Braun v Fukudome - VOTE NOW FOR THE ALL-STAR GAME (merged with Braun 4th in All-Star voting)

[logan82]

JJHardy7[/b]]I know you're into the stats and I appreciate that, but if we simply break it down to getting on base to get runs to me that really negates power.

I don't think anybody is ignoring his power. As I stated earlier, 1 point of OBP is generally considered to be worth 1.8-2 times as much as 1 point of SLG. Figuring it that way drops Braun way down on the list of OF's. Also there are at least 3 guys with a SLG higher than Braun who also carry a respectable OBP.

 

Edit: I am not trying to convince people not to vote for Braun, just stating that I wouldn't and why. If he was even close to the top few guys I would vote for him, but right now there are several guys that are head and shoulders better. His OBP is so bad he barley cracks the top 30 outfielders with it.

[Oldcity]

Anyone trying to rationalize McClouth over Braun based on OBP needs some major help.

Care to back this up? We aren't talking about who we'd rather have on our teams, we're arguing who's had the better season. McLouth has a higher OPS, higher OBP and is a much better defender.

 

[ELCABALLO45]

Anyone trying to rationalize McClouth over Braun based on OBP needs some major help.

Care to back this up? We aren't talking about who we'd rather have on our teams, we're arguing who's had the better season. McLouth has a higher OPS, higher OBP and is a much better defender.

 

 

Braun has more Homers, RBI's, higher SLG%, and more hits. Braun's OBP is pretty bad tho but I still think Braun is having a better season.

[Glennron]

Anyone trying to rationalize McClouth over Braun based on OBP needs some major help.

I don't see how. Before tonight McLouth's SLG was 8 points higher than Braun's, so I'm sure now Braun's is maybe just a bit higher, making it a wash. McLouth's OBP is about 70 points higher, which, to me, makes him a better player at this point than Braun. I'd personally go with a starting OF of Burrell, Ludwick and McLouth, and reserves of Dunn, Bay, and Braun.

[LouisEly]

Ryan Braun and his 10 total bases tonight would like to tell everyone who doesn't think he should be in the All-Star game to put it in their collective pipes and smoke it.

 

And it's not just this season, because you have to give some consideration to the 2nd half of last year because it really isn't right to select an "All-Star" team based on less than a half season of play. The NFL doesn't have their Pro Bowl mid-season.

[rluzinski]

If Braun's OBP was .350 it probably wouldn't lead to as many runs as his pure power does.

 

Take away 50 points of SLG and add 30 points of OBP and it would be expected to in an average situation, yes. Whether it actually would have based on the base/out situations Braun has actually seen this year, I don't know. I know that Prince would have more RBIs if Braun got on base more, though.

Anyone trying to rationalize McClouth over Braun based on OBP needs some major help.

 

While you've obviously spent a lot of time constructing that very compelling argument, I'm just not quite swayed yet.

 

Like I've already said, even if I don't think Braun's performance this year is among the top 3 or 4, I still would like to see him starting in the All Star game. Honest!

[ELCABALLO45]

Nobody votes for the all star game on OBP...

[wildbobu]

I don't understand you people really obp should be keeiping Braun ouf of the allstar game even though every other stat is screaming he is an allstar? and someone here really said the Muscle should make it now I:m a huge Muscle fan but he has 56 freaking at bats this seaon, I belive if he was 56 for 56 that still doesn't deserve an all star selection. but ryan braun does deserve a selection not for obp but for average, hr, rbi, hits and every other offensive caterogry but if you are against brewers in the all star game then go ahead vote for someone else.

[pitchleague]

Braun has more Homers, RBI's, higher SLG%, and more hits. Braun's OBP is pretty bad tho but I still think Braun is having a better season.

not to mention the Brewers are winning games which makes it just a little bit better season.

In my opinion, stat heads are going to lose out to the general public who want their all-stars to be good in the "big-name" statistics like AVG., HR, RBI, and ERA, K, and W for pitchers. Joe Public really doesn't care about OBP. Steve Everydayfan doesn't care about ERA+. Charlie Football fan doesn't care about RC. Guy SmileycauseIgettowatchaballgameinsteadoflisteningtomynaggingwifeandkids really doesn't care about in-play AVG.

That's fine that they don't. I like stats that are meaningful (ERA+, OPS, RC/27, ) and all that they hold true. But the All-Star Game is held for the fans. And sorry to say, 95% of the population of Baseball Fan City are not statheads. It's hard to come to grips that others can't see the light but the "exhibition" is just a popularity contest, and what is popular? Homers and RBI.

Seriously, I haven't watched the All-star game and cared about it in probably 10 years. Well, I guess I watched when it was in Milwaukee, but even then I was distracted by visiting family so I really didn't get to watch it until 2 days afterward.

Man, it's late.

 

 

 

 

 

[wildbobu]

okay i admit i was drunk when i posted my last post and obviously this one. but really we have to be the only team in the league who has a fan site that has a post and 4 pages of response against their player playing in the all star game when he is 4th in voting. i understand that players are having better years but i'm pretty sure we are supposed to stick up for our players not put them down for little or no apparent reason.

[pitchleague]

I do agree with that sentiment. I guess if I am going to watch the game, I'd want to see my players in it and have a little bit of personal pride in it.

 

Ugh, do Yankee and Red Sox stathead fans (like many here) care about the all-star game and who rightfully deserves to go? Or are they more of a homer for getting half their team into the starting lineup? Do they have this discussion and openly state that Derek Jeter doesn't deserve to go to the game? (I'm just throwing a name out there, folks. Although I do see he is having a crappy year--for him.) Or do they just say, "Geez La-weez! It's Derek (bronx accent) Jeter we're tawkin' about!" (yes, I know it's spelled Louise, not La-weez.)

[BrewCrewForever]

.291, 20 HR and 55 RBI. Hard to argue with those numbers no matter what the OBP is.

[lcbj68c]

Statheads, fill me in. Do walks score runs more often then HR's score runs? Am I missing something here? Are we saying we'd rather have Braun draw twenty more walks than 20 more home runs? We'd feel better and have him be more deserving of the All-Star Game if he had accumulated 20 walks and 10 homeruns so far this season? Not having Braun in the all-star game because his OBP is low is like not buying a $25,000 new car because it doesnt come with a $2.99 air freshener.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Not having Braun in the all-star game because his OBP is low is like not buying a $25,000 new car because it doesnt come with a $2.99 air freshener.

 

OBP wouldn't be the air freshener in a 25,000 dollar car. It would probably be the entire drive train. If you don't get on base, you can not score runs.

[rluzinski]

Braun really helped his cause by adding 33 points of OPS in one game. A couple more games like and this debate will be over. Until then…

 

Are we saying we'd rather have Braun draw twenty more walks than 20 more home runs?

 

Of course not. An average HR is worth about 3 times as much as a walk in terms of total run production at the TEAM level. Framing your question like that really illustrates what the misunderstanding really is, though. When we are talking about the value of OBP, what we are really comparing is the negative value of an out to the positive value of a non-out. What gives OBP so much value is that it adds base runners AND it reduces the number of outs a player makes. Unfortunately, that's the side of the "run producing" coin that's ignored when we focus too much on stats like HRs or RBIs.

 

Every time Braun doesn't make an out, another Brewer batter is given an extra AB to try and produce runs himself. There's a tremendous amount of value in that. If fans want to judge offensive value better, they need to look at run production at a team level, instead of at a player level.

 

It's a shame that an attempt by me and others to objectively assess the value of Braun's offensive performance this year has been largely met with the response, "You are either with the Brewers or you are with the terrorists." As I've already said numerous times, I have no problem with anyone voting for a guy just because he plays for the team he roots for or just because he likes him. Just don't tell me I also have to pretend a guy has been better than he really has been.

[JJHardy7]

OBP wouldn't be the air freshener in a 25,000 dollar car. It would probably be the entire drive train. If you don't get on base, you can not score runs.

 

I don't think not getting on base is the discussion here. The discussion is does Braun's other numbers make up for his lack of walks. I personally think it does or it's close. If Braun would walk 20 more times this year, how many times would he actually come around and score? I'd take Braun's power over walks every day of the week and twice on Sunday. I personally think only Braun and Sheets should make the all-star game, so I'm not a homer or anything here. I just can't say Braun isn't one of the top three OFers in the NL. Ranking him as low as others have I just don't get.

[endaround]

Braun might not one of the top 3 OFers in the NL Central

[lcbj68c]

rluzinski wrote:

 

Are we saying we'd rather have Braun draw twenty more walks than 20 more home runs?

 

Of course not. An average HR is worth about 3 times as much as a walk in terms of total run production at the TEAM level. Framing your question like that really illustrates what the misunderstanding really is, though.

I was asking, not telling....as I am not a stathead. So if Braun walks more than he hits more home runs, than the team would actually score MORE runs? I guess I'm just not understanding why OBP is more valuable than SLG. Especially in a guy who is the #3 hitter. Couldn't that be some shallow thinking considering he probably doesn't see a lot of balls out of the strike zone considering he is hitting in front of Prince Fielder, certainly not 4 pitches out of the strike zone in a single AB, most of the time, leading to less walks. I understand that OBP is important, but more important than SLG? Again, I'm asking, not telling.

[rluzinski]

If Braun would walk 20 more times this year, how many times would he actually come around and score?

 

The Brewers would have had 20 extra base runners AND about 28 extra ABs on the season. That's not irrelevant.

[lcbj68c]

Not having Braun in the all-star game because his OBP is low is like not buying a $25,000 new car because it doesnt come with a $2.99 air freshener.

 

OBP wouldn't be the air freshener in a 25,000 dollar car. It would probably be the entire drive train. If you don't get on base, you can not score runs. Str

Strictly in terms of being in the All-Star Game, it is in my opinion. "Star Appeal" and "Fan Appeal" would be the drive train. Just my opinion. With hitting for power, home runs, rbi's, and a flashy glove, or stealing bases (depending what type of player you are), being the engine.

[lcbj68c]

If Braun would walk 20 more times this year, how many times would he actually come around and score?

 

The Brewers would have had 20 extra base runners AND about 28 extra ABs on the season. That's not irrelevant.

Of course it's not irrelevant, but how relevant is it? You did not really answer the question that the gentlemen posed. How many runs would actually score if Ryan Braun walked 20 more times as opposed to swinging at pitches in the zone and making an out / hitting an extra base hit and scoring that way? Because seemingly, while it may be 28 extra at bats, if they are unproductive at-bats by Fielder, Branyan, etc, then all those extra at-bats did was tire my hitters for the ability to hit and field later in the game?

[rluzinski]

You did not really answer the question that the gentlemen posed. How many runs would actually score if Ryan Braun walked 20 more times as opposed to swinging at pitches in the zone and making an out / hitting an extra base hit and scoring that way? Because seemingly, while it may be 28 extra at bats, if they are unproductive at-bats by Fielder, Branyan, etc, then all those extra at-bats did was tire my hitters for the ability to hit and field later in the game?

I forgot my time machine at home, so I can't go back and see what the players would have done with those extra AB. Everything I've said is based on "average situation" production. To give some kind of comparison between the average value of different batting events, let's compare Braun to his walk-happy twin brother, Brain,and see what I have to do to make their production equal. If I take 6 Braun HRs and turn them into walks, then take 14 Braun outs and turn them into walks:

Player	AB	H	D	T	HR	BB	HBP	SF	SH	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Braun	285	83	18	3	20	12	2	2	0	.291	.322	.586	.908	.379
Brain	285	83	18	3	14	32	2	2	0	.291	.364	.523	.887	.380

wOBA is "weighted on base average". It just looks at the average run value of each batting event (linear weights) and divides by total PA. The version I used:

wOBA = (0.72 BB + 0.75 HBP + 0.90 1B + 1.24 2B + 1.56 3B + 1.95 HR) / PA

Brain has a SLG 63 points lower but by virtue of 42 extra points of OBP, has equal offensive value, in terms of expected runs scored.

Would Brain have really scored as many runs for the team as Braun has so far? That depends on when Brain walked instead of HRd, when Brain walked instead of made an out and what the batters after Brain did. This is just a best-guess. With Fielder and Hart batting after Braun, it's fair to say that Braun is in a good situation to get the best value for his OBP-buck.

[Oldcity]

Braun has more Homers, RBI's, higher SLG%, and more hits. Braun's OBP is pretty bad tho but I still think Braun is having a better season.

You can't use homers and slugging as two separate arguments for Braun. Slugging already takes homers into account. So does OPS, and when we were making our case yesterday, Braun ranked 10th in OPS in the NL among outfielders.

 

[fondybrewfan]

The fact the Fukodome has that many votes really upsets me. If he didn't have a a whole country voting for him he wouldn't have a prayer. An .836 OPS is very ehhhhhh. Braun actually has a higher OPS than all 3 leading vote getters. I just don't like the whole fan voting thing. Any japanese born player who is at least kinda good is going to get a ton of votes, whether they are deserving or not.

It also sucks that the Cubs have a huge fan base. I have no problems with Soto being the starting catcher at the all star game but he is probably their only position player who truly deserves to start. Zambrano and Dempster should be their along with a couple reserves. Right now only Sheets and Braun deserve spots for the Brewers. Maybe if Prince goes on a hot streak but he has a lot of ground to make up IMO

[Oldcity]

So if Braun walks more than he hits more home runs, than the team would actually score MORE runs?

 

I understand that OBP is important, but more important than SLG? Again, I'm asking, not telling.

OBP is definitely more important. You only get 27 outs in a game. A hitter's main job should be to not use one up, and right now Braun is bad at not making outs.

As for the first question, I don't think you're looking at it the right way. It's not like people want to replace Braun's homers with walks. It's not like he still wouldn't hit home runs if he walked more.