Platoon Dave Bush

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I wouldn't even bother with this idea. I'd just get Bush out of the rotation and find a better option via trade or in our system.

[Diskono]

Seth is obviously better because he got the "W".

Well Duh! To be a good pitcher you gotta battle and know how to win.

 

I wonder what Wayne Franklin is up to these days...

[joepepsi]

I wouldn't even bother with this idea. I'd just get Bush out of the rotation and find a better option via trade or in our system.

3 of his last 4 starts are Qualtiy Starts. He's averaged 6ip, 4.17 ERA over that time. Just sayin.......

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Quality start is a very 'meh' stat - isn't it 6 IP, and giving up 3 or fewer runs? That's a 4.5 ERA and consistently needing the pen to get 9 more outs. That's more average than anything.

 

I would really like to see the 'quality start' term get pushed to describing only starts 7 innings or more with 3 or fewer earned runs given up. Then it would actually mean what it implies.

[joepepsi]

Granted, it's a bit of a silly stat, but a league average pitcher is nothing to scoff at. Those types sometimes fetch $40 million/4 year contracts. Bush's value is increased slightly due to his ability to remain injury free. But my point isn't that Bush is a great pitcher. It's what do you expect to get out there that is better than league average? And what are you expecting to pay for it?

[rluzinski]

I don't think platooning Bush is practical, nor do I think I'd want to even if it was practical. There's just no good reason to expect a larger than average home/away split from Bush. If anything, I'd think a flyball-happy pitcher like Bush would be expected to do worse at home. I'm tempted to think it's mostly just a fluky split. You'll find a million fluky splits if you look for them. It's almost impossible to say which ones are "real".

 

Quality start is a very 'meh' stat - isn't it 6 IP, and giving up 3 or fewer runs? That's a 4.5 ERA and consistently needing the pen to get 9 more outs. That's more average than anything.

 

What's so bad about being average? It makes you better than 50% of the starting pitchers in the league. I have no problem calling that a "quality" start, although we are really just arguing semantics. Quality can man a million things to a million people.

 

Pitchers made 4,862 starts last year and 2,318 resulted in a quality start. That's about 48%. If your backend of the rotation is making quality starts more often than not, you are in very good shape.

 

I would really like to see the 'quality start' term get pushed to describing only starts 7 innings or more with 3 or fewer earned runs given up. Then it would actually mean what it implies.

 

A little less than 25% of NL starts last year resulted in that kind of "quality" start, so it certainly would set the bar higher. I'm not sure how particularly fair it would be to the backend of the rotation in the NL to focus on 7 innings, though. Even a mediocre NL pitcher doing well isn't going to get a chance to go 7 innings fairly often.

[datrain711]

i'm up for a bush platoon as well; sit him on the road, and sit him at home

[owbc]

Since we have a 5.03 road ERA and a 3.33 home ERA, I suggest that we platoon the entire pitching staff.

[joepepsi]

What's so bad about being average? It makes you better than 50% of the starting pitchers in the league. I have no problem calling that a "quality" start, although we are really just arguing semantics. Quality can man a million things to a million people.

 

Pitchers made 4,862 starts last year and 2,318 resulted in a quality start. That's about 48%. If your backend of the rotation is making quality starts more often than not, you are in very good shape.

Maybe the true test of the Quality Start idea is to check the winning pct in the majors for those 2,318 QS. Better yet, I wonder what the winning pct is for teams in games where the starters met the minimum standard, 6ip, 3er. I'm gonna guess it's better than .500. If it's something like .550 then the concept of Quality Start is useful and valid.

 

[rluzinski]

NL pitchers averaged less innings (5.79) and more runs (4.64 ERA) than a quality start, so one would expect better than a .500 win% as a result. Last year, teams actually won 1,581 of those 2,318 quality start games. 68%? Wow.

[logan82]

NL pitchers averaged less innings (5.79) and more runs (4.64 ERA) than a quality start, so one would expect better than a .500 win% as a result. Last year, teams actually won 1,581 of those 2,318 quality start games. 68%? Wow.

So what you are saying is that if a team doesn't have to use their 4th or 5th best reliever they have a better chance of winning?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'm confused as to how Dave Bush is a "League Average" pitcher while sporting a 5.73 ERA. I'm not sure that's league average.

[joepepsi]

I'm confused as to how Dave Bush is a "League Average" pitcher while sporting a 5.73 ERA. I'm not sure that's league average.

He's not this so far this year, nor was he last year according to his ERA. But for his career he's been average. 4 of his last 7 starts have been Quality Starts. He's pitched to a 4.17ERA in his last 4 starts. Could be mini "hot" streak, or a small sample size, or it could be he's eeking his way back to average after a bad start to the season.

 

NL pitchers averaged less innings (5.79) and more runs (4.64 ERA) than a quality start, so one would expect better than a .500 win% as a result. Last year, teams actually won 1,581 of those 2,318 quality start games. 68%? Wow.

That's amazing! It still begs the question, what's the winning pct. for a team when the starter goes 6ip, 3ER? The 68% could be the sum of teams winning 90% of their games when the starter goes 6ip, 0-1ER + 75%winning pct when starter goes 6ip, 2ER + 45% winning pct when starter goes 6ip, 3er. Or something like. I can't seem to find that sort of data anywhere.

[rluzinski]

That's amazing! It still begs the question, what's the winning pct. for a team when the starter goes 6ip, 3ER?

The greatest toy ever:

Baseball-Reference: PI

From 2004-2007, there were 906 "perfect quality starts". Of those, 449 ended in a win for the pitcher, 49%. It makes sense that it's a bit worse than 50%, since 3 earned runs can translate into 4+ total runs. win% for games with 3 runs (not ER) in 6 IP is 52.2%.

Again, I appreciate someone objecting to calling a performance that giives your team a coin flip chance of winning a "quality start" but let's not get hung up on the name and just accept it for what it is. It's very slightly above average.

And I don't really believe that Bush is even an average starting pitcher anymore. I just thought I'd take a little closer look at the quality start. That's all.

[bjkrautk]

I try not to look at quality starts in a vacuum, since one start is nothing to be overly proud of. If your expectation is that the pitcher should put up a QS every time they take the mound, then what you really care about is QS% (or, how often they actually deliver a quality start when they take the mound). It's more telling (In My Opinion) to know how often a starting pitcher fails to deliver a quality start....as it tends to filter out pitchers with otherwise good peripheral numbers who either wear out a bullpen (Parra's 4 QS in 14 starts) or are prone to the "Big Inning" like Dave Bush (5 QS in 12 starts). CV had 3 QS in 9 starts before his demotion, split between both ends of the spectrum.

 

By contrast: Ben Sheets has 9 QS in 13 starts; Jeff Suppan has 8 QS in 14 starts. McClung is 3-for-5 in delivering a QS (with the two non-quality starts coming in his first two starts while building up his pitch counts). Just to wind up the list, Gallardo was 3-for-3 in delivering Quality Starts before his injury.

 

 

Unfortunately, I don't know of any site that actually tracks QS%. (ESPN doesn't even include the QS stat in their profiles anymore, which is a pain, since they have been my go-to site for years now.) If nothing else, it's a measure of consistent performance....which is the first thing I want to look for in a starting pitcher.

[joepepsi]

I try not to look at quality starts in a vacuum, since one start is nothing to be overly proud of. If your expectation is that the pitcher should put up a QS every time they take the mound, then what you really care about is QS% (or, how often they actually deliver a quality start when they take the mound). It's more telling (In My Opinion) to know how often a starting pitcher fails to deliver a quality start...

Good points. I find myself counting the quality starts of a pitcher's game log if I am curious about him. There's value in a guy who's providing a QS half the time. Bush hasn't been doing that yet this year.

[lcbj68c]

It's the 7th inning, two outs.. If he joins Juan, I'll give him a pass for the rest of the year.

[RyDogg66]

It's the 7th inning, two outs.. If he joins Juan, I'll give him a pass for the rest of the year.

http://death-by-tshirt.com/dbt-images/kissofdeath-tshirt.jpg

[RyDogg66]

Dave Bush's ERA after today's game, 5.27 with a WHIP of 1.27

AJ Burnett's ERA after today's game, 5.42 with a WHIP of 1.55

 

One of these pitchers is thinking about opting out of the middle of a multi year contract that pays him 13million a year to make MORE money in the future and sign another big deal, the other has been demoted to the minors and the bullpen this year while half the team's fan base wants him released or taken out of the rotation for good.

[GB12]

I don't know if this has been discussed here before, but I think it might be time for a platoon in the rotation. I have no problem with Bush pitching at Miller Park, as he has been a more than credible pitcher at home for his career in Milwaukee. But Bush's road stats throughout in his career in Milwaukee are just awful, and we are looking at over two to three years of starts here.

 

I was wondering if it would be doable with Bush pitching every time his position come up at home, but Villy pitching every time the slot comes up away. It doesn't have to be Villanueva, just throwing out a name that is already on the roster that is already "stretched out" and has had some success starting.

 

Would that be practical? Would they need to bring up another arm for the pen essentially now having 6 starters? I was thinking Bush and whomever could pitch out of the pen the weeks when they were "skipped", but I don't know how practical that would be or how the pitchers would adapt. To me its a matter of maximizing Bush's strengths while minimizing his weaknesses, but it terms or roster/bullpen management, it might be a nightmare. Any thoughts?

 

Here's your answer http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=772041

[rluzinski]

Bush has definitely been doing something differently on the road than at home this year:

 

Dave Bush is a man of mystery

 

I'm still not sure about this idea about only pitching him at home. I just don't see it being very practical.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't want to see him in a home/road platoon if only for the fact that it very well could mess with his rhythm when he's pitching at home.

[RU Rah Rah]

Parallel discussion in Suppan thread.

[brewerjamie15]

Did Trenny the Brewers TV broadcaster just say this is actually going to happen?

[ewizabeff]

yes. McClung pitches in the rotation spot away, Bush at home. I think this is being dicussed in 2 or 3 threads now.