We all Know Braun's Having a Great Year, but what about his OBP?

[Tbadder]

I love that Braunie has turned it around. He and Sheets are shoo-ins for the All-Star game and rightfully so. I also completely dig Ryan's contract. In a cynical, get whatever you can world, it strikes a balance between individual success and community/fandom hopes and wishes.

 

Having said that, anyone check out Braun's OBP recently. Yesterday's newspapaer had it at .319. Any cause for concern? Any indication that teams aren't quite as afraid of him as we think. Does it mean he's more of a mistake-hitter (a damn good one for sure) than a smart hitter? It seems that most teams are willing to let Ryan go on a fishing trip low and away, and that he's shown a propensity to swing at that pitch enough over the course of this season, that a small problem is developing (Am I overanalyzing?)

 

And could this be the reason that he's gone to a shorter bat? To force himself to lay off that pitch. Whadda think?

[JJ Hardy Har Har]

His OBP in May was .355 and is .351 for his career. I'm not sold he can't be a little more patient yet.

[lcbj68c]

Being a 3 hole hitter...no. As long as he keeps SLG with RISP, I could care less how many walks he draws.

[RU Rah Rah]

I don't understand why teams throw strikes when he's at the plate. I honestly don't. I guess they're afraid of walking him and having Prince come up with a man on, but, man, I'd take my chances with nibbling and having him diving after that down-and-away pitch.

[RightFieldCoder]

Maybe he doesn't walk because he's so good at hitting the strikes that are thrown. Someone like Branyan will get more walks simply because 3TO will swing and miss, giving the pither more opprotunity to throw balls.

[endaround]

Nope, Braun just isn't that disciplined of a hitter. Braun's OBP was higher in May because he hit .322 not due to him increasing his walks a great deal.

[JohnBriggs12]

You don't mess with success. He became the hitter he is being aggressive. I get a little aggravated when he swings at ball four (which he does fairly often), but I'd still leave him alone.

[bernieh]

Objectively, a .319 OBP is not good. But subjectively, where one might take it as cause for concern, I almost look at it optimistically as likely room for improvement. If opposing pitchers do catch on and stop throwing him strikes, I have a good amount of confidence that he'll learn to adjust and start taking those walks.

 

I think he's the exact opposite of a mistake hitter. He gets base hit after base hit on balls nowhere near the strike zone, a la Vlad Guerrero. Is that necessarily a good thing? I dunno. But those are pitchers' pitches he's whacking.

[JoeHova]

The difference is that Vlad rarely strikes out, hits for a higher average, and takes more walks than Braun does. He has a much better eye than Braun, and correspondingly a better chance of making contact. Vlad swings at literally almost every pitch in the zone, but few (despite his rep) outside of the zone. Braun is more indiscriminate in his hacking- he doesn't wait for a strike like Vlad does.

 

also, I don't think Braun's having a great year yet. He's doing very well, but a sub-.900 OPS from a left fielder is hard to characterize as "great", imo. His poor first month is still holding his numbers back.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, it depends on how you define "great." His power is certainly great. Overall, I want more from Braun. He's way too undisciplined.

[bernieh]

I didn't say he IS like Vlad, I said his ability to crush balls out of the zone is like Vlad's. And he's only 24.

 

Aside from that, I agree with everything else you said.

[sbrylski]

Vlad swings at literally almost every pitch in the zone, but few (despite his rep) outside of the zone.

 

Er, except for the fact he leads the league in swinging% on pitches outside the zone by 5% over the 2nd placed Soriano.

 

Braun is more indiscriminate in his hacking- he doesn't wait for a strike like Vlad does.

 

Braun swings at 10% less pitches outside the zone, and 15% less inside the zone, than does Vladdy.

 

The reason Guerrero walks more is because he's getting over 10% more balls than Braun is - a number than one would think would go down quickly the longer Braun keeps sending them into the stratosphere. I think Ryan's approach is already decent enough to see his OBP climb into the .350-.370 range as time goes by. If he develops a better eye/approach at the plate, he could mature into a fully rounded superstar that the plate.

 

Edit: I didn't say he IS like Vlad, I said his ability to crush balls out of the zone is like Vlad's.

 

Vlad is like 50th in contact out of the zone (this is where the public perception is a little off) and Braun is like 115th. They may have power outside the zone, which is probably what you're talking about, but in just making contact, they swing and miss about the average amount.

 

Disclaimer: The percentages I used were all from this season, though they are about in line with both player's numbers over the past 2-3 years.

[Glennron]

He seems to have even less discipline when he's in high pressure situation, ie a couple guys on late in a close game. If he doesn't swing at the first two pitches it's almost a miracle. If he could ever become a Vlad-like hitter I'd be very happy. He's only 23 so I'm pretty confident his discipline will get better. Obviously I doubt he'll ever be like Berkman or Helton in that he walks 100 times a year, but if his OBP is 50/60 points higher than his average that'd be fine I think.

[Bucky Rules]

He has a much better eye than Braun, and correspondingly a better chance of making contact. Vlad swings at literally almost every pitch in the zone, but few (despite his rep) outside of the zone. Braun is more indiscriminate in his hacking- he doesn't wait for a strike like Vlad does.

Do you have some statistical evidence to support that Vlad swings at few pitches outside the zone? I'm not trying to be smart in asking that, I'm seriously curious. Because I've seen Vlad play a fair share, and he is without a doubt one of the best bad-ball hitters I've ever witnessed. The guy hits balls nowhere near the strikezone, and punishes them.

 

My opinion is solely based on what I see when watching Vlad (and not much within the last couple of years of his career). But, I think he's just a freak of nature.

[sbrylski]

Do you have some statistical evidence to support that Vlad swings at few pitches outside the zone? I'm not trying to be smart in asking that, I'm seriously curious.

 

Look two posts above yours. Guerrero leads the league in swinging at pitches outside the zone at 44%.

 

EDIT: Here's the link. (Sort by O-Swing%)

[JoeHova]

I saw different numbers then. I guess this is why this kind of analysis is still in its infancy, the numbers don't even agree with each other. Oh well. I just thought it was interesting that Vlad only sees about 10% of his strikes looking, but overall sees a league average % of strikes.

[JoeHova]

however, now I realize that that could mean nobody throws him an actual strike ever. I feel stupid now.

[RU Rah Rah]

If he develops a better eye/approach at the plate, he could mature into a fully rounded superstar that the plate.

That's what's scary (in a good way, if you're a Brewer fan).

 

[Bucky Rules]

Look two posts above yours. Guerrero leads the league in swinging at pitches outside the zone at 44%.

Thanks! So my eyes failed me while reading this thread. But, they worked while watching Vlad. I can live with that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

[davego]

Good point made above in the fact that this is what this kid is doing with about 13-months in the bigs. I'm going to assume he will do nothing but inprove the next few years. Maybe his OB% will be the one gap in his game...We will see.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

When a guy has 20 home runs by mid June, I think that complaining about a .319 OBP would be nitpicking. Ryan Braun can be the #3 hitter on my team any day of the week.

[logan82]

I would prefer Fielder as the #3 hitter so that there are people on base when Braun hits. I would actually prefer Fielder #2, but that's not going to happen.

[kramnoj]

Braun is currently 8th in the NL in slugging. Yes, his OBP is not acceptable for an elite hitter, but I have read that slugging has correlated higher to runs than OBP in the last few years. Braun has been a special player so far, I don't have much doubt that he will eventually be able to combine his ability to hit for contact and power with the eye to take walks when he doesn't get a good pitch to hit.

[sbrylski]

I have read that slugging has correlated higher to runs than OBP in the last few years.

 

Where have you read this? (Sincere curiosity.)

 

(We should get a color for "sincere curiosity," like blue is for sarcasm.)

[logan82]

I have read that slugging has correlated higher to runs than OBP in the last few years.

 

Where have you read this? (Sincere curiosity.)

 

(We should get a color for "sincere curiosity," like blue is for sarcasm.)

I would like to know as well since that is completely opposite of the OBP being worth 1.6-2 times as much as SLG I have read about and been presented with on this site.