2007 NL Offense Plus Defense Rating

[kramnoj]

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/2007_nl_opd_offense_plus_defense/ is a link to a rating from Chris Dial, a guy who has his own ratings system for players. I don't know enough about the system, but Dial is an intelligent guy who has a lot of passion for the game and studies it very closely.

 

Highlighting the Brewers:

 

Fielder weighs in at 30.6 Runs Above Average, or about 3 Wins above average. That put him at 10th in the NL last year.

 

Hart is better than I thought he would be with 23.4, 16th in the NL.

 

Braun is at 15.6. Without his negative defensive value of 14.9, he has an offensive value of 30.5, and this is a total value #, not prorated.

 

Weeks had a value of .5, so he was essentially an average player last year.

 

Dillon was exactly zero, so he was absolutely average.

 

Hardy was rated with bad defense, he had a total rating of -12.

 

I won't list all the players, I'd recommend checking it out if you find the ratings interesting. For me the biggest surprises were how well Hart was rated and how poorly Hardy fared.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for linking that -- interesting study. WOW was Rickie rated out poorly at 2B! (-16.6)

 

And I agree that J.J.'s overall & defensive ratings are shocking. I just can't put Hardy that low in terms of defense. Any system that has Hardy's D at a -11.7 & Theriot's at a 7.6 needs to be taken with a grain of salt. And no, that's not just me being biased. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Heck, Adam Everett only got a 6.3! So if Theriot's D > Everett's D, I want to see some more done to refine the study in terms of defense.

[Fatter than Joey]

Weeks had a value of .5, so he was essentially an average player last year.

 

Right on. This is what I have always concluded with Weeks. His offense NEEDS to be well above average to be an overall average 2b.

 

The player who I think will take a big hit will be Prince in 2008. Of course his numbers are not as good, and I think his D has gotten much worse.

 

Moving Braun to LF should get him above 30, where he should be as an elite offensive player.

[kramnoj]

2008 mid-season report is out: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/national_league_leaders_at_the_all_star_break_offense_plus_defense/

 

The total is runs against average for the position

 

Brewers:

Prince -3.6

Weeks -3.6

Hall -9.4

Hardy 4.5

Kendall 9.4

Braun 6.9

Cameron 5.4

Hart 4.4

[igor67]

Looking at those defensive numbers I still think they really mess up Hardy because of his positioning and under rate him.

[kramnoj]

Looking at those defensive numbers I still think they really mess up Hardy because of his positioning and under rate him.

 

This is a common comment. If that is the case, would the 3B then be overrated because they are getting credit for plays that Hardy would be making if he were positioned differently? It certainly is true that the Brewers shift more than other teams, but presumably the Brewers are doing so to gain an advantage. If the Brewers are shifting Hardy out of position and he is making fewer plays, that would be good information to have and the Brewers should stop shifting him.

[cwolf2012]

I don't trust a metric that rates Lance Berkman as the 9th best 1st baseman in the league this season (even with defense included). Absurd.

 

EDIT: Whoops, it's 2007. I'm still pretty surprised by that. Did he really not have that good of a season last year?

[logan82]

Braun being higher than Hart and Cameron doesn't make sense.

[TooLiveBrew]

Might be that Braun has done significantly better in the field relative to other LF?

[cwolf2012]

Last year's Braun vs. last year's Cameron or Hart definitely is an edge to Braun. His offensive value was through the roof.

 

But really, this stat is essentially the same as VoRP, except worse, in my opinion.

[logan82]

Might be that Braun has done significantly better in the field relative to other LF?

Maybe defensively, but not offensively.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes -- "in the field" http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[kramnoj]

Last year's Braun vs. last year's Cameron or Hart definitely is an edge to Braun. His offensive value was through the roof.

 

But really, this stat is essentially the same as VoRP, except worse, in my opinion.

 

Do you mean this is like WARP? I see that you already know this includes defense, which VoRP doesn't. IMO this is superior to WARP for two reasons. WARP is against replacement player, which is a somewhat nebulous level. WARP's defense isn't based on play by play data, and this is based on ZR, which is PbP.

[kramnoj]

http://www.baseballthinkf...plus_defense_opd_results/ is the updated season total for this stat. The important thing to remember about this stat is that it is tied to comparing against position players in the same league. So when Pujols has an amazing season, it makes all other NL 1Bs look poorer by comparison. I think it can lead to skewed results, but I like to look at a stat that combines offensive value with play-by-play defensive value.