The CC Sabathia thread: Latest - CC a Brewer! (part 1)

[splitterpfj]

I was just perusing CC's statistics and noticed this nugget of bonus that makes me want him in Brewers blue just that much more:

 

Career: 40 ABs, 12 H, 1 2B, 2 HR, 300/317/475

 

I love pitchers that can swing the bat a little! Anyone seen him atbat? Does he look legit or is it just a small sample size?

CC can hit, for sure. In fact, if the Brewers did get him, and if it came down to paying Sheets or Sabathia to stay here, this might come into play.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Instead of an obscure class A pitcher, the Brewers might want an obscure rookie ball outfielder just so they can field a healthy club in Helena. But LaPorta, Villanueva and someone like Bobby Bramhall or Fryer or Brendan Katin looks about right, JB12.

You maybe right AT, but isn't "Melvin's rule" to always get a young arm included in a deal?

[Oldcity]

There are really only a handful of clubs who are willing and able to trade for two months of Sabathia and the Indians have no choice but to accept the best offer they get, even if it's not very good.

I don't think the Indians have to move Sabathia at all. If they don't get a deal they like, they'll just keep him and take the two draft picks for him. Washington did this a few years back with Soriano, for example.

 

[splitterpfj]

I agree with Stevo on this, there is no "have to" for the Indians. The Brewers have to come up with an offer that is perceived to be better than the two draft picks Cleveland will get if CC walks in November. The Brewers can certainly do that, but it's not like Cleveland will just take whoever Melvin feels like offering.

[jjfanec]

Yes the Brewers would have to come up with a better offer than two draft picks but I don't think LaPorta or Gamel need to be in the mix to do that. Escobar, Salome, and others have some good upside.

[TheCrew07]

I still don't think LaPorta or Gamel go in a Sabathia deal, we'll just have to wait and see I guess. Rotoherb has made some excellent points in a couple of different threads now about the lack of top minor league talent being shipped around during deadline deals. Just because a prospect is someone's #2 prospect, doesn't mean they are a top 25 talent in all of MiLB, and that's what we're talking about in Gamel and LaPorta. I still think we'll see a quanity deal here, one of Salome/Lucroy, maybe a Brantley and a Nelson, or Pena/Aguilar... the options outside of Gamel, LaPorta, and Jeffress are pretty limitless, it just depends what Cleveland would want back.

 

I'm all for aquiring Sabathia as long as it doesn't cost Gamel, LaPorta, or Jeffress. Of the 3, I'm most willing to part with LaPorta, but I hope it doesn't come down to that.

 

As far as the draft picks go... Given the Yankee pitching woes this season, I fully expect them to sign Sheets or Sabathia this off season, so as long as they maintain position we'd pickup another first round pick. Like sbrylski06 said, I'd be much more inclined to try to sign Sabathia to a long term deal rather than Sheets.

[wibadgers23]

Would it make sense to include Hardy in a deal to acquire Sabathia? I think Escobar could come right in and do a fine job at short. I think if we included Hardy in the deal, then the chances of having to include Gamel or LaPorta decrease.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yes the Brewers would have to come up with a better offer than two draft picks but I don't think LaPorta or Gamel need to be in the mix to do that. Escobar, Salome, and others have some good upside.

 

I think there's some out there that think Escobar is the best of all the prospects jjfanec.

 

As to Stevo's point about Washington opting for the draft picks, keep in mind that Washington was in a long term rebuilding mode and Cleveland still has a solid contending core if they were healthy. I think they want more immediate return than 2 draft picks and that does work in Brewer favor.

[SoCalBrewfan]

the Indians have no choice but to accept the best offer they get, even if it's not very good.

 

Cleveland GM Shapiro is not afraid of draft choices, so they could offer CCS arbitration and then get a 1S plus a first or second round pick if he signs elsewhere. If they don't get an offer better than that, they will hold onto Sabathia. Laporta is worth a lot more than a single draft choice, as he's so close to being ready to contribute, and looks virtually certain to be a big league hitter with a good shot at being an impact bat. But that backdrop should put to rest the notion that Cleveland would give up Sabathia for filler. (As noted elsewhere, draft choices are risky and expensive, but some teams do value them in a deal like this.)

 

Current Brewers who could be trade bait are Villanueva and Hall, as noted...though both are probably at the lower end of their value right now; either would have been a lot more valuable in the offseason. I could see one of them used in a deal for sure, and I think they'd be at least as valuable to a trade partner as an A ball guy or a second or third tier prospect, but I could also see us holding them for now.

 

Rotoherb posted a link to past trade deadlines, which is cool...thanks! Just browsing through, the closest comparable deal in recent memory might be Freddy Garcia from Seattle for Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo, and Mike Morse. Garcia was almost up for free agency, so he's at a similar point at Sabathia. But he then signed a three-year extension with the White Sox...if we could pull that off I'd be pretty excited, but I don't see it happening. Still...Reed was a good prospect at the time, who had crushed AA the year before to the tune of .400/.470/.590, but was only pretty good in AAA at the time of the deal. Still, I think he was roughly comparable to Gamel or Laporta.

 

Maybe Kris Benson for Wigginton, Jose Bautista, and an arm is also comparable. But there just haven't been a lot of top-flight starters moved at this point in the last few years, perhaps because the return just isn't there and teams value draft picks more than they used to.

 

I hope we don't emulate the other Mets trade that year, Zambrano for Kazmir.

[splitterpfj]

Prior to the start of this season, the top ten prospects for the Indians included five pitchers, three corner infielders, and two outfielders - there is some power on the list, but nobody like LaPorta. The top rated catcher was #13, the top middle infielder was #18.

 

I have not reviewed this season's stats for these players, (Aaron Laffey and Ben Francisco were on the list), but it appears as though Cleveland would have need for LaPorta, Escobar, or Salome.

 

I think it'll take three players - one of those top prospects, and from there I would guess one outfielder - Cain, Ford, Gillespie or maybe Iribarren, and a pitcher, perhaps Braddock, Periard or Seidel. I don't see any way the Brewers get out of this without giving up at least one arm, and I doubt they'll be willing to let go of Jeffress.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers gave them three lists - pick one each from Groups A, B and C.

[jjfanec]

If the Brewers decide JJ is the SS of the future Escobar would be a good guy to center the deal around. Hardy has had a respectable May and a really good June and from the games I have seen is playing really nice D. Salome would be good to center it around as well because the have Lucroy right behind him and Kendall will be back next year. If they trade Escobar they do not have many shortstops in the system that I know of so they would be thin there. LaPorta plays a position that can be replaced 1B or corner OF, but his power is second to none (like Escobar's fielding is).

After thinking if a deal centered around Salome with other prospects could be enough then I would say go for it. A deal with Escobar would be one I wouldn't want to give up too much else with. And a deal with LaPorta isn't one I really like at all, but I think a lot of others are warming up to it. I just think he will be a great "power hitter" in the majors. I might just be over estimating his ability. I just don't want to give up a future Braun or Fielder for a 2 month shot at the playoffs.

[fondybrewfan]

I would just assume that if we want to do this deal that we do it ASAP, get as many starts out of CC as possible. I think LaPorta, Salome, Pena, and maybe one more would get it done

 

EDIT: and if at all possible include Rafael Perez in the deal. Heck maybe we could throw in Gagne and they could get an extra draft pick out of the deal. I thought I heard Gagne would most likely be a a Type B. We could even pick up some salary to sweeten the deal

[And That]

As long as we're talking Indians pitchers, I'd also like to see if they'd be willing to part with Rafael Betancourt. He's having an off year in the ERA department so they may not want to trade him in an off year, but he's signed to a reasonable deal through next year (and an option after that).

[rotoherb]

The Nationals were roundly criticized by everyone far and wide for not trading Soriano at the deadline and rightly so. I'll be very shocked if they don't trade Sabathia. Can you even name another All-Star type free agent to be who wasn't traded at the deadline by a team out of contention? Soriano is the only one, which kind of proves the point. Getting a few Double-A or higher prospects who project as starters in any capacity in the majors is better off than the two draft picks and mlb GMs know this.

 

The Indians aren't going to keep Sabathia just because they aren't offer a top prospect. Other teams only need to make an offer that's better than the two draft picks threshold, which isn't a whole lot. I'm not saying that the Indians will take a bucket of balls for him, but Shapiro is going to take the best trade offer. He's not going to settle for two draft picks if anything better was ever on the table. That would simply be hurting your own team.

[nate82]

I might just be over estimating his ability. I just don't want to give up a future Braun or Fielder for a 2 month shot at the playoffs.

Or you could be giving up a future Nelson Cruz also. It swings both ways. To me LaPorta is replaceable because he is just another right handed hitter. Those are easy to replace compared to a left handed pitcher or batter. With Sabathia and Sheets if both walk we have two type A free agents leaving. Both probably going to either Anaheim, Boston, or the Yankees. Which would give us 2 extra first round picks if either goto any one of those teams.

 

OF depth in the system is not something to be worried about either. There maybe another smaller trade that involves some of the minor league OF depth the Brewers have with Kansas City's pitching depth in the minors. I wouldn't count out a deal with the Royals and Brewers.

 

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers gave them three lists - pick one each from Groups A, B and C.

 

If the Brewers did give them this list and it did not include LaPorta, Gamel or Jeffress...how would it look versus an offer that the Cubs would put together? While the Cubs, etc. certainly have more financial resources, I don't think that matters here. It's all about the prospects. If, as an example our #4, #8 & #15 prospect could get this done...does it look better than the Cubs throwing out their #1, #4 & #8 prospect?

 

It seems our farm system is well ahead of our immediate competition...but by how much?

[nate82]

If the Brewers did give them this list and it did not include LaPorta, Gamel or Jeffress...how would it look versus an offer that the Cubs would put together? While the Cubs, etc. certainly have more financial resources, I don't think that matters here. It's all about the prospects. If, as an example our #4, #8 & #15 prospect could get this done...does it look better than the Cubs throwing out their #1, #4 & #8 prospect?

 

It seems our farm system is well ahead of our immediate competition...but by how much?

It would then depend on the need for the Indians and which deal fills that need and if they are getting more than two comp picks worth.

[splitterpfj]

When I wrote that, I'm assuming LaPorta would be available, essentially, I'm saying LaPorta, Escobar or Salome, with an outfielder, and a pitcher.

 

Given the Brewers' organizational needs, I'd prefer that we keep Escobar, we've got what LaPorta does best, and we've got two other catching prospects coming behind Salome.

 

SoCal Brew Crew - If the Brewers decide to push this issue, the Cubs simply cannot match the offer with prospects - their system just isn't deep enough. Boston and Tampa Bay certainly have the depth to make a deal for Sabathia, honestly, I think I'd list them as the top competitors here. I think St Louis could build a package that Cleveland would take, but their system doesn't have the overall depth to absorb a big talent loss, I think it would be a bigger gamble for them.

 

If the Dodgers decide they're in the race, they could get involved here, otherwise I'd say Boston and Tampa, with St Louis as a maybe...depending of course on which teams even decide to pursue Sabathia.

 

If St Louis pays big for a player this month, I'd think Matt Holliday is a more likely candidate than Sabathia.

 

The Cubs will almost certainly add a pitcher, but I think Randy Wolf is a more likely target for them than CC is.

 

I think the bidding for Brian Fuentes will have more teams involved than Sabathia will. Fuentes is a rock solid reliever with two plus' on his side - he's a lefty, and he's been an effective closer. I think the Rockies will do very well in a Fuentes deal, even if they don't get one huge prospect in the return, they should get multiple players who can help down the road.

[nate82]

When I wrote that, I'm assuming LaPorta would be available, essentially, I'm saying LaPorta, Escobar or Salome, with an outfielder, and a pitcher.

 

Given the Brewers' organizational needs, I'd prefer that we keep Escobar, we've got what LaPorta does best, and we've got two other catching prospects coming behind Salome.

I'm guessing that a deal for Sabathia would be something like this LaPorta, Salome, and Villanueva. Salome and LaPorta would be the 2 comp pick players and Villanueva would be the starting pitcher or reliever the Indians would be looking for. I don't like trading Villanueva since that leaves us with either Bush or McClung as our long relief option. Not a perfect trade and it leaves a hole that Villanueva was taking up. Maybe the Brewers would also get someone from the Indians bullpen with Sabathia.

 

[jjfanec]

See I really don't think we have a guy who replaces what LaPorta brings. Yes, we have guys who can play his position but we don't have anyone near him in terms of power (although Gamel's numbers are near him). It is great to have a power bat who seems to take walks at a good rate. That is where the potential to be Nelson Cruz seems to fall apart for me. Nelson always struck out over twice as much as he walked. LaPorta has not show that at all this year with 42 BB and 60 K. Those are respectable numbers for a masher. His OBP is .110 points higher than his BA. I think his numbers project pretty darn well. If we do give up LaPorta I don't think we should have to give up much if anything else, for sure not a top end prospect.

[trwi7]

So funny I just had to post it.

 

Well the Brewers have 3 players who I'd love to get. They are all in AA tearing it up.

 

Mat Gamel, 3B - turns 23 in a few weeks

Matt LaPorta, RF - age 23

Alcides Escobar, SS - doesn't turn 22 until December

 

The Brewers will be more likely to deal these guys if we take a bad contract off their hands. With a ton of payroll coming off the books after this season, I think we could afford to do that.

 

Their bad contracts are:

 

• Jeff Suppan - owed $12.5 million in 2009, $12.5 in 2010, team option for $12.75 million in 2011 (or a $2 million buyout)
  • [li]He's a nice, solid pitcher, but he is certainly overpaid.
    

  [/li]

• Bill Hall - owed $6.8 million in 2009, $8.4 million in 2010, team option for $9.25 million in 2011 ($0.5 million buyout)
  • [li]He's been awful at the plate this year.
    

  [/li]

• David Riske - owed $4.25 million in 2009, $4.5 million in 2010, team option for $4.75 million in 2011 ($0.25 million buyout)

There could be potential for a large deal.

 

If we could get all 3 prospects (I know, a HUGE stretch), I would include Peralta and Blake in the deal (hey, Peralta is definitely better than Hardy and Blake is better than Hall right now - although Branyan is a pleasant surprise) and I would take Hardy, Hally, and Riske all in return.

 

The Brewers would shed 2 of their 3 bad contracts AND add a stud ace AND improve their offense all in one trade.

 

I'm not saying it's likely, but it would DRASTICALLY improve the Brewers. They'd get a better offensive 3B and SS and one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball. We'd get 3 stud prospects (and 2 bad contracts).

[TheCrew07]

My issue with rental player deals will always be the same, we're unloading depth and we don't gain any logevity in the rotation. I'd much rather target Gallardos and Lincecums before they reach their current level, than try to target them once their value is established. I would rather get players the Brewers can control long term, than the never ending stream of rental deals that are proposed every year now that the team is relatively close. I'll give up a bit of quanity for a shot at Sabathia and the playoffs, but if we're giving up quality I want a long term solution.

 

edit. What's sad about the deal above is that's exactly the type of haul some people think we could get for Sheets.

[dadofandrew]

No one of any consequence thought Nelson Cruz was a future star, as he has no plate discipline. Laporta or Gamel is oodles better now, never mind when they are as old as Cruz.

 

I'd hate to lose 6-6.5 years of either for a dozen starts of anyone...if they stay healthy. 2 draft picks would be a nice consolation, but unlike with guys like Inman, a pick would have to overachieve greatly to be as highly considered as Matt ot Mat.

[splitterpfj]

I'm guessing that a deal for Sabathia would be something like this LaPorta, Salome, and Villanueva.

 

Nate, I honestly don't think the Brewers would part with both LaPorta and Salome for a player who will walk in November. I think one of their top five prospects would be in the deal, but no more than one.

[nate82]

Nate, I honestly don't think the Brewers would part with both LaPorta and Salome for a player who will walk in November. I think one of their top five prospects would be in the deal, but no more than one.

I agree but it doesn't leave much for a trade. Since you would be trading LaPorta an OF/1B depends what Cleveland sees him as. Then you are going to have to throw a pitcher in there which Villanueva fits perfectly a major league ready starter or reliever. That leaves either Gillespie, Salome, Lucroy, Escobar (Won't be traded not much depth at SS in the minors), Jeffress (one of the few good young pitching prospects in the system so I doubt he gets traded), and Gwynn/Crabbe/Iribarren.

 

I agree that the Brewers shouldn't trade more than one of their top 5 guys in this deal. But it might be the price you would have to pay for Sabathia. Should the Brewers do that? I'm not sure. But if the Indians were willing to take a LaPorta (future 1B/DH of the Indians), Iribarren (super utility player), Villanueva (starter or bullpen guy), and Hall for Sabathia, Rafael Perez, and a Player to be named later. It wouldn't be a bad deal for the Brewers or the Indians.