The CC Sabathia thread: Latest - CC a Brewer! (part 1)

[Weirdos19]

My other reason for trading Laporta is that the outfield defense would be bad with Braun, Hart and Matt in the same outfield. I'm getting spoiled having Cameron this season. This seasons outfield defense has been great overall.

[splitterpfj]

The other thing Gammons said was that he had spent the last two weekends in Chicago, and that "Both Chicago teams are very worried about the Brewers." He went on to praise the Huntsville club, repeated that one team is telling him that's the "Best prospect team our scout has ever seen", and then said that the Brewers had told him only one of those top five players would go.

 

On Sabathia, he said it appears as though the Cubs don't have enough to get him, then he mentioned the Phillies, but did not elaborate.

 

Personally, after watching Mota throw batting practice of late, I'd rather get a starter and an 8th inning guy than two starters.

 

Gammons didn't specifically say Weeks or Hardy would go for Sabathia, although pitching was all he talked about for the Brewers - in fact, the Brewers were almost the only thing he talked about at all. If Weeks goes, I have no idea who would hit leadoff, it makes me think Hardy is perhaps the most likely to go - but that's not my personal choice.

[phxMILWfan]

Would Cleveland do Bill Hall, Laporta, and Gwynn Jr? Even if we throw in a pitcher I think both sides could be happy. We rent Sabathia for the rest of the year and get extra picks and lose Hall's contract. The Indians get atleast 3 big league players. Just interested to hear what everyone would think of that.

[splitterpfj]

Blending with existing Sabathia thread.

[SeriesFinale]

But what would I do with my JJ Hottie shirt?

 

I'd really hate to see either Weeks or Hardy go in this deal but if that's what it takes to not send both LaPorta and Gamel than so be it. I'd prefer the Hall/Gwynn combo of course but I don't think the Indians would bite.

[phxMILWfan]

Thanks splitter, and great info. With all of the young catching we suddenly have I'd love to see Salome be a big part of the deal. I think Gamel is the one player I wouldn't trade out of the names given. Who plays third long term if we move him? There are 5 or 6 great or potential great players in the organization that can play first. I can't wait until things start happening. Is there a limit to the number of compensation picks if we do get CC and lose him and Sheets? If Cordero and Linebrink brought the picks they did I can only imagine what CC and Sheets would be worth.

[ELCABALLO45]

I could not even think about this happening 5 years ago. The biggest prize in the trade market and the Brewers are gettin talked about as the team that could get him. Awesome

[splitterpfj]

Is there a limit to the number of compensation picks if we do get CC and lose him and Sheets? If Cordero and Linebrink brought the picks they did I can only imagine what CC and Sheets would be worth.

 

Believe it or not, the compensation level would be the same. If the Brewers had them both, and lost them both, they'd wind up with four extra picks, just as they did for Cordero and Linebrink.

[logan82]

X ellence wrote:

You must be a huge Dave Bush fan if your against trading Fielder. There were a few pitchers who had as many or more win shares than Fielder last year, and a ton of them this year. If the Brewers can trade Fielder, or trade the prospects they net from Fielder, for 1 of these pitchers, then Fielders replacement, Matt LaPorta or Matt Gamel, only have to outproduce Dave Bush to improve the team. I think those guys could do that in there sleep.

No, I am saying that Fielder and Sheets are a big reason that we are where we are right now. I don't think it is a good idea to trade MLB players when you are in a playoff race and replace them with AA players.

 

Die hard Brewer fans out there tell me this are you willing to mortgage the longterm success of the team for a chance to just make the playoffs?

 

Yes, we can't count on the rest of the NL being this bad again in the near future.

[LouisEly]

See, here's the thing with Sabathia: if negotiations aren't going anywhere, the Indians are the ones who are under the gun. If they can't resign him they know, and every team in major league baseball knows, his value becomes their comp picks. That's why teams aren't giving up the farm for a rental player anymore. Historically, looking at late first round picks there aren't a lot of superstars picked there. So I don't think any team will give a ton more than the value of the comp picks; it will be more about the organizational needs of the Indians and how well teams can meet their needs. Which brings me to:

 

I know the Huntsville Stars have been talked up a lot but does anyone think a major-league Brewer might be dealt along with one of LaPorta/Gamel as well?

 

Joel... that and the smoke comments - you're so close you can taste it! (It's dung! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif)

 

What are the Indians biggest needs right now? Well, Jamey Carroll is their starting second baseman. And their outfield, outside of Sizemore, is Ben Francisco, David Dellucci, and Franklin Gutierrez. And Joe Borowski is their closer. 'Nuff said.

 

The answer is simple - Weeks and Gillespie to CLE for Sabathia. Hall slides over to 2B, Dillon platoons with Branyan at 3B. Maybe throw in Pena, but I don't think teams will offer close to what Weeks value is in return. Heck, given Sabathia's contract demands I think Weeks and Gillespie might be overpaying. I don't think it will take a lot more than Weeks to get CC. Weeks, Pena, and Katin?

 

If not Weeks, then Iribarren (replace Carroll), Pena (replace Borowski), Gillespie (replace Dellucci/Gutierrez), one of Narron/Hammond/Welch (lefty starter to replace CC), and maybe another throw-in (Katin? Wright?) would be a great deal for the Indians. They would get three top-15 prospects (Gillespie - #6/7, Pena - #9-12, Iribarren - #12-15) who would be upgrades over their current players at those positions plus a throw-in or two with value for a rental. I doubt they will get offered much more than that, especially with CC's contract demands and the value of the comp picks.

[DHonks]

Is there a limit to the number of compensation picks if we do get CC and lose him and Sheets? If Cordero and Linebrink brought the picks they did I can only imagine what CC and Sheets would be worth.

 

Believe it or not, the compensation level would be the same. If the Brewers had them both, and lost them both, they'd wind up with four extra picks, just as they did for Cordero and Linebrink.

 

 

splitter, while that's true, it's also a little misleading. We would still get 4 picks, but where would Sheets and Sabathia be going? Most likely NY, NY, Boston, or Anaheim. All would pick in the bottom half of the round, so instead of netting 2 supplemental picks AND 2 2nd rounders, we'd likely net the supplementals AND first rounders. It'd mean 5 picks in the top 40, not 3 in the top 40

[LouisEly]

The other big move I see the Brewers making would be sending Weeks and/or a top prospect or two to Colorado to acquire Fuentes and Ian Stewart. Fuentes gives them a closer and a lefty in the pen for the stretch run, and Stewart fills a longer-term need of a left-handed bat and a 3B of the future. I don't know what Stewart's defensive abilities are at 3B; if he is significantly better than Gamel defensively it could allow them to move Gamel to another position or to another organization for a top pitching prospect. And Stewart is a left-handed bat and right now he is blocked by Atkins and Barmes. Stewart could platoon with Hall when Branyan is gone.

 

When Melvin makes moves he likes to acquire short and long-term needs, so Fuentes and Stewart fill the bill. Not sure what to give up here (probably pitching - they'll need a closer to replace Fuentes so Pena? If the trade Holliday then they may need OF prospects - Gillespie? Prolly have to throw in some starting pitching prospects like Periad & Wright). Don't know if Pena/Gillespie/Periad/Wright would get it done, but I would ask.

[danzig6767]

See, here's the thing with Sabathia: if negotiations aren't going anywhere, the Indians are the ones who are under the gun. If they can't resign him they know, and every team in major league baseball knows, his value becomes their comp picks. That's why teams aren't giving up the farm for a rental player anymore. Historically, looking at late first round picks there aren't a lot of superstars picked there. So I don't think any team will give a ton more than the value of the comp picks; it will be more about the organizational needs of the Indians and how well teams can meet their needs. Which brings me to:

Maybe teams won't be willing to give a ton for a rental in most cases, but Sabathia is a true number one starter that won the CY Young last year and he's been flat out dominant the last two months. In May he averaged over 7 innings per start with a 2.44 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP with two complete games. In June over five starts he averaged nearly 8 innings per start with a 1.89 ERA and a .95 WHIP. Unlike many players that get dealt at the deadline, Sabathia could lead a team in the playoffs to a title given the huge importance of starting pitching in 5 or 7 game series. This gives the Indians more leverage than your normal team trying to trade a much less important player for prospects, nearly every likely playoff team and legit playoff contender could end up at least seeing what Cleveland would want in return because they know how huge an ace can be in the playoffs. The more teams who call will drive up the ability of the Indians to increase what they ask for.

What are the Indians biggest needs right now? Well, Jamey Carroll is their starting second baseman. And their outfield, outside of Sizemore, is Ben Francisco, David Dellucci, and Franklin Gutierrez. And Joe Borowski is their closer. 'Nuff said.

 

The answer is simple - Weeks and Gillespie to CLE for Sabathia. Hall slides over to 2B, Dillon platoons with Branyan at 3B. Maybe throw in Pena, but I don't think teams will offer close to what Weeks value is in return. Heck, given Sabathia's contract demands I think Weeks and Gillespie might be overpaying. I don't think it will take a lot more than Weeks to get CC. Weeks, Pena, and Katin?

I'd be shocked if all it took was Weeks and Gillespie to fetch Sabathia. The Indians very well could have lukewarm interest at best in Weeks given his health history, inconsistent play both offensively/defensively, and just overall pretty mediocre results from a guy in his 4th big league season, who also is entering his arby years. Gillespie is a solid prospect, but not one that teams would feel very confident that he'll become an everyday productive corner OF. If i was Cleveland, i'd demand at least one of our top 5 prospects to start a potential deal and then negotiate on who else the Brewers include. If Melvin said no, then i'd talk to other teams and i strongly believe a team or multiple teams would offer something more appealing than Weeks and Gillespie.

If not Weeks, then Iribarren (replace Carroll), Pena (replace Borowski), Gillespie (replace Dellucci/Gutierrez), one of Narron/Hammond/Welch (lefty starter to replace CC), and maybe another throw-in (Katin? Wright?) would be a great deal for the Indians. They would get three top-15 prospects (Gillespie - #6/7, Pena - #9-12, Iribarren - #12-15) who would be upgrades over their current players at those positions plus a throw-in or two with value for a rental. I doubt they will get offered much more than that, especially with CC's contract demands and the value of the comp picks.

No offense dude, but i see absolutely no way Cleveland says yes an Iribarren/Pena/Gillespie/Narron or Hammond type of trade, or that other teams won't offer better. That's a quantity over quality trade, there isn't a single top 100 prospect among those four or a guy with an extremely high ceiling. Plus, Iribarren projects a a utility player and those three pitchers are unlikely to be anything more than a 5th starter in the bigs and that's if any can even make it to the bigs.

 

I'm very leery of trading a Laporta, Gamel, or Escobar along with adding another good piece or two for only 12ish starts from Sabathia, but i'm pretty damn sure that's hat it'll take and that you're wishful thinking in the proposals you threw out there.

 

 

[trwi7]

but I don't think teams will offer close to what Weeks value is in return. Heck, given Sabathia's contract demands I think Weeks and Gillespie might be overpaying. I don't think it will take a lot more than Weeks to get CC. Weeks, Pena, and Katin?

What is Weeks' value right now? I'm guessing it's not very much. I could see the Indians taking a chance on Weeks if we were willing to part with him but not as the centerpiece of a Sabathia trade. Weeks just doesn't have that much value imo, as much as it pains me to say it.

Pena's a good relief prospect and all and the Indians would probably like him but again, nothing special for a package involving C.C.

Katin is just brutal this year. .265/.310/.518/.828 with only 9 walks drawn with 84 K's. They would probably be better off going with a combo of Francisco/Gutierrez/Choo. Add in that Katin is already 25 and has had a less than stellar minor league track record and he really isn't worth that much.

Personally I don't think that package is close to being enough.

If we're only trading one of our "big five" I would put it in this order; 1 being most tradeable to five being nearly untouchable.

1. Michael Brantley

2. Angel Salome

3. Matt LaPorta

4. Alcides Escobar

5. Mat Gamel

 

I would have to think at least one of those players would have to go in a Sabathia trade and I would be willing to involve any one of them if we got the right package in return. Of course if we move someone like Brantley or Salome I would be willing to add more prospects, someone like Cole Gillespie along with Salome for example. If it takes a LaPorta, Escobar or Gamel it would pretty much have to be that player and then a lesser prospect or two.

 

 

[danzig6767]

The other big move I see the Brewers making would be sending Weeks and/or a top prospect or two to Colorado to acquire Fuentes and Ian Stewart. Fuentes gives them a closer and a lefty in the pen for the stretch run, and Stewart fills a longer-term need of a left-handed bat and a 3B of the future. I don't know what Stewart's defensive abilities are at 3B; if he is significantly better than Gamel defensively it could allow them to move Gamel to another position or to another organization for a top pitching prospect. And Stewart is a left-handed bat and right now he is blocked by Atkins and Barmes. Stewart could platoon with Hall when Branyan is gone.

 

When Melvin makes moves he likes to acquire short and long-term needs, so Fuentes and Stewart fill the bill. Not sure what to give up here (probably pitching - they'll need a closer to replace Fuentes so Pena? If the trade Holliday then they may need OF prospects - Gillespie? Prolly have to throw in some starting pitching prospects like Periad & Wright). Don't know if Pena/Gillespie/Periad/Wright would get it done, but I would ask.

Pena/Gillespie/Periad/Wright for Stewart and Fuentes?

 

No chance i'd accept that trade if i'm the Rockies. I really think you're doing a lot of wishful thinking in these trade proposals you throw out there, wanting us to get high quality without having to include any of our upper tier prospects. We aren't going to get a guy like Sabathia or both Fuentes AND Stewart for a combination of guys outside of our top 10 prospects.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I really hope this trade doesnt happen. I dont want to give up LaPorta, Gamel, or Weeks in order to rent Sabathia. Please CC resign with Cleveland so Doug doesnt mortgage the future in order to rent you!

[molitor fan]

Just to restate the level of pitching we are talking about with this acquisition, in Sabathia's last 10 starts he has averaged 8 6 2 2 1 8.

 

Averaging 8 innings over a 10 start span is just awesome.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Sabathia is an awesome pitcher but I wouldnt give up 6 plus years of guys like LaPorta and Gamel or the potential of Rickie Weeks to rent anyone. I would rather trade 4 or 5 lesser players to get him and if thats not good enough Id pass. How about Salome, Brantley, Gillespie, and if you twist my arm maybe Jeffress.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Excellent info Molitor, is anyone interested in winning on this board, don't mortgage the future??? Draft picks etc.. I never hear about how badly any of want the Brewers to win. Why don't we trust Jack Z & DM a little bit, if they feel we could trade Hardy and go with Escobar so we lose a little offense, pitching wise we would be very very tough and also would be very tough in a playoff series with BS, CC & Parra probably being the 3 starters, maybe Suppan would get a start as well. The door is as open for the playoffs as might ever be, look at the standings, its us, Cardinals and Marlins above .500, THAT's IT for the wildcard.

 

Its time to stop always worry about our minor league system, guys on here are still dying over the Linebrink trade, get over it guys!!! Time to win and get some postseason experience.

 

 

GO BREW!!

[TheCrew07]

Something to keep in mind...

 

The Brewers are the fantastic position of having a great deal of hitting depth, but how many deals can Melvin make before it's all used up? You have to keep some of the players around for the big club, so not everyone is available. I can see a maximum of 2 prospect deals that can be done (6-8 players), and 1 of those deals needs to be for a long term rotation solution or the team is just treading water. If Prince were to get traded then you have a maximum of 3 deals to plug pitching holes, but anyway you slice it the Brewers still need a long term rotation solution.

 

edit. It's been stated many times but how does trading starting pitching help solidify the rotation? especially for a rental?

[fondybrewfan]

If we traded Weeks who the heck would play 2nd. a Dillounsell platoon? No Thank You. I also strongly object ot trading JJ Hardy, lets talk again when he is not on fire. I would do without hesitation a LaPorta, Hammond, Gwynn Jr deal. Or perhaps LaPorta, Salome/LuCroy (Which ever the club is "lower" on), and Hammond/or other mid level pitching prospect for CC and Perez/Betancourt

[splitterpfj]

Fondy, if Weeks is traded, either Hall or Alcides Escobar would play second base.

[Oldcity]

I'm guessing that a LaPorta, Weeks/Hardy would be the starting point for the Indians probably ending with Villanueva or even possibly Bush (I doubt it though) for Sabathia.

I'd react to that deal with the fury of a thousand suns. I'm not convinced they should give up LaPorta or Gamel, much less one of their major league starters in addition. He's a two month rental! If they're moving any of those guys, it should be for someone like Greinke, Cain, etc.

[JohnBriggs12]

Something to keep in mind...

 

The Brewers are the fantastic position of having a great deal of hitting depth, but how many deals can Melvin make before it's all used up? You have to keep some of the players around for the big club, so not everyone is available. I can see a maximum of 2 prospect deals that can be done (6-8 players), and 1 of those deals needs to be for a long term rotation solution or the team is just treading water. If Prince were to get traded then you have a maximum of 3 deals to plug pitching holes, but anyway you slice it the Brewers still need a long term rotation solution.

 

edit. It's been stated many times but how does trading starting pitching help solidify the rotation? especially for a rental?

 

Let's see them make one first before we start worrying. We do know Braun is locked up for a long time and even though some guys could be traded, there will be a lot of guys added to the organization via the draft before Braun's deal runs out.

 

I mentioned earlier in this thread that I suspected there were people that considered Escobar the top Brewer prospect which is saying a lot. With Hardy and Weeks' names being thrown out there, those people I mentioned could very well be Melvin and Ash. Hardy fans need to realize that Escobar's numbers at Huntsville are better than Hardy's were there.

 

The other factor is the contract situation for Hardy. He has just 2 arby years left and he figures to get a big raise for 2009. Nobody's talking about a long term deal for him. You deal Hardy, and suddenly that's at least $10 million total you won't have to pay in 09 and 10. If they included Hardy in a deal, it would indicate to me their intention of locking up either Sheets or Sabathia beyond this year using some of the money saved.

[splitterpfj]

I have a feeling Cleveland is asking for the moon at this point, but I don't think they'll get it.

 

Watch Milwaukee, but also watch Tampa, my bet is on one of the two. Tampa could give more arms, for sure, while the Brewers have the better bats ready to move.