We all Know Braun's Having a Great Year, but what about his OBP?

[endaround]

"Sure if you completely ignore the context of his post."

 

Amazing how Brawndo, Logan and Mother may not have agreed with me, but they're capable of debating me politely. But when I dared to copy-n-paste an excerpt from endaround, *boom!* here comes his buddy, Ennnnnder to get all worked up, and make it personal. *sigh*

Only in Geno's world are Ender and I buddies and pointing out his taking something entirely out of context a personal attack

 

[Glennron]

Until just now, Braun had more BB's this year than Hart. I'm not saying it means Braun doesn't have to walk more, but it's interesting to see Hart is also a pretty free swinger.

[TooLiveBrew]

They're quite similar (imo) in terms of approach. To this point, Corey's been the more disciplined batter, I think. He just doesn't chase quite as wildly as Braun. That said, it's been nice to see Ryan take a better approach at the plate recently. I firmly believe that Braun will be a perennial > 50-60 BBs kind of player as he 'grows up' a bit.

[logan82]

Until just now, Braun had more BB's this year than Hart. I'm not saying it means Braun doesn't have to walk more, but it's interesting to see Hart is also a pretty free swinger.

Sorry to pick on you, but this sort of illustrates why it is bad to use counting stats instead of rate stats. Hart has maintained a higher OBP than Braun for most of the year. Some of that is BA, but Hart still has a higher BA/OBP split than Braun.

[Glennron]

Until just now, Braun had more BB's this year than Hart. I'm not saying it means Braun doesn't have to walk more, but it's interesting to see Hart is also a pretty free swinger.

Sorry to pick on you, but this sort of illustrates why it is bad to use counting stats instead of rate stats. Hart has maintained a higher OBP than Braun for most of the year. Some of that is BA, but Hart still has a higher BA/OBP split than Braun.

I agree you need to look at rates, but before Monday's game Braun has walked in 5.03% of his PA's, and Hart 4.97%, I don't really see any difference.

[logan82]

Glennron wrote:

I agree you need to look at rates, but before Monday's game Braun has walked in 5.03% of his PA's, and Hart 4.97%, I don't really see any difference.

The only difference I see is Hart has been HBP 4 times and Braun twice. I guess the only real difference is that Hart strikes out less and Braun SLG's more. Hart is only 52 points of OPS behind Braun.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Only in Geno's world are Ender and I buddies and pointing out his taking something entirely out of context a personal attack "

 

Nah, for years now, it's just been my imagination.

 

When have you 2 ever disagreed on ANYTHING? Hell, you're probably the same person. And when was the last time I commented to one of you, without the other jumping in and making it 2-on-1?

 

I wrote that you made it personal. But I never said it was a full-blown attack, ferchrissakes. Now who's being sensitive?

 

Re-read the thread. As I said, I was able to debate with others who disagreed, and we were cool. All I'm sayin'...

[Darnell Junior]

Just read all five pages. Summing up my thoughts, Braun's .330 OBP isn't nearly good enough to be considered elite. However, at 24 years old and always talking about looking for way's to improve, I'm confident he'll get that up a significant amount in the next few years. A team of Prince's beats a team of Brauns. A team of Johnny Damons THIS YEAR beats a team of Brauns. Take all this with a grain of salt if you don't agree, as I'm a man who views OBP very highly. Not making an out is the surest way to score runs in baseball, and OBP is just a measure of how often a batter doesn't make an out, obviously.

 

I think the part about regression values being higher in slugging than OBP is very interesting. The same goes with K's vs. SB's and Doubles vs. Triples. It just goes to show that as reliable as they can be sometimes, statistics can also be misleading. K's usually correlate to higher Slugging. Many stolen bases come from one man on two out situations, in my experience. This is an instance where the SB helps the situation most definately, but since the situation isn't a very prosperous one to begin with in terms of runs, it will most likely bring down the correlation between stolen bases and runs.

 

Basically all I'm trying to say in that wordy second part is, you can't really measure a players performance by one statistic. They can be a bit misleading, especially with a game as variable as baseball. Thats why you can't just look at Marky Mark's HR in the 1998 season and say that was the best season ever. It's usually not as obvious as that mediocre example but hopefully you all get what I'm trying to say.

[Invader3K]

Basically all I'm trying to say in that wordy second part is, you can't really measure a players performance by one statistic. They can be a bit misleading, especially with a game as variable as baseball. Thats why you can't just look at Marky Mark's HR in the 1998 season and say that was the best season ever. It's usually not as obvious as that mediocre example but hopefully you all get what I'm trying to say.

Definitely get what you're saying, and I agree 100%. Like I said hinted at earlier, you can probably take any player, find one stat where they don't excel and say "He's not very good at ______". Doing so with a 24 year old player is even more dicey.

 

[logan82]

Invader3K wrote:

like I said hinted at earlier, you can probably take any player, find one stat where they don't excel and say "He's not very good at ______". Doing so with a 24 year old player is even more dicey.

The thing is that the stat being talked about is one of the main few stats used to evaluate a player. We aren't talking about some obscure or specialized stat. I am not sure what his age has to do with anything. Most people think he will improve. He is just really deficient at it right now.

[lukevan]

I don't know if I'd say deficient as his OBP is right around league average. His slugging makes him above average by a fair margin.

[logan82]

League average OBP is .330 in the NL. That includes pitchers. A corner outfielder in the NL has a .342 OBP in left and .348 in right. "Really deficient" was an overstatement, but he is below average. Despite his SLG, it is hard for me to think of a guy with a below average OBP as a very good player.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204012

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204011

[lukevan]

Well, his 162 game average OBP is at .351 according to baseball-reference. Ryan got off to a slow start and has seen his OBP steadily increase. I'd have a hard time not considering Braun a very good hitter (127 OPS+ so far this season).

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, it's a great time to be a Brewers fan -- we can discuss whether or not our players are "Very Good" or "Elite"!

 

I don't think anyone in this thread isn't a huge Ryan Braun fan -- just some people pointing out that he's not quite top-tier... yet. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[logan82]

Well, his 162 game average OBP is at .351 according to baseball-reference. Ryan got off to a slow start and has seen his OBP steadily increase. I'd have a hard time not considering Braun a very good hitter (127 OPS+ so far this season).

My mistake. I was under the impression that we were only talking about this year not any part of last year when his stats were inflated by a freakishly high LHP split.

[zzzmanwitz]

My mistake. I was under the impression that we were only talking about this year not any part of last year when his stats were inflated by a freakishly high LHP split.

I don't think its fair to cherry pick 3 months of stats and totally disregard his numbers last year. Really at this point, he hasn't had enough at bats to make any sort of generalization of what he will be in the future.

[logan82]

I am not making any generalizations about his future. I am only making judgments about how I feel about his play this year. If I was trying to make generalizations about his future I would use all his stats, not just cherry pick his last 162 games.

[Postseason2006]

Braun you stink. Your career OBP is higher than Milwaukee's only lifetime player HOF robin yount.

[kramnoj]

Braun you stink. Your career OBP is higher than Milwaukee's only lifetime player HOF robin yount.

 

Are you familiar with baseball-reference.com, the best website ever? An average player who played in the parks and in the offensive conditions that Yount played in had a .326 OBP, meaning Yount's was 16 points higher. For Braun, the average player is .341 compared to his .353, so his is 12 points higher. Also, his career OBP is dragged down by his first few years in the league, when he was a below average offensive player.

[Fatter than Joey]

Yount was a GGer at a premium position. Braun was a hack at 3b.

[logan82]

Yount was a GGer at a premium position. Braun was a hack at 3b.

2 different premium defensive positions no less.

[Postseason2006]

So was Ozzie Smith, but Ozzie was a complete hack at the plate. Your point? Braun had moved from a number of positions so far is his career and already had put up better offensive hitting numbers than Yount could ever dream of.

[Postseason2006]

who played in the parks and in the offensive conditions that Yount played in had a .326 OBP, meaning Yount's was 16 points higher.

Are you telling me places like Tiger stadium and Fenway are pitcher friendly? I don't see the point of what the parks have anything to do with what you are arguing...

[kramnoj]

who played in the parks and in the offensive conditions that Yount played in had a .326 OBP, meaning Yount's was 16 points higher.

Are you telling me places like Tiger stadium and Fenway are pitcher friendly? I don't see the point of what the parks have anything to do with what you are arguing...

 

Well, you mention only two visiting parks, so I'm not sure this is much of an argument. But I included park effects because I wanted to be accurate in describing what adjusting for context means. Comparing Yount and Braun is much more important to look at the context of the run environment in which they played. As an extreme example, an average player who played where Yount played in 1981 had an OBP of .314! Yount's OBP that year was .312, so he was below average that year, but he made up for it by slugging .419 when an average player only slugged .364!

 

Edit:

 

So was Ozzie Smith, but Ozzie was a complete hack at the plate. Your point? Braun had moved from a number of positions so far is his career and already had put up better offensive hitting numbers than Yount could ever dream of.

Both of these statements are wrong. Ozzie Smith had an above average on base percentage for his career. Not just above average for position, but above league average.

 

Regarding Yount, you should really check out his career, especially 1982 http://www.baseball-reference.com/y/yountro01.shtml That year Yount's OPS+ was 166 compared to Braun's 153 OPS+ last year. Yount in 82 had a line of .331/.379/.578. That would be a very good line today, especially for an up-the-middle player. It is quite amazing when you realize that an average player only had a line of .257/.320/.392.

[Fatter than Joey]

So was Ozzie Smith, but Ozzie was a complete hack at the plate.

 

False. Ozzie never demonstrated a ton of power, but he was a very competent offensive player. Ozzie BB'd about 2x as much as he K'd over his career, and had a couple of seasons where he was top ten in OBP in the NL. Ozzie could get on base.

 

Again, Ozzie never hit a lot of HRs -- but he contributed to the offense, and the notion that he was "a complete hack" is patently false.

 

Your point?

 

My point, is that you are comparing Braun's OBP to players that played SS. You should be comparing it to guys who played 1b, or corner OF spots. Also, you can't compare 1982 to 2007 without some sort of normalization.

 

Braun had moved from a number of positions so far is his career and already had put up better offensive hitting numbers than Yount could ever dream of.

 

Again, False. Yount won 2 MVPs -- In 1989 he had an OPS+ of 152, in 1982 he had an OPS+ of 166. --

 

In 1982 Yount led the AL in Hits, SLG, TB, OPS, RC, and the list goes on. Yount was the best offensive player in the AL in 1982.

 

Braun had an amazing 2007. Yount had a better 1982, and did so playing arguably the hardest position on the field. Getting that sort of production out of your SS position in 1982 was a huge advantage the Brewers exploited.