The CC Sabathia thread: Latest - CC a Brewer! (part 1)

[MickeyDavis]

Cain isn't going anywhere.

[Robideaux]

Oakland got six players for Haren and one additional, including two current members of their rotation, and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Is that cheap?

 

 

Gonzalez doesn't impress me all that much. An 800 OPS at AA. Only one minor league season with an OPS north of 900, at A+ ball. Sure, Eveland and Smith have been nice surprises, but how much value did Eveland really have prior to this season? We thought so much of him that we traded him for Vargas/Estrada. Smith had decent minor league numbers, but I doubt he was even considered a top 100 prospect at the time of the trade.

 

The Twins got four players for Johan, including Carlos Gomez.

 

Gomez is certainly toolsy, but he seems destined to become Willy Tavaras (maybe with a little bit more pop). People seem to like Guerra's arm, but 46 K's in 83 innings (with 39 BBs) at A+ this season doesn't bode well for his ability to miss bats at higher levels.

 

In my opinion, LaPorta (or to a slightly lesser extent Gamel) seems like much more of a sure thing than any of the guys in those other trades. They were more of the pu-pu platter variety. That doesn't even take into consideration that neither of those team's were trading for a rental. If a platter of Brantley, Green, and Gillespie can get it done, count me in. As far as I would be concerned, LaPorta, Gamel, Salome (if they think he can stick at catcher), Jefferies, and Escobar are all untouchable for a player not signed beyond this season. Of course, my opinion doesn't mean diddly (though Doug if you are reading this, I'd be happy to share my expertise). I want to win now, but I don't want to punt next year to do it.

[endaround]

I've said it before but Santana had a no trade clause-he would only waive it for an extension. So the only teams that could trade for him were teams that could pay him $22m per year. Basically the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets. Anybody can trade for Sabathia. There are just more buyers.

 

And neither Haren nor Bedard came cheap.

 

And yes Sabathia isn't signable for the Brewers. Sheets probably could be had at $18m AAV for 5 years. Sabathia wants $22-24m AAV for 7

 

My problem with trading for Sabathia is then if they don't resign Sheets there is little left to trade to put together a rotation for next year. Basically its 2008 or bust.

 

Eveland=Parra. Great stuff but coming off injury. The fact that the Milwaukee coaching staff didn't like him didn't mean Eveland was Ben Hendrickson.

[dadofandrew]

There will be a trade market for SP's this winter, just like always. And, if they are going to have a chip like Rickie or JJ available, decent SP will be expected back.

[Bankjob]

Interesting Note from SI.com today regarding trading for the "Missing piece" to a contending team.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/07/02/verducci.storylines/index.html?bcnn=yes

4. The fallacy of the one-player-away theory. Look at the biggest trades of the offseason: The Twins traded Johan Santana to the Mets, the Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers, the Orioles traded Erik Bedard to the Mariners and the Athletics traded Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks. Each of the teams that dumped the star player has a better record than the team that gave up young talent to get him.

If you asked me today however I would still want to make a swap. I am convinced we will get it done without Gamel or LaPorta.

[Robideaux]

LaPorta and Gamel aren't just prospects who project as Major League starter or regulars, both of them have the real potential to become All-Star caliber hitters. I think both will eventually be better hitters than what Corey Hart and Ryan Braun are doing right now.

[Oldcity]

I'm not convinced they should give up LaPorta or Gamel, much less one of their major league starters in addition. He's a two month rental!

 

I don't think there's a chance in heck we get Sabathia without giving up one of these two guys plus other chips...

You're probably right, and if that's the case, then so be it. I hate the idea of moving one of those two or Jeffress for two months of a pitcher, no matter how good he is.

 

[Oldcity]

Cain isn't going anywhere.

Probably for another thread, but why not? The Giants have no offense to build around. Lincecum, sure, he's not going anywhere. I can definitely see Cain going for three or four players though. They have needs everywhere.

 

[jjfanec]

I've said it before but Santana had a no trade clause-he would only waive it for an extension. So the only teams that could trade for him were teams that could pay him $22m per year. Basically the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets. Anybody can trade for Sabathia. There are just more buyers.

I agree with on this to a point. How many more teams do you really think are in the running for CC? With Santana it was about payroll size with CC it is about quality in the farm system. The Brewers and Rays are head and shoulders above the other competition I have heard about. Unless a team like the Cubs who dont have a lot of top end prospects give up something crazy. The Red Sox could get in the mix and then they would have a lot of trading chips with their young pitching. The Yankees dont seem to have a ton. The Dodgers are rumored and could put some decent guys out there. The reality is there is not a huge pool of teams vying for his services. Maybe two more than were vying for Santana. While that may drive the cost up some it shouldn't make it crazy. Some of the teams rumored will drop out and go after Burnett or someone else, and then one darkhorse might emerge. I just dont think it will become a huge bidding war.

 

Edit - I forgot the Phillies and I have no idea what they have in terms of prospects. If they do have top-end prospects and Boston and Tampa (who has been rumored to not be in the mix) get in the mix then the price will jump. However, if Boston decides their fine our they won't part with their young pitching, and Tampa decides a big bat is more important then I think the Brewers can get a good deal.

[nate82]

You're probably right, and if that's the case, then so be it. I hate the idea of moving one of those two or Jeffress for two months of a pitcher, no matter how good he is.

 

I don't think you have to give up a Jeffress with a LaPorta or a Gamel. I believe the Brewers could get away with either Villanueva or Bush being added into the trade. Not an ideal option though I wouldn't want to see Bush or Villanueva go but if we land Sabathia I wouldn't mind as much. It would still hurt the Brewers especially if Villanueva is the one that goes. Remember Sabathia is going to be replacing someone in the rotation. More than likely it will be Bush and I'm not that confident in Bush being a good bullpen guy like I am with Villanueva.

 

[zzzmanwitz]

Brewers give:

Salome

Dillard

Gillespie

Braddock

 

Indians give:

Sabathia

Low Level IF prospect

 

Book it.

[Oldcity]

zzz, I'm not sure if that gets it done, but I wouldn't want to offer much more than that, so I like it. Nate, I actually meant I didn't want to give up any one of Gamel, LaPorta or Jeffress, much less a package.

[nate82]

zzz, I'm not sure if that gets it done, but I wouldn't want to offer much more than that, so I like it. Nate, I actually meant I didn't want to give up any one of Gamel, LaPorta or Jeffress, much less a package.

I wouldn't mind as much if we gave up LaPorta since he is just another RH batter. Jeffress and Gamel on the other hand are both LH. Both give more value to the team than LaPorta does. I really don't want to give up LaPorta just to have Sabathia but if it means going to the playoffs and having a chance to make the World Series this year then I will dump LaPorta and take Sabathia.

 

It is really hard to get into the World Series. There hasn't been a repeat winning team in the World Series for a very long time. I believe the Brewers could restock even after trading away LaPorta + for Sabathia. If it means the playoffs with Sabathia this year that means a lot more revenue for the Brewers this year. Which means we could sign either Sheets or Sabathia to a long term deal.

 

[zzzmanwitz]

This is what happens every year though it seems, and more and more, teams are less willing to give up top prospects, especially for rentals. I really don't see the Brewers giving up Laporta or Gamel and the Rays aren't going to give up Price.

 

Unless the Cubs sell the farm, I really see a deal of this nature being the best offer Cleveland gets.

[splitterpfj]

zzz, I think you're right in the ballpark of what would actually happen. I'll just say not Gamel or LaPorta, but a Huntsville player, with Braddock and one more for CC, with perhaps one more guy each way.

 

Right now, I think the Indians are trying to set the bar as high as they can, while they try to draw in as many teams as possible. Who can blame them?

[CportBadger]

More from Verducci's article ...

 

Top Second Half Stories

1. The C.C. Sabathia sweepstakes. You may not have to wait too long. Cleveland will probably pull the trigger on a deal soon, having narrowed its list of matches to four teams, with two others still in the running as contingencies. And it's not far-fetched to think that non-traditional buyers such as the Rays, Brewers and Phillies will be in the bidding.

I don't know if the Brewers win this battle or not, but my guess is he's dealt in two weeks. I agree with what others have said that this may not take as much as feared because of the cash we'd save the Indians. With Nelson's revival this season, does he now carry some value, since he could help out right now at 1B for them?

 

Would Salome, Nelson, and Braddock do the trick?

[sbrylski]

Seeing just how much Sabathia is asking for in extension talks (he wants Santana money), put a damper on this. I liked thinking we would have a chance to resign him or Sheets. But assuming we won't or won't be able to, I would take a Sabathia trade as punting on 2009:

 

That all changes if we are able to resign Sheets or CC in the event of a trade. But if DM and Mark A are smart about 2009, I'm all for gunning it for CC this season.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say, are you okay punting 2009 for a better chance at the playoffs this year?

I'm saying we should punt on 2009 if we are going to make this trade. And yes, I'd be okay with it, I think punting on 2009 will make us a better team in the long run whether we make the trade or not. We've developed into a slightly above average team without any real strong pitching now or in the near future. Continuing to trade off prospects to hold our pitching head above water will run us into 6 years of 85 win baseball and then blam, we gotta blow it up again. We can do it once in a while, but then spend some time to recuperate a little, don't try to force wins out of your system. I'm not suggesting Marlins, just at times we can tone it down to a .500 ballclub or a 78 win team if its going to help us the next four years.

 

[Oldcity]

If they "punt" next year, that probably means Fielder is traded this off-season as well. I'm not so sure they'd throw in the towel, but it would be a very different team. They'd probably still have the chance to be pretty good though, IMO.

[sbrylski]

If they "punt" next year, that probably means Fielder is traded this off-season as well. I'm not so sure they'd throw in the towel, but it would be a very different team. They'd probably still have the chance to be pretty good though, IMO.

I agree that Fielder would go, I said so in my earlier post.

And yes, the chance is there to be good, but at the expense of another trade to fix the rotation. Suddenly our second wave of offense isn't looking quite so great.

[Oldcity]

Sorry, missed that in your post. That next wave would be mostly gone, but they'd control guys like Hart, Hardy, Weeks, Yo, Parra long enough to get another wave up in time for the departure of those they decide not to keep.

[nate82]

The Brewers still have the best offer for Sabathia with or without LaPorta or Gamel in the deal. I still think a pitcher is going to have to be thrown into the deal either Bush or Villanueva will be traded I'm guessing it will be Villanueva. A deal that sends Gillespie, Nelson, Villanueva, and Dillard would get the job done for Sabathia and a throw in player and it would be better than anything the Cubs could put together and the Phillies could put together unless both would be selling off the farm.

 

I really don't see the Rays trading their minor league pitching for Sabathia. I believe the Rays are going to use that depth to land someone like Bay, Nady, or Holliday. The only other team that could match us with any offer short of a LaPorta/Gamel and a Salome/Escobar/Gillespie or any other player would be the Red Sox.

[sbrylski]

Sorry, missed that in your post. That next wave would be mostly gone, but they'd control guys like Hart, Hardy, Weeks, Yo, Parra long enough to get another wave up in time for the departure of those they decide not to keep.

Maybe, as long as we continue to draft well. I just think we'll be stretching the limits of our draft picks and payroll to field a top team consistently, and it might be better to ride 3-5 year waves. (Again just to be clear, not full blown Marlins. We should actually lock up the guys we can as we have been starting to do.)

 

[splitterpfj]

I really don't see the Rays trading their minor league pitching for Sabathia. I believe the Rays are going to use that depth to land someone like Bay, Nady, or Holliday. The only other team that could match us with any offer short of a LaPorta/Gamel and a Salome/Escobar/Gillespie or any other player would be the Red Sox.

 

Nate, that seems right, and Boston is more concerned about a bat, because they don't know what to expect from Ortiz.

 

I'm sure Cleveland is trying to pull teams like the Cubs and Phillies into this, but the Brewers certainly do look like the best match.

[Hate those Rodents]

What are their long term plans for Victor Martinez? Is he going to stay at catcher for more than another year or is he looking at either departing Cleveland or moving to 1B or DH?

[Hate those Rodents]

People so willing to give up LaPorta for CC need to realize there are 25-35 home runs and a decent average from him coming next season as a replacement for Prince, when Prince is dealt for pitching help/prospects. Without LaPorta, you are looking at someone without at least average productivity at first next season.