Wild Card Speculation (Latest: 10 Game September Roadtrip)

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

St. Louis lost to Cincy tonight. Florida is down 3-0 to the Phillies as well. Right now we are within 4 games of the wild card and it's our only realistic shot at this point to be playing in October. St. Louis is going to lose some games due to the major injuries and Florida is going to lose some games because they have very little experience. Let the wild card discussion begin!

 

 

EDIT: Removed "Official" from the subject line --BtA

[bullox]

St. Louis is going to lose some games due to the major injuries and Florida is going to lose some games because they have very little experience.

And Milwaukee will lose some games because of both of the above, with myriad other reasons as well. That said, I still hold out hope for the Crew. Just saying that the Brewers suffer from both of the above afflictions that you say will doom others in the race.

 

[Klements Bratwurst]

2008 National League - Wild Card Standings
NATIONAL	W	L	Pct	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	STRK	L10
St. Louis	40	28	.588	-	21-13	19-15	322	282	Lost 1	6-4
Florida	36	30	.545	3	22-15	14-15	324	325	Lost 1	5-5
Milwaukee	35	31	.530	4	19-10	16-21	298	300	Won 2	7-3
Pittsburgh	33	34	.493	6.5	21-15	12-19	325	345	Won 2	6-4
Houston	33	34	.493	6.5	17-13	16-21	306	322	Lost 2	3-7
Atlanta	32	35	.478	7.5	25-11	7-24	307	274	Lost 6	3-7
NY Mets	31	34	.477	7.5	18-13	13-21	304	305	Lost 1	3-7
Cincinnati	32	36	.471	8	20-12	12-24	307	336	Won 1	4-6
LA Dodgers	31	35	.470	8	18-15	13-20	281	275	Lost 2	4-6
San Francisco	30	37	.448	9.5	13-19	17-18	277	308	Won 1	6-4
San Diego	30	38	.441	10	20-18	10-20	253	305	Won 2	7-3
Colorado	26	40	.394	13	16-16	10-24	280	347	Lost 1	6-4
Washington	26	42	.382	14	14-21	12-21	248	333	Lost 2	2-8
Glos

[BrewCrewForever]

I think we have a great shot at the Wild Card. Even with the Soriano injury I just don't see us catching the Cubs as much as it pains me to say that. However I think we can win the Wild Card. Only 4 back right now, it is within reach especially with this 9 game home stand coming up if we go 7-2 or better we should be able to gain at least a couple more games maybe more.

[kiwi brewer]

what has been a somewhat disappointing season for most of us fans so far - be honest - we are in a really good position right now if you look at those standings. after all that's gone on with not getting production out of big money guys, an injury to gallardo, some very questionable managerial decisions and poor play on the road again (which is why today made me happy) i really like where the Brewers sit right now.

 

i like it a lot better than being on top and having that added pressure. say what you will, but this may be the best place in the standings for this young team. may suit us better in the long run to be an attacker instead of a target.

 

go Crew. let's win all three interleague series.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Here is the St. Louis Cardinals interleague Schedule coming up which starts immediately after this weekend when they host the Phillies for 3 this weekend:

Vs. KC (3)

At Boston (3)

At Detroit (3)

At KC (3)

 

The 9 game road trip starts in a tough place (ask Ned about it), but I think the Cards might benefit from playing 6 games against KC. I hope Pujols being out even things out a bit. Hopefully Detroit gets it going too.

[Blindcheck]

I like the Brewers chances to make the playoffs this year...With as poorly as the team has played this year, they are still on pace to win 86 games....

 

Winning the Division is not out of the question...The Cubs will have a tough stretch at some point this season and the Brewers need to keep getting good pitching and they will get right back into it.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Just saying that the Brewers suffer from both of the above afflictions that you say will doom others in the race.

I agree with that. I didn't say the Cards and Marlins were doomed. I just said they were going to lose some games, which I was getting at the fact that they have a great chance to gain some ground right now with the upcoming homestand so they can be in a position to grind this out in September.

 

If I had to pick a favorite between the Brewers, Cards, and Marlins at this point, I'd take the Brewers based on talent and experience. The Brewers had a pennant race last year so it's not like they are foreign to this. The problem with my assertion is that there are going to be many other teams involved like the Mets, Dodgers, and Braves who all have just about equal talent as the Brewers and are playing like complete crap right now, but will definitely all make runs at the Wild Card.

[Oldcity]

I wouldn't have thought the Brewers would get the Wildcard before the season. Between the Braves, Mets, Padres and I guess Rockies, I figured it would go to one of them. I figured the Braves and Phillies would make it out of the East. The fact that the Mets and Braves have struggled makes it attainable.

 

That said, the fact that the Brewers are still being outscored on the season puts a bit of a damper on that.

[endaround]

Yeah, but thats really an artifact of that Cubs game still floating around

[Tbadder]

Isn't this way too early? Seriously.

[brewmann04]

i AGREE If the Brewers continue to play well they will have a legit shot at the wild card

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Isn't this way too early? Seriously.

A lot can happen because we aren't even to the halfway point, yet, but sorry for bringing up that our chances at the division are about 5% right now, so this thread will be dedicated to our chances at the Wild Card. Jeez.

[splitterpfj]

Weird stuff happens sometimes, all last season, people were telling me here that AZ had no shot at the playoffs, because they had been outscored by their opponents.

 

Nobody knows anything yet, injuries are changing the landscape, and will continue to do so, the interleague schedule isn't a level playing field, some teams have had a lot more home games than others, etc.

 

Prior to the season, I absolutely thought the Brewers were the NL wildcard team, then when they lost Gallardo, I thought the season was over. As it stands, the Brewers look like they're in great shape, 4 games behind a team that has just lost perhaps its 2 most important players to injury, with a mountain of home games coming our way over the next six weeks.

 

There are 29 games left before the All-Star Break - 19 of those are home games. Coming out of the break, the Crew plays 7 on the road, then closes July with 7 at home, including 4 with the Cubs. To me, the key date is August 1, the trade deadline will have passed, the home-road splits will be evened up, we'll have four more games done with both St Louis and Chicago, we'll know a lot more about who stayed healthy, etc.

 

If the Brewers stay close like this, September should favor them. In September, the Brewers will play 16 home games, with just 10 road games - they close with 6 at home.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Weird stuff happens sometimes

Yes and that fact that it would be weird for the Brewers to win the division this year would put the odds at about 5%. Russ, does that sound about right?

[zzzmanwitz]

Yes and that fact that it would be weird for the Brewers to win the division this year would put the odds at about 5%. Russ, does that sound about right?

Playoff odds found here.

[Oldcity]

BP gives the Brewers a 6.5% chance at the division.

 

Edit: I just lost the duel to zzman with a bullet to the gullet. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

BP gives the Brewers a 6.5% chance at the division.

Ah so it looks like my guess was pretty close. And we have a 22.79% chance at the Wild Card so that's why I started this thread because it seems the Wild Card is a lot more realistic and those odds will only go up with the major injuries to St. Louis if we can stay healthy in our starting rotation.

[splitterpfj]

PECOTA thinks the Marlins will absolutely disappear, and gives much better odds for the Braves, Mets or Dodgers to win the wildcard.

 

The Cards and Brewers are the top two for the wildcard, I hope that proves to be true.

[Klements Bratwurst]

PECOTA thinks the Marlins will absolutely disappear

The Marlins schedule to the All Star Break:

 

@ Tampa Bay (3)

@ Seattle (3)

@ Oakland (3)

Vs. Tampa Bay (3)

Vs. Arizona (3)

Vs. Washington (3)

@ Colorado (4)

@ San Diego (3)

@ Los Angeles (4)

 

And I thought we had some rough road trips. An 11 game West Coast road trip to end the first half. Plus another swing out there to play Seattle and Oakland just a week or so earlier. I think PECOTA'S prediction might come true....

[Fear The Chorizo]

That 6.5% chance at winning the division can be drastically altered by trades, injuries, or slumps, plus some scheduling quirks. I look at it the same way as I look at that stupid win probability chart that gets spit out during the course of a game thread...Brewers had a 75% chance of winning the game until the opponent hit a 3-run homer in the 8th to put them down 2, then it "trended" down to 10% - gee, that's shocking. No kidding there's currently next to no chance to overtake a team who never seems to lose.

 

I'm the first to admit that if the Cubs continue to win every single home game they have left on their schedule, and continue to play around a .500 clip on the road, they'll be impossible to catch. But, if the Brewers continue to keep pace with the Cubs, something they've been able to do over the past 3+ weeks of the season when the Cubs have actually played their best baseball, they are undoubtedly the wild card team. I'm still holding out hope that as the Cubs move into the unkind part of their schedule that the Brewers can chip a game or two off the Cubs' lead and set things up for an interesting August/September. Something else to keep in mind that the two teams Milwaukee is chasing (Cubs & Cards) play each other a TON the rest of the season, and the Brewers play them both alot as well. If Milwaukee can end up with even slight winning records against both teams, there's no doubt that really increases their chances at overtaking one or both of them.

[bork]

they are still on pace to win 86 games....

They're actually on pace to win 88, if you take into account the home/road records. Amazing that they've almost played half of their road games already.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

How great would it be to have a Cubs vs Brewers playoff series?

[zzzmanwitz]

How great would it be to have a Cubs vs Brewers playoff series?

Either very good or very bad... depending on outcome.

[TooLiveBrew]

I look at it the same way as I look at that stupid win probability chart that gets spit out during the course of a game thread

 

Gee, what do you really think?

 

I appreciate the work people put into those charts, since it helps me understand just what a rare feat it is to come back from a 4-run defecit... or whatever.