We all Know Braun's Having a Great Year, but what about his OBP?

[Ennder]

" So would a team of Johnny Damon's do better than a team of Ryan Braun's from an offensive perspective?" - Tuesdays

 

"Yes, if you mean this year. Damon's RC/27: 7.39. Braun/s RC/27: 6.57" - endaround

 

If baseball were played in a computer simulation, yes. But since it's not, I think 99% of the players, coaches, executives, writers and fans would take a team of Ryan Brauns over a team of Johnny Damons.

 

This is a classic example of a hole we non-Sabremetric types can drive a Hum-Vee through, in the counter argument. Thanks for inadvertently helping us out! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

The rest of the year, I'd bet real kaysh money that a team of guys who hit like Ryan does would be better suited to keep up the hitting pace, and win a lot more games, than Damon, who is off to a great start, and less likely to sustain this pace of his.

 

Focusing on Ryan Braun's OBP, while he's excelling at his primary offensive duties, is like looking at ESPN's Erin Andrews when she's on camera, and complaining about her voice when she does a sideline report.

 

Sure if you completely ignore the context of his post. But like he said if Damon does this all year a team of Damon's would be better.

[mothershipconnection]

Say a leadoff type guy has a .400-ish OBP, with a .400 slugging %, and his teammate's a cleanup hitter has a .300-ish OBP with a .500 SLG %.

 

I'd take the first player every time all else (defense, baserunning, etc) being equal. Slugging is great, but you don't accomplish anything as a team unless you get on base (other than a few solo homers). Stat heads will tell you every point of OBP is worth far more than a point of SLG.

[cwolf2012]

"This is a classic example of a hole we non-Sabremetric types can drive a Hum-Vee through, in the counter argument. Thanks for inadvertently helping us out!"

 

Your point is that everyone in baseball would take Ryan Braun, but they'd be wrong. Just because many people believe something is true doesn't make it so. Braun is a flashy player who makes it seem like he is better than he actually is. He comes off as a superstar, but he's really more of just a well above average player. The hole you can drive a truck through has two linebackers in it.

[kramnoj]

Braun is a flashy player who makes it seem like he is better than he actually is. He comes off as a superstar, but he's really more of just a well above average player.

 

You may be going for hyperbole to make you point, but I don't know how you can back up what you are saying. Braun is probably a top 5 leftfielder in the majors so far this year with offense and defense considered. And considering that one of the left fielders ahead of him is Damon, Braun is likely to move up a notch come season end.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'll take an above average player that hasn't hit his ceiling yet. We still haven't seen the best of Ryan Braun. I would agree with the point that Damon is having a better year to this point, but Braun the Basher is a franchise player in the making.

[logan82]

That's why I look at the makeup of the lineup first, before just going for the higher OBP guy, automatically. Just my 2 centavos...

 

I wouldn't look at lineup position only because I think where you hit in a lineup is as dependant on the quality of the other players on the team as anything that you would do as a hitter. I think I understand what you are saying that you look for different things from different spots in the order.

[cwolf2012]

You may be going for hyperbole to make you point, but I don't know how you can back up what you are saying. Braun is probably a top 5 leftfielder in the majors so far this year with offense and defense considered. And considering that one of the left fielders ahead of him is Damon, Braun is likely to move up a notch come season end.

There are at least 6 outfielders in just the NL who have better (meaningful) statlines than Braun right now. I know it's just semantics, but when I think "superstar," I think of top 10 player overall. Braun is not a top 10 player right now (not that I think he isn't a very good player, nor that he is incapable of being a top 10 player) by any standards except fantasy baseball stats. Braun is my favorite position player in the league, but that doesn't mean I don't see him for what he is.

 

[kramnoj]

cwolf2012, your whole point is that Braun isn't yet a superstar? Are you refuting someone who said that?

[cwolf2012]

You quoted me on 2 statements.

 

1) Braun is a flashy player that makes it seem like he's better than he is, and

 

2) That he is perceived as a superstar because of his flashy offense, to which I contend that he is not a superstar.

 

You claimed I used hyperbole. As such, I can only think it applies to the part that you quote. Since I feel that it applied much better to #2, then I went with it and explained myself. You claimed he was a top 5 LF. I said that he was not even in the top 6 in the NL for corner outfielders. I don't understand what the issue is here.

[kramnoj]

I couldn't understand why you would call Braun well above average as opposed to good or very good. Calling someone who is at the top 5 of their position well above average seemed odd to me. It seemed like you were going out of your way to not call him good, and say he wasn't a superstar, when nobody in the thread recently said he was.

[Postseason2006]

cwolf,

 

Who are those "6" you are claiming? Braun walked a few times this weekend and made some defensive plays but it's still not good enough?

 

I am guessing that even with Braun's first 162 game stats, which were higher than nearly every all-time great, there are those that still have to nitpick on this guy who signed a deal that was cheap compared to what other players are compensated. Sheesh...

[rluzinski]

Braun: .292/.328/.576/.904

Fielder: .292/.380/.528/.908

 

As long as we can agree that, as their stat line currently stands, a team of Fielders would score more runs than a team of Brauns, I think we are on the right track.

 

Braun is still just a pup, so I think he has plenty of time to learn to be a bit more selective. Of course, if he just continued to do what he's already done this year, he's still a very valuable player.

[endaround]

The fact that Braun right now is closer to Soriano than to Bay doesn't make him bad, just not as good as some other players.

[TooLiveBrew]

Who are those "6" you are claiming? Braun walked a few times this weekend and made some defensive plays but it's still not good enough?

 

I am guessing that even with Braun's first 162 game stats, which were higher than nearly every all-time great, there are those that still have to nitpick on this guy who signed a deal that was cheap compared to what other players are compensated. Sheesh...

 

What about objectivity makes you upset? I don't think sayting that there are 6 corner OF better than Braun to this point is anything but fact right now. Yes, the difference is not big, but I just don't think that Ryan is at an elite status just yet. Cwolf is as big a Brewers & Braun fan as you'll find, but he's not blinded by homerism. The contract Braun signed doesn't have any bearing. It's an objective discussion, not 'ripping' him.

[sbrylski]

Focusing on Ryan Braun's OBP, while he's excelling at his primary offensive duties, is like...

 

Every hitters' primary offensive duty is to not make an out. The quality of your non-outs comes second everytime...

 

But don't you consider the offensive roles the 2 players fall into?

 

...regardless of the role they play. A single with a runner on second (a couple .400/.400 teammates) scores just as many runs as a flyout and a solo HR (.300/.500 guys). There is no prime balance or method of scoring runs.

[kramnoj]

I don't think sayting that there are 6 corner OF better than Braun to this point is anything but fact right now.

 

What stats would you use to support that? Braun is currently 6th in all OF in Runs Created according to ESPN with 53.3. Ahead of him are Josh Hamilton, who is primarily a CF, Nate McClouth who is a CF, Grady Sizemore who is a CF, Pat Burrell and Jason Bay. So there are only two corner OFs having better years than Braun so far. When you add that Braun's defense is 7th in LF so that it's a positive and not a negative, I don't think there are 4 corner OF who are passing him with their defensive contributions.

[TooLiveBrew]

When you add that Braun's defense is 7th in LF so that it's a positive and not a negative

 

I don't trust any of the defensive metrics on their own (as in, individually). Braun has been average to above-avg. out there imo -- a lot better than most thought he'd be, but certainly not 7th best in all of MLB. We've seen all kinds of defensive studies to this point, and I don't think that any one has been much better than a starting point for accuracy. That's just my opinon, though.

 

THT has Braun as the 7th-best NL OF (5th-best corner OF) in terms of RC, so I think different versions are being used. Just for another example, in GPA, THT has Braun ranked 8th of NL OF (6th-best corner OF). Now, that's just the NL. I just don't think saying that he's not a top-6 corner MLB OF this season is off-base. It's a narrow distinction anyway, so I don't understand why some are so offended when it's discussed. So what if he isn't top-6? He's been a joy to watch this year. To say that he's not a top-6 corner OF so far doesn't mean anyone thinks he's overrated or that anyone is selling him short.

 

 

EDIT: For reference, Ryan is ranked 15th among MLB corner OF for GPA, per THT's stats page. That's about the 'tier' that I personally though he was in or near, but I just checked now. A top-20 corner OF just in terms of hitting. As kramnoj alluded to, Braun probably jumps a bit overall due to not being Manny or Dunn on defense.

[kramnoj]

Braun has been average to above-avg. out there imo -- a lot better than most thought he'd be, but certainly not 7th best in all of MLB

 

How would you know he's not the 7th best LF defensively in the majors? You don't get to see enough of other teams to really know that, do you?

 

For reference, Ryan is ranked 15th among MLB corner OF for GPA, per THT's stats page. That's about the 'tier' that I personally though he was in or near, but I just checked now. A top-20 corner OF just in terms of hitting.

 

The one thing that GPA doesn't take into account is playing time. Runs Created does.

[TooLiveBrew]

You don't get to see enough of other teams to really know that, do you?

 

That's a circular argument -- how do you know, because ESPN told you? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I see enough games (have Extra Innings) that I can confidently say he's very likely not the 7th-best fielding LF in all of MLB.

 

 

The one thing that GPA doesn't take into account is playing time. Runs Created does.

 

That's fine -- RC backs up the statement that he's not top-6 as well. I cited GPA since it's regarded as being more accurate (albeit only slightly) than RC, iirc. In either event, the two are so close that it's hardly worth splitting hairs -- the only guy ahead of Braun that didn't have 'full-time' playing time was StL's Ryan Ludwick, and even he's pretty much a regular.

[kramnoj]

That's a circular argument -- how do you know, because ESPN told you

 

No, that's not a circular argument. I use ZR because people that study defense say that it's the best easily available defensive play by play statistic. People like MGL, Chris Dial, SG at replacementlevel, etc.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think 'best available defensive metric' certainly doesn't = 'accurate defensive metric'. I'd expect you would hold yourself accountable for watching 'enough' games to be able to say that you think the ZR corellates with what you see around the league, too, if you want to hold someone accountable that is skeptical.

 

Back to Braun, it seems pretty clear that he hasn't been a top-5 or 6 guy this season, but that's fine by me. I love watching a guy that doesn't have the hulking slugger's build (I'm thinking of Ortiz, Dunn, Burrell, etc.), but that is just raw as all-get out. (Branyan fits this bill for me, too, fwiw). I fully hope he will get voted to start the ASG, and that he can keep up his fantastic production in the second half of the season, too.

[cwolf2012]

I think defensive metrics are reasonably reliable over the course of a few season for infielders, but the outfield is a totally different story. I think in time something will come around that is accurate, but variance over time seems higher for outfielders than infielders.

[kramnoj]

I think defensive metrics are reasonably reliable over the course of a few season for infielders, but the outfield is a totally different story. I think in time something will come around that is accurate, but variance over time seems higher for outfielders than infielders.

 

Variability in and of itself isn't a sign that the metric is flawed. Player's defense can vary throughout a season and through a career. People who study defense say that you often need two seasons of play to get a true sense of a player's ability. That's not a flaw of the metrics, it just means that most plays that are made are routine, and there aren't enough non-routine plays to get a big enough sample to accurately judge a players ability.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"Slugging is great, but you don't accomplish anything as a team unless you get on base (other than a few solo homers)."

 

Perhaps, Mother, but how many times, back in the dark days of 2002 or so, did the Brewers get clowns like Brady Clark on base, and stranded him there, because there wasn't enough slugging to cash him in?

 

Give me 2 guys hitting doubles, and you get a run scored. But if you have 2 hitters drawing walks...hell, make it 3 walks, with no additional help to drive them in, and you got nuffin'.

 

It cuts both ways, I guess.

 

"Sure if you completely ignore the context of his post."

 

Amazing how Brawndo, Logan and Mother may not have agreed with me, but they're capable of debating me politely. But when I dared to copy-n-paste an excerpt from endaround, *boom!* here comes his buddy, Ennnnnder to get all worked up, and make it personal. *sigh*

[kramnoj]

But when I dared to copy-n-paste an excerpt from endaround, *boom!* here comes his buddy, Ennnnnder to get all worked up, and make it personal. *sigh*

 

What was personal in that, other than pointing out that you wrote it? Also, do you really not know how many "n"s are in Ennder, or is this you putting in a shot against another poster?