Wild Card Speculation (Latest: 10 Game September Roadtrip)

[rluzinski]

I was looking at those projections Russ...and again, not a stathead, but aren't the Brewers the favorite right now to WIN the wild card? at 23% ?? Or is that just that way because they have to deduct points from the wild card slot for STL to put them into the division slot for STL?

 

They are the "favorites" sure but you are right that winning the division kind of muddies the water a little bit. I like to just looks at the expected win total for each team and adjust for how many teams will win the division.

 

BP's playoff odds bother me... the Brewers jumped 9% after last night's win. Did we really improve our odds from 1 in 5 to nearly 1 in 3 by beating the Blue Jays while a few teams ahead of us lost?

 

It was a perfect night for the Brewers, as they won and every single team with a reasonable chance of standing in the way the post season lost:

 

Brewers win

Cubs lost

Cards lost

Mets lost

Braves lost

Philli lost

Florida lost

Reds lost

 

Assuming each game was a coin flip, there was only a 1 in 256 chance of that happening. When very unlikely things happen, the odds can change quickly, even in June. I agree that it seems "too " large but that's just how it works.

[Oldcity]

Well if we're not discounting that the Mets or Braves could make a run at the wild card being 7 games back, then I don't think we should completely discount the fact that the Brewers could still push for the division being 7.5 GB.

That sort of assumes that the teams are pretty equal. Numbers indicate that the Cubs are better than the Brewers, Mets, Braves and Cardinals, so they'd be a tougher team to catch.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Playoff Odds in June are going to swing wildly no matter what, since there are still tons of games to be played and projected out over the season. For that reason, I don't put a lot of stake into them. What were the Rockies', Cubs', Yankees' and Phillies' odds at this point last year?

 

Regarding the Cubs' division lead, circumstances are a bit different than 2007, but the gap between the Cubs and Brewers is essentially the same now as it was last year. For the Brewers to have a shot at catching the Cubs, they have to shave a game or two off the 7.5 game lead between now and when they play each other in late July - if that happens, winning a 4 game series 3-1 against the Cubs at home puts them right back into the mix for the division. What I like even more is that the Cubs and Cardinals still play each other alot this season, and if either the Cubs demolish the Cardinals or they play .500 against each other, the Brewers' playoff chances will really be helped.

 

The likelihood of catching the Cubs isn't nearly as possible as catching up to and passing a severely shorthanded Cardinal club that's bound to scuffle without so many key players, so until the Cardinals are in the rear view mirror, I'm trying not to follow what happens to the Cubs so intently. You gotta finish at least 2nd in your division to be the wild card, so that should be the focus right now.

[rluzinski]

Regarding the Cubs' division lead, circumstances are a bit different than 2007, but the gap between the Cubs and Brewers is essentially the same now as it was last year.

 

I think there's a very large difference, though:

 

June 21st, 2007

Brewers: 41 - 31, GB: 0, run differential: +18

Cubs: 32 - 39, GB: 8.5, run differential: +17

 

Those numbers suggest what we all now know; the Brewers were slightly overperforming early and the Cubs were seriously underperforming. Don't get me wrong, the Cubs were still serious underdogs at that point but they were at least the Brewers' equal.

 

This year, the Cubs have the best record in baseball and have more than earned that record (+ 107 run diff. in June!!). The Brewers, on the other hand, are probably a little lucky to be 4 games over .500 right now. The Cubs are clearly the superior team.

[lcbj68c]

The Cubs are clearly the best team. However, I wouldnt say the Brewers are lucky. I think they too have earned every win they have gotten , plus threw a few more down the drain.

[razzzorsharp]

Update?

[Klements Bratwurst]

2008 National League - Wild Card Standings
NATIONAL	W	L	Pct	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10
St. Louis	42	31	.575	-	23-16	19-15	337	315	+22	Lost 2	6-4
Florida	39	33	.542	2.5	22-15	17-18	355	348	+7	Won 1	5-5
Milwaukee	38	33	.535	3	22-12	16-21	320	325	-5	Won 3	6-4
Atlanta	36	37	.493	6	25-11	11-26	338	292	+46	Won 1	4-6
NY Mets	35	36	.493	6	20-14	15-22	337	332	+5	Won 1	5-5
Pittsburgh	34	38	.472	7.5	21-15	13-23	350	390	-40	Lost 2	5-5
LA Dodgers	33	38	.465	8	18-15	15-23	301	299	+2	Won 2	4-6
Houston	33	39	.458	8.5	17-16	16-23	317	353	-36	Lost 7	1-9
Cincinnati	33	40	.452	9	21-16	12-24	316	361	-45	Lost 4	3-7
San Francisco	31	42	.425	11	14-24	17-18	292	340	-48	Lost 2	3-7
San Diego	31	42	.425	11	20-18	11-24	274	340	-66	Lost 3	5-5
Colorado	30	42	.417	11.5	18-17	12-25	306	366	-60	Won 2	6-4
Washington	29	44	.397	13	14-21	15-23	269	356	-87	Lost 2	4-6

[RayKingsForemanGrill]

I honestly don't get why people think the Cubs are uncatchable. We're 6.5 back in mid June, the Cubs haven't had any of their notorious cold streaks yet, and they are getting hurt...

 

Seems like a division title isn't too far fetched of an idea still...

[lcbj68c]

I honestly don't get why people think the Cubs are uncatchable.

http://l.yimg.com/g/images/spaceball.gif http://farm1.static.flickr.com/229/511301051_222946a511.jpg?v=0

 

 

[rluzinski]

I don't think they are uncatchable. I just find it very unlikely. If the Brewers are going to catch the Cubs, they are going to have to pass the Cardinals and most likely lead in the wildcard race, anyway. One step at a time.

[Fatter than Joey]

BP's playoff odds bother me... the Brewers jumped 9% after last night's win. Did we really improve our odds from 1 in 5 to nearly 1 in 3 by beating the Blue Jays while a few teams ahead of us lost?

 

You have to keep in mind as well, that what BP does is runs a simulation 1M times and then charts the results. It's really not an "odds" formula in the strictest sense of the word.

 

As Russ pointed out -- the Brewers "odds" are not static in relation to the other teams either -- that is to say it is not as if the Brewers are moving up and down static rungs on a ladder -- the other teams/rungs are moving just like the Brewers do.

 

If each team that loses has their odds decrease, that decrease has to become an increase somewhere else -- If one NL WC team wins and seven NL WC teams lose (especially more probable in interleague play), that one winning WC team is likely to capture the all of the decreases in the seven losing teams (in general terms).

[naivin]

I honestly don't get why people think the Cubs are uncatchable.

 

Pretty simple...Sheets, Suppan, Parra, Bush, McClung...it perhaps has more to do with the Brewers as it does the Cubs. If the Brewers don't acquire a front line starter, I don't think they have any shot at the division, and the WC is unlikely.

 

Now, if there is any significance to the Zambrano injury, suddenly the group above doesn't look quite as bad.

[Klements Bratwurst]

and the WC is unlikely

If I am a Cards fan, I might be saying the same thing about winning the Wild Card with Wainright, Looper, Lohse, Wellemeyer, and Piniero. The Brewers according to PECOTA have the best odds at winning the Wild Card right now. They are definitely in my opinion have much more than an "unlikely" chance. They also have a shot at catching the Cubs, but I agree adding a new arm would certainly help. I also think another bat would be nice to add (Ray Durham or my Brian Roberts pipe dream).

[rluzinski]

You have to keep in mind as well, that what BP does is runs a simulation 1M times and then charts the results. It's really not an "odds" formula in the strictest sense of the word.

 

That's just a Monte Carlo simulation, which is a valid way to figure out probabilities. As the number of simulations done get higher, the sample odds approach the real odds. 1 million simulations gets the odds accurate to at least 1 decimal point, easy.

[lcbj68c]

Russ,

 

For all your knowledge of math, statistics, and probabilities, do you believe in the math? I guess what I mean is, do you believe that the Brewers have the best odds in the formulas presented because being run 1 million times, it's pretty damn close? I know I'm not wording that to make sense, but I guess for example... 1 +1 = 2. If you run that 1 million times, the answer is 2. Are there times, specifically this instance because you know the Brewers, that you believe the formula and odds to be wrong, despite what you are told will happen considering it was run 1 million times?

[naivin]

The next two weeks could be a real key for the Brewers, with a potentially brutal road trip coming up prior to a potentially very good homestand prior to the All-Star break, the next 14 games could go a long way in determining where they stand at the trade deadline, and making decisions easier, or much more difficult. If they can find a way to play around .500 or better the next 14 games, they should be in a position to put themselves firmly in the buyer category when the All-Star break rolls around. However, if they go get their brains beat in on the road, as is usually the norm, they face the prospect of floundering around .500 as the deadline approaches, and making the buy/sell question extremely difficult to answer - with Sheets' FA looming, it makes answering that question correctly that much more critical.

 

Teams like KC, Seattle, San Diego, San Francisco all know they aren't going anywhere. I am a firm believer that Doug should strike first and go get a pitcher now, instead of waiting. Will he have to overpay somewhat? Yeah, probably, but if you can translate that into a few extra wins over the next month, you end up giving yourslef an opportunity you might not otherwise have. I would consider the Brewers buyers now. If the fail to buy however, a bad trip through Atlanta, minnesota, and Arizona, coupld pretty easily turn them into sellers. Your going to overpay for pitching anyway. Might as well overpay sooner than later to try to maximize the return.

[lcbj68c]

Absolutely, I would buy now. The price might be higher now, but if it's starting pitching, that could mean even more starts/wins. We need the mindset that we are contenders now and not wait until after the road trip to decide if it's true or not. That's not going to happen, but that's what should happen.

[Bucky Rules]

Here's some fodder to think about when determining whether or not the Cubs are catchable. There's been a lot of discussion about the schedules to date of the two teams. Here's a little closer look -- and it is a big difference, IMO.

• The two teams have played h2h for six games. The Brewers are 4-2 in those games -- two game advantage Brewers.
• Among common opponents at home the Brewers are 10-5 while the Cubs are 13-2 -- three game advanatage Cubs.
• Common opponents on the road: Brewers 10-12, Cubs 9-11 -- slight advantage Brewers.
• Uncommon opponents at home -- Cubs have played MIL(2-4), PIT (5-1), COL(4-0), NYM(2-0), SD(3-1); Brewers have played SF(3-0), STL(4-2), PHI(1-1), FLA(1-2), MIN(1-2), TOR(2-0). Yes... the Cubs have an outstanding record in those games against teams not named the Brewers, but there is no comparison in the level of competition -- which for the most part the Cubs will still have to face - and vice versa.
• Uncommon road opponents -- Cubs have played PHI(1-2), SD(2-1), LAD(2-2), TOR(2-1), TB(0-2); Brewers have played CHI(4-2), NYM(2-1), FLA(0-3), BOS(0-3). Here again, the Brewers schedule has been tougher even if you consider Boston and TB a wash.

I don't see any reason to believe that the Cubs will not come back down to a very approachable number of wins when you consider not just the number of home games vs road games, but also the level of competition in those games. They've played 28 games vs PIT, COL, WASH, SF and SD. We've played 13 (10 of them on the road). That will end at some point here.

[TooLiveBrew]

They've played 28 games vs PIT, COL, WASH, SF and SD. We've played 13 (10 of them on the road). That will end at some point here.

 

While that's true, it's been discussed at length here & doesn't really have much impact on the odds that are being discussed right now (since the schedule is figured in). I think you're right that we should feast on the weaker opponents, and that the Cubs have gotten fat off some of them. However, I just don't think that adding up all the 'columns' like you did (& don't get me wrong, thanks for doing that number-crunching -- very interesting to read through) says much about how the rest of the season might go.

 

It's still just early enough in the season (imo) that records aren't going to be reliable to use to determine if we can catch the Cubs. Their remaining schedule may be tougher, but they're also a better team than the Brewers this season (the Zambrano injury may change that some). I await the results of that MRI very anxiously, even though I'm not hoping for a serious injury (too tacky imo)

[Bucky Rules]

TLB -- I hear what you're saying. But, allow me to live in ignorant bliss on this subject. I was trying to say (to at least myself) that if we played the same schedule as the Cubs to this point we wouldn't be discussing the wildcard as our best chance. I realize that in the grand scheme of things our 2-7 record against Florida and Minnesota probably wouldn't be 4-3 if we were playing SD and COL. But, it might be. And then we'd only be three back with a whole lot of head to head matchups to play. It's plausible, if not likely. And I look at Chicago's roster, and it screams to me that they'll be coming back to Earth in a big way - even though Soto and Fukudome have been very nice upgrades for them this season.

[TooLiveBrew]

TLB -- I hear what you're saying. But, allow me to live in ignorant bliss on this subject. I was trying to say (to at least myself) that if we played the same schedule as the Cubs to this point we wouldn't be discussing the wildcard as our best chance.

Hehe -- sorry. Live on brother, live on! I wasn't trying to poop on your post. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I realize that in the grand scheme of things our 2-7 record against Florida and Minnesota [wouldn't necessarily] be 4-3 if we were playing SD and COL. But, it might be. And then we'd only be three back with a whole lot of head to head matchups to play. It's plausible, if not likely.

I re-phrased your wording so that I can agree 100% with ya. Anything can happen with this great sport -- just look at today's game.

And I look at Chicago's roster, and it screams to me that they'll be coming back to Earth in a big way - even though Soto and Fukudome have been very nice upgrades for them this season.

Heck, Soto is probably one of the Cubs most due to come back to earth. Then again, his BABIP has regressed all the way down to .342 (was .486 in '07!), so he's probably only going to get hotter.

Kinda funny to note that right now Fukudome also sports a .342 BABIP. I can't see either Soto or Kosuke keeping their current pace through the rest of the season.


EDIT: Some other Cubs' BABIPs, just for fun --

Theriot - .338 (that's been falling, too, iirc)
DeRosa - .348 (he's shown some ability to sustain a higher one, though -- .322 career & no lower than .343 since '06)
Ramirez - .327 (wtheck is up with his BBs?! 40! Doesn't he know his career high is 50?)**
Lee - .300 (career .324)
Soriano - .298 (career .312)
Edmonds - .279 (career .332; not sure what his is just w/CHC, but for June '08, it's .438!)

** Aramis Ramirez's unfathomably well-improved BB rate has to be near the top of the list of reasons why the Cubs are up on us. The guy looks like a very much improved offensive player.

[razzzorsharp]

No game for the Marlins today so we are now tied for 2nd with StL having a 2 game lead.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Since it was pointed out by razzorsharp that the Marlins are idle, here you go. Nice three days! Atlanta had another 1 run loss too on the road today. 2008 National League - Wild Card Standings
NATIONAL	W	L	Pct	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10
St. Louis	42	32	.568	-	23-17	19-15	338	319	+19	Lost 3	5-5
Florida	39	33	.542	2	22-15	17-18	355	348	+7	Won 1	5-5
Milwaukee	39	33	.542	2	23-12	16-21	328	332	-4	Won 4	7-3
NY Mets	35	36	.493	5.5	20-14	15-22	337	332	+5	Won 1	5-5
Atlanta	36	38	.486	6	25-11	11-27	342	297	+45	Lost 1	4-6
LA Dodgers	34	38	.472	7	18-15	16-23	308	303	+5	Won 3	4-6
Pittsburgh	34	39	.466	7.5	21-15	13-24	358	403	-45	Lost 3	4-6
Houston	33	39	.458	8	17-16	16-23	317	353	-36	Lost 7	1-9
Cincinnati	33	41	.446	9	21-17	12-24	320	368	-48	Lost 5	3-7
San Francisco	31	42	.425	10.5	14-24	17-18	292	340	-48	Lost 2	3-7
San Diego	31	43	.419	11	20-18	11-25	275	342	-67	Lost 4	4-6
Colorado	30	42	.417	11	18-17	12-25	306	366	-60	Won 2	6-4
Washington	29	45	.392	13	14-21	15-24	272	365	-93	Lost 3	4-6

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So that series in St. Louis on July 21st might mean a little bit, eh?

[pitchleague]

well, thanks to the Royals, they've given me confidence about the wild card. Thanks to the Rays, they've given me "hope" once again for the division. Still, there's a long way to go.

 

I realize that earlier in this thread I kind of threw in a towel, so to speak. I'm still not ready to believe that this team is a true playoff team. But they're getting there, that's for sure. Six over .500 is the best we've been all year. That "translates" to 84-78, which is pretty pathetic for a playoff team, although in this day and age we've seen it a few times (poor record playoff team.) I hope they can do better.