Wild Card Speculation (Latest: 10 Game September Roadtrip)

[OldSchoolSnapper]

5.5 back in June. Anyone who says we don't have a chance is dead wrong. I peaked at Cubs.com and they're already starting the "We're still X games ahead, calm down" threads.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Six over .500 is the best we've been all year. That "translates" to 84-78, which is pretty pathetic for a playoff team, although in this day and age we've seen it a few times (poor record playoff team.) I hope they can do better.

That's assuming they play .500 ball from this point on the rest of the year. I think we're all hoping for bigger and better things. Like 90 wins!

[pitchleague]

5.5 back in June. Anyone who says we don't have a chance is dead wrong. I peaked at Cubs.com and they're already starting the "We're still X games ahead, calm down" threads.

funny thing is, that was a weekly (almost daily) occurrence on this very message board last year. We all know how THAT turned out.

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah, that was exactly why I thought it was so funny.

[owbc]

What are the odds of us sweeping a series and every other team in the NL Central getting swept?

 

In 3 days we probably added 10-20% to our odds of making the playoffs.

 

We can't expect to continue that, obviously, but things look way, way better than last Saturday.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Here's what could make or break the season for the Brewers - just how effective are Riske and Gagne going to be once they return from the DL? Riske got off to a poor start, but if these guys can put it together to solidify the bullpen and eliminate some of the many question marks back there, this team could get on a really good roll...having a solid bullpen already in place would make it easier to prioritize acquiring a starting pitcher to bolster their rotation as well.

If the bullpen continues to be a concern, the Brewers are going to end up exactly where they finished last season - on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I posted this here a while ago when the Brewers were like 10 games out and several games under .500, but the 4-gamer at home against the Cubs at the end of July will be the make or break moment, in my opinion. They need to take at least three games there.

[TooLiveBrew]

They 'need' to take 3 of 4 for what, though -- are you meaning the NL Central title?

[Fatter than Joey]

That's just a Monte Carlo simulation, which is a valid way to figure out probabilities. As the number of simulations done get higher, the sample odds approach the real odds. 1 million simulations gets the odds accurate to at least 1 decimal point, easy.

 

Right. I know that there are different methodologies though. I think BaseballReference.com when they do their MC simulations simply redistribute the RS v. RA over the course of 162 games, with no regard to matchups, done thousands of times. etc. -- and I think that has proven to be about as accurate as the pythagorean methods used. I think the general conclusion was that the MC method was not worth the extra work that the pyth. method is.

 

I think BP.com actually takes the winning pct. of the teams, and plays out the rest of the games for each team, with specific matchups, rather than simply redistributing RS v. RA. I don't know if this methodology has been proven to be as accurate.

 

My point was not that MC sims are not valid -- rather that if you run simulations for the course of a season, and look at one day, -- given the non-static relationship of the odds of all the teams in a division or WC race -- during interleague esp., when all the NL teams could possibly lose, you may see a big jump from day to day, which is not really indicative of the typical overall daily improvement of odds.

 

I was responding to Toby's question of the validity of the overall simulation process because he thought the "odds swing" was too high. I guess it would be like looking at the win expectancy chart of a game -- A hit in the 9th may swing the win expectancy by 80 points, but that doesn't mean that the typical hit generally swings an expectancy by anything close to that.

[jeffy]

I think winning the wild card and then knocking the division champ Cubs out in the playoffs, with the final win coming at Wrgley, might even be better than winning the division.

 

In addition to 4 with the Cubs in late July, they have 4 in St. Louis shortly after the All-Star break, hopefully they will be looking to either take over or extend a wild card lead by then.

[lukevan]

2 games back of St. Louis in the wild card race...

 

Brewers, Brewers, keep turnin' up the heat!

[BrewCrewForever]

2 games back of St. Louis in the wild card race...

 

Brewers, Brewers, keep turnin' up the heat!

Exactly my thoughts, very exciting to know we are right on their heels for that wild card. Hopefully we can stay close during this 10 game road trip.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

5-5 on this roadtrip would be pretty huge. Anything more than that I think you'd have to look at as the baseball gods smiling on the Brewers.

 

Also of note is that June 27th is the first of 17 games in 17 days leading into the All-Star break. That's going to be a taxing stretch.

 

3 @ ATL

**Off Day/Travel Day**

3 @ MIN

4 @ ARI (by my count, we'll only face Webb as opposed to both Webb & Haren unless Melvin re-shuffles their rotation)

3 v. PIT

4 v. COL

3 v. CIN

 

Thankfully, we get a relatively easy homestand, but that's a rough stretch.

[Klements Bratwurst]

2008 National League - Wild Card Standings
NATIONAL	W	L	Pct	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10
St. Louis	44	33	.571	-	23-17	21-16	355	331	+24	Lost 1	4-6
Milwaukee	41	34	.547	2	25-13	16-21	343	345	-2	Won 2	7-3
Florida	40	35	.533	3	22-15	18-20	368	366	+2	Lost 1	4-6
NY Mets	37	37	.500	5.5	20-14	17-23	348	342	+6	Won 1	6-4
Atlanta	38	39	.494	6	27-12	11-27	357	314	+43	Won 2	6-4
Pittsburgh	36	40	.474	7.5	23-16	13-24	370	414	-44	Lost 1	4-6
LA Dodgers	35	40	.467	8	19-17	16-23	318	319	-1	Won 1	4-6
Houston	35	41	.461	8.5	17-16	18-25	332	369	-37	Won 1	2-8
Cincinnati	35	42	.455	9	21-17	14-25	331	374	-43	Lost 1	4-6
Colorado	32	44	.421	11.5	20-19	12-25	322	380	-58	Lost 1	6-4
San Francisco	32	44	.421	11.5	14-24	18-20	314	360	-46	Lost 2	3-7
San Diego	32	45	.416	12	21-20	11-25	289	356	-67	Lost 2	3-7
Washington	30	47	.390	14	15-23	15-24	282	386	-104	Lost 2	4-6

[MickeyDavis]

Cards go to Detroit (8-2 in their last 10), then to Kansas City (8-2 in their last 10, just swept the Cards in St. Louis), then home against the Mets and Cubs.

 

A 6-4 road trip could put us in the wild card lead.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

A 6-4 road trip could put us in the wild card lead.

I think that might be too high of a standard though. I'd be happy if we got 4-5 wins but if we did get 6-7 it would really put us in a nice position. Anyone have any road trip projection numbers?

[TheCrew07]

Russ will probably chime in with them at some point, most likely with a nifty chart to boot.

[tomter38]

Russ will probably chime in with them at some point, most likely with a nifty chart to boot.

 

Oh man now you got me all excited waiting for it!

[crewcrazy]

I'd be ecstatic with a 5-5 road trip. They're going to be playing 3 teams that are good-to-very good at home, the travel schedule has them criss-crossing the country (Milwaukee to Atlanta to Minnesota to Arizona), the bullpen was worked pretty hard at the end of the homestand, and Arizona always gives the Brewers a hard time at The BOB (it's still weird hearing it called "Chase Field"). 3 or 4 wins are probably likely, 5 wins would have me pretty excited, and 6 or 7 wins would put me in such a state of euphoria that I would black out for a few days.

[pitchleague]

if they go 4-6 on the road trip I'll be ecstatic; especially if all four wins are in Phoenix while I'm there to see them.

[Glennron]

If they go 4-6 I'd be perfectly fine. 5-5 would be great, and to be honest anything better would be pretty outstanding.

[obobo55]

I would guess at 3-7 if we didn't have Sheets going twice. He really needs to pin down those wins though. If he wins both, I can see 4-6 and be satisfied. Any better than that and we are really gonna be excited when they come home.

 

If they maintain at 5-5, they come home at 46-39. I have to believe they can get one sweep at home and maybe a 8-2 mark going to the break at 54-41. With the remaining schedule in the 2nd half, that would look real nice.

 

I am not expecting such however and I would be happy at 52-43, going 11-9 in this stretch.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

1.5 games out!

[MillerParkSouth]

I find it fairly obnoxious that right now we have the 3rd best record in the NL (by % pts over Philly) and yet if the playoffs started today, we wouldn't be in.

[dlk9s]

Good thing the playoffs don't start today, then.