The CC Sabathia thread: Latest - CC a Brewer! (part 1)

[nate82]

Nate, that seems right, and Boston is more concerned about a bat, because they don't know what to expect from Ortiz.

 

I'm sure Cleveland is trying to pull teams like the Cubs and Phillies into this, but the Brewers certainly do look like the best match.

I really don't see the Cubs as a possible suitor for Sabathia at all the Indians may try to pull them into it but the Indians know they are not going to get a serious offer from the Cubs. The Cubs are not willing to let go of Gallagher so I'm not sure who the Cubs could throw in who could beat the Brewers lowest offer to the Indians. If they throw in Vitters maybe that would kill the Brewers low offer but I don't think the Cubs will do that.

The Cubs if they would offer a Izturis, Pie, Hill, and Patterson at the Indians it still wouldn't be as good as a Gillespie, Nelson, and Dillard but it would be close. If you add Bush or Villanueva to that deal and it kills the Cubs offer completely and the Cubs really don't have much else to give to the Indians other than more depth which is what their original trade would do anyways.

I'm not sure what the Phillies would offer though. I'm not sure they would give up someone like Worth and I don't even know if they even have the prospects to contend with the Brewers in a trade. The Phillies may want to have Sabathia just like the Cubs but I just don't see them as a team who has the prospects to get it done.

 

This maybe another Santana deal that goes down where the Indians get the best available package that fills needs for them. Nelson, Villanueva, Dillard, and Gillespie all fill needs for the Indians. Villanueva could step in right away and start for the Indians and Nelson could step in and be their every day 1B for the next couple of years while Gillespie could be in their lineup next year and Dillard adds a nice bullpen arm for them.

 

To me Boston maybe more concerned about a bat but if they expect Matsuzaka may have more trouble with his health they may get Sabathia now than wait until free agency. To me Boston scares me the most because they can match the Brewers upto the Brewers offering LaPorta and Gamel.

[DHonks]

When I think of LaPorta, I think of him peaking as a Pat Burrell/Jay Buhner type. To me that's someone I'm not afraid to part with in a trade.

 

Hate those Rodents, we could probably get a .260 avg, decent walks, and 20-25 homers out of Nelson at 1b next year. We have plenty of choices at 1b should we deal Prince.

[Fear The Chorizo]

"People so willing to give up LaPorta for CC need to realize there are 25-35 home runs and a decent average from him coming next season as a replacement for Prince, when Prince is dealt for pitching help/prospects. Without LaPorta, you are looking at someone without at least average productivity at first next season. "

 

People so willing to trade Fielder for pitching and prospects need to realize that teams aren't going to ship top tier talent to the Brewers for a ballooning DH that appears deadset on becoming a free agent and has been saying the wrong things for the past few months. I think if the Brewers hold onto Fielder until he becomes a free agent, he will have played the most productive years of his career for the Brewers, and I'll wish him well in free agency and accept draft picks 3 seasons from now. The best value the Brewers can get from Fielder is to keep him on their team and let him be the lefty bat in the middle of their lineup for as long as they control his rights. And while I'm as high on LaPorta's ability as anyone else, assuming he's an automatic 30 HR guy at the major league level the moment he starts playing in Milwaukee could be overly optimistic.

[dadofandrew]

Salome, Gillespie, Braddock, and Dillard might just be enough. I can't see anyone else offering much more, though someone might give two top guys, like the Sox with Lowrie and one other.

[RyDogg66]

zzz and Al are right on. Sub Dillard out for Villanueva, and maybe we can get Borowski or another older bullpen arm coming back as well. Id say Escobar, Gamel and LaPorta are the untouchables. WHy people are even bothering to talk about them is puzzling, as no other major league team has that kind of talent to give, and is willing to give it...why should the Brewers. THe Brewers only just need to beat out the next best team.

 

A deal built around Villanueva and Salome/Brantly would be most likely. THe crazy talk on WSSP this mornning was Prince for 2 months of Sabathia. What are people smoking. Also, Prince wont be traded until after 2009 at the earliest. Attanasio wants to win and Fielder gives us about the best chance. After Laporta proves himself for a year at the plate it could let us move Fielder.

[LouisEly]

I'm very leery of trading a Laporta, Gamel, or Escobar along with adding another good piece or two for only 12ish starts from Sabathia, but i'm pretty damn sure that's hat it'll take

 

Danzig, I'm not sure what you are trying to say. On one hand you are suggesting that it is not a good idea to give up a top prospect like those three for a rental, but on the other hand you are saying that someone will? So you are saying that there are stupid GMs out there who will do this? Are you suggesting that you are a better evaluator of talent than other GMs out there? You say that you shouldn't (thus the trade I propose), but then you say that won't work. You say what they shouldn't do... so what should they do?

 

A couple of things to keep in mind:

1) All GMs look at talent differently. There is almost a Gestapo-esque decree on this board that everyone should look at talent and players the same way, but the reality is not all GMs and scouts do.

2) The Haren and Santana trades are not good comparators, because those teams knew they were getting full seasons out of those players. Not so with Sabathia. He is a two month rental, thus his value is based on about 12 starts. Therefore he will not command anywhere near the haul that was traded for those two. And as others have mentioned, the haul for those two really wasn't that great. There weren't any real sure-fire stud prospects in those deals (as for comparison, Gillespie has put up a much higher OPS in AA than Gonzalez, and Eveland and Smith weren't that highly though of). Just like there is a limited number of teams that would trade for Santana, there is a limited number of teams that will trade for Sabathia.

3) DM himself said that he is looking at "quantity" trades - that from another thread. This fits the bill of a quantity trade.

4) I highly doubt that any team will pony up more than the value of Weeks, Gillespie, and Pena. If it were a full season of Sabathia then I would agree that those three would not get it done, but it is just for two months. No one is going to give up a stud pitching prospect for a two-month rental. Cleveland needs to upgrade 2B, OF, and RP, and ML-ready players carry more value than A-ball prospects. Thus they will think long and hard about Weeks (still has a lot of upside, power, and OBP), Gillespie (his OPS in the Southern League most years would win MVP, but he's overshadowed by LaPorta and Gamel), and Pena (upper 90's with movement). That's a lot more talent that you think it is.

[TheCrew07]

nate82 Wrote:

I wouldn't mind as much if we gave up LaPorta since he is just another RH batter. Jeffress and Gamel on the other hand are both LH

A small correction but Jeffress is not LH, nor does he bat LH.

[wibadgers23]

Just curious what it would take to get Sizemore along with Sabathia?

[TheCrew07]

A deal built around Villanueva and Salome/Brantly would be most likely. THe crazy talk on WSSP this mornning was Prince for 2 months of Sabathia. What are people smoking. Also, Prince wont be traded until after 2009 at the earliest. Attanasio wants to win and Fielder gives us about the best chance. After Laporta proves himself for a year at the plate it could let us move Fielder.

I agree Prince for Sabathia is way way off, however I don't think it's all that far fetched that Prince is moved this off season. His trade value will never be higher going forward than this off season when he's just entering his first season of arby. If LaPorta/Gamel stay and you can plug either at 1B and Prince can net us a James Shields type pitcher (arguably the 3rd best pitcher on his team) or a couple of premium pitching prospects, I think the team is much better off as a whole. I know people are tired of being patient, but looking ahead I think 2010 can be a special season. I as I stated earlier I worry that Mark A. will push too hard to win and Melvin will be forced into some questionable moves.

[sbrylski]

Just curious what it would take to get Sizemore along with Sabathia?

A lucid dream.

 

[And That]

Just curious what it would take to get Sizemore along with Sabathia?

Prince Fielder and Gord Ash's soul.

 

[zzzmanwitz]

Just curious what it would take to get Sizemore along with Sabathia?

Prince + the Huntsville Stars

[wibadgers23]

Just curious what it would take to get Sizemore along with Sabathia?

Prince + the Huntsville Stars

Well, I say we go for it then. These chances don't come along often. Just kidding. I guess I underestimated Sizemore's value.

[tyguy20204]

I wouldn't trade Weeks if I was Melvin. I'm still confident that he can improve to a point where he's an above-average player. Might as well hold on to him at this point.

[splitterpfj]

Buster Olney updates to say Cleveland will open the bidding over the next few days. He lists Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Boston, the Dodgers and the Cubs as the five possibilities.

 

If that turns out to be the case, both Tampa Bay and Boston have publicly stated their preference to add a bat before chasing a starter, Tampa has also increased their focus on Brian Fuentes. If those two teams stay out, I can't see the Cubs matching whatever the Brewers offer, which leaves the Dodgers.

 

AZ's poor play of late has allowed LA to hang around, I wondered if I'd hear of them in this discussion. I'm not sure what LA needs most, is it a starter, or do they need to focus on a bat?

[danzig6767]

Obviously Sabathia would be a great addition to the rotation, but i'm just as concerned with our 7th/8th relief pitchers, neither Mota or Riske inspire much confidence.

[nate82]

Buster Olney updates to say Cleveland will open the bidding over the next few days. He lists Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Boston, the Dodgers and the Cubs as the five possibilities.

 

If that turns out to be the case, both Tampa Bay and Boston have publicly stated their preference to add a bat before chasing a starter, Tampa has also increased their focus on Brian Fuentes. If those two teams stay out, I can't see the Cubs matching whatever the Brewers offer, which leaves the Dodgers.

 

AZ's poor play of late has allowed LA to hang around, I wondered if I'd hear of them in this discussion. I'm not sure what LA needs most, is it a starter, or do they need to focus on a bat?

I'm sorry but there is no way that the Rays will have enough after getting a bat and Fuentes if they even get him. The Red Sox are also looking at Fuentes. The Rays have enough to get all 3 but they are not going to do that. There is no way the Rays trade Price which is what they would have to do to get Sabathia, Fuentes, and Bay/Holliday/Nady. I don't think the Rays are willing to do that because it would clear out their farm system.

 

The Rays and the Red Sox are going to overbid on Fuentes well whoever wins that sweepstakes is going to over pay. The Rays I believe will target Holliday more than Sabathia. Yes Sabathia on the Rays would be nice for them but what they really need is a guy in the bullpen to replace their closer who just went down with another injury. I don't see the Rays as a serious contender for Sabathia at all.

Now the Dodgers could give up someone like Kemp or Broxton for Sabathia plus some other minor league options but would they really do that? I'm not familiar at all with the Dodgers minor league at all so I'm not sure what they have. I believe they have a few pitching prospects? I guess the Phillies have dropped out now? I still didn't get why the Phillies would be in it they really don't have that strong of a farm system.

 

The Red Sox still could add Sabathia especially the way Matsuzaka pitched tonight. It looks like he hasn't fully recovered from his injury yet. A Moss + trade could easily get Sabathia from the Indians. Do we have anything to match that that wouldn't include LaPorta or Gamel?

 

I bet the Cubs get Burnett, the Rays get Holliday and a reliever, the Red Sox get Fuentes, and the Dodgers get Bedard. That leaves the Brewers and another random team in the Sabathia running.

[piccione88]

I would like to see Betancourt added into the deal. He might not cost that much, because he has had very poor results so far this year. He has pitched much better than it appears though. Other than his homerun rate, which is somewhat alarming, his other numbers such as K/G, BB/G are not to far off from what he normally puts up, and his GB% is the best it has been since 2005. I belive he will turn it around, esspecially in the weaker National League, and could be our best reliever for this year, and next year.

 

I would not give up LaPorta, Gamel, or Jeffress, but from what I am hearing we could pull it off without including them. Would a deal of Salome, Green, GIllespie, and Villanueva be enough to get Betancourt, who is under contract through next year, with a 5.4 million club option for 2010, and C.C. Sabathia.

[ELCABALLO45]

I would like to see Betancourt added into the deal. He might not cost that much, because he has had very poor results so far this year. He has pitched much better than it appears though. Other than his homerun rate, which is somewhat alarming, his other numbers such as K/G, BB/G are not to far off from what he normally puts up, and his GB% is the best it has been since 2005. I belive he will turn it around, esspecially in the weaker National League, and could be our best reliever for this year, and next year.

 

I would not give up LaPorta, Gamel, or Jeffress, but from what I am hearing we could pull it off without including them. Would a deal of Salome, Green, GIllespie, and Villanueva be enough to get Betancourt, who is under contract through next year, with a 5.4 million club option for 2010, and C.C. Sabathia.

I agree I would love to get Betancourt. He could be our 8th inning guy.

[ILuvDaBush]

Betancourt would be tantamount to Linebrink last year, so you're giving up Salome (our third best prospect this year, paralleling our #3 last year, Inman) and probably Gillespie for Betancourt, then getting CC for Green and Charlie V? Probably won't happen, since they really don't need a pitcher who can't break our rotation, and theirs would seem to boast better depth. Also, Betancourt is just the type of bullpen arm that is overvalued by their own team, hoping for contention in the near future, which is what Cleveland considers itself doing next year. Rafael Perez might be able to be had, but would he be a sizeable upgrade? As to whether we should punk next year in hopes of this year, honestly, are we that much worse next year compared to this year, because we lose Counsell, Gagne, Mota, probably Kapler, and maybe Cameron and Sheets? Did I mention we'll be toasting Mexico's finest every fifth day, a real bull dog of a Brew? I'll concede that Branyan and, to a degree, Kapler and Kendall, have been playing over their heads, but look at the two teams above us. The Redbirds boast an outfield of Skip Schumaker, Brian Barton, and Ryan Ludwick, and that could supposedly rival ANY OF this side of Arlington? Really? Well if you believe that, then listen to this. Our friendly neighbors to the south boast the greatest rookie catcher outside of Bench and Piazza, while their rookie OF (only in the loosest sense of the word) is going to be starting in the Popularity Game, no doubt because his OBP is higher than any regular on the Brewers. Now I know that it is also grounds for "Going for it" this year, but doesn't that make you think that next year could be even better than this year? It SHOULD be better, just because our players will all be a year older and wiser. Yo for Pres' in 09! Rickie, the VP. The YO! Rickie! Ticket!

[ELCABALLO45]

If Linebrink pitched like he is this year, the Brewers probably would of made the playoffs last year. It was a trade that had to be done last year IMO.

 

And we always say next year will be better (it usually is) but I think we could pull of a deal this year and also be good next year. This is not the late 90's early 00' Brewers.

[piccione88]

"Betancourt would be tantamount to Linebrink last year, so you're giving up Salome (our third best prospect this year, paralleling our #3 last year, Inman) and probably Gillespie for Betancourt, then getting CC for Green and Charlie V?"

 

That is an odd way to look at it. You are giving up four players for two players, not two for one, and two for one. I do not think that Betancourt is worth Salome, and Gillespie, because I do not value relief pitchers that highly. My thinking was that maybe the Indians have lost hope in Betancourt, since he has had very poor results this year, with an ERA over 6, and 4 losses. Betancourt also is not a rental, and in my opinion still could be their best reliver, and could be our best reliever for this year, 2009, and 2010. In my proposed deal, betancourt was almost a throw in, without Betancourt I would have swapped Carlos Villanueva with Luis Pena, and Taylor Green with a Brad Nelson, or Chris Errecart.

 

As for our punking next year, as you call it, I do not think that the majority of deals that dont involve Laporta or Gamel, hurt our chances much at all for next year. Carlos Villanueva was the only guy that I mentioned that would be contributing to the team next year, and I do not see him as having a ceiling higher than a #4, or #5 starter. The Brewers could certainly get by without him, and our system is deep enough to sustain the loss of the Salome, Brantley, and Escobar's of the world.

[ILuvDaBush]

Meant punt. Sorry. It was directed at those who say that 09 should be forgotten. What people forget is that this team should be largely intact next year, and you would hope, be better. The guy who I hold out the most hope for is Rickie. I really don't know what his ceiling is. Everytime someone tries to write him off, he goes off for a frozen rope to put us up. But this isn't the place for that rant. What my main point was with Betancourt is that teams just don't give up their set-up men when they plan on cotending in the near future. They can give up on this year, slightly retool, and come back ready to contend for the AL next fall. But Betancourt is a cornerstone to their contention. He compares well with Scot Shields, except Shields has had more success closing games. And, to be honest, I think we need a pitcher who we control for more than two months, given our economic situation and Sheets. Barring such a pitcher hitting the market, I don't know whether CC would do enough to warrant what it would cost. A few weeks ago, when both us and the Cubs were on our respective tears, would CC have been a difference maker? If we had the early season CC, he would have been a difference maker, for the other team. In the end, much like the Boston Red Sox did with Johan Santana, all we have to do is give the appearance of offering a good amount, hiking up the price past the threshold of what the Cubs can trade, and really, what do they have? The only thing I could think of that might interest them would be The Riot, if he could play 2B for them, and they could switch Cedeno to SS. But really, they would have to prefer one of our big two... "Seriously, we'll give you both! Yup Ellsbury AND Lester. err Gamel and LaPorta. Well really...we can only give you one, but with quite the prospect-pu-pu-platter. Well it's more of a doggie bag. Okay, we'll give you Steve Sollman, and you'll LIKE it." And come October, to be honest, I'd trust Greg the Magi more than CC the Snowman. Really, I'd trust the Soup Kitchen in the NLCS more than I'd trust CC's numbers from last year.

[sbrylski]

Meant punt. Sorry. It was directed at those who say that 09 should be forgotten. What people forget is that this team should be largely intact next year, and you would hope, be better.

 

Ben Sheets is a huge loss.

 

I do not think that the majority of deals that dont involve Laporta or Gamel, hurt our chances much at all for next year. Carlos Villanueva was the only guy that I mentioned that would be contributing to the team next year, and I do not see him as having a ceiling higher than a #4, or #5 starter. The Brewers could certainly get by without him, and our system is deep enough to sustain the loss of the Salome, Brantley, and Escobar's of the world.

 

Our rotation is barely above average right now. We lose our best one in Sheets, and our rotation is now dragging the team down. Sure, the system is strong enough to make this move to get CC, but is it strong enough to pull off another big trade over the winter to find us another starter?

 

It could be, I suppose, and we definitely could be a good team in 2009. But we won't be a great team, and we'll be really digging into our chances of becoming a great team in the future by trying to be a good team in 2009.

[Oldcity]

When I think of LaPorta, I think of him peaking as a Pat Burrell/Jay Buhner type. To me that's someone I'm not afraid to part with in a trade.

Pat Burrell is very good. If the Brewers think LaPorta will be a similar player, he should be a cornerstone.

I'd love to see the Rays get Holliday and the Red Sox get Bay (or vice versa), mainly so the Cardinals don't get either one.