Wild Card Speculation (Latest: 10 Game September Roadtrip)

[BrewCrewForever]

We got spanked last night, but not spanked like the Cards did. Ouch let the Phillies score 22 runs. Still only 4 back of the WC.

[naivin]

As I look at the WC standings, the NL is just a suckfest. I think the injury to his calf will be the impetus to have the elbow surgery he needs, and put an end his season, and likely the Cardinals' along with him. The Marlins are pretty good. I would suspect the Mets and Braves will be heard from at some point. I still think Houston has potential. Maybe the Dodgers. Maybe Colorado, but that's about it.

 

I think the key for Milwaukee will be to stay in that top 2 or 3 spots for the next 30-45 days, so they don't find themselves in the position of having to jump over 5-6 teams to win it. Beyond that, since it would appear that the Brewers could have as good a shot as anyone, I think they should be the team to go out and grab a starting pitcher sooner rather than later, once teams start making guys available. Not sure who that guy would be exactly, but not only could he help you get there, but once you do, pitching is what matters. Hopefully a playoff rotation of Sheets, Unnamed Savior, and Suppan would certainly seem to at least have a chance. I will say that IMO, if they don't go get someone, with the current rotation, they have no shot at the WC.

 

The formula for the Brewers...

 

Hang around --> Get a pitcher --> Clean up against a seemingly favorable schedule in July, Aug, and Sep.

[ G E T / S T A Y H E A L T H Y ]

[crewcrazy]

I'll start worrying about the Braves when they can figure out how to win on the road again. While the Brewers haven't been world-beaters away from home, either, the Braves just flat-out stink away from Turner Field. I really don't think the Mets will do much damage unless they improbably fire Willie Randolph soon and go out to get some bullpen help. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dodgers make a run out in the West, though, especially with how bad that division has been. Colorado has gotten off to such a bad start that they'd need another ridiculously long winning streak to get back into it.

 

In the end, I think it'll be between St. Louis, Florida, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles. I agree with naivin that the Brewers should just focus on staying in the top 3 spots for the wildcard -- if they can avoid having to jump over too many teams, it'll definitely be a benefit in the long run...especially since they have the benefit of games against the Cards to directly make up games.

[pitchleague]

well, with the suckitude put up the last two nights, I'm not sure this team is a Wild Card ready team. They still need one thing to pull it all together.

 

I'm not giving up and I'm not saying that they have no shot, but this Brewers team seriously needs some "glue" to make this team come together as one. I really thought tonight's game was going to be the one that makes them begin to gel, especially the Branyan HR and the Prince near-HR (correct call, by the way).

 

The Brewers just are not playing as a good team right now. They may figure it out here in the next 6 weeks (before the deadline) and they may not. Right now, though, they don't look anything like a Wild Card/playoff caliber team. Thankfully, as someone else pointed out, neither are any of the other teams in the NL.

[ELCABALLO45]

Wild Card speculation in early to mid June? Awesome

[MickeyDavis]

We're closer to last place than to the wild card.

[LUKE232323]

And a lot closer to bad than good.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

And also in 3rd place in the Wild Card standings. I'll look at this with the glass half full.

[pebadger]

Well, the Brewers are about middle of the NL pack in runs allowed, but have scored more runs than only the Nats and the four teams under .500 in the NL West.

 

If you think the pitching holds about where it is now, but the offense improves to where many think it should be operating, they have a decent shot at the WC. I'd just feel a lot better about this team if they quit playing so many close games, because sooner or later the pen issues will get worse than they already are if that continues. Riske needs to come back strong. If Gagne can do anything in terms of being a 7th or 8th inning guy, that's an added bonus. Obviously any injury to the top 3 starters would be devastating. Hopefully McClung continues to flourish in his new role.

 

Then the big question becomes who, if anyone, does anything at/before the deadline.

 

But it's all moot if the Brewers don't start scoring runs.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Then the big question becomes who, if anyone, does anything at/before the deadline.

I would be willing to bet that a deal will be made by Melvin at the deadline and it will involve one or any of Hall, Weeks, or Hardy to bring in another good starting pitcher. We just can't afford to have the inconsistency of Dave Bush in our starting rotation anymore. If we can get rid of this piece of garbage for a #3 type starting pitcher, the Wild Card chances multiply.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Lost a game in the standings over the weekend. St. Louis gets KC for three games at home. Florida is on the coast beginning a 6 game trip to Seattle and Oakland. Our run scored differential also took a beating too this weekend. 2008 National League - Wild Card Standings
NATIONAL	W	L	Pct	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	STRK	L10
St. Louis	42	29	.592	-	23-14	19-15	334	310	Won 2	6-4
Florida	37	32	.536	4	22-15	15-17	337	339	Won 1	5-5
Milwaukee	36	33	.522	5	20-12	16-21	308	321	Won 1	5-5
Atlanta	34	36	.486	7.5	25-11	9-25	321	282	Lost 1	3-7
Pittsburgh	34	36	.486	7.5	21-15	13-21	343	366	Won 1	5-5
NY Mets	33	35	.485	7.5	20-14	13-21	322	316	Won 1	3-7
Houston	33	37	.471	8.5	17-16	16-21	311	345	Lost 5	2-8
Cincinnati	33	38	.465	9	21-14	12-24	314	352	Lost 2	4-6
LA Dodgers	31	38	.449	10	18-15	13-23	292	297	Lost 5	3-7
San Diego	31	40	.437	11	20-18	11-22	269	324	Lost 1	7-3
San Francisco	30	40	.429	11.5	13-22	17-18	281	322	Lost 3	5-5
Washington	29	42	.408	13	14-21	15-21	266	343	Won 3	4-6
Colorado	28	41	.406	13	16-16	12-25	291	355	Won 2	7-3

[RU Rah Rah]

I kind of worry about the Mets. They are a mess right now, but they do have a bunch of talent. I think they could make a move once they resolve the Willie Randolph drama.

 

And look the Braves. Even they weren't so atrocious on the road, they would be more in the thick of things. You have to think that they will play slightly better the rest of the way.

 

I guess I'm worried about the second-best team in the East, whoever that turns out to be.

[Klements Bratwurst]

I guess I'm worried about the second-best team in the East, whoever that turns out to be.

I certainly agree. What's more, they both have positive run differentials as well. The Braves losses in those one run games are staggering. If they start winning those, look out.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Only 4 games out now that St. Louis lost tonight! Yay!

[dlk9s]

And look the Braves. Even they weren't so atrocious on the road, they would be more in the thick of things. You have to think that they will play slightly better the rest of the way.

I don't think the Braves will have enough pitchers with arms still attached to their bodies to compete for a playoff spot.

 

[splitterpfj]

I don't think the Braves will have enough pitchers with arms still attached to their bodies to compete for a playoff spot.

 

I agree with this, and the Mets may have lost Reyes tonight. The Brewers may be in the best position they've been in all season.

[Glennron]

The Braves are 3-18 in 1 run games, though. Even if they were something like 7-14, which would still be bad/unlucky, they'd only be 2.5 out of first in the East. I'd think they'll be around a while longer.

[razzzorsharp]

Florida lost tonight, half game back. I would love it if the Brewers had a 33% chance at the playoffs, that's a lot better than it ever was during the lean years. The last couple years all I ever wanted was a pennet chase, now I am a bit greedy but I want to see a playoff game, heck they could lose it and I would be content (for the time being).

[Klements Bratwurst]

2008 National League - Wild Card Standings- before games 6/18/08
NATIONAL	W	L	Pct	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	STRK	L10
St. Louis	42	30	.583	-	23-15	19-15	335	312	Lost 1	6-4
Florida	38	33	.535	3.5	22-15	16-18	347	345	Lost 1	5-5
Milwaukee	37	33	.529	4	21-12	16-21	315	321	Won 2	5-5
Atlanta	35	37	.486	7	25-11	10-26	333	290	Lost 1	3-7
NY Mets	34	36	.486	7	20-14	14-22	332	328	Lost 1	4-6
Pittsburgh	34	37	.479	7.5	21-15	13-22	348	382	Lost 1	5-5
Houston	33	38	.465	8.5	17-16	16-22	316	351	Lost 6	2-8
Cincinnati	33	39	.458	9	21-15	12-24	315	355	Lost 3	3-7
LA Dodgers	32	38	.457	9	18-15	14-23	295	298	Won 1	4-6
San Diego	31	41	.431	11	20-18	11-23	269	332	Lost 2	6-4
San Francisco	31	41	.431	11	14-23	17-18	290	333	Lost 1	4-6
Colorado	29	42	.408	12.5	17-17	12-25	302	364	Won 1	6-4
Washington	29	43	.403	13	14-21	15-22	267	345	Lost 1	4-6

[rluzinski]

BP says about a 29% chance:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

 

The main teams the Brewers have to worry about for the wildcard are the Cardinals, Mets and Braves. That's not to say another team wouldn't win it but those are the teams I'm still worried about. You'd really like to think that the Cardinals are destined to fade, however.

[DannoMac21]

Well if we're not discounting that the Mets or Braves could make a run at the wild card being 7 games back, then I don't think we should completely discount the fact that the Brewers could still push for the division being 7.5 GB.

[sheethead]

Time to leap the overachieving Marlins today. I still think the Brewers have a shot at the Cubs. Hurry back Yo!

[lcbj68c]

BP says about a 29% chance:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

 

The main teams the Brewers have to worry about for the wildcard are the Cardinals, Mets and Braves. That's not to say another team wouldn't win it but those are the teams I'm still worried about. You'd really like to think that the Cardinals are destined to fade, however.

I was looking at those projections Russ...and again, not a stathead, but aren't the Brewers the favorite right now to WIN the wild card? at 23% ?? Or is that just that way because they have to deduct points from the wild card slot for STL to put them into the division slot for STL?

[And That]

BP's playoff odds bother me... the Brewers jumped 9% after last night's win. Did we really improve our odds from 1 in 5 to nearly 1 in 3 by beating the Blue Jays while a few teams ahead of us lost?

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the focus should still be on the division where the Brewers have more control over their own fate. Certainly the WC race figures in, but it takes until August to really see who the true contenders are in that race.

 

The Mets are the team I'd be concerned with. They are capable of going off at any time. The Braves losing Schmoltz was a crucial blow. I just don't see that team going on a roll. I actually still think a team like the Reds could get back into it to. If Harang starts pitching like he can, that would give them a terrific top of the rotation. Arroyo's had some good games in the past month too and he's a streaky type pitcher.

 

They also haven't hit like they are capable of. If they do that, look out.