Wild Card Speculation (Latest: 10 Game September Roadtrip)

[razzzorsharp]

What is the difference between that site and this one...

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

[zzzmanwitz]

The site I posted recently shows a graphical view of how the team has progressed or regressed over the year.

[razzzorsharp]

First time the Brewers are ahead of the Cubs since the beginning of the year according to sportclubsstats.com.

 

72.2 vs. 70.9

[BrewCityUnit]

Are the Cubs the new favorites to win the wild card? How great is that! Should be an exciting wild card race.

[Glennron]

Are the Cubs the new favorites to win the wild card? How great is that! Should be an exciting wild card race.

If the Brewers take over sole possesion today this thread might as well be locked http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif.

 

By the way that's a cool site zzz, apparently the Brewers now have a better chance than the Cubs of making the postseason, at least according to them.

 

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Does anyone have the updated playoff odds for the Brewers?

[1992casey]

Playoff odds links, along with member analysis of the quality of the playoff odds systems, are in this thread: coolstandings.com.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I really like the 41% odds at the Wild Card. I think we are in a better position right now than we were in last year when it comes to our playoff chances because we don't have the pressure of being in first place and we still even have a realistic shot at the division with 6 games remaining against the Scrubs. We are also playing better baseball with the exception to one bad series to the Cubs where we basically choked. Getting swept by the Cubs might not be all that bad. Maybe the Brewers will gain some experience from it and play a lot better against them in the coming games. We will see.

[naivin]

Is anyone else a little freaked out by the 4 games at Philadelphia, followed by 3 games at Wrigley in mid-September? I certainly hope we pile up a bunch of wins between now and then, because that trip scares me.

[JohnA17]

OK The Cards can start their inevitable collapse anytime now. Sheesh, Larussa is getting an amazing amount of wins out of that team, he could win 100 games with this Brewer team. I think it will take 93 wins to get this done and it is at the point where I feel like a sweep of the Pirates this weekend is a must. Yes I am concerned about that 7 game Philly/Cubs swing. Our pitching can get it done but I fear a potential slump by our hitters may bring us down. Thank god Braun is back.

[crewcrazy]

At this rate, I'm pretty scared that 93 wins won't do it. With every Cubs and Cards win, it's looking like it'll take close to 100 to win the division and 95 to win the wildcard. It'd be interesting to see how many people would think a 93-95 win season without a trip to the playoffs would be a failure (even though the odds of that happening are extremely slim).

[owbc]

Current playoff odds:

 

Division 14.4%

WC: 58%

Playoffs: 72.4%

 

You have to be careful with these numbers, though--we only had an 8% chance at the division a few days ago. If we lose 2 in a row and the Cards/Cubs win 2 in a row, it could easily drop our odds 20%.

 

I agree that somebody with 90 wins is going to get left out. My theory is that all of the deadline trade moves have bolstered the contenders and put the non-contenders on a lower tier. The Braves, Pirates, and Reds are not what they used to be. Virtually every contender has made some kind of move to improve their team.

[splitterpfj]

I think the Cubs will lead the NL, with 98 wins.

 

The Mets will win the East, with 92 wins, Philly will have 88 wins, the Marlins will have 84.

 

The Diamondbacks will win the west with 88 wins, the Dodgers will have 86.

 

The Brewers will win the wild card, with 93 wins, the Cardinals will win 91.

 

 

 

The one thing that bothers me about the Brewers' remaining schedule? Sabathia will miss the Cardinals, Mets and Phillies. Sheets will pitch vs all three, a dominant run from Ben might make the difference.

[Darnell Junior]

33 games left with 74 victories already. 20-13 isn't out of the realm of possibility with our schedule. It's very plausible that we win 6 or 7 out of our 8 against the Pirates, and 1 over .500 in the rest of the games puts us at 94 wins. *Assuming we go 20 and 13 to finish with 94 victories, the Cubs would have to go 15-18 to force the playoffs, which is possible considering how many games we have left with them, but I still doubt it. Cards would have to go 22-8 to catch us if we took care of business, so I think 92 will get you into the playoffs this year.

 

I like our chances, especially with Kendall, Cameron, and Weeks all starting to hit at the right time and our pitching being lights out the last few weeks.

[kmcasper23]

As long as the Crew weathers the storm when they go on the road in the middle of September with 4 at philly, 3 @ Chi, and 3 @ Cin the chances are very good.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

The green row is Brewers hypothetical record for the last 31

Above the green row is what the Cubs would have to do for the Brewers to overtake them

Below the green row is what the other WC teams would have to do to overtake the Brewers

 

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/3717/playoffs825tw3.jpg

 

I'd like to think 18-13 is a realistic look at the last 31, which makes the Cards or 2nd place team in the East need a pretty strong run from here on out.

 

edit - Clarify that the above numbers are to win outright. To have anyone below tie with Milwaukee, they can win one fewer game; and for Milwaukee to tie Chicago, they can win one more game for us to still tie them.

[Chio151]

Thank you Fido, that makes the run really clear. I think shooting for 20 wins would be the goal certainly, with at least one being against the Cards this week.

[Legacy25GT]

Thank you Fido, that makes the run really clear. I think shooting for 20 wins would be the goal certainly, with at least one being against the Cards this week.

 

I agree. 20 wins or more is definitely doable. If the cubs keep up the pace they have now, the division will be out of reach obviously, but with the tough schedule the cubs have coming up, its not unreasonable for the cubs to be sub-500 for the remainder of the schedule. Though of course the best way for the brewers to ensure a cubs collapse is to beat them head to head in mid & late september.

[RU Rah Rah]

The Cards' schedule:

 

2 games/home v. Brewers

3 games/road v. Astros

3 games/road v. D'backs

3 games/home v. Marlins

3 games/home v. Cubs

3 games/road v. Pirates

3 games/road v. Reds

3 games/road v. Cubs

4 games/home v. D'backs

3 games/home v. Reds

 

So they have 15 games left against teams that currently are in playoff position (D'backs, Cubs, Brewers), 9 games against pretty bad teams (Pirates and Reds), and 6 games against competent-but-not-great teams (Marlins and Astros). I just don't see them going significantly over .500 (20-10 or something) for that stretch.

 

So, really, the Brewers might just have to play .500 ball the rest of the way? I like the chances of that happening.

[fondybrewfan]

I think we are a lock if we get to 17 wins, I don't think of the other teams could go on the run that is needed (less than 10 losses the rest of the way) I would even be somewhat confident in 16 but I would just assume get 17-20 remove all doubt

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The thing that worries me less about the eastern teams, is it would take two of them to play well not just one. I could see one of them passing us, but not both. They play each other 5 times, but have plenty of games left against the Nats.

[RU Rah Rah]

The Phillies have 11 games against the Nats and Braves, but the rest are against the Mets, Cubs, Fish, and Brewers. The Mets' schedule looks pretty similar. I just don't see either one of them going 20-10-ish or better (especially the Mets, with their bullpen woes).

 

Of the four teams legitimately vying for the WC, the Brewers really seem to have the easiest schedule -- 16 games against the Pirates, Reds, and Padres. If the goal is, say, 17 more wins, the team can get the bulk of them right there.

[jeffh]

I hate to say this but i don't think we are going to make the playoffs That road trip to Chicago and Philly scare me to death. I hope the philies beat the mets and go into first and stay there. I am more worried about the phillies than the Mets.

[SeriesFinale]

After tonight's battle I hope the Phillies sweep the series and don't look back in the division. I prefer our chances to do some damage against the Mets at home.

[dlk9s]

If we win the series against the bad teams, without sweeps, that will be 11 games (2 wins twice vs Reds, 2 wins twice vs Pirates, 3 wins vs Padres). As our magic number to clinch the wild card is 26, that means we would need a combined 15 Brewers wins/Mets losses and 15 Brewers wins/Cardinals losses. IF we can take care of business against the bad teams, I like our chances.

 

Now, say we lose the Cubs, Phillies, and Mets series, without getting swept, and lose the final game against the Cardinals. That's 4 wins, bringing the magic number down to 11. It would take a major effort by the Cards and Mets to go 19-11 the rest of the way.

 

Tack 2, 3, 4 more wins onto my scenario and now the Cards and Phils would need an extraordinary final month.

 

So, basically, take care of business against the bad teams and tread water against the good teams and we have a really good shot at the playoffs (not that we don't already). Just a little fun with numbers before I go to bed.