Wild Card Speculation (Latest: 10 Game September Roadtrip)

[dlk9s]

I hate to say this but i don't think we are going to make the playoffs That road trip to Chicago and Philly scare me to death. I hope the philies beat the mets and go into first and stay there. I am more worried about the phillies than the Mets.

Yeah, those 7 road games are little scary, but I don't see how you can say that you actually don't think we'll make the playoffs. It's definitely possible that we don't make it, but I think you'll be hard pressed to find another person that will even say, right now, that our chances are better to miss the playoffs than make it.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

Well, a win tonight over St. Louis or a loss by the Nationals, and they are mathematically eliminated from the Wild Card picture. That's one less team to worry about.

[dlk9s]

I was just thinking that it would be pretty cool for the Brewers and Geoff Jenkins to square off in the playoffs.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

Updated graph after last nights games. I've added AZ into the chart, still too many games left to assume anything for the division. Division leaders have an asterisk.

 

Green Row is Brewers hypothetical over the last 30.

CHC row is what they would need to do for us to overtake them

Rows below Milwaukee are what those teams would have to do to catch Milwaukee.

Again this is to overtake, subtract a game to tie.

 

http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/3593/playoffs827go5.jpg

[SeriesFinale]

Thanks for that Fido...it's very reassuring, especially given the Brew Crew's schedule versus the competition's (for the Wild Card, at least).

 

That said, I do think we need to go at least 17-13 down the stretch to assure that playoff spot--at the very least. It's hard to forget the NL East race/Rockies last year, although those were historic anomalies.

[Chio151]

I look forward to the pink part of that graph continuing to grow. Thank you for the visualization. Tonight would be HUGE for us.

[Oldcity]

It was huge to win one out of two. That was a huge swing in playoff chances last night, at least compared to most other individual games. The Brewers are in good shape either way, but another win tonight would be quite huge.

[brwrsfan]

It's early yet, but if we can beat the Cardinals tonight, I just have a feeling they're done. Stick a fork in them. You could just see the life, energy and hopes get sucked right out of the crowd and the players when Braun hit the HR last night. Getting swept in a series that they themselves claimed, "They have to win" would be very, very devastating....not to mention the 5 1/2 game lead we would hold with 29 to play.

[RU Rah Rah]

Brewers can really directly mess up the Cards, Mets, and Phillies with these head-to-head games. Let's hope the trend continues from last night...

[lcbj68c]

I said the same thing last night. A Brewers win tonight puts STL 6 back in the loss column with 29 to play. I just dont think they have enough talent to make up for a very very very poor bullpen.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I'm excited, based on our recent road play, but still worried that the final roadtrip of the season (the only road games left on our schedule after this weekend), will doom us. I think its essential that we take 2/3 from Pitt this weekend, and atleast maintain (if not increase) our Wildcard lead over the 10 game homestand prior to that last roadtrip.

 

I think the Cardinals have proven they aren't going away, and I would really hate to need two or three wins against the Cubs in our final series to clinch. Chicago will be going for the nail in the coffin (to clinch the division) when we travel there, Philly will be in a dogfight for a playoff berth, and we always struggle at Cinci. I'm dreading that we come back from that trip 2-8, and trail the WC leader by 1-2 games heading into the final week.

 

An 8-2 homestand, with no better than 6-4 (for the cards, phils, and mets) would ease my fears, but i think this is going to go right down to the wire

[SeriesFinale]

I think 5-5 is very possible...a split in Philly, a series win in Cincinnati, and a win in Chicago

[thablingster]

I honestly think this road trip will decide the fate of our season. I figure we'll at least hold serve at home, but both the Cubs and Phillies are good teams and the Reds always play us tough. If we can at least go .500 we will be okay, but if we put up a 3-7 or worse we'll be in some trouble.

[Cadillac4274]

but it sure is nice to not have to see Dunn and Griffey in that lineup anymore! We roughed up Volquez the last time we saw them too, so I don't think there is any reason to doubt us coming out with a series win there.

[rluzinski]

I think the Cardinals have proven they aren't going away

 

Right now, the Cardinals have a 9% chance of making the playoffs, according to BP. One small mistake and they will become irrelevant.

 

The great thing about that last season series is that the Cubs won't be playing for anything. No Harden or Zambrano.

[Sundown Kid]

If the Brewers only went 15-14 the rest of the way, the Cardinals would still have to play .679 baseball (19-9) to pass the Brewers and the Phillies would have to play at a .714 (20-8) clip. A 5-5 road trip (especially if it included a split or better in Philly) would likely suffice.

[naivin]

The great thing about that last season series is that the Cubs won't be playing for anything. No Harden or Zambrano.

The Cubs are definitely our allies at this point (except when we play them of course). I don't care how many times we play them yet, the division is a done deal and the Brewers are playing for the WC. I have felt that way for months and it has only been reinforced lately. The good news is they still see the Cardinals 6 times, the Phillies 3 more times, and the Mets 4 times. All the Brewers need to do is win some games. I posted my fears about the trip to Chicago and Philly a couple weeks ago and they are still there. Just gotta hold our own.

 

Go Cubs Go! Go Cubs Go! Hey Chicago, whadda you say...

[BrewCrewRising]

I find it hard to think of the Cubs as our allies. I know for the sake of the wild card it's true, but I'm wondering if anybody will beat them in the post season. I'm thinking way ahead here, and anything can happen, but that pitching is pretty good. Ours not so much with the exception of CC and Benny. The rest is either undependable or darn shaky.

[mkm13]

I'm thinking way ahead here, and anything can happen, but that pitching is pretty good. Ours not so much with the exception of CC and Benny. The rest is either undependable or darn shaky.

You only need 3 starters in the playoffs. I would take CC, Sheets, and Parra against anyone and I do not think anyone will want to face us either. The cubs have better pitching depth which could help, but our front end is as good as anyones.

 

Their bigger advantage is on us will be offense. They do not have a Craig Counsell type player at 3rd base.

[OglivieHomePerm]

Does anyone know if Baseball Prospectus archives the postseason odds from previous seasons? I'm interested in seeing what the Brewers odds were at different points last season. Google'd it, but no luck so far.

[Fear The Chorizo]

After their July and Early August meltdowns, I'm sure the Brewers' playoff odds in 2007 were hovering around 50%, since the NL Central was way out of the wild card chase, and the Brewers/Cubs stayed within 3 games of each other until the very end.

 

Am I wrong, or are the postseason odds based almost entirely off the league/division standings, with maybe a small boost/hit for schedule strength and pythagorean record? The percentages are good to keep in perspective the significance of the # of teams you trail for a playoff spot, not just the # of games

[dlk9s]

I find it hard to think of the Cubs as our allies. I know for the sake of the wild card it's true, but I'm wondering if anybody will beat them in the post season. I'm thinking way ahead here, and anything can happen, but that pitching is pretty good. Ours not so much with the exception of CC and Benny. The rest is either undependable or darn shaky.

Our pitching, up and down the roster, has been pretty damn good lately, even with Riske's bad inning. If we make the playoffs, I would not feel bad at all seeing Bush or Suppan go out to the mound. Overall, the Cubs' pitching seems better to me, and their hitting obviously is, but I wouldn't count out our starting five.

[Fear The Chorizo]

We all knew the Cubs had a very good team to start the season - with the years Theriot, Soto, Fontenot are having, coupled with a couple of GREAT moves to get solid CF contributions from Edmunds and Johnson, and the overall health of their pitching staff (including Wood, Dempster, Harden), they are a great regular season team.

 

At this point, the Cubs would have to go into a complete meltdown for the Brewers to win the division from them - while I'm not completely throwing in the towel, the way the Cubs managed to win their game last night makes me think they're not going to be losing often enough to give the Brewers a shot at them (unless we expect to win all 6 remaining games against them, not a legitimate hope, IMO). Brewers had their shot to take control of the division at the end of July and crapped down their leg, so while I'd love for Milwaukee to get back in the division race, I'm also tipping my cap to having to try and chase down a team that's got a legit shot at over 100 wins.

 

The Cards remain the main wildcard opponent, and treading water over the past two games maintained our 4 game loss column lead, and it shaved 2 games off the remaining schedule - Cards also have 7 left with the Dbacks, 6 with the Cubs, and 3 with the Marlins. If the Brewers play .500 baseball or better, it's going to be tough for the Cards to make up that kind of ground without any more head to head matchups left.

 

Funny thing about the regular season is that it doesn't mean anything once the playoffs start - if Milwaukee can get in as the wild card, I like their chances. If the 2006 Cardinals can win a World Series, anyone in the playoffs can. I can't think of anything sweeter than knocking off the Cubs in the NLCS...actually, the only thing sweeter would be winning the series that would take place after that - let's not get ahead of things, though!

[OglivieHomePerm]

I found a site that has the 2007 odds.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/2007/MLB.html

Per that site, the Brewers peaked at 82% chance of making the playoffs last year after beating the cubs 13-4 on June 30th.

That's roughly where they are right now as well...albeit with only 1 month left to go this time.

[rluzinski]

I don't think the Cubs have any real advantage over the Brewers in the playoff pitching department. Their advantage is in the offensive department and it's huge. The Brewers' #7 and #8 hitters are just terrible.