Can we give credit to Yost/Melvin about Seth McClung?

[Postseason2006]

Ummm...sorry, but I argued before the season. And if you are telling me he's a better fit at #2 than #6, your hind sight analysis is working well too.

 

Try showing me how many opportunities Prince and Braun have had and you might have some facts to argue with.

[And That]

Ummm...sorry

 

Is almost never a good way to start a post.

[rluzinski]

And if you are telling me he's a better fit at #2 than #6, your hind sight analysis is working well too.

 

All I'm arguing is that there is no statistical evidence that "proves" he should never have batted 2nd in the first place, as you contend.

[lukevan]

Perhaps he wouldn't have hit so many homers without Braun behind him all year. Just saying.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

All I'm arguing is that there is no statistical evidence that "proves" he should never have batted 2nd in the first place, as you contend.

Here is the statistical evidence you need: Mike Camerons sub 300 OBP. Usually you want #2 hitters to be on base so your best hitters can get them in. I'm sure you'll disagree with that through sabremetrics, but my idea isn't exactly frowned upon in baseball if you look at #2 hitters throughout the league.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just wanted to talk about Seth's performance on Friday. It concerned me while he was pitching, and I think he was quite fortunate that the O's didn't do more damage. The 5 BBs really, really worry me, since control is always what has been Seth's roadblock. Beyond that, how he was getting them concerns me more.

 

He reverted back relatively consistently to trying to reach the mid-90s with his FB. While he certainly succeeded, his control was horrible seemingly every time he 'reached back'. Yet when he kept his velocity in the lower 90s, his control appeared to be very good. Maybe Kendall needs a sign for the fastball Seth can actually locate, and the 'Gruntball'.

 

What concerns me so much is that teams by now likely have the scouting reports on McClung. That's fine -- happens for every pitcher in the game. But if, on top of teams being better prepared to face him, Seth is going to try to be Mr. Macho & grunt his way to a bunch of 96-mph pitches outside the zone, then I worry about his ability to be effective.

 

Don't get me wrong -- I've been enjoying McClung's contributions to the team, and certainly don't want to see him fail. However, the BBs & control WOAHs worry me a bunch, since they've haunted him his whole career (not like it'd be a problem we hadn't seen before).

 

It was puzzling to hear BA & Rock talk about how great McClung was on Friday during the game today. Considering that they appeared to remember only 3 of the 5 BBs, I guess that shouldn't surprise me.

[PeaveyFury]

It was puzzling to hear BA & Rock talk about how great McClung was on Friday during the game today. Considering that they appeared to remember only 3 of the 5 BBs, I guess that shouldn't surprise me.

 

I think McClung was pretty great last night- He clearly hit the wall in the 7th, and that's where two of the walks and the HR was hit. Prior to the 7th, his line was 6IP, 0 Runs, 2 hits, and 3 BB's with 6 K's. That's really, really good.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The 5 BBs really, really worry me

With this umpire crew, it frankly doesn't worry me at all.

[BrewCrewForever]

The 5 walks were the most he had since those 6 against the Braves. But even with the walks he pitched out of trouble and only gave up runs on that 2 run HR. I'm fine with Seth, his only bad start was still the Braves game sure I would like to see him walk 0 or 1 like he had before last night but McClung has been awesome and he has really grown on me.

[TooLiveBrew]

Don't get me wrong, I've fully enjoyed Seth's success so far. But his most recent start was the first time (obv. excluding the ATL shelling) that, during a game, I saw something that I found concerning. I agree that McClung looked to just tire out in the 7th, and that's no big deal imo. But I didn't think his control was all that hot on the whole (could be a case of the 'seems likes') Friday. Like I said, that's really the first time -- during a game -- that I felt that way. The other concerns I've had about Seth have been just general projection, not how he's looked.

[TooLiveBrew]

I can't get two separate graphs to display -- they show as the same graph. Take a look on Josh Calk's pitch f/x tool, though. Set the pitch type as "fastball", and the velocity as "< 96mph"

 

I know there's probably too little data yet, but to me (an untrained observer), that second plot's results look 'better'/'tighter'

[bklynbrewcrew]

I fear that McClungs luck will run out soon. He has trouble locating his pitches and that was evident in this last start. I am more than happy with the job he has done but dont think it can last much longer.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok, something funny is going on with the graph I posted. I think it might be getting re-set to whatever someone views on the pitch f/x tool. In any event, use the pitch f/x tool I linked and run it for fastballs > 95 mph, and once again for fastballs < 96 mph. Frustrating that I can't figure out how to get the graphs to display correctly, but hopefully following the link isn't too big a hassle.

[PeaveyFury]

Thanks for adding to the conversation.

 

That comes off as pretty condescending, for what it's worth.

 

I think Rillo made a fair point- the strike zone this weekend was jumping around quite a bit.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well, it was condescending -- I thought he was making a crack about today's game. Sorry, TWR -- my fault. I didn't get the point you were making. To respond now that I know what you meant, the concerns I had while watching his last performance didn't have much (if anything) to do with the umps. I thought Seth's technique, or at least his control, was very off-&-on Saturday night. I don't recall seeing him overthrow a pitch & get squeezed, though I might just be remembering the 'worst' misses -- I can admit that.

 

Fwiw, Phil Cuzzi was the HP ump on Saturday. From the THT "A Zone of Their Own" article, Cuzzi was rated out as having the 4th-largest strike zone amongst MLB umps (emphasis on the low strike). I think the study will have to be expanded over multiple seasons before it should be 'trusted' fully, but umpires, in working every 4th game or so behind the plate, certainly have a reasonable amount of data to look at in studying even just half of a season (the author, Jonathan Hale, notes that he used the 2007 data, and "about half of the pitches thrown in 2007 were tracked").

 

Below is the Pitch f/x data from Seth's last start. He did get squeezed on some obvious calls, but so did Baltimore's Daniel Cabrera... so it was consistently bad. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif What I found interesting about this game chart was how closely the scatter seems to match the results from Josh Calk's Pitch f/x tool (had to use brooksbaseball.net's tool to get a single game) had for McClung in general. Another odd thing is that Cuzzi apparently wasn't digging the low strike for McClung, even though the low strike is supposed to be Cuzzi's call. Cabrera felt that squeeze, too.

 

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/location.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_06/day_21/gid_2008_06_21_balmlb_milmlb_1//pbp/pitchers/425528.xml&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=1

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Another shaky outing for Seth, but it's only fair to point out that several of the hits he surrendered were bleeders or seeing-eye hits. He just didn't look sharp today, but I was glad to see a start that was (iirc) free of the 'gruntball'.

 

He had just the two BBs allowed, but the command just wasn't there tonight from what I could tell.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I expect a lot more starts like this from McClung. I just cant see how we will ever be able to count on this guy for the long haul. I just hope that Melvin doesnt trade LaPorta or Gamel to rent for Sabathia for 2 months.

[danzig6767]

Even though he gave up five runs, i only remembered 3 hard hit balls, the two homers and a double in the gap. There were the two bunt hits, a hit batter that grazed maybe two threads of the guys jersey, a flair or two that fell, and two seeing eye singles that found a hole because we were in a shift that backfired.

 

I understand the concern given the poor track record of McClung in his past, but i'd be more worried if Seth was walking tons of batters and/or given up lots of hard hit balls. He obviously wasn't very sharp tonight, but at least half the hits off him tonight were bunts, flares, and not hard hit grounders that found a hole.

[trwi7]

I wasn't so concerned about some of the hits tonight but he had horrible control. He fell behind a ton of batters consistently going into 2-1 and 3-1 counts. He's going to get hammered if he keeps doing that.

[TooLiveBrew]

I wasn't so concerned about some of the hits tonight but he had horrible control.

 

This is what I mean. I'm rooting for him every time out, but his last two starts have worried me in terms of command. If I'm patient with Bush, I have to do the same for Seth. I just see Villanueva as more sensible in the rotation, even though Carlos hasn't been good yet either.

[danzig6767]

I wasn't so concerned about some of the hits tonight but he had horrible control. He fell behind a ton of batters consistently going into 2-1 and 3-1 counts. He's going to get hammered if he keeps doing that.

No question the team has to keep a close eye on McClung and not have to long a leash if he starts giving up to many runs, but on the flip side to your comment above, it's also a positive that Seth was still able to make some quality pitches after getting behind in the count as evidenced by not many hard hit balls even though he was behind in the count often.

The Tampa Seth would have totally imploded in those situations, but so far this year for the most part, he's been able to avoid being terrible even in games where his command was off. In that 5th inning, if we weren't in defensive shifts twice on the infield, the two routine grounders are outs and the Twins don't score a run. That happens sometimes to all pitchers.

 

It was one of those weird games where a pitcher had command issues, but also didn't have much luck either.

[trwi7]

Here's what McClung did tonight.

 

1st inning:

 

Ahead of Gomez 0-2, groundout

Behind Casilla 3-1, homerun

Walks Mauer on 5 pitches

Ahead of Morneau 0-2, struck him out on 6 pitches

4 pitch walk to Cuddyer

Got behind Kubel 3-1, got it to a full count, Kubel grounded out

 

2nd inning:

 

Got behind 1-0 to Young, came back and struck him out on 3 straight pitches

Got ahead of Buscher 0-2, groundout

Got ahead of Harris 0-1, groundout

 

3rd inning:

 

Gomez first pitch bunt single

Casilla first pitch bunt single

Mauer first pitch flyout to deep center

Got behind Morneau 3-1, groundout

Got ahead of Cuddyer 1-2, flyout

 

4th inning:

 

Got behind Kubel 1-0, homerun

Got behind Young 3-1, single

Got behind Buscher 2-1, got a double play

First pitch single for Harris

Got ahead of Gomez 0-2, groundout

 

5th inning:

 

Got ahead of Casilla 0-2, groundout

Got ahead of Mauer 0-2, double

Got ahead of Morneau 0-1, single

Cuddyer got hit by the first pitch

Got behind Kubel 2-1, sac fly

Got behind Young 2-1, single

 

So that's six batters who got ahead of him by either 3-0 or 3-1 counts and a few more got ahead of him 2-1. He's just not going to have success if he keeps doing that.

[danzig6767]

So that's six batters who got ahead of him by either 3-0 or 3-1 counts and a few more got ahead of him 2-1. He's just not going to have success if he keeps doing that.

I'm not trying to be an ass here, but isn't that just stating the obvious?

My only point was that there was a positive in that Seth was behind so many hitters and still was able to avoid excessive amounts of walks or hard hit balls. Considering his past in Tampa where he'd get destroyed when his command was bad, it shows some improvement as a pitcher.

No question though that if he falls behind so much in future starts, he'll be playing with fire and likely get burned by it.

 

[trwi7]

No question though that if he falls behind so much in future starts, he'll be playing with fire and likely get burned by it.

That's my point. Better offenses with more patient hitters are going to hit him hard if he keeps doing that.

[MJLiverock]

McClung also managed to get ahead of 6 hitters 0-2 which is a testament to his raw ability and offsets his control a little bit. I agree he needs to be watched closely and I continue to hold my breath and hope he keeps it up but it isn't like he is getting by on smoke and mirrors he has a good fastball and wicked curve when his getting it over. I just don't think it is inconcievable that he has improved his control and may be an effective back of the roation starter. I like him in the rotation more than Villy at this point just based on his better stuff. Once Villy starts going through the lineup a 2nd and 3rd time I get worried which makes me less sure of him as a starter.