when you let a closer get away.

 

You just find a new closer the next year?

 

 

[TheCrew07]

So we shouldn't do a trade because we are afraid that Sheets might get injured?

I didn't say that, but it my opinion assuming Sheets will stay healthy is a big risk, and if I were forced to put on money on it, I'd bet against him. Sheet's health, or lack there of, should definately factor into the discussion. If Sheets was down with injury and Yo was the healthy, I'd be much more inclined to make a move, I would have liked Yo's chances of staying healthy all year.

 

My point is that this team is not 1 player away, they are more like 3 players away. If Hall and Weeks will start to play good baseball, Hardy will continue to raise his average and hit for power, then we're maybe a pitcher away. We're talking about 2, maybe 3 wins max out of pitcher, the impact while tangible is small, even for a starting pitcher. I'm not into trading a couple of wins for 6 or 7 years of either Gamel or LaPorta. I understand that many people around here just want to make the playoffs, but I want a sustained high level of success for many years, not just a short run before this current core hits the backend of arbitration. In other words, I'm not into mortgaging the future for a 2 year window that's already mostly passed us bye. Some of the young players didn't reach the level of play they needed to, and the system didn't develope enough pitching. However, there is plenty of help on the way in AA and A+ so I'm willing to be patient and accept winning baseball for the time being because I think the truly special teams of this current Brewer era are 2-3 years away. I thought the current core would hit enough to get into the playoffs without a real good rotation, and they still might, but looking ahead I see the potential for some truly dominant teams.

[sargennm]

I doubt the Brewers would give up LaPorta or Gamel for C.C. The Indians have said they will not allow the team that trades for him to negotiate a contract extension before the trade. If that's the case, in my opinion, the best the Indians can expect is a bunch of second tier prospects, Gwynn, Pena, Hernan, maybe. In the end, I think the Indians will be underwhelmed and satisfied to keep the comp draft picks they get when he walks at the end of the year.

[ILuvDaBush]

There is still a lot of time left before the trade deadline, and if a lot of other teams still view themselves as contenders and CC is the only pitcher available, they will get quite the haul. Even if there are multiple second-tier options available, I still believe the Indians will get a good package. But I wouldn't be on board for trading a top 10 hitting prospect, who is also very close to the majors, for a few month rental. Even with the draft picks, there is so much more volatility in draft picks, from signing them, to nurturing them to where our big bats are now. Then again, if and when CC were to meet Zambrano in a matchup, it would have to be in the top five for highest combined weight between two opposing starting pitchers. And honestly, the only one-for-one trade involving Prince for a SP would be the Prince for the King (Felix, that is).

[kmcasper23]

Why should we give up LaPorta or Gamel to get CC? Honestly what did the Mets give up to get Johan? I would rather have Johan than CC. Plus since the teams that would want CC have no high rated prospects other than the Yankees, why should we offer our highest rated when our 2nd rate prospects are better than what anyone else can give up?

 

As for being the team to watch in the 2nd half, definitely. I fully expect the Crew to pass the Cards before the break and then at minimum be the favorite for the wild card. However, the Crew has played 36 games against teams above .500 and have only 27 remaining games against those types of teams. The Cubs have only played 18 games against teams above .500 and have 42 games remaining against teams of that caliber. The schedules even out in the 2nd half so I would not be shocked if the Crew can pass the Cubs. Plus this is the Cubs we are talking about. When is the last time they have won the division two years in a row? When they win the division they always choke the following year.

[JoeHova]

Even Jack Zduriencik has blown numerous 1st round picks and only 3 of his 2nd or 3rd round picks have even played in the majors and one of those is Gwynn Jr.

 

Actually, in every one of his drafts since his first, either his 1st or 2nd round pick has come up as a decent big leaguer, and in 2003 he had both of them make the majors. I'd think that getting two more 1st/2nd rounders strongly suggests that one of the two picks will result in another big leaguer out of Jack.

 

 

A 1 out of 2 success rate isn't that impressive in this context because the team would be giving up 2 or more prospects that already are on the verge of making the majors. Let's look at his successes. If you want to count getting an average player with the #2 overall pick as some big coup, fine. But let's look at the pick # of the guys he's taken in the first 3 rounds and have panned out:

 

Weeks (2)

Braun(5)

Fielder(7)

Gallardo (46)

Hardy (56)

 

That is from 6 years of drafts (I say we only look up until 2005, because the 2006 guys are still too young). Braun and Fielder panned out very well but were both top 7 picks. Hardy and Weeks are about average. Gallardo was probably his best pick of the first 3 rounds to date, considering draft position.

 

3 above average major leaguers out of 15 or so picks (the Brewers lost a few picks due to compensation, not sure the exact number) is not that great (I mean, it is in context, but not by the numbers). If we think Gamel or LaPorta will be above-average guys, we are then trading them for 3 months of Sabathia and a relatively slim chance of replacing them with a comparable prospect. It's not a negligible chance, but I feel it's slimmer than most here seem to think.

 

of course, flags fly forever, etc., etc. but I thought the Brewers were trying to build a sustainable franchise.