Wild Card Speculation (Latest: 10 Game September Roadtrip)

[obobo55]

OK, at 2-0 I am starting to feel greedy. Is it wrong to hope for .500 over the last 8 and a 6-4 trip? Probably too hopeful, but that would put us at 47-38 coming into that nice looking homestand...

 

Let's go SOUP!!!

[PeaveyFury]

It seems to be turning into a three team race right now, with the Brewers 2.5 games ahead of the third team.

 

But as we've seen in the last couple of weeks, things can change quickly.

[naivin]

OK, at 2-0 I am starting to feel greedy. Is it wrong to hope for .500 over the last 8 and a 6-4 trip?

Yes, as tempting as it may be. The 5 wins have to come somewhere, so I'm not sure expectations should change yet. If they win today however, I will be looking for 6-4.

[dlk9s]

The Arizona series is going to be very tough, despite their recent struggles. We got lucky when we played them at home, as we didn't have to face Webb OR Haren.

[lcbj68c]

ATL is where we had to get some wins. I'd like to somehow get two of these next four and 1 of 4 in Arizona for a 5-5 trip. We face Arizona's best staff.

 

Randy Johnson (4-5), Micah Owings (6-6), Cy Webb (11-4) & Dan Haren (8-4) w/ Suppan, McClung, Parra, Sheets Yuck.

[zzzmanwitz]

ATL is where we had to get some wins. I'd like to somehow get two of these next four and 1 of 4 in Arizona for a 5-5 trip. We face Arizona's best staff.

 

Randy Johnson (4-5), Micah Owings (6-6), Cy Webb (11-4) & Dan Haren (8-4) w/ Suppan, McClung, Parra, Sheets Yuck.

I'm not sure why you are so down on those pitching matchups. It seems like our best 4 against their best 4, even though Bush has pitched better of late.

[splitterpfj]

Last month totals:

 

Webb - 2 wins, 4.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

Johnson - 0 wins, 6.61 ERA, 1.56 WHIP

Owings - 0 wins, 8.53 ERA, 1.74 WHIP

 

Haren - 3 wins, 2.48 ERA, .90 WHIP

 

That's been one stud, one average starter, and two disasters.

 

Suppan - 2 wins, 2.79 ERA, 1.52 WHIP

McClung - 3 wins, 3.99 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Parra - 7 wins, 4.29 ERA, 1.61 WHIP

 

Sheets - 4 wins, 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

 

Those starts against Baltimore destroyed both Suppan and Parra's WHIP, but even at that, I don't see an edge for AZ, the highest ERA in the bunch for Milwaukee matches what Webb has done in recent weeks. I don't see why the Brewers can't split that series.

[Klements Bratwurst]

2008 National League - Wild Card Standings- As of completion of 6/24/08 games
NATIONAL	W	L	Pct	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10
St. Louis	45	33	.577	-	23-17	22-16	363	335	+28	Won 1	5-5
Milwaukee	43	34	.558	1.5	25-13	18-21	351	349	+2	Won 4	8-2
Florida	40	36	.526	4	22-16	18-20	372	372		Lost 2	4-6
NY Mets	37	39	.487	7	20-16	17-23	350	358	-8	Lost 2	5-5
Atlanta	38	41	.481	7.5	27-14	11-27	361	322	+39	Lost 2	4-6
Pittsburgh	37	40	.481	7.5	24-16	13-24	382	419	-37	Won 1	4-6
Houston	36	41	.468	8.5	18-16	18-25	336	372	-36	Won 2	3-7
LA Dodgers	35	41	.461	9	19-18	16-23	319	325	-6	Lost 1	4-6
Cincinnati	35	43	.449	10	21-17	14-26	332	388	-56	Lost 2	3-7
San Francisco	33	44	.429	11.5	14-24	19-20	317	362	-45	Won 1	3-7
Colorado	32	46	.410	13	20-19	12-27	329	395	-66	Lost 3	5-5
San Diego	32	46	.410	13	21-21	11-25	290	359	-69	Lost 3	2-8
Washington	30	49	.380	15.5	15-25	15-24	287	397	-110	Lost 4	3-7

[Glennron]

splitterpfj wrote:

Suppan - 2 wins, 2.79 ERA, 1.52 WHIP

McClung - 3 wins, 3.99 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Parra - 7 wins, 4.29 ERA, 1.61 WHIP

 

Sheets - 4 wins, 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

 

Those starts against Baltimore destroyed both Suppan and Parra's WHIP, but even at that, I don't see an edge for AZ, the highest ERA in the bunch for Milwaukee matches what Webb has done in recent weeks. I don't see why the Brewers can't split that series.

Parra's WHIP was pretty bad before the Baltimore series, he's lucky Baltimore hit into DP's three consecutive innings, otherwise his ERA could be quite a bit higher. Suppan would also appear to be a bit "lucky" (well, at least before his last two starts). Before today he had a 3.92 ERA, yet his whip was over 1.5 and had a nice K/BB ratio of 48/39. He's not good.

[naivin]

Well, I am more than satisfied with the 5 wins I and most here wanted, but getting that 6th today sure would be nice. Either way, they did what they had to do, and could potentially better that today. Now onto 10 games at home. Must get 6 wins minimum, but 7 is more like it. Now is the time to gain a little ground (and acquire a SP).

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

That 6th win was all but there, but the baseball Gods just didn't want us to have it.

[Klements Bratwurst]

I have gotten over the debacle yesterday. I figured that the game that Rivera's lunging grab of a line drive that turned into a double play saved the Brewers and Gas Can Mota. So sub out the game yesterday that we should have won and replace it with the game we lost from the other day. A 5-5 roadtrip is OK by me. 7 games over .500 with a nice homestand coming. Plus if the Crew can add Sabathia, I think this might be a big pick up for the team.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So do we root for the Cubs or the Cardinals? I say root for the Cardinals because they are more beatable when we play them head to head.

[lcbj68c]

So do we root for the Cubs or the Cardinals? I say root for the Cardinals because they are more beatable when we play them head to head.

I say Root for the Cardinals. I'd rather have all 3 teams about even heading into the All-Star Break than 1 team out in and front and the Brewers even. I think it is a pretty good conclusion that the Wild Card will come from the central. Therefore, I think we have better odds with 3 teams even with each other fighting for two spots than just Brewers/Cardinals fighting for 1 spot.

[logan82]

The Cubs and Cards play each other 9 more times after the 3 game series this weekend. Lots of time to pick up games.

[silversurferr]

By late August, we won't be chasing the Cards. Their pitching will fail. The non-division leaders of the pack of four: Philly, NY, Ari, and LA , are the more likely wild card suitors. Hopefully the Cubs will fade with the Cards so we won't need to worry about the WC.

[And That]

I say don't root for either. If the Brewers keep winning, it won't matter.

[splitterpfj]

If the Cardinals do slip, the Brewers will be in a fight with the second-place team from the NL East. Nobody in the west is a big deal right now, they'll have a division winner, and otherwise go home.

 

Tom Glavine will decide during the All-Star break, whether or not to have season-ending surgery; the Braves look to be too banged up to hang around.

 

The Mets have the same issues they've always had - superstars surrounded by old legs and average players. They'll likely have a run at some point, but I don't think they'll hold together.

 

For the wild card - the Brewers are in a fight with the Cardinals and the Marlins.

[owbc]

The Mets seem more likely to finish 2nd in the NL East than the Marlins. The Marlins have hit an insanely high 124 home runs while committing 73 errors (1st in NL) and compiling a 4.69 team ERA (14th in NL). They also have a -20 run differential, as they have won many games in their last at-bat. They can't keep at that offensive pace forever. Last night was just an extreme example of what has been going on the whole season.

 

While the Marlins have been overachieving, the Mets and Braves have been underachieving.

 

You have to like our chances against anyone in the NL East, though.

[TooLiveBrew]

For the wild card - the Brewers are in a fight with the Cardinals and the Marlins.

 

I know the Phillies are atop the East, but I think they should be included too. There appears to be a fight for two playoff spots out of the Crew, Cards, Marlins, Mets, & Phillies. I agree the Mets are probably too old/dinged up, but they're certainly talented enough that I don't think you can count them out.

[Tbadder]

I still think we're at least a month away from even thinking about a Wildcard. I'd rather not have the team entertaining the notion, scoreboard watching, notching wins and losses in an attempt to figure out the possibilities. Right now were one Ben Sheet's injury from being out of the race. A million things could happen good or bad. The variables are immense. I don't get the speculation.

 

Now if we get CC, then you have to start doing all those things that waste your time.

[Ennder]

Any team in baseball can get hot for 2 months and make the wild card picture change. Just look at what the Orioles did to start the season or what the Nats did a few years back in the 1st half or heck even the 2004 Brewers who massively overachieved in the first half.

[Web Jim Edmonds]

By late August, we won't be chasing the Cards. Their pitching will fail.

By late August their pitching will be Wainwright, Carpenter and Loshe (latest Dave Duncan project) up front. The 4th and 5th spots wont matter much because Pinero, Looper and Boggs are already "failing" and Wellehmer can go more than 5 innings. I wouldnt anticipate a dramatic relaps, but a slight improvement. But then again all this dime store paper analysis doesnt often live up to on-the-field play.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

As of today the Brewers are the wildcard leader by percentage points.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like being in the wild card lead. Feels nice.