Should we start the Braun-o-meter?

[jaybird2001wi]

With Ryan Braun being slated to be in Brewers blue for the next 7-8 years and with his power numbers, he could be the most likely candidate to break several team hitting records that could be well within reach, most notably the franchise home run record set by Robin Yount at 251.
I did some calculations and here is what he could be within reach of and also within reasonable reach to make the top 10 in each category, I utilized baseball-reference.com's 162-game average to calculate his projections:

Key:
Braun's current stats
How much remaining to top 10 and current 10th All-Time record holder
Projection at end of eighth season

Hits:
Braun - 229 Hits (162-game average: 204)
Remaining: 771 hits (1,000 career Brewer hits by Jeff Cirillo)
Projection: 1,632 Hits (5th All-Time behind Yount, Molitor, Cooper and Gantner)
Projected year of 1,000th hit: End of 2011 season (Age: 27)

Doubles:
Braun - 44 career doubles (162-game average: 39)
Remaining: 133 doubles (177 career doubles by Charlie Moore)
Projection: 312 Doubles (4th All-Time behind Yount, Molitor and Cooper)

Triples:
Braun - 9 Triples (162-game average: 8)
Remaining: 12 triples (21 triples by Darryl Hamilton and Ben Oglivie)
Projection: 64 Triples (3rd All-Time behind Paul Molitor and Robin Yount)

Home Runs:
Braun - 54 Home Runs (162-game average: 48)
Remaining: 80 home runs (134 home runs by Don Money)
Projection: 384 Home Runs (1st All-Time in Brewer history)
Projected Year of Record-Breaker: Mid-2012 season (Age: 28)

RBI:
Braun - 152 RBI (162-game average: 135)
Remaining: 373 RBI (525 by Jeromy Burnitz)
Projection: 1,080 (2nd All-Time behind Yount)

Runs:
Braun - 133 runs (162-game average: 118)
Remaining: 373 Runs (506 by Jeff Cirillo)
Projection: 944 (3rd All-Time behind Molitor and Yount)

Just for curiousity -
Stolen Bases - 21 stolen bases (162-game average: 19)
Remaining: 59 stolen bases (78 by Jose Valentin)
Projection: 152 Stolen Bases (3rd All-Time behind Yount and Molitor)

SINGLE-SEASON, according to current 162-game averages:

Braun has the potential to be the single-season franchise leader in both Home Runs and RBI.

[Tedaldtada]

Well done my man. I just really love Ryan.

[steve11]

i heart me some braun..... this is a nice composition of numbers... good to see, easy on the eyes (the numbers)... so... what's branyan's pace home run-wise this year http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[zzzmanwitz]

Remember, he's 24 years old. We can pretty much assume he's going to improve.

[bcf5575]

this gives me a very bad feeling because i think this is way too premature. he has been a major leaguer for just over a year now and as awesome as he has been, he is not yet Yount or Molitor - 1 great season does not make a career.

 

Should we start the braun-o-meter? NO! Lets enjoy the ride for a while and start worrying about this kind of stuff in 2013...

[zzzmanwitz]

Should we start the braun-o-meter? NO! Lets enjoy the ride for a while and start worrying about this kind of stuff in 2013...

 

I'm guessing we'll at least have a HR count by then... since he's due to pass it in 2012.

[M Skjellyfetti]

I'm more worried about his putrid OBP than what kind of records he may break 8 years down the line. He really needs to work on that to be anything more than a Jeff Francoeur.

[zzzmanwitz]

^^^^ what a downer...

[homer]

Francoeur isn't even close to Braun offensively. .252/.301/.416

[TooLiveBrew]

M Skjellyfetti is just so used to dominating in softball... Braunie's numbers do not impress him http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[M Skjellyfetti]

True, I should have said a Jeff Francoeur with more power. Francoeur does have a much better walk rate than Braun this year, though. Also, his BABIP is well below his career numbers, so one would guess that his average will climb.

[pogokat]

Francoeur sucks...albeit it a little older, braun's first couple seasons look a lot more like vladimir guerrero's...

 

his walk rate is low...but it's not crippling...he's highly likely to gain at least some obp skills as he is in the league longer...

 

he's not alex rodriguez at the moment, but he's got historic power for a young player, and that is being played down way to far by a handful of posters..

[homer]

He's like Francoeur with power and a batting average.

[Postseason2006]

Braun start walking more.

[BrewCrewForever]

Until Braun walks more many just seem like they won't be satisfied. Sure I would love to see him walk more, but if he contines to hit for power and in the .290's how can you really complain?

[twobrewers]

I would be pretty surprised if Braun didn't break Yount's record for HR.

Honestly, the Brewers HR record is pretty sad. How many teams have as long of a history as the Brewers with such a low number?

(I can't believe anyone would be down on Braun for not walking enough. He is only in his second year with a consistent .900 OPS. Talk about picking at nits)

[TooLiveBrew]

Sure I would love to see him walk more, but if he contines to hit for power and in the .290's how can you really complain?

 

I think a lot of the debate from the Braun/ASG thread got painted as 'complaining' or 'dissing', but I really don't think that was the case... just some harsh objectivity. I certainly don't complain about Braun's production, but that's not the same as trying to determine if he's been a top-3 OF in the NL this season. Just some comments that got taken the wrong way and/or overblown, imho. I doubt there's a Brewers player that's much more-loved than Braunie at this point, and deservedly so.

[bullox]

It's like having a supermodel girlfriend and complaining that she can't make a decent steak.

[jaybird2001wi]

Honestly, the Brewers HR record is pretty sad. How many teams have as long of a history as the Brewers with such a low number?

 

- The New York Mets franchise has been around nine years longer and their All-Time leader in homers is Darryl Strawberry with 252, just one ahead of Yount. That and Piazza is second with 220 homers.

Also keep in mind that pretty much ALL other team records of the Brewers trumps the Mets All-Time leaders in each category.

 

- With exception to Mike Schmidt's 548 homers with the Phillies, the next highest is Del Ennis with 259 homers.

- Yount's 251 career homers bests the Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos team leader Vladimir Guerrero's 234 homers.

- Johnny Bench's 389 leads the Reds' franchise.

- One interesting note is Todd Helton is the Rox all-time leader with 310 and counting.

- And look at the Padres' All-Time leaders in homers:

Home Runs

Rank	Player		HR		PA
1.	Nate Colbert		163		3485
2.	Phil Nevin		156		3297
3.	Dave Winfield		154		4512
4.	Tony Gwynn		135		10232
5.	Ryan Klesko		133		3333
6.	Ken Caminiti		121		2351
7.	Benito Santiago		85		3065
8.	Fred McGriff		84		1623
9.	Steve Finley		82		2640
	Carmelo Martinez		82		2694

- Also take a look at the Indians' leaders in the long-ball department:

 

Home Runs

Rank	Player		HR		PA
1.	Jim Thome		334		5723
2.	Albert Belle		242		3922
3.	Manny Ramirez		236		4095
4.	Earl Averill		226		6708
5.	Hal Trosky		216		4853
6.	Larry Doby		215		5082
7.	Andre Thornton		214		5095
8.	Al Rosen		192		4374
9.	Rocky Colavito		190		3700
10.	Ken Keltner		163		6280

Royals:

 

Home Runs

Rank	Player		HR		PA
1.	George Brett		317		11624
2.	Mike Sweeney		197		5278
3.	Amos Otis		193		7969
4.	Hal McRae		169		7361
5.	Frank White		160		8467
6.	John Mayberry		143		3752
7.	Danny Tartabull		124		2684
8.	Carlos Beltran		123		3512
9.	Steve Balboni		119		2201
10.	Bo Jackson		109		2010

[twobrewers]

Thanks for the numbers Jaybird.

 

That is about what I expected. (No surprise to see San Diego listed)

[TooLiveBrew]

It's like having a supermodel girlfriend and complaining that she can't make a decent steak.

 

That's the thing -- no one was complaining. This is exactly what I'm talking about.

[bullox]

It's like having a supermodel girlfriend and complaining that she can't make a decent steak.

 

That's the thing -- no one was complaining. This is exactly what I'm talking about.

Semantics. People talking about what they see as a flaw and wanting it to not be a flaw is complaining in my opinion.

 

Anywho, this is a nice set of numbers you put together Jaybird, thanks for doing the legwork. It's pretty interesting to think about.

 

[homer]

This whole Braun OBP thing has gotten out of hand. It is a flaw plain and simple. Is it a huge flaw given his propensity to hit home runs and hit for average? Probably not - certainly not as big a flaw as his defense was last year. But it is a flaw and in some people's eyes that lowers his value relative to other guys that play the same position.

[TooLiveBrew]

People talking about what they see as a flaw and wanting it to not be a flaw is complaining in my opinion.

 

Well then we'll have to agree to disagree. Wishing my team's players will improve their weaknesses certainly isn't the same as complaining to me.

[Glennron]

It's like having a supermodel girlfriend and complaining that she can't make a decent steak

I know this is basically a joke but that's not really true at all. It's more like having a supermodel girlfriend and "complaining" she doesn't have the prettiest face. "Not making a decent steak" would equal "not many bunt hits."

The fact is getting on base is a very important part of offense. Just brushing over his bad OBP is like saying, "Well Parra has pretty decent K rates and doesn't give up a lot of home runs, so I'm okay that he walks a lot of guys."