The CC Sabathia thread: Latest - CC a Brewer! (part 1)

[bucks2281]

Let's move Hart to leadoff permanently. DFA Mota...maybe try our luck at acquiring Fuentes? The bullpen is a weakness, but solidifying the rotation is a concern (Bush is extremely shaky; is McClung a long term option?; Suppan is Suppan; concerns over Parra's innings?)

 

Next year, Sheets is gone. I have concerns about the strength of next year's rotation. And, trust me, this is NOT a championship caliber club. But honestly, there were maybe three championship caliber clubs last year (BOS, CLE, LAA). There are maybe four this year-- and they're shaky (BOS?, TB?, CHC?, LAA). Take the gamble, because once you're into the playoffs, it's a crapshoot. If Melvin acquires CC, you know he and Mark A mean business. I have faith they'd address the bullpen situation.

 

Edit: Not to mention, the schedule is much more favorable in the second half. I'd be very satisfied with Sheets/Sabathia in the 16 games with St. Louis and Chicago.

[Big Cat Dad]

I know I'm gun shy from being a brewer fan for so long, this deal scares the heck out of me. I will gladly come back and eat crow if we go to the world series with Sabathia on the roster, however, if we don't IMO it would be a totally failed trade. I still won't buy the "it was a risk we had to take". I just don't feel it is. Are we a championship caliber team right now without him....no way, I just don't think we are with him either.

 

We should archive the thread and revisit it in 3 years, then have this discussion.

 

The whole idea off this makes my skin crawl.

[ELCABALLO45]

The more and more I hear people talk about this trade, the more and more It gets me nervous.

 

I want this to happen SO bad. Having Sheets and Sabathia go back to back in the rotation would be a dream.

 

However losing such good talent down the road sucks as well.

 

Whatever Doug Melvin does im going to be happy with it.

[Big Cat Dad]

Well, adding another arm rotation allows flexibility in moving a rotation arm to the pen to rid the team of the scourge of Mota.

But yeah, honestly, if either LaPorta or Gamel get moved in a deal without at least something other than Sabathia coming back, I think the club would regret it.

 

 

good post Brian.....I don't know if moving Bush or McClung back to the pen is the kind of flexibility I'm looking for, but I get your point.....and yeah we will regret it.

It's 3:30 over there guys...what you still doing up? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[trwi7]

Are we a championship caliber team right now without him....no way, I just don't think we are with him either.

Well if Sheets leaves next year do we even have a playoff caliber rotation with Gallardo coming off of major knee surgery, Parra, the mediocreness of Suppan, McClung and the less than mediocreness of Bush? That's why many feel the time to go for it is now. Sheets is a free agent after this year, he likely won't be back. The young hitters are getting older, we won't be able to afford to keep all of them so what do you do if you're Melvin? Just stand pat and hope every single thing breaks right, Sheets re-signs, Gallardo returns to his awesomeness before the injury, Parra keeps improving and McClung stays with a low to mid 4's ERA? That's the type of thing that gets GM's fired.

 

Could this trade end up coming back to bite us in the ass? Definitely. If LaPorta turns into Braun it doesn't look good that we gave up six years of him for a rental. But what if LaPorta is a bust, Sabathia leads us to the playoffs or better yet the World Series and the players we draft with our compensation picks turn out to be good major leaguers? Looks like a pretty sweet deal for us then. Hell, this deal could still look great for us even if LaPorta turns out to be a stud.

[bucks2281]

Maybe it's just the fact that it's 330 am or the heated conversation, but I really want this to happen, now more than ever. It may be crazy, but I'd do close to whatever it takes. I'm probably shortsighted/naive for putting all of my eggs in one basket, but I think Sheets/Sabathia wins us the Wild Card. This is a very necessary risk (come on, I just want to see playoff baseball!!)

[Big Cat Dad]

Let's move Hart to leadoff permanently. DFA Mota...maybe try our luck at acquiring Fuentes? The bullpen is a weakness, but solidifying the rotation is a concern (Bush is extremely shaky; is McClung a long term option?; Suppan is Suppan; concerns over Parra's innings?)

 

Next year, Sheets is gone. I have concerns about the strength of next year's rotation. And, trust me, this is NOT a championship caliber club. But honestly, there were maybe three championship caliber clubs last year (BOS, CLE, LAA). There are maybe four this year-- and they're shaky (BOS?, TB?, CHC?, LAA). Take the gamble, because once you're into the playoffs, it's a crapshoot. If Melvin acquires CC, you know he and Mark A mean business. I have faith they'd address the bullpen situation.

 

Edit: Not to mention, the schedule is much more favorable in the second half. I'd be very satisfied with Sheets/Sabathia in the 16 games with St. Louis and Chicago.

I understand you logic....I really do, I just disagree (obviously http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif). As fans we really want this in the worst way. I don't think taking a gamble with Laporta or Gamel is a risk I'm willing to take if I'm Doug Melvin.

[ELCABALLO45]

Let's move Hart to leadoff permanently. DFA Mota...maybe try our luck at acquiring Fuentes? The bullpen is a weakness, but solidifying the rotation is a concern (Bush is extremely shaky; is McClung a long term option?; Suppan is Suppan; concerns over Parra's innings?)

 

Next year, Sheets is gone. I have concerns about the strength of next year's rotation. And, trust me, this is NOT a championship caliber club. But honestly, there were maybe three championship caliber clubs last year (BOS, CLE, LAA). There are maybe four this year-- and they're shaky (BOS?, TB?, CHC?, LAA). Take the gamble, because once you're into the playoffs, it's a crapshoot. If Melvin acquires CC, you know he and Mark A mean business. I have faith they'd address the bullpen situation.

 

Edit: Not to mention, the schedule is much more favorable in the second half. I'd be very satisfied with Sheets/Sabathia in the 16 games with St. Louis and Chicago.

I understand you logic....I really do, I just disagree (obviously http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif). As fans we really want this in the worst way. I don't think taking a gamble with Laporta or Gamel is a risk I'm willing to take if I'm Doug Melvin.

Well since you hate Rickie Weeks, how do we know Gamel or LaPorta won't be Rickie Weeks version 2?

[Big Cat Dad]

trwi7[/b]]

Well if Sheets leaves next year do we even have a playoff caliber rotation with Gallardo coming off of major knee surgery,

ACL surgery is hardly major any more. NFL running backs come back every year with these injuries with little to no probs. Could something go wrong...sure, but it's not an elbow or shoulder injury we're talking about here.

 

Frank Gore (running back of the 49ers) had 3 ACL surgeries in college and now he's one of the most productive backs in the NFL. I have full faith he'll be back 100%. After ACL surgery the knee is more structurally sound than before the injury.

[Big Cat Dad]

ELCABALLO45 wrote:Well since you hate Rickie Weeks, how do we know Gamel or LaPorta won't be Rickie Weeks version 2?

because Weeks never produced at this level in the Minors for this extended of a period.

Good night everyone....good discussioin. I'll see you tomorrow. Sleep on this one Melvin.

[ELCABALLO45]

ELCABALLO45 wrote:Well since you hate Rickie Weeks, how do we know Gamel or LaPorta won't be Rickie Weeks version 2?

because Weeks never produced at this level in the Minors for this extended of a period.

That does not mean Gamel or LaPorta won't be a bust tho, just like the Brewers making the playoffs, they are not sure things

[trwi7]

because Weeks never produced at this level in the Minors for this extended of a period.

 

You sure about that? Weeks had a minor league OPS (not including last year) of .889, LaPorta is much better at 1.041 but Gamel has a career .885 OPS and that includes this year.

Weeks also put up a .320/.435/.655/1.090 line in his second full year as a 22 year old in AAA. So while you could make the case that Weeks didn't perform as well as LaPorta for an extended period you can't say the same about Gamel.

[squambaum]

Giving up Laporta and Escobar seems way to steep if you ask me. I would think LaPorta straight up would be pretty close considering it is only 3 months of Sabathia. Rosenthal said in his article that he was told be rival executives that the offer was LaPorta and Escobar. "The Brewers' offer for Sabathia includes Class AA left fielder Matt LaPorta, according to sources with two other clubs that are interested in acquiring the pitcher." It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Clevland was telling these other clubs this in an attempt to get better offers. Although if I'm on of those rival executives I would probably just bow out considering that would be a tough package to beat.

The only way I could see that offer being true is if Doug Melvin fears that the Indians will drag it out and he will be outbid at the last minute and be stuck playing out the rest of the year without a significant upgrade. In which case the offer seems hasty and apprehensive which doesn't sound like Melvin at all.

[RU Rah Rah]

I just hate the rental idea, period. But I agree that the Brewers might be living on borrowed time with current rotation, especially the back end. I think I'd rather see a deal for a #2-3 starter who might be a keeper for next year; the price wouldn't be as steep, certainly, and it might be a more efficient way to serve the team's overall needs.

[dpapo]

I wouldn't include one of LaPorta, Escobar or Gamel in a trade for Sabathia. These type of trades don't work at as well for the team trading away the prospects as people may think. From Jayson Stark:

 

5. Good arms aren't always good luck charms

There's no commodity teams chase harder at the deadline than starting pitching. And it's mind-boggling how rarely it gets them anywhere. Consider this: • The last two starting pitchers acquired at midseason to win a World Series game were Jeff Weaver (picked off the scrap heap), for the 2006 Cardinals, and Mike Torrez (a relic of another era), for the 1977 Yankees. • And the last two pitchers traded on Deadline Day (July 31) to win any kind of postseason game were Oliver Perez (a reclamation-project throw-in), for the 2006 Mets, and David Weathers (as a set-up reliever), for the 1996 Yankees.

So remember, friends, there's no assurance that trading for a C.C. Sabathia is going to give your team any better chance of winning the World Series than trading for, say, Tim Redding. And that's a fact.

The reason, said O'Dowd, is simply that those starting pitchers only get to play every five days. So "just look at the number of starts a starting pitcher is going to get by the end of September," he said. "It's probably 10. So if the guy doesn't dominate in eight of those 10 starts, it's a disappointing trade." Position players are different, he said, "because they can blend into the mix." And bullpen arms, in the right role, "can make a big difference." And by the way, we can assure you O'Dowd really believes that, even though the only kinds of players he has on the block this month are (coincidentally) bats and relievers. But those monster starting-pitcher deals? They create "a tremendous amount of pressure," he said. "And not many guys are able to handle that."

 

4. Even the right moves can turn out wrong

We've been studying some of the biggest trades made at the deadline over the past half-dozen years -- those trades we all labeled "winners" at the time. What did they accomplish, in retrospect? Not what anybody figured. That's for sure. Remember last year's blockbusters? Mark Teixeira to the Braves? The Braves were 3½ games out of first when he arrived. They finished five games out. Eric Gagne to the Red Sox? All he delivered was a 6.75 ERA. Want some others, from previous years? Carlos Lee to Texas in 2006? The Rangers went from 1½ games back to 13 back. Bartolo Colon to the Expos in 2002? They played sub-.500 ball the rest of the season and finished 19 games behind -- and the three prospects traded for him (Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore) all turned into stars. So what's the moral of that story? If you're a flawed team when you make that "perfect" trade, one guy -- no matter how big a name -- rarely fixes all your problems. "The reason is there isn't a perfect team out there," said Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski. "So what happens is, as soon as you make one deal to address your biggest need, it creates another need." Or even when those deals work, you can still get flat-out unlucky. Ask former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker, now a senior vice president for baseball operations in Tampa Bay. He made two of the best midseason deals of the past decade -- snagging Carlos Beltran in 2004 and Randy Johnson in 1998. Neither trade got his team to the World Series, even though it definitely wasn't their fault. Beltran hit eight home runs in that postseason alone -- but Roger Clemens couldn't hold a one-run lead in Game 7 of the NLCS. And Johnson had a 1.93 postseason ERA, but his team scored two runs total in his two October starts -- "so we lose two low-scoring games in the first round," Hunsicker said, "and we go home."

Hunsicker has been asked "100 times" if he would make those deals again. He would. But that doesn't mean he still isn't haunted by how they turned out. "

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings

 

 

[dpapo]

My last post was getting a bit long, but I wanted to add more to my views about trading away LaPorta, Gamel or Escobar.

Even with the Sabathia, the Brewers still could use another late inning reliever. Is Torres going to be able to hold up for the entire year as the closer? They still could also use another hitter with a better OBP. I would be okay if they traded Bill Hall and another prospect or two for Sabathia. Cleveland is looking for power and Bill Hall can provide that for them, along with being able to play multiple positions, however it doesn't sound as if Cleveland has an interest in Hall.

Fielder is probably going to be traded sometime in the next couple years and Cameron might be gone by next year, so we are probably going to have a need for LaPorta and Gamel in the next couple years. With the way Weeks and Hall have been playing this year, I can see the Brewers either trading Weeks in the next year or two and bringing up Escobar to play second or move Hardy to 2nd, or probably more likely, Bill Hall being traded and the Brewers moving Hardy to third and Escobar playing shortstop. Or, depending on how Gamel is developing as a third baseman, he could end up being the third baseman. I just think those 3 prospects have too much value for the Brewers in the immediate future to trade away for a 3 month rental of Sabathia. If they could sign him to a long term deal, then I may be more open to trading one of the 3, but that is not going to happen.

[trwi7]

Ugh listening to the Doug Russell Show talk about Sabathia is brutal, although I think this is yesterday's show and they're just replaying it. They're saying Gamel is a butcher at third, okay fine. Then the caller goes on to say that Salome has defensive issues as well. Again, we all agree. Then the caller goes on to say that he doesn't want to give up Escobar to which Doug Russell replies, ehh but he's not that good of a defender either or something like that.

 

AHHHHHHHHHHH! Read brewerfan.net more, Doug. You might learn something. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[jjfanec]

Waking up to this is rough to say the least. I dont like the idea of dealing Gamel or LaPorta, but to put Escobar in the deal is just crazy. Even though I would not like it I would be okay with a LaPorta for CC straight up trade but adding Escobar reeks of a desperation trade and those do not work out well in the long term. Please let Rosenthal be wrong like he has been so many other times.

[RyDogg66]

Anyone care to explain how the Indians would end up getting more for 2-3 months of Sabathia than the Twins did for a year of Santana + the guarantee that he signed a long term deal with no other teams in the bidding for his contract??

 

LaPorta and Escobar is nuts. If that is the deal I would be really disappointed.

[kramnoj]

Anyone care to explain how the Indians would end up getting more for 2-3 months of Sabathia than the Twins did for a year of Santana + the guarantee that he signed a long term deal with no other teams in the bidding for his contract??

 

LaPorta and Escobar is nuts. If that is the deal I would be really disappointed.

The Mets were basically the only contenders for Santana at the end, as it appeared that the Yankees and Red Sox were out of it and no other team was willing to spend the money. There wasn't enough competition to drive up the cost of the prospects.

 

There seems to be a fair amount of competition for CC, so it all depends on how desperate teams are in their pursuit of him.

[trwi7]

Please let Rosenthal be wrong like he has been so many other times.

Rosenthal is just relaying what he heard from the two guys he talked to within other organizations who are also competing for Sabathia. The guy wasn't even sure Escobar was part of the deal. He just said he "could" be part of the deal. Rosenthal is just writing down quotes from these guys, he's not saying Escobar is part of the trade.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I am sorry but there is no way I would give up LaPorta in this deal. I would offer some sort of package of Salome, Green, Gillespie and Braddock but that is as far as I would go for a rental. If we were getting Matt cain or Zach Greinke maybe I would trade LaPorta but not for 2 months of Sabathia. LaPorta is the perfect replacement for when Prince is traded this offseason. The best plan would be to trade Gwynn for Maddux and not put all our eggs in this seasons basket. We should resign Sheets and trade Prince next offseason for some good young pitching like Billingsley, Greinke or Cain.

 

If we do all that our 2009 Brewers can have a rotation of Sheets, Gallardo, Billingsley/Cain/Greinke, Parra, Suppan. That would be an excellent rotation. The lineup would have LaPorta in place of Prince and potentially Gamel at some point at third. We can compete for many years to come if we dont trash our system for a rental. Please Doug dont make this deal.

[squambaum]

Considering Doug went on the radio and admitted that there were a few minor leaguers he considered untouchable the inclusion of LaPorta in any deal seems unlikely to me. Add to that the fact that we would be trading two of doug's "big 5" and I just can't believe it. Not only that but we would be trading Escobar who plays middle infield and we currently have two guys at that position approaching free agency that haven't been all that spectacular. (JJ's current hitting streak aside) We have very little organizational depth at either middle infield spot and we trade away our top prospect and our top MI? Why would we do that when we could give them Salome or Brantly who both play positions that we have good depth at? Any combination of two of the big 5 or jefferess is way too much to give up for a 3 month rental of any player.

If that was the proposal I think CC would be a Brewer already as nobody else currently bidding would be able to match that price without throwing in young proven major league players.

[RyDogg66]

Good analysis squambaum, I agree completely.

[razzzorsharp]

Wow, seems like a lot happened last night with no results to show for it as yet.