Braun v Fukudome - VOTE NOW FOR THE ALL-STAR GAME (merged with Braun 4th in All-Star voting)

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers would have had 20 extra base runners AND about 28 extra ABs on the season. That's not irrelevant.

 

This is absolutely a valid point, and yes, OBP is the one area of his offensive game that Braun needs to work on. If he ever becomes more selective, his potential is almost unbelievable.

 

I did cast my 25 votes for Braun though.

 

Why?

 

He's now within 2 of the league HR lead, and within 7 of the league RBI lead. That's not irrelevant either.

[jeffy]

I just don't like the whole fan voting thing.

 

I don't mind fans getting to vote, what I don't like is the structure of the fan voting. What I would like to see is the fans of each team get to elect one player to the all-star team and my version of fan voting would allow fans to select a pitcher if they choose to. Were this the system, clearly Sheets would be the Brewer fan selection. This would be a better way to meet the mandate of at least one player from each team and would avoid the game becoming the Yankee-Sox vs. the NL.

[rluzinski]

Also, I can see people objecting to looking at the value of someone's perfomance based on the "average situation". For All Star voting, many fans want to know the context and direct result of a player's performance for a given season and that's not unreasonable. In that case, I might use something like runs produced (R + RBI - HR). Here are the leaders this year:

PLAYER	TEAM	runs Prod
Carlos Beltran	NYM	88
Nate McLouth	PIT	87
Ryan Ludwick	STL	83
Ryan Braun	MIL	77
Xavier Nady	PIT	75
Jason Bay	PIT	74
Carlos Lee	HOU	72
Kosuke Fukudome	CHC	70
Pat Burrell	PHI	69
Jeff Francoeur	ATL	69

Close but no cigar. But as fans, we really don't care about runs, we are about wins, right? Braun hitting that 2 run shot last night in the 8th was nearly valueless, correct? So maybe we shoudl be using smething like WPA (win probability added). You just find the diffierence between the odds of a team winning their game before and after a player's AB. Add up all those little differences for each PA and you get WPA. Here you go:

Fangraphs Link

Name	Team	WPA
Pat Burrell	Phillies	4.40
Jason Bay	Pirates	2.81
Matt Holliday	Rockies	2.49
Ryan Ludwick	Cardinals	2.33
Kosuke Fukudome	Cubs	1.87
Nate McLouth	Pirates	1.76
Adam Dunn	Reds	1.56
Xavier Nady	Pirates	1.54
Jeremy Hermida	Marlins	1.40
Fred Lewis	Giants	1.37
Ryan Braun	Brewers	1.34
Carlos Lee	Astros	1.26

Wow, Braun only 11th. All those outs probably hurts him here.

It's tough to make Braun among the 3 most valuable NL outfielders by any objective measure. Of course, that doesn't mean I don't want you guys to vote for him anyway.

[Postseason2006]

This is THE All-Star game not the county parade where we watch people walk. Tell me how many fans are looking to watch McClouth walk to first vs Braun hitting a monster homerun to any field?

 

2nd, McClouth bats leadoff and the guys job is to get on base. According to the OBP factor, Ric K Weeks is a better choice for the All-Star game over Braun then? Sheesh.

[rluzinski]

Tell me how many fans are looking to watch McClouth walk to first vs Braun hitting a monster homerun to any field?

 

McClouth and his crappy .560 SLG should stay home! BooOOooOO! On pace for 35 HR? You suck! HAHA OMG!

 

According to the OBP factor, Ric K Weeks is a better choice for the All-Star game over Braun then? Sheesh.

 

Either you are purposely distorting the argument to make an easy target or you aren't grasping what's even being argued here. Either way, you can do better.

[Postseason2006]

Wait a minute there, it's people like you that are using OBP as "the deciding factor". If you look at all the stats objectively Braun is 2nd in homers, 5 in RBI's, tied for second in tripes, 3rd in in total bases, has an OPS of .908 which IS OUTSTANDING. Put down the Evian and labtop.

 

BTW mods, I thought personal attacks were not allowed?

[rluzinski]

Wait a minute there, it's people like you that are using OBP as "the deciding factor".

 

Read the thread and stop wasting my time.

[Postseason2006]

Wait a minute there, it's people like you that are using OBP as "the deciding factor".

 

Read the thread and stop wasting my time.

Pass over my post. I am looking for logical posters that can explain to me why OBP should matter in an All Star game?

[MickeyDavis]

For All Star voting, many fans want to know the context and direct result of a player's performance for a given season...

 

 

Actually I think very few fans care about that when casting their vote. If they did the results would be much different than they are now.

[Oldcity]

2nd, McClouth bats leadoff and the guys job is to get on base.

Any hitter's "job" is to get on base. It's literally the most important thing for a hitter to accomplish. Some just do it better than others

...has an OPS of .908 which IS OUTSTANDING.

Yesterday, when we were debating this topic, Braun ranked 10th among NL outfielders in OPS.

[homer]

Wait a minute there, it's people like you that are using OBP as "the deciding factor".

 

Read the thread and stop wasting my time.

Pass over my post. I am looking for logical posters that can explain to me why OBP should matter in an All Star game?

No one said it should matter. All Russ is saying is that he has a different way of valuing/voting for players than other people do. If you want an all star game to be a beauty pageant, vote for the pretty stats.

[bball123h2]

Wow. I posted this figuring I'd pass along information, not create a cesspool of OBP. Vote for whomever you like. I see the game as an exhibition, and it would be fun to see a Brewer starting again, so I'm voting Braun. Maybe I need to move this to the political thread...

[cwolf2012]

Pass over my post. I am looking for logical posters that can explain to me why OBP should matter in an All Star game?

I think we're coming from two different sides of the coin here. The "statheads," if you will, are arguing that while Braun has had a very good season (.908 OPS is great) , several other players have had far more productive seasons overall (Burrell, McLouth, Ludwick, etc) just by the numbers and overall effectiveness for their teams. He probably has the numbers to be a top 3 OF in a different season. This season, though, there are guys who are better. The way I perceive it, you're coming from a more of an "I enjoy the action of the game" kind of perspective, which is absolutely okay, in which Braun tends to be far more entertaining than a player like Pat Burrell. The allstar game is not about who is actually playing the best, it's about who the majority of fans want to see. I may not agree with that, but it is what it is.

 

Ryan Braun is my favorite baseball player in the entire world. I voted for him 25 times. If you asked me to objectively say whether or not I thought he was in the top 3 overall outfielders in terms of production rates and what I consider to be the more important stats, I would say absolutely not. OBP is generally coorelated(sp?) with 1.8x as many runs produced as SLG. If I had my choice, I would drop 50 points of Braun's SLG to add 30 points of OBP. But if my choices for Braun are 80 points of SLG or 20 points of OBP, I would take the SLG for sure.

 

Now, please don't take me wanting him to walk more as me wanting him to walk instead of hitting a home run at a 1-1 rate. A home run is the absolute best outcome for any plate appearance. But if you offer me him talking 3+ walks instead of one HR and 2+ outs, especially with Fielder and Branyan behind him, then I would take it.

[MJLiverock]

Wait a minute there, it's people like you that are using OBP as "the deciding factor".

 

Read the thread and stop wasting my time.

Wow. Sorry anyone wastes the mighty rluzinski's time by disagreeing with him. I have seen nothing in this thread showing any superiority of having Braun walk more, your own post seem to say it is a wash if he walked more and hit for less power. I know I have seen many of the walk disciples admit a hit is more valuable than a walk so why expect Braun to hit less and walk more? Braun walks then roughly 63% of the time Prince will follow up with an out and after that the 5 hitter for the Brewers is going to make an out roughly 67% of the time so Braun's ability to hit the ball, advance runner ahead of him more than one base or even advance guys with 1st base open would be an advantage to walking, seeing the next guys make outs, not advance anyone or walk as well, not score runners and continue to leave the job of driving in the runner to lesser and lesser quality hitters. A walk is not bad, but in some situations it really isn't that great.

 

I know guys that drive in runs get poo pooed on this board all the time - - see the Carlos Lee comments but if the 3,4,5 hitters can't do it they leave it up to the lesser hitters in the bottom of the lineup and we see all the frustrations of leaving runners on base, excessive walks by the run producers can lead to this sure the OBP will go up but will any more runs really be scored since the driving them in will be left up to the weakest hitters on the team since not all hitters are equal or average. We have all seen the lead off double followed by a walk, pop out, walk, K looking while trying to draw the walk, and a ground out by weak hitter with no runs despite a .500 OBP for the inning when a hit instead of a walk would have scored a run.

 

Is there any sort of study showing excessive walks just leads to a lot of stranded runners on the bases, espcially if the better hitters are they guys walking a lot and leaving the run drivers up to the poor hitters who pitchers aren't afraid to challenge and hitters who when they swing the bat have poor batting averages. The effect of walking the best hitter cannot be straightlined as an effect on other hitters since the ability of the other guys to drive him in is not equal.

 

Even with Adam Dunn's .400 OBP he has scored 4 less runs than Braun and his .325 OBP. Dunn has also knocked in 12 less runs despite being only 2 HR's less than Braun.

 

 

 

 

[lcbj68c]

No one said it should matter. All Russ is saying is that he has a different way of valuing/voting for players than other people do. If you want an all star game to be a beauty pageant, vote for the pretty stats.

And I think the other guy is just saying that he is not going to be so shortsighted to look at one stat...and ignore 9 others. just guessing.

[cwolf2012]

I want to stress this again for the people who are opposing the stat-heavy people. We aren't looking at just OBP. OBP is just one part (albeit a very important part) of a big equation. The reason it is stressed so heavily is because he is doing so poorly at it, and it is a very important stat to total team production. There is something to be said for counting stats, but most of them rely heavily upon your teammates, and not you.

 

EDIT:

 

"Even with Adam Dunn's .400 OBP he has scored 4 less runs than Braun and his .325 OBP. Dunn has also knocked in 12 less runs despite being only 2 HR's less than Braun."

 

The problem with Dunn isn't him, it's the lineup they've put together. Dusty Baker has little to no knowledge about modern baseball analysis, and relies on old timey crap. Dunn fits best in the 3 spot, ahead of Phillips and probably Griffey. That way he can drive in the highest OBP guys that hit in front of him with his HRs, and allow the other guys who aren't as talented at getting on base but can hit the ball very hard to move him around when he walks.

 

EDIT 2:

 

If you care to read about how OBP and SLG are related, check this link out. I was wrong in my earlier estimation of 1.8x as important. It's actually more around 1.6. But anyhow, that's related to total team OBP and SLG, and not individual players. Utilized correctly, the extra SLG could probably generate a few extra runs over the expected value, but still not be worth as much as OBP.

[nate82]

You are voting on the player not the team so OBP to me doesn't really make sense to me to decide a vote for a player in the All Star game since you are not voting on the team but the player. OBP helps the team out more and you are counting on your teammates to hit you in compared to HR's which is more of a player stat than a team stat.

 

To me anything that is a team stat shouldn't be looked at when determining an all star player since it is about the player and not the team really.

[lcbj68c]

Now, please don't take me wanting him to walk more as me wanting him to walk instead of hitting a home run at a 1-1 rate. A home run is the absolute best outcome for any plate appearance. But if you offer me him talking 3+ walks instead of one HR and 2+ outs, especially with Fielder and Branyan behind him, then I would take it.

 

This is the most rational I've seen it worded yet. However, from a 3 hole hitter, I'll take the HR and 2 outs over 3 walks. Especially since the 1 & 2 hitters should be on base when the HR is hit. And considering it's the All-Star Game, I'll definitely take the HR, which I thought was what this whole discussion was about.

[Invader3K]

It seems like "He doesn't walk enough" is the ultimate cookie cutter argument when someone wants to criticize a player for his offense. I've even seen in levied against A-Rod on this board. Some guys just hit more than they walk. Not every guy can excell in every single offensive stat.

[LouisEly]

OBP is definitely more important. You only get 27 outs in a game. A hitter's main job should be to not use one up, and right now Braun is bad at not making outs.

 

Is there any sort of study showing excessive walks just leads to a lot of stranded runners on the bases, espcially if the better hitters are they guys walking a lot and leaving the run drivers up to the poor hitters who pitchers aren't afraid to challenge and hitters who when they swing the bat have poor batting averages. The effect of walking the best hitter cannot be straightlined as an effect on other hitters since the ability of the other guys to drive him in is not equal.

 

Braun increasing his OBP is not going to get Braun more ABs. It will get guys behind him more ABs. That may mean Fielder, Hart, and Branyan right now, but it also means giving more ABs to Hall, Hardy, Kendall, Counsell, and the pitcher's spot. And I'm not sure that giving more ABs to Hall, Hardy, Kendall, Counsell, the pitcher's spot, TGJ, Dillon, Weeks, etc., would be more productive than Braun putting the ball in play. Like others have said, OBP isn't very useful if you don't have run producers behind you. Fielder has been heating up the last month, but the first month and a half of this year when Branyan wasn't here, Fielder and Hart were in a power drought, and Hall and Hardy were stinking it up, I'm not so sure that it would have been more productive for him to draw a walk than put the ball in play. In fact, for a good chunk of that first month and a half Fielder was hitting ahead of Braun, which meant that behind him was Hart, Hall, Hardy, the pitcher, and Kendall (and no power-hitting lefty). Again, not sure that getting on base for those guys would have been more productive than putting the ball in play.

 

And I think the other guy is just saying that he is not going to be so shortsighted to look at one stat...and ignore 9 others.

 

11th in BA, 10th in runs, 1st in hits, tied for 6th in doubles, tied for 3rd in triples, 1st in HRs, tied for 2nd in RBI, tied for 17th in steals (only one behind McLouth, a leadoff hitter), 3rd in slugging. Sure, his OBP isn't great, but he's in the top 20 in every category except walks, in the top 10 in every category but walks and steals, and 1st in two categories. Add into that his production in the 2nd half of last year (.309/.358/.618) - dude set the rookie record for SLG in a season! - and he should be in the All-Star game if not starting.

[brewerguy71]

This is such a great discussion! There is a similar discussion taking place right now on the Milwaukee Brewers Message Board site and it brings up many of the points being made here.

 

We shouldn't forget about stats like Runs Created or RC/27 or Win Shares when making the argument for or against Ryan Braun.

 

At best, Ryan Braun would be tied for 9th in Win Shares (THT hasnt updated the site yet today), he is 4th in Runs Created, 11th in Runs Created/27 outs and 7th in OPS among National League Outfielders.

 

I have him currently ranked at about the 5th or 6th best NL outfielder, behind Burrell, Ludwick, Bay and McLouth.

 

I think he is just the victim of circumstance in this "all star" race for NL outfielders. Even if he had stayed at 3B this year, he would wind up battling Chipper Jones, who also has better "stathead" numbers (MVP type numbers even).

[Oldcity]

I have seen nothing in this thread showing any superiority of having Braun walk more, your own post seem to say it is a wash if he walked more and hit for less power.

Where have you seen anyone in this thread say they want Braun to hit less or for less power? We just want walks in addition to the hitting.

 

Also, A-Rod walks a ton. It's one of the reasons that he's so great.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Braun increasing his OBP is not going to get Braun more ABs. It will get guys behind him more ABs.

 

But if the guys behind Braun get more ABs, then he does too.

 

I personally am shocked with the amount of venom that objectivity is being met with here. Just because someone says they think Braun is not one of the top 3 NL OF this season doesn't mean we need to drag them before the Committee on Un-Brewerian Activites.

[Glennron]

11th in BA, 10th in runs, 1st in hits, tied for 6th in doubles, tied for 3rd in triples, 1st in HRs, tied for 2nd in RBI, tied for 17th in steals (only one behind McLouth, a leadoff hitter), 3rd in slugging. Sure, his OBP isn't great, but he's in the top 20 in every category except walks, in the top 10 in every category but walks and steals, and 1st in two categories. Add into that his production in the 2nd half of last year (.309/.358/.618) - dude set the rookie record for SLG in a season! - and he should be in the All-Star game if not starting.

 

Someone pointed out yesterday (before Braun's huge game) that he was 10th in the NL in OPS among outfielders. That's only "one" stat, but it uses extra-base hits/slugging in the equation, which takes up 4 of the stats you pointed out. He also obviously had a great second half of last year, but that shouldn't have anything to do with this year's voting, otherwise Fukudome would be ineligable right now. I still believe Braun should make the All-Star game as a reserve, but I can't honestly make myself believe he's been one of the three best NL outfielders to this point.

[jeffy]

It's tough to make Braun among the 3 most valuable NL outfielders by any objective measure.

 

If you are just looking at stats for the season to date, isn't the sample size too small to be meaningful? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

The current reality is that, based on the stats you present in your tables, at least 2 of the top three vote getters for OF are currently less deserving than Braun. How deserving are Griffey and Soriano, if we are basing things on this season? Do any of those who rank above Braun in your tables have a realistic hope of catching Griffey?